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New draft chart and its effect on 49er mocks

I noticed a lot of mocks here are still using the old 90's era chart for valuing draft picks. There is a an updated chart that Sando from espn wrote about a few days ago http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/95011/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart


Why does this matter to the 49ers mock drafts? The FO is one of the league leaders in modern FO analytics usage. This means they value first rounders less than teams using the old chart (which is almost completely arbitrary, btw) and value 2nd and 3rd rounders much, much more. If you want your mock w/trades to be more accurate, you should probably trade our 1st down to pick up more picks and you should probably not trade away our 2nd or 3rds.


You never know whats going to happen since its all probability based, however currently there is a trade arbitrage between the teams on the old charts and the teams using the new charts. I expect the FO to continue to take advantage of this arbitrage and pick up more picks, rather than funnel them into a few high picks.
Originally posted by nannite:
I noticed a lot of mocks here are still using the old 90's era chart for valuing draft picks. There is a an updated chart that Sando from espn wrote about a few days ago http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/95011/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart


Why does this matter to the 49ers mock drafts? The FO is one of the league leaders in modern FO analytics usage. This means they value first rounders less than teams using the old chart (which is almost completely arbitrary, btw) and value 2nd and 3rd rounders much, much more. If you want your mock w/trades to be more accurate, you should probably trade our 1st down to pick up more picks and you should probably not trade away our 2nd or 3rds.


You never know whats going to happen since its all probability based, however currently there is a trade arbitrage between the teams on the old charts and the teams using the new charts. I expect the FO to continue to take advantage of this arbitrage and pick up more picks, rather than funnel them into a few high picks.

I have no doubt the new chart is smarter, and I'm sure teams are starting to look at it, but I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that suddenly the 49ers will definitely trade down from #31. First of all because #31 is practically a 2nd rounder for the purposes of this chart. Second of all because I think the 49ers might want to take their favorite falling prospect in round 1 before going home for the day. The top of round 2 can be a little chaotic.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I have no doubt the new chart is smarter, and I'm sure teams are starting to look at it, but I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that suddenly the 49ers will definitely trade down from #31. First of all because #31 is practically a 2nd rounder for the purposes of this chart. Second of all because I think the 49ers might want to take their favorite falling prospect in round 1 before going home for the day. The top of round 2 can be a little chaotic.

You could trade 2 picks to move up to the 20th slot to pick up a falling player or you could pick up 2 picks to move down to the 40th pick and pick up a player that is very close in value.

3 picks vs 1. On a flatter value chart, where teams still overvalue early picks, I think that scenario is more likely to happen.

Nothing I'm saying is definite, like I said its all probability based, so they could very well move up to 20 if its a good move. But its more probable that they trade down.
Ii could see buffalo 41 and 105 up to 34 for a QB or Miami for RB or CB picks 54 and 77 I see the Niners holding on to 31 unless it a 1st round pick 2014 and a 3rd 2013
We have 14 picks already. And, the FO likes first round players. More likely we will stand pat, make a few smallish moves, and try to trade a couple of picks for 2014 picks.
By just looking at the Meers chart ... it looks like complete garbage

These are the types of trades it says make sense:

SF 1-31 and 2-34
for
PHI 1-4

or

SF 1-31 and 2-61
for
ARI 1-7

The old chart is fine ... most teams had adjusted to it by now, and most draft trades usually fall in line with its values.
Originally posted by amg1713:
By just looking at the Meers chart ... it looks like complete garbage

These are the types of trades it says make sense:

SF 1-31 and 2-34
for
PHI 1-4

or

SF 1-31 and 2-61
for
ARI 1-7

The old chart is fine ... most teams had adjusted to it by now, and most draft trades usually fall in line with its values.

The new chart makes sense when its Baalke .

In fairness a pick is worth what someone is willing to pay and the needs of the selling team. Watch Baalke pull off some magic
All draft value charts seem very arbitrary to me. Some years there are a few players that stand out and are obviously going to be picked first. In those drafts, the points used in the current system make sense (sort of). Especially when a "Can't miss" QB is at the top (and even then.... JaMarcus Russel, Ryan Leaf, etc.)

Other years, like this one, there are few concensus selections - the mock drafts are all over the place. Basing possible trades on those same inflated values for the first picks doesn't seem as realistic.

The new board is probably a bit more realistic, but saying it's going to be used in any way, shape, or form. is probably a stretch.
Originally posted by amg1713:
By just looking at the Meers chart ... it looks like complete garbage

These are the types of trades it says make sense:

SF 1-31 and 2-34
for
PHI 1-4

or

SF 1-31 and 2-61
for
ARI 1-7

The old chart is fine ... most teams had adjusted to it by now, and most draft trades usually fall in line with its values.

But you think Raider's 1-3 is worth more than all our picks put together??? That is what the old chart gives you ...

This guy doesn't like either (see link below) the question is .... what does the NFL teams collectively think?



http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/03/offered-for-consideration-yet-another-theory-of-draft-pick-value/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=offered-for-consideration-yet-another-theory-of-draft-pick-value
Originally posted by OldJoe:
But you think Raider's 1-3 is worth more than all our picks put together??? That is what the old chart gives you ...

This guy doesn't like either (see link below) the question is .... what does the NFL teams collectively think?



http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/03/offered-for-consideration-yet-another-theory-of-draft-pick-value/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=offered-for-consideration-yet-another-theory-of-draft-pick-value

No, the old chart is obviously a bit too top heavy, but getting 13 for 31 + 34 makes a hell of a lot more sense than getting the 4th overall pick for those 2 picks. The difference between 4 and 13, in a good draft, is the difference, between an elite prospect and a very good prospect.

Examples:

2012 4-Matt Kalil / 13-Michael Floyd
2011 4-AJ Green / 13-Nick Fairley