MadDog's Big 254 Board April 11 Edition

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Here are some notes that I think will shake up the draft in one week:

1.Could we see Justin Hunter leapfrog his teammate Patterson in the draft? I'd give it a 50-50 shot.
2. Imagine the bidding war at number five to the Lions for the rights to...Eric Fisher. I think the Eagles, and Chip Kelly, will see Lane Johnson as the more athletic, long term upside star...see note on Trent Williams. However, the Lions would probably unplug the phone, and run up to the podium with Fisher's name on the card.
3. Depending on Tank Carradine's workout tomorrow, which I think will be excellent, could he pass his teammate, Werner, in the draft? I also give this a 50-50 shot.
4. Will Jonathan Franklin be the first back taken over Eddie Lacy? Don't think so, but the gap appears to be very narrow.
5. Count me as shocked if the Jets don't pick one of three players at number 9: Mingo, Milliner or Austin. They might even be able to get two of them once the Revis deal is done.
6. Who is the shock 7-10 pick for 2013? It happens almost every year that someone "reaches" for a player in this slot. Got a feeling that Austin is the leading guy, which would be crazy stuff for a 170 pounder. However, since people are already talking about the potential for Austin as a top 10 pick, it would not be a shock anymore.
7. Jarvis Jones, to me, is more likely to be a second rounder than first rounder. I think he slips out of the first frame.
8. Etch in stone: Matt Barkley will be the fifth QB selected in the draft, after Smith, Manuel, Nassib, and Glennon.
9. Keenan Allen drops like a rock. Thinking he will be the 7th WR taken...if he is lucky.

Side note: The team(s) that pass on Sharrif Floyd are going to kick themselves for the next 10 years. He is the best player in this draft, and I'm not sure it is close. Knowing the Raiders luck, the Jaguars's front office will have a team of mules kick them in the head and dump the idea of Jordan at 2 and select Floyd. He is a 20 year old monster in the making.

Final note: Another player that is going to make GM's scratch their heads, and say, 'Why didn't we draft him?" is Stedman Bailey. Watch video highlights of West Virginia in 2012, and tell me who you see: Austin or Bailey. I see Bailey. I am not saying he will be the better pro, but history shows that teammates of the same position who are both drafted in the same year often track their college performances to the pros. That is good news for Justin Hunter and Stedman Bailey, who happened to score......25 TDs in 2012. 25 TDs for Bailey in one year. That is a crazy, crazy number. Someone smart is selecting this dude.

Hoping to reload the Big Board on this thread later today and post one final Big Board on Wednesday of next week. Cheers for now.

Fascinating stuff. Thanks for this update.

This! Really great insight especially for bloody beginners like me. Thanks for the work MadDog

If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 61, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

I could live with that, cheers Dude.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

Sounds reasonable to me, but I believe Baalke will try to maneuver around to get the athletes they believe are best fits. My hope is that they like guys in the 35 to 45 range so they can trade back a bit and still get their guys. I can't remember which year it was in the 80s but they kept trading back because their top guy was not well liked by other teams and they wound up with a couple of extra picks in the second and third rounds.

Found it--1988 they traded with the Raiders and picked up Dokie Williams, Daniel Stubbs (2nd R) and Barry Helton (4th R) for Scott Davis (1st rd draft pick).

That was quite a draft: Stubbs, Holt, Romanowski and Helton all helped the team win at least two Super Bowls. Let's channel that magic!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

I would be happy if it went down that way. I am a firm believer that the Niners have to focus on defense in this draft. I also think a pass rushing OLB would be great to grab ( Jamie Collins) at the end of the 2nd rd if he was somehow still there.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

MD, your analysis is strong. But I wonder, and hope they won't, whether the Niners will go all defense with the first three.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

I would be happy if it went down that way. I am a firm believer that the Niners have to focus on defense in this draft. I also think a pass rushing OLB would be great to grab ( Jamie Collins) at the end of the 2nd rd if he was somehow still there.

I'm hoping Cornelius Washington is still there at 74 or 93... I'd like to pick up a WR in the late 2nd.

Longest week ever, keep the commentary coming! Good stuff MD

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

My last mock had us taking Jesse at #34, trading with Buffalo from #31 to #41 and drafting DJ Hayden. The last few days of draft chatter have led me to believe Hayden isn't a reach at #31, so I'm less sold on trading back (although I still wouldn't be shocked to see us do it).

