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Finding the next Justin Smith - Alex Okafor?

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Justin doesn't need replacing. Rather than selecting his replacement this year, the smarter route would be to trade out that selection into a higher pick in 2014.

He's only got 1 more year on contract, and retirement is on his radar.

"I'm not going to retire after this year," Smith said. "I would like to come back and try to get here (theSuper Bowl) again. I realize my career is definitely winding down. I'm not saying I'm going to play another eight years or something like that. I want to play at a high level."
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000133210/article/justin-smith-says-triceps-50-percent-torn-he-wont-retire

We need to develop a replacement now. It will take at least a year or two before ANY rookie is capable of performing at Justin's level.
I think you're suffering the Webzone Super Bowl Retinal Burn. It involves believing that having a replacement for Justin in 2013 will make up for his injury in 2012.

Or, having a solid young backup might serve useful in the event he gets injured in 2013. Addressing the issue of Smith not having a legitimate backup shouldn't be very controversial.
The controversy is at what cost. By your logic, don't the Niners need a solid young backup for Willis and Bowman and Aldon Smith? What about solid young backups for Kaep and VD?

If you seriously can't see the difference between drafting a backup for Justin Smith (who's closing in on the end of his career and only signed through 2013) and doing so for Willis, Bowman, Aldon, Kap, etc. (all much younger, and signed for longer or will be extended soon), than there's nothing I can do for you.

Btw, I'm not saying we absolutely need to use a high pick on a replacement for Justin...just that we need one. If the right guy is there at #31 or #34, they should make the pick...if they feel a corner or safety is a better selection that high, I'm cool with that too. I'm just saying, it's clear to me we need to think about a long-term replacement AND a short-term rotational solution for Justin.

It's good that I'm not asking you to do anything for me. If you're not asserting the need only "to think about" a long-term replacement and a short-term rotational solution (Have you heard of Dorsey?), then my job is done. Think about it in relation to the many other backup situations that would be useful to have.

I could be wrong, but Dorsey (who I have heard of, interestingly enough) was signed more to be a backup NT and not necessarily/primarily Justin's backup at the under-tackle position. And if that's the case, it's more critical for Dorsey to focus on that role given Ian Williams complete lack of NFL experience.

However, if the FO sees Dorsey as Justin's main backup, I agree that that particular issue is solved for 2013. That would mean a NT would be the more critical of the two positions to address. Bottom line, neither you nor I know for sure what they plan to do with Dorsey...I just won't pretend that I know for sure.
  • nj9er
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  • Posts: 2,154
This draft is gonna all be about value and best player on the board. Lot of talk about Justin Smiths replacement but forget Justin is on the team still and we picked up Dorsey. If the best player is a DL and can step in similar to what Aldon did his rookie year then we draft him. Otherwise I see us just picking the best player regardless of position unless its QB then we will trade out and take more pics. A good cover corner will cover for poor line play and vice versa and a WR who can score helps the defense the most. We're so stacked so just like last years draft it's all gravy.

Keep in mind we only really need to draft about 8 players and if we play it smart we use the rest of the pics to just keep adding pics to 2015 and 2016 we will need them when Kaep and Crabs need to be extended and we have to replace Carlos Rodgers, J Smith, Goodwin, Gore, Namdi for sure over the next 2 to 3 season.
Yes we need to find a replacement, but i don't know if this kid is it. He's more of a speed rusher. Justin game has always been power which is good for us because he shouldn't lose that any time soon. We need to address the hole at Nose, Saftey, Tightend, than we can look for a replacement for justin and someone to give him a break. We need to find a power type player to fill the hole justin will leave.
Not sure about him everything I've read saying he's a 4-3 DE N yea we may run a hybrid defense but I just believe u still need people that fit ur mold ...I thought of Devin Taylor also but everything I've read screams NO he never took advantage of his playing time when others went on injury ...
Originally posted by nj9er:
This draft is gonna all be about value and best player on the board. Lot of talk about Justin Smiths replacement but forget Justin is on the team still and we picked up Dorsey. If the best player is a DL and can step in similar to what Aldon did his rookie year then we draft him. Otherwise I see us just picking the best player regardless of position unless its QB then we will trade out and take more pics. A good cover corner will cover for poor line play and vice versa and a WR who can score helps the defense the most. We're so stacked so just like last years draft it's all gravy.

