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With the 31st pick,

With the 31st pick,

Originally posted by blm7754:
Anybody who thinks taking a safety in the 1st round is a good idea is a fool. Safety is one of those lower value positions.... like TE, ILB, OG, K. Aside from the rare athlete (Willis, VD, etc) these are not good value picks in the 1st round because there are so many guys out there that can play those positions well. It is far harder to find good DL, OT, QB, CB, etc. That's why you draft those positions early, cause if you wait you may not be able to find someone thats any good.

DL at 31. Period.

CB, WR, or maybe another DL at 34.

Ok, 61 might be a good place to take a safety.

Yes because DL in the first is such a guarantee

Mcgrew.... Balmer...

And before you say "well this management is different", I'll introduce you to A.J Jenkins who did absolutely nothing for us in his first year. Not saying he will not be good but we are talking about the difference between a BACK UP Defensive lineman or a STARTING Safety at 31.... hmmmm..

Especially DE in a 3-4.. Ray Mac was a 4th round pick if I'm not mistaken and is VERY serviceable as a starter.. the draft is hit or miss and we could go either way..especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks
BPA, if all things being equal, which they won't be,
1) DL
2) Safety or TE (BPA)
3) Whatever position is not taken with the 2nd pick
4) CB
5) WR

A TE is more valuable than a wr right now and in our scheme where the #2 TE plays 51% of the snaps. The third wr is not going to get that much playing time.
Plus many are clamouring for a big target. Also, look at the past 2-3 drafts and look how many receivers had good years that were taken within the top 36, especially if they were penciled in as a starter from day 1. Then look how many wr suceeded if chosen from picks 25 to 32. Odds are not good. Plus they need time to develope. On top of that we haven't had great wr picks in this dacade, yes new regime managing out affairs, but even then, the jury is still out.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Anybody who thinks taking a safety in the 1st round is a good idea is a fool. Safety is one of those lower value positions.... like TE, ILB, OG, K. Aside from the rare athlete (Willis, VD, etc) these are not good value picks in the 1st round because there are so many guys out there that can play those positions well. It is far harder to find good DL, OT, QB, CB, etc. That's why you draft those positions early, cause if you wait you may not be able to find someone thats any good.

DL at 31. Period.

CB, WR, or maybe another DL at 34.

Ok, 61 might be a good place to take a safety.

Approve of this message. Wouldn't say they were foolish though
[ Edited by Pillbusta on Mar 22, 2013 at 2:09 PM ]
Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
Originally posted by NinerFan408:
BPA BPA BPA

BPA between those 2 and BPA overall are 2 very different things




  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,158
Never heard of them.

At least, you should give us their complete names.

What positions do they play?
Originally posted by Sims84:
Yes because DL in the first is such a guarantee

Mcgrew.... Balmer...

And before you say "well this management is different", I'll introduce you to A.J Jenkins who did absolutely nothing for us in his first year. Not saying he will not be good but we are talking about the difference between a BACK UP Defensive lineman or a STARTING Safety at 31.... hmmmm..

Especially DE in a 3-4.. Ray Mac was a 4th round pick if I'm not mistaken and is VERY serviceable as a starter.. the draft is hit or miss and we could go either way..especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks

You are right, its a hit or miss that part of the round, but that is true of all positions. There are also big fishes in the later round to, Montana, Eric Wright, M Carter, Carlton Williamson. Although I will say that the Jury is still out on Jenkins, it took Crabtree years, a top selection to finally reach his potential. Still, It depends who is availble. It is not just a matter of management is different, but coaches, many of our players are actually part of the previous regime, took the coaches to make it gell. However, Balmer, is one of those reasons why you don't pick a person with one suddenly good season. You try to look at people with a body of work, if they drop off a little (aldon), then why? Injury? Then you see how they fair at the all star games, does it match the body of work? Finally it is reinforced by the combine and prodays. BPA


Another thing, everyone is familiar with what Walsh said, for D you need talented people to make it happen. On offense, you can scheme to make it happen. So
Ertz
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by NYCNINER:
Originally posted by NeeJ49er:
the 49ers select Reggie McGrew, or wait no ..Rashaun Woods ....ummm ...no , Jim Druckenmiller ...ok ...ummm, let me think ...Dana Hall

All good selections but clearly the choice is either Kwame Harris or Kentwan Balmer...

And the problem with Dexter Carter is...?

Lets take the best corner available in Mike Rumph!
Originally posted by Sims84:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Anybody who thinks taking a safety in the 1st round is a good idea is a fool. Safety is one of those lower value positions.... like TE, ILB, OG, K. Aside from the rare athlete (Willis, VD, etc) these are not good value picks in the 1st round because there are so many guys out there that can play those positions well. It is far harder to find good DL, OT, QB, CB, etc. That's why you draft those positions early, cause if you wait you may not be able to find someone thats any good.