I agree 100% that we are starting this draft with CB and DL; been saying it for a while. I'm torn about #61 and #74. I've been thinking the team would want to snag their favorite TE first between Escobar, Kelce, and McDonald, and wait until #74 to take Thomas or Amerson or Rambo or Evans at FS.

But if you're right about Thomas and Swearinger being the targets, and right about them not lasting until #74, then I guess the team could wait on TE. Hopefully Kelce or Escobar is still on the board there.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If I was a betting man in this draft, i'd say this is the direction the team is headed in the first two days:
1. At 31, the highest rated corner on the board. This may be a Desmond Trufant, DJ Hayden, Jamar Taylor. I believe the team looks at Nnamdi and Rogers as one year guys, and with Culliver getting in trouble, and showing unreliablility at the most important moment of last season, a shift is needed sooner rather than later.
2. At 34, to me Jesse Williams makes a ton of sense for the team. He can either start right away at NT, or be a key guy who can play any position along the front, as he played the 34 DE and 34 NT role at Alabama. He was also versatile enough to be the lead blocker in goal line situations last season, and these qualities, I believe, will be attractive to Baalke and Harbaugh.
3. At 63, you can write in DJ Swearinger or Phillip Thomas. Both guys should be off the board soon after this selection and the value is right in this slot. Both guys would be expected to start from Day One

More later..interrupted for now.

I was putting together a mock right along these lines!

I also like your assessment of Stedman Bailey, one of my favorite WR in the draft. I may have to bump him into the 3rd round now though!

Thanks for all your hard work!

Will post a final board either late Wednesday or early Thursday. Still debating about 300 players for about 50 spots. Tough to know which direction teams are headed, what they value in a prospect, the medical history, and off the field issues that drive a player out of the draft.

Some things that may emerge that shock the casual draft fan:
1. If the Bills do not move the 8th pick, I could see them selecting Ryan Nassib. He is the second best QB on my board, played in NY state for college, and has his college coach at Buffalo.
2. While I see the Jets drafting Austin at 9 and Mingo at 13, it wouldn't shock to see them take Manuel at 13.
3. Medicals will play an enormous role on draft weekend. Hayden and Carradine may end up top 15 picks or late second rounders or lower if their medicals come out poorly. Terron Armstead may also drop back much lower if his back does not check out. John Boyett may sneak in the draft or go undrafted. So many variables with so many players.
4. I'd wouldn't be shocked to see the top three OT's off the board by the time the Eagles turn in their card at number four. The Lions are in a prime spot for either Fisher or Johnson if the Jags and Raiders select Jordan and Floyd.
5. Two really good players are going to fall into the laps of the Niners at 31 and 34. The bull rush of OL early should cause a hyperinflationary value of the next set of OL (Fluker, Pugh, Long), which pushes talented guys down the board.
6. I'd be surprised to see Warmack selected before Cooper.
7. The Chargers will be kicking themselves for the next 10 years if they select Fluker over Cooper or Warmack. Pick the best player, not the position.
8. The value of this draft is CB's in Rounds 2 and 3, TE's in Rounds 3 and 4, and WR's from Rounds 3-5. Take the top three WR's from the first round and match them with the top three WR's from the third round eight years from now. I don't think you will see much of a difference.
9. This CB class is absolutely brilliant. It is crazy that we could possibly see all of these CB's: Poyer, McFaddon, Webb on the board at number 73.
10. My favorite player projected not to be drafted: Kapron Lewis-Moore. Cheering him on.
11. My favorite overlooked WR: Stedman Bailey
12. My favorite overlooked RB: Rex Burkhead.
13. My favorite overlooked S: Cody Davis
14. We might see an overflow of special teamers on Day Three: Punters Jeff Locke, Ryan Allen; Kickers Dustin Hopkins, Caleb Sturgis, Quinn Sharp.
15. Have fun classifying Lawrence Okoye by school (there is none). I simply label him as ...........England.
16. TE class could see some pretty good undrafted free agents.
17. I'd be shocked to see a 4-3 defense select Manti Te'o. You want this guy in the middle of your defense as a team leader? Crazy talk. Stash him on a 34 defense next to a stud, veteran ILB leader and this makes sense.
18. The weakest position in this draft is center, and it is not close.
19. I know it may sound crazy, but I could see the team use nearly all their picks, and stash a ton on the practice squad. We have a ton of needs in the next few years (Starters at RB,FS, CB,SS,NT,DE,WR,C,K; Backups at ILB, TE, OLB). In other words, the game changes quickly and a players' shelf life is short. I have the team needing 9 new starters within the next two years).

