MadDog's Big 254 Board April 11 Edition

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
MD,
Thanks again. Don't you think that rather than using the selections this year and exposing the players on the practice squad to other teams, a better alternative would be to trade out (and up)?

I think the team ends up with 10 selections, but wouldn't be surprised if it was 11 or 12. Could see the team trade out of 31 to a team jumping up for a QB and taking that team's number one in 2014 and a third rounder this year. The draft in 2014 should be stronger, so that might be an attractive offer to the team.

I thought this would be a great year to do something like this...and then the rumor mill started up with the 9ers will trade up gossip removing all doubt for me that we attempt to trade out of our picks, unless somebody nosedives and the niners have them at a much higher value. (i.e. Star drops to 20).

Okay, MD, I think we get only 5 picks, and burn the other 5 moving up IF INDICATED. We also get 3 comps(PK, and 2 BPAs, who knows what). But by the 5th pick, I truly think trent is done. He can always store picks for next yr or move up for next yr with our picks this yr. Just my gut, but will be interesting to see how it comes out. A lot, as you say, has a bearing on what different teams do, and my crystal ball has 3 or 4 of buff, raids, jax, jets, philly and cleveland make the cardinal sin of drafting with their hearts, not their heads in the first rd. Everyone that does that just helps our cause. Man is Thurs going to be entertaining. I am on record for two DLs at 31 and 34. If we move way up it is for vacarro, but i just don't think trent would do that. I do see us moving up whenever trent wants and burns draft picks if we want to go up in draft. I do not see us moving down. You have 10-12 pics with comps , I have 8 with comps. Remind me when you get proven right.

Yeah, I don't think there's a chance we take 12 players including comps. I might rather have a bad team's 2014 first than a good team's 2014 first and late third this year and there is no way a bad team will give up a 3rd and a future 1st for a late 1st/early 2nd pick. If a bad team offered their 2014 1st straight up for our 31st pick, that would be a great trade for us. Even if that team wins the championship (very unlikely for a bad team), we're in as good of shape having their 32nd pick + our first next year in a stronger draft class since we have plenty of additional picks to meet our needs this season. More realistically, that 2014 pick would turn into a top 15 pick with a chance of being a top 5-10 pick where we could get a huge difference maker in a strong draft.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Okay, MD, I think we get only 5 picks, and burn the other 5 moving up IF INDICATED. We also get 3 comps(PK, and 2 BPAs, who knows what). But by the 5th pick, I truly think trent is done. He can always store picks for next yr or move up for next yr with our picks this yr. Just my gut, but will be interesting to see how it comes out. A lot, as you say, has a bearing on what different teams do, and my crystal ball has 3 or 4 of buff, raids, jax, jets, philly and cleveland make the cardinal sin of drafting with their hearts, not their heads in the first rd. Everyone that does that just helps our cause. Man is Thurs going to be entertaining. I am on record for two DLs at 31 and 34. If we move way up it is for vacarro, but i just don't think trent would do that. I do see us moving up whenever trent wants and burns draft picks if we want to go up in draft. I do not see us moving down. You have 10-12 pics with comps , I have 8 with comps. Remind me when you get proven right.

I agree that I don't see Trent moving up dramatically in the first. I think if he plays his cards right, he might be best to load up on three or four second round selections where you can get a quality corner, safety, defensive lineman, and wide receiver/tight end. I love the second and third rounds in this draft a LOT. Pumped more for Friday night than Thursday.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Yeah, I don't think there's a chance we take 12 players including comps. I might rather have a bad team's 2014 first than a good team's 2014 first and late third this year and there is no way a bad team will give up a 3rd and a future 1st for a late 1st/early 2nd pick. If a bad team offered their 2014 1st straight up for our 31st pick, that would be a great trade for us. Even if that team wins the championship (very unlikely for a bad team), we're in as good of shape having their 32nd pick + our first next year in a stronger draft class since we have plenty of additional picks to meet our needs this season. More realistically, that 2014 pick would turn into a top 15 pick with a chance of being a top 5-10 pick where we could get a huge difference maker in a strong draft.

Agree with much of what you said, but disagree on compensation. In order to get that first rounder, a team would have to add extra compensation this year or next. For instance, let's say that Buffalo pulls a fast one on me and selects Austin at 8, then wants to jump back into the first for Nassib at 31. To go from 41 to 31, especially to draft a QB, the team is going to have to offer more compensation than just their future first rounder, unless we are accepting their 41st overall in a trade. Then, we simply pick up their third rounder this year, or second rounder in 2014. Baalke would know that the Bills would be targeting a QB, which automatically inflates the value for the pick.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
MD,
Thanks again. Don't you think that rather than using the selections this year and exposing the players on the practice squad to other teams, a better alternative would be to trade out (and up)?

I think the team ends up with 10 selections, but wouldn't be surprised if it was 11 or 12. Could see the team trade out of 31 to a team jumping up for a QB and taking that team's number one in 2014 and a third rounder this year. The draft in 2014 should be stronger, so that might be an attractive offer to the team.

Yeah, Baalke might just disappoint us all Thursday night with another day of waiting. Now that the webzone has narrowed down the choices to just 50 or so players for #31. Using your board, here's my attempt. Ten picks, early CB rather than a safety, late safety and Lattimore instead of traded out picks.

