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How many open roster slots for rookies?

Reading through Cam Iman's recent article, I started to consider how many rookies actually could make the roster? We have 14 picks, how many roster spots need to be filled or upgraded?

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2013/03/25/position-by-position-look-as-roster-vacancies-filling-up-fast/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+49ersHotRead+%2849ers+Hot+Read%29

Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick, Scott Tolzien, __________rookie
3/1 vacancy = 33% need

Running back: Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Anthony Dixon, Jewel Hampton
5/2 possible upgrades = 40% need

Fullback: Bruce Miller, Anthony Dixon, Will Tukuafu,
2/1 possible upgrades = 50% need

Wide receiver: Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Kyle Williams, A.J. Jenkins, Ricardo Lockette, Chad Hall, Marlon Moore, Joe Hastings
9/5 possible upgrades = 56% need

Tight end: Vernon Davis, Garrett Celek, Demarcus Dobbs
3/2 upgrades = 67% need

Offensive line: LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Jonathan Goodwin, RG Alex Boone, RT Anthony Davis, G/C Daniel Kilgore, G Joe Looney, T Kenny Wiggins, G Al Netter, G Wayne Tribue
OT: 4/1 (counting Boone at OT) = 25% need
OG/C: 6/2 = 33% need

Defensive line: DT Justin Smith, DT Ray McDonald, DL Glenn Dorsey,NT Ian Williams, DT Demarcus Dobbs, DL Will Tukuafu, DT Tony Jerod-Eddie, DT Lamar Divens
NT: 2/2 upgrades = 100% need
DE: 6/4 upgrades = 67% need

Outside linebacker: Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Parys Haralson, Cam Johnson, Darius Fleming
5/3 upgrades = 60% need

Inside linebacker: Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dan Skuta, Michael Wilhoite, Nate Stupar
5/2 upgrades = 40% need

Cornerbacker: Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers, Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox, Tramaine Brock
5/3 upgrades = 60% need

Safety: Donte Whitner, Craig Dahl, C.J. Spillman, Darcel McBath, Trenton Robinson, Michael Thomas
FS 4/3 = 75% need
SS 2/2 = 100% need

Kicker: Phil Dawson

Punter: Andy Lee

Long snapper: Brian Jennings

Kickoff returner: LaMichael James, Kendall Hunter, Kyle Williams, A.J. Jenkins, Chad Hall, Joe Hastings

Punt returner: Kyle Williams, LaMichael James, Marlon Moore, Ricardo Lockette, Chad Hall, A.J. Jenkins


Based on my quick count, that is 65 slots to take to training camp
this is an extremely un-scientific process by which I considered how many slots were mentioned in Iman's article, and then speculated how many of those positions need to be upgraded IMHO.

The stats break down as such:
total projected slots / total slots that should be upgraded = % of the slots that are projected to be available for competition to a rookie or Vet FA

SS 2/2 = 100%
NT 3/2 = 67%
FS 4/3 =75%
TE 3/2 =67%
DE 6/4 =67%
OLB 5/3 =60%
CB 5/3 =60%
WR 9/5 =56%
FB 2/1 =50%
RB 5/2 =40%
ILB 5/2 =40%
OG 6/2 =33%
QB 3/1 =33%
OT 4/1 =25%

I am counting 62 total slots and 33 need to be upgraded. Assuming that most late round rookies probably wont be able to compete with seasoned veterans on a SB team, that still provides a lot of opportunities for a rookie to "challenge a man for his job" as Coach H likes to say.
[ Edited by Butter on Mar 25, 2013 at 3:06 PM ]
Did we go to training camp with 90 something last year? My numbers may be way off though.
Considering Dorsey's contract, I'd say he will be a major contributor if not starter along the D-line.

Also, your percentages don't really make sense. I think it's more telling to show how many holes and maybe a weighting on the need of those holes.

So FS would be a hole, but would rank #1 as we really don't have a starter at that position.
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Considering Dorsey's contract, I'd say he will be a major contributor if not starter along the D-line.

Also, your percentages don't really make sense. I think it's more telling to show how many holes and maybe a weighting on the need of those holes.

So FS would be a hole, but would rank #1 as we really don't have a starter at that position.

As I stated, this about as un-quantified as it gets. I literally put this together in about 5 minutes. It is extremely subjective. Dorsey is a perfect example of the subjectivity. Personally, I think he will be a terrible in the 3-4 defense. He should be in the 4-3 no question in my mind. Maybe in the nickle he will be very good, or even as a 1 gap NT?

Ultimately, positions like the QB or TE should be weighted because of their importance. However, for a 5 minute effort, I think it does get us into the ball park. NT, both safety spots, TE, DE, OLB, those are all positions that need to be upgraded IMHO.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,722
Originally posted by Butter:
As I stated, this about as un-quantified as it gets. I literally put this together in about 5 minutes. It is extremely subjective. Dorsey is a perfect example of the subjectivity. Personally, I think he will be a terrible in the 3-4 defense. He should be in the 4-3 no question in my mind. Maybe in the nickle he will be very good, or even as a 1 gap NT?

Ultimately, positions like the QB or TE should be weighted because of their importance. However, for a 5 minute effort, I think it does get us into the ball park. NT, both safety spots, TE, DE, OLB, those are all positions that need to be upgraded IMHO.

It might be intriguing to figure out the percentages. Maybe, you should take a bit more time and redo it.

As it stands, it confuses me. I do understand that confusing me is not a difficult task, but still....
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by Butter:
As I stated, this about as un-quantified as it gets. I literally put this together in about 5 minutes. It is extremely subjective. Dorsey is a perfect example of the subjectivity. Personally, I think he will be a terrible in the 3-4 defense. He should be in the 4-3 no question in my mind. Maybe in the nickle he will be very good, or even as a 1 gap NT?

Ultimately, positions like the QB or TE should be weighted because of their importance. However, for a 5 minute effort, I think it does get us into the ball park. NT, both safety spots, TE, DE, OLB, those are all positions that need to be upgraded IMHO.

It might be intriguing to figure out the percentages. Maybe, you should take a bit more time and redo it.

As it stands, it confuses me. I do understand that confusing me is not a difficult task, but still....

Ultimately, its completely speculative because it depends on how the individual positions are ranked. Fullbacks will never be ranked as high as a QB. Also, the other variable that is unknown is how many roster spots the team plans to commit to each position.

For example, if the Niners decide to carry 6 WR, and fans arbitrarily decide that four out of those 6 WR need to be replace or upgraded, you'd need to upgrade 67% of the WR core. Another example is the NT spot. Let's assume that the Niners decide they are going to plan to carry 3 NT. The currently have Dorsey and Williams. In my estimation, they could easily upgrade 2 out of those 3 NT spots, so once again, 67% of the NT spots could likely be available for upgrade. That could be done by drafting a NT, or signing a better option in FA.

I'll be honest, I am by NO means a statistician. But I'll try to clean up the post a bit though.
As I've been saying for awhile, I wouldn't be shocked if 8-9 rookies ended up on this roster when all is said and done.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
As I've been saying for awhile, I wouldn't be shocked if 8-9 rookies ended up on this roster when all is said and done.


That sounds about right to me.