More later. Cheers.

GOOOO OKOYE

MD,
Thanks again. Don't you think that rather than using the selections this year and exposing the players on the practice squad to other teams, a better alternative would be to trade out (and up)?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Will post a final board either late Wednesday or early Thursday. Still debating about 300 players for about 50 spots. Tough to know which direction teams are headed, what they value in a prospect, the medical history, and off the field issues that drive a player out of the draft.

Some things that may emerge that shock the casual draft fan:
1. If the Bills do not move the 8th pick, I could see them selecting Ryan Nassib. He is the second best QB on my board, played in NY state for college, and has his college coach at Buffalo.
2. While I see the Jets drafting Austin at 9 and Mingo at 13, it wouldn't shock to see them take Manuel at 13.
3. Medicals will play an enormous role on draft weekend. Hayden and Carradine may end up top 15 picks or late second rounders or lower if their medicals come out poorly. Terron Armstead may also drop back much lower if his back does not check out. John Boyett may sneak in the draft or go undrafted. So many variables with so many players.
4. I'd wouldn't be shocked to see the top three OT's off the board by the time the Eagles turn in their card at number four. The Lions are in a prime spot for either Fisher or Johnson if the Jags and Raiders select Jordan and Floyd.
5. Two really good players are going to fall into the laps of the Niners at 31 and 34. The bull rush of OL early should cause a hyperinflationary value of the next set of OL (Fluker, Pugh, Long), which pushes talented guys down the board.
6. I'd be surprised to see Warmack selected before Cooper.
7. The Chargers will be kicking themselves for the next 10 years if they select Fluker over Cooper or Warmack. Pick the best player, not the position.
8. The value of this draft is CB's in Rounds 2 and 3, TE's in Rounds 3 and 4, and WR's from Rounds 3-5. Take the top three WR's from the first round and match them with the top three WR's from the third round eight years from now. I don't think you will see much of a difference.
9. This CB class is absolutely brilliant. It is crazy that we could possibly see all of these CB's: Poyer, McFaddon, Webb on the board at number 73.
10. My favorite player projected not to be drafted: Kapron Lewis-Moore. Cheering him on.
11. My favorite overlooked WR: Stedman Bailey
12. My favorite overlooked RB: Rex Burkhead.
13. My favorite overlooked S: Cody Davis
14. We might see an overflow of special teamers on Day Three: Punters Jeff Locke, Ryan Allen; Kickers Dustin Hopkins, Caleb Sturgis, Quinn Sharp.
15. Have fun classifying Lawrence Okoye by school (there is none). I simply label him as ...........England.
16. TE class could see some pretty good undrafted free agents.
17. I'd be shocked to see a 4-3 defense select Manti Te'o. You want this guy in the middle of your defense as a team leader? Crazy talk. Stash him on a 34 defense next to a stud, veteran ILB leader and this makes sense.
18. The weakest position in this draft is center, and it is not close.
19. I know it may sound crazy, but I could see the team use nearly all their picks, and stash a ton on the practice squad. We have a ton of needs in the next few years (Starters at RB,FS, CB,SS,NT,DE,WR,C,K; Backups at ILB, TE, OLB). In other words, the game changes quickly and a players' shelf life is short. I have the team needing 9 new starters within the next two years).

More later. Cheers.

Love your work bro. And appreciate the insider perspectives. The bolded has been my point all along as well...I had us needing 8 starting-caliber players (some start this year and others train for a year or two). I look forward to your update! And thank you...

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
MD,
Thanks again. Don't you think that rather than using the selections this year and exposing the players on the practice squad to other teams, a better alternative would be to trade out (and up)?

I think the team ends up with 10 selections, but wouldn't be surprised if it was 11 or 12. Could see the team trade out of 31 to a team jumping up for a QB and taking that team's number one in 2014 and a third rounder this year. The draft in 2014 should be stronger, so that might be an attractive offer to the team.