31 Tank Carradine/Jarvis Jones PR (pass rusher)
34 Zach Ertz TE
45 (trade up San Diego 61+93) Robert Alford/DJ Hayden CB
74 (trade down Kansas City for 96 and 99) 96 99=220
91 (trade up New England 99+173+180) Marcus Lattimore RB
93 traded
96 (acquired) Montori Hughes NT
99 (acquired and traded)
111 (trade up Miami 128+157) Da'Rick Rogers WR
131 Dallas Thomas OT comp - 23 -
173 traded
180 traded
237 Sean Renfree/Jeff Tuel QB
246 Glenn Foster DT/DE comp
252 Ray Polk FS (6-1, 219, 4.42 [3rd fastest FS]) comp

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Agree with much of what you said, but disagree on compensation. In order to get that first rounder, a team would have to add extra compensation this year or next. For instance, let's say that Buffalo pulls a fast one on me and selects Austin at 8, then wants to jump back into the first for Nassib at 31. To go from 41 to 31, especially to draft a QB, the team is going to have to offer more compensation than just their future first rounder, unless we are accepting their 41st overall in a trade. Then, we simply pick up their third rounder this year, or second rounder in 2014. Baalke would know that the Bills would be targeting a QB, which automatically inflates the value for the pick.

I don't agree that knowing someone is reaching for a QB automatically inflates the value of the pick that much. I think that the 31st pick is worth more than the 34th pick because it allows you to sign players for an extra year, but I don't think it suddenly makes our first pick more valuable than the Bills' 2014 first pick which also would get the extra year. I would be surprised if the Bills were willing to trade their first pick in 2014 straight up for our 31st pick, but I'd be delirious if they offered their 2nd round pick next year too.

I understand that knowing the pick will be a QB might give us some leverage with the extra year (since QB's get paid more), but with how bad the QB's are this year, I don't think that using the 31st pick to reach for a QB is that valuable and if I was a Bills fan, I would be furious if they gave up next year's first and second pick for a guy like Nassib (or if they picked him at #8, but that hasn't stopped some experts from mocking him there).

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I don't agree that knowing someone is reaching for a QB automatically inflates the value of the pick that much. I think that the 31st pick is worth more than the 34th pick because it allows you to sign players for an extra year, but I don't think it suddenly makes our first pick more valuable than the Bills' 2014 first pick which also would get the extra year. I would be surprised if the Bills were willing to trade their first pick in 2014 straight up for our 31st pick, but I'd be delirious if they offered their 2nd round pick next year too.

I understand that knowing the pick will be a QB might give us some leverage with the extra year (since QB's get paid more), but with how bad the QB's are this year, I don't think that using the 31st pick to reach for a QB is that valuable and if I was a Bills fan, I would be furious if they gave up next year's first and second pick for a guy like Nassib (or if they picked him at #8, but that hasn't stopped some experts from mocking him there).

Right now, I've got Nassib at 8. I think they want the player badly, and will take no chances that they can get him later in the draft.

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Yeah, Baalke might just disappoint us all Thursday night with another day of waiting. Now that the webzone has narrowed down the choices to just 50 or so players for #31. Using your board, here's my attempt. Ten picks, early CB rather than a safety, late safety and Lattimore instead of traded out picks.

31 Tank Carradine/Jarvis Jones PR (pass rusher)
34 Zach Ertz TE
45 (trade up San Diego 61+93) Robert Alford/DJ Hayden CB
74 (trade down Kansas City for 96 and 99) 96 99=220
91 (trade up New England 99+173+180) Marcus Lattimore RB
93 traded
96 (acquired) Montori Hughes NT
99 (acquired and traded)
111 (trade up Miami 128+157) Da'Rick Rogers WR
131 Dallas Thomas OT comp - 23 -
173 traded
180 traded
237 Sean Renfree/Jeff Tuel QB
246 Glenn Foster DT/DE comp
252 Ray Polk FS (6-1, 219, 4.42 [3rd fastest FS]) comp

Pinning your FS hopes on Polk is not the best move. Seen every game he played (I went to CU and am a long suffering buffs fan), he is athletic but has minimal football instincts. More of a special teamer at the NFL level.

Does anyone else see Eric Reid as a rich man's Taylor Mays? In what I've seen, he definitely struggles in coverage, makes the occasional big hits/whiffs, and clearly has pretty well built physique. In other words, I'm not a fan, although the physical tools are tempting.

Originally posted by 5280High:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Yeah, Baalke might just disappoint us all Thursday night with another day of waiting. Now that the webzone has narrowed down the choices to just 50 or so players for #31. Using your board, here's my attempt. Ten picks, early CB rather than a safety, late safety and Lattimore instead of traded out picks.

31 Tank Carradine/Jarvis Jones PR (pass rusher)
34 Zach Ertz TE
45 (trade up San Diego 61+93) Robert Alford/DJ Hayden CB
74 (trade down Kansas City for 96 and 99) 96 99=220
91 (trade up New England 99+173+180) Marcus Lattimore RB
93 traded
96 (acquired) Montori Hughes NT
99 (acquired and traded)
111 (trade up Miami 128+157) Da'Rick Rogers WR
131 Dallas Thomas OT comp - 23 -
173 traded
180 traded
237 Sean Renfree/Jeff Tuel QB
246 Glenn Foster DT/DE comp
252 Ray Polk FS (6-1, 219, 4.42 [3rd fastest FS]) comp

Pinning your FS hopes on Polk is not the best move. Seen every game he played (I went to CU and am a long suffering buffs fan), he is athletic but has minimal football instincts. More of a special teamer at the NFL level.

Polk is not the guy to start at FS. With Nnamdi on board, I suggest that Culliver will be the starting FS. Hayden/Alford will be the slot CB, probably replacing Rogers.