Keep in mind we only really need to draft about 8 players and if we play it smart we use the rest of the pics to just keep adding pics to 2015 and 2016 we will need them when Kaep and Crabs need to be extended and we have to replace Carlos Rodgers, J Smith, Goodwin, Gore, Namdi for sure over the next 2 to 3 season.

Can't see us taking a corner as we are already stacked in that position
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
You're confused. I haven't stated any man crush, or a WR with the first pick. "We all know ..."? When I hear this line, it means, "I want to believe ..." Your apology would be appreciated.

Yeah, this is more evidence that the Webzone Super Bowl Retinal Burn affects the thought process and memory. Also, I don't think posters here are idiots, just overreacting to Justin's injury. Like suddenly he's become grandpa senile rather than remaining the best player on the Niners' team. And many are ready to put him out to pasture. Or it's, "No we just want a good rotational guy." How high will Baalke have to pick to get someone better than Dorsey? Is that worth it for a backup role?

No.

While you haven't used the word man crush on player X, in a couple of posts, one on the subject of safety, you didn't think we needed to pick one in the first cause we signed Dahl and that we should pick Hunter. Same thing in another thread similar to this but on DL in genral, same thing, we signed Dorsey so we don't need to get a DL and should use the pick on a wr and brought up Hunter again. So thought you didn't say man crush, your mention of him twice looks like you want him and a wr more than others. Seems like a man crush when you look at it.

When I think of backup I think of someone not even playing. While I think the niners are going bpa, I also think they are going Defense whether it be safety or DL. A lot of scouts and prognosticators rate the safety and DT/DL as the strongest in the draft (A grade according to them.) WR is rated as C+, B- at best. So what are the chances we get the most bang for the buck-especially at a need position.

Look at Baalke's history, he went for BPA and need according to the niners draft board. We needed OL he went OL, we needed rush lb and QB, he went went that way with the BPA (smart enough not to push for a QB with the first pick but smart enough to move up to take Kaep), we needed a wr he picked who he thought was BPA (although jury is still out). Then in the 2nd, didn't have a real need but BPA in LMJ. The only other question mark is the Taylor Mays pick, who we all know by now that it was only because Singletary's tantrum. Wonder who would have taken if Mike kept his mouth shut and let the pro personnel dept handle it.

Dorsey was miss used, but we don't know if he is going to work out, and competition is always a good thing. For all you know the pick might be better than Dorsey. Remind me again what is the length of Dorsey's contract? A DL won't sit but play as part of the rotation. You may not believe in a rotation, but Walsh used it and as I said before, kept the D fresh late in the season and into the playoffs. Though we have Ian and Dobbs, there is no guarentee that they are the answer, remember they were UDFA signing. If you can get a player that is going to play and got some game, but don't have to burden him (like Aldon's first sason), you allow the player to develope and improve and learn from a stud like Justin. No one is rushing Justin, but even Justin has said maybe 2-3 years more. You want him around longer or any other player you get people that will help in the rotation like Gore is helped by Hunter and LMJ.

Again another Walsh philosophy, Offense you can scheme with lack of talent, but on D, you need talent to make it happen. Look at what happen when that talent got hurt (Aldon and Justin). This is football it happens, we are on a SB run this year and Chance favors the prepared mind.
Originally posted by smithc28:
Originally posted by nj9er:
This draft is gonna all be about value and best player on the board. Lot of talk about Justin Smiths replacement but forget Justin is on the team still and we picked up Dorsey. If the best player is a DL and can step in similar to what Aldon did his rookie year then we draft him. Otherwise I see us just picking the best player regardless of position unless its QB then we will trade out and take more pics. A good cover corner will cover for poor line play and vice versa and a WR who can score helps the defense the most. We're so stacked so just like last years draft it's all gravy.