DL at 31. Period.

CB, WR, or maybe another DL at 34.

Ok, 61 might be a good place to take a safety.

Yes because DL in the first is such a guarantee

Mcgrew.... Balmer...

And before you say "well this management is different", I'll introduce you to A.J Jenkins who did absolutely nothing for us in his first year. Not saying he will not be good but we are talking about the difference between a BACK UP Defensive lineman or a STARTING Safety at 31.... hmmmm..

Especially DE in a 3-4.. Ray Mac was a 4th round pick if I'm not mistaken and is VERY serviceable as a starter.. the draft is hit or miss and we could go either way..especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks


Uh, I didn't say anything about guarantees. I'm talking about positional value. So before you go all on me... let me try to explain what I'm talking about.

If you pick a safety in round 1 (or a ILB, TE, OG, etc), there is a very good chance that you will get at least an average quality NFL player. But the chance that you could have had somebody just as productive in rounds 2-4 is almost equally as high. Furthermore, the impact that guys at these positions have on the overall success of your football team is usually minimal. Give me the best CB, WR, or OLB in the league ANY DAY over the best S, TE, or ILB.

Are you with me so far....

Now, if you pick a DE/DT in round 1 (or a QB, CB, OT, WR, etc), there is a slightly higher bust potential than with a safer pick (like a safety)... a little more risk. But the potential impact that a quality player at one of those positions will have on your overall team success is higher. AND the chance that you could find a quality player at one of those positions in rounds 2-4 is MUCH lower compared to the safer picks.

Make sense? It's all about value.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by Sims84:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Anybody who thinks taking a safety in the 1st round is a good idea is a fool. Safety is one of those lower value positions.... like TE, ILB, OG, K. Aside from the rare athlete (Willis, VD, etc) these are not good value picks in the 1st round because there are so many guys out there that can play those positions well. It is far harder to find good DL, OT, QB, CB, etc. That's why you draft those positions early, cause if you wait you may not be able to find someone thats any good.

DL at 31. Period.

CB, WR, or maybe another DL at 34.

Ok, 61 might be a good place to take a safety.

Yes because DL in the first is such a guarantee

Mcgrew.... Balmer...

And before you say "well this management is different", I'll introduce you to A.J Jenkins who did absolutely nothing for us in his first year. Not saying he will not be good but we are talking about the difference between a BACK UP Defensive lineman or a STARTING Safety at 31.... hmmmm..

Especially DE in a 3-4.. Ray Mac was a 4th round pick if I'm not mistaken and is VERY serviceable as a starter.. the draft is hit or miss and we could go either way..especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks


Uh, I didn't say anything about guarantees. I'm talking about positional value. So before you go all on me... let me try to explain what I'm talking about.

If you pick a safety in round 1 (or a ILB, TE, OG, etc), there is a very good chance that you will get at least an average quality NFL player. But the chance that you could have had somebody just as productive in rounds 2-4 is almost equally as high. Furthermore, the impact that guys at these positions have on the overall success of your football team is usually minimal. Give me the best CB, WR, or OLB in the league ANY DAY over the best S, TE, or ILB.

Are you with me so far....

Now, if you pick a DE/DT in round 1 (or a QB, CB, OT, WR, etc), there is a slightly higher bust potential than with a safer pick (like a safety)... a little more risk. But the potential impact that a quality player at one of those positions will have on your overall team success is higher. AND the chance that you could find a quality player at one of those positions in rounds 2-4 is MUCH lower compared to the safer picks.

Make sense? It's all about value.

What about the fact that we may be in a position to draft the #1 or #2 safety in the class, compared to the #8 or #9 DL?

Also, maybe we should all realize how absurd this S vs DL debate is. We have 31 and 34, lol. Pick both.
I believe 49ers will either trade up or down with #31
Originally posted by Norwalks_Best:
I believe 49ers will either trade up or down with #31

I agree; it will be up. Actually I think we will trade "up" from several of our first six draft spots (1,2,2,3,3,4), using the other picks. Several rival teams are drafting right before us at #31 and I could see us wanting to jump them. In addition, in my mock I have us swapping #34 for #32 with Baltimore by giving up a 5th, wanting to secure the remaining BPA DL or S left on the board before day 1 ends.
Member Milestone: This is post number 1,200 for Sims84.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by Sims84:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Anybody who thinks taking a safety in the 1st round is a good idea is a fool. Safety is one of those lower value positions.... like TE, ILB, OG, K. Aside from the rare athlete (Willis, VD, etc) these are not good value picks in the 1st round because there are so many guys out there that can play those positions well. It is far harder to find good DL, OT, QB, CB, etc. That's why you draft those positions early, cause if you wait you may not be able to find someone thats any good.

