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Top Cornerback Short List - 4/11/13

  • DVDA
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,334
Do this for the past 4-5 drafts and see how your rankings measure up with actual NFL production. That would be the best way to really evaluate your system.
fantastic work. Thanks for posting
  • Jd925
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,116
Originally posted by DVDA:
Do this for the past 4-5 drafts and see how your rankings measure up with actual NFL production. That would be the best way to really evaluate your system.

Good suggestion. I'm doing this for fun so spending the time to do that kind of backtesting will probably take the fun out of it at this time...... I know the model is really raw and incomplete, but hopefully it captures a little bit of my sentiments about productivity and gives a little bit of alpha vs the average.. (I'm probably at this point overemphasizing productivity vs measurables, but I used to focus on undervalued productive sleeper picks in the past and have had a decent level of success..) I'm also not so sure NFL nor College production as measured today is the best measure of impact. I use the stats that are available and know there is a correlation (like Pass Defended & Int stats) with impact, but better measures might be completion % against, first downs allowed, TDs allowed... all based on targets/opportunities and all adjusted for external factors such as QB pressure, bad throws, receiver drops etc. and under different defensive schemes (press/man/zone).. so do teams even really know how good their own players are? How good are teams in evaluating the success and impact of their own players and what statistics do they use? Those are some of things that I find interesting too...