Keep in mind we only really need to draft about 8 players and if we play it smart we use the rest of the pics to just keep adding pics to 2015 and 2016 we will need them when Kaep and Crabs need to be extended and we have to replace Carlos Rodgers, J Smith, Goodwin, Gore, Namdi for sure over the next 2 to 3 season.

Can't see us taking a corner as we are already stacked in that position


True, but who knows what the coaches are thinking, maybe move Culliver to Safety or maybe Rogers or NA don't pan out. But against certain passing teams and on passing downs, putting your best coverage people out their can't hurt, including another top notch corner if one can be had. For example (doubt if it'll happen though, if we managed to get vacarro and amerson. In dime packages, Vacarro and Culliver on the back end with NA, Rodgers, Brown and Amerson (providing the rookies are able of course)?
I think this dude is going to be star. I've been very high on him since january.I love this kids power, and explosiveness off the line.He drives the o line back every time and really disrupts the rythum of the line. Great prospect...would love to see us grab him.
  • RedAu
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Niner D allowed 6 TDs in first 13 games and 19 TDs in final 6. What happened? Injuries to our D-Hogs! Now we lost a starter and a top backup. We need more D-Hogs! Not just J. Smith heir but quality depth. Hopefully we use 2-3 of our top 3 picks on D-Hogs.
Originally posted by TheGoldDiggerrrr:
Yes we need to find a replacement, but i don't know if this kid is it. He's more of a speed rusher. Justin game has always been power which is good for us because he shouldn't lose that any time soon. We need to address the hole at Nose, Saftey, Tightend, than we can look for a replacement for justin and someone to give him a break. We need to find a power type player to fill the hole justin will leave.

Actually, Okafor usually plays the strong side DE spot because he isn't a speed rusher. He is an edge rusher, which isn't the same thing. He can rush outside, inside, or bull-rush straight to the QB.

He does not yet posses the power to fight through constant double teams (which is what we need Justin's replacement to do). He will also give up some ground if you run the ball right at him. But the technique is there and at 6'5", he should be able to gain 15-20 lbs to put him in the same weight class as RayMac and Justin.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Actually, Okafor usually plays the strong side DE spot because he isn't a speed rusher. He is an edge rusher, which isn't the same thing. He can rush outside, inside, or bull-rush straight to the QB.

He does not yet posses the power to fight through constant double teams (which is what we need Justin's replacement to do). He will also give up some ground if you run the ball right at him. But the technique is there and at 6'5", he should be able to gain 15-20 lbs to put him in the same weight class as RayMac and Justin.

Yeah, well I have no illusions that a Justin v2 is not perfect coming outta the gate. One must be developed through time. That's why it can be very tricky when selecting a young kid to mold.

( I know you were not talking to me.. just had the impulse to respond with something likely obvious to most and likely you as well)
  • TX9R
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Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by TX9R:
Watched every game he played and I routinely hype Texas guys, was touting Vacarro last year before anyone. That being said Okafor was inconsistent and largely disaapointing to Horns fans over his career based on what his potential was. Frankly, we haven't put out a good non-secondary prospect since Muschamp left. I wouldn't spend my high picks on Okafor.

Really?

54 tackles and 12.5 sacks as a senior isn't enough to make Texas fans happy (50 tackles / 7 sacks as a junior)? That's very good production for a DE. Pass rushers often have inconsistent production when it comes to stats. A lot depends on the game plan from week to week and what your opponent is doing on offense. Just look at Aldon Smith, he was wildly inconsistent this year in terms of stats.

What is it that you don't like about him?

Stats don't tell the story. You know 4.5 of those sacks came in the bowl game right? Over half his total tackles were accumulated in 3 games against some pretty lousy teams. He may well end up a good player when he gets some better coaching, but I live in Austin and he is widely considered a dissapointment.
Originally posted by TX9R:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by TX9R:
Watched every game he played and I routinely hype Texas guys, was touting Vacarro last year before anyone. That being said Okafor was inconsistent and largely disaapointing to Horns fans over his career based on what his potential was. Frankly, we haven't put out a good non-secondary prospect since Muschamp left. I wouldn't spend my high picks on Okafor.

Really?

54 tackles and 12.5 sacks as a senior isn't enough to make Texas fans happy (50 tackles / 7 sacks as a junior)? That's very good production for a DE. Pass rushers often have inconsistent production when it comes to stats. A lot depends on the game plan from week to week and what your opponent is doing on offense. Just look at Aldon Smith, he was wildly inconsistent this year in terms of stats.

What is it that you don't like about him?

Stats don't tell the story. You know 4.5 of those sacks came in the bowl game right? Over half his total tackles were accumulated in 3 games against some pretty lousy teams. He may well end up a good player when he gets some better coaching, but I live in Austin and he is widely considered a dissapointment.

Couldn't the same be said for Sam Acho, he had 8 sacks his senior year (2010) but 3 of them came against Florida Atlantic? Acho is now starting in AZ and had a solid year in 2012; not just because they went to UT, but they strike me as very similar players, with similar skill-sets and college production (though Okafor was slightly more productive).
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Apr 12, 2013 at 10:49 AM ]
Originally posted by TX9R:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by TX9R:
Watched every game he played and I routinely hype Texas guys, was touting Vacarro last year before anyone. That being said Okafor was inconsistent and largely disaapointing to Horns fans over his career based on what his potential was. Frankly, we haven't put out a good non-secondary prospect since Muschamp left. I wouldn't spend my high picks on Okafor.

Really?

54 tackles and 12.5 sacks as a senior isn't enough to make Texas fans happy (50 tackles / 7 sacks as a junior)? That's very good production for a DE. Pass rushers often have inconsistent production when it comes to stats. A lot depends on the game plan from week to week and what your opponent is doing on offense. Just look at Aldon Smith, he was wildly inconsistent this year in terms of stats.

What is it that you don't like about him?

Stats don't tell the story. You know 4.5 of those sacks came in the bowl game right? Over half his total tackles were accumulated in 3 games against some pretty lousy teams. He may well end up a good player when he gets some better coaching, but I live in Austin and he is widely considered a dissapointment.

I won't pretend to know more about Okafor than someone who watched him closely all season. But I agree, stats don't tell the whole story. I did see him play against Oregon State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. To me, he looked solid to outstanding in those games. Even when he didn't get the stats, he's still creating havoc in the backfield.

I did know that 4.5 sacks were against Oregon State in the bowl game (impressive considering OSU is a good team). But even 8 regular season sacks is good. Look at Bjoern Werner (probably a top 10 pick).... he had 13 sacks, but 4 came in the season opener against Murray State.

For reference, Datone Jones had 5, Sheldon Richardson had 4, Tank Carradine had 11, and Margus Hunt had 6.
  • TX9R
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Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Couldn't the same be said for Sam Acho, he had 8 sacks his senior year (2010) but 3 of them came against Florida Atlantic? Acho is now starting in AZ and had a solid year in 2012; not just because they went to UT, but they strike me as very similar players, with similar skill-sets and college production (though Okafor was slightly more productive).

Acho over his career was more consistent than Okafor regardless of sacks, most of which went to Orakpo, then Kindle. I thought Acho would be a decent player in the NFL but I didn't think he would play as well as he did last year right off the bat. I just never saw the same motor with Okafor as a guy like Acho. Again it's highly possible he is just a victim of poor scheme as the entire Texas defense outside Vacarro was a huge disappointment last year.