DL at 31. Period.

CB, WR, or maybe another DL at 34.

Ok, 61 might be a good place to take a safety.

Yes because DL in the first is such a guarantee

Mcgrew.... Balmer...

And before you say "well this management is different", I'll introduce you to A.J Jenkins who did absolutely nothing for us in his first year. Not saying he will not be good but we are talking about the difference between a BACK UP Defensive lineman or a STARTING Safety at 31.... hmmmm..

Especially DE in a 3-4.. Ray Mac was a 4th round pick if I'm not mistaken and is VERY serviceable as a starter.. the draft is hit or miss and we could go either way..especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks


Uh, I didn't say anything about guarantees. I'm talking about positional value. So before you go all on me... let me try to explain what I'm talking about.

If you pick a safety in round 1 (or a ILB, TE, OG, etc), there is a very good chance that you will get at least an average quality NFL player. But the chance that you could have had somebody just as productive in rounds 2-4 is almost equally as high. Furthermore, the impact that guys at these positions have on the overall success of your football team is usually minimal. Give me the best CB, WR, or OLB in the league ANY DAY over the best S, TE, or ILB.

Are you with me so far....

Now, if you pick a DE/DT in round 1 (or a QB, CB, OT, WR, etc), there is a slightly higher bust potential than with a safer pick (like a safety)... a little more risk. But the potential impact that a quality player at one of those positions will have on your overall team success is higher. AND the chance that you could find a quality player at one of those positions in rounds 2-4 is MUCH lower compared to the safer picks.

Make sense? It's all about value.

A DE in a 3-4 will have less value RIGHT NOW than a top notch safety who will start from the jump. We have a chance to win right now and a BACK UP 3-4 DE will not help us nearly as much as a starting safety, especially since we pick twice in a matter of 4 picks. We must take a FS before the Ravens and we can EASILY grab a DE two picks later..what will help us more right now?? The answer is a safety..we added a young TOP 5 DL thru free agency in Dorsey..let the coaches do what they do to get his max potential
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,146
I don't think it really matters. There shouldn't be a run on DL or S after the 31st pick.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,158
Originally posted by blm7754:
Uh, I didn't say anything about guarantees. I'm talking about positional value. So before you go all on me... let me try to explain what I'm talking about.

If you pick a safety in round 1 (or a ILB, TE, OG, etc), there is a very good chance that you will get at least an average quality NFL player. But the chance that you could have had somebody just as productive in rounds 2-4 is almost equally as high. Furthermore, the impact that guys at these positions have on the overall success of your football team is usually minimal. Give me the best CB, WR, or OLB in the league ANY DAY over the best S, TE, or ILB.

Are you with me so far....

Now, if you pick a DE/DT in round 1 (or a QB, CB, OT, WR, etc), there is a slightly higher bust potential than with a safer pick (like a safety)... a little more risk. But the potential impact that a quality player at one of those positions will have on your overall team success is higher. AND the chance that you could find a quality player at one of those positions in rounds 2-4 is MUCH lower compared to the safer picks.

Make sense? It's all about value.

If you draft a poor player, you obtain little or no value, and it makes no difference what:

1. position he plays
2. what the team's positional needs are
3. the general hierarchical ranking of positional value in the NFL
4. the statistically calculated risk factor of different positions.

The value obtained in the drafting a player derives directly from that player's desire, mental toughness and discipline, football skill set, and physical attributes and capabilities. .

Drafting Brian Jennings, our long snapper, brought more value to this team than the combined value of Jim Drunkenmiller, Kentwan Balmer, and or Rashaun Woods.

In simple terms, better players have more value. The better the player drafted, the more value obtained. That is the bottom line.

Of course, in the real world simple terms do not always work so well.

When drafting a player, we must also consider the team needs and how that player fits into the team's scheme.

We have four All Pro linebackers. So, even if the best player available when we draft at #31 is a linebacker, it would be somewhat foolish to take that linebacker.

Setting a team draft board is, in effect, determining the complex dynamic better player skill and team need.

Let's suppose that our team needs are: #1 free safety, #2 nose tackle, #3 defensive end, #4 tight end, .#5 wide receiver

When we have our pick at #31, it it certain that a player who plays these positions will be available.

If free safety is our most important need, should we just select the best safety available?

Before you answer, think about this: What if a player at a position of lesser need, say a tight end, is a much better player.

In my opinion, we should take the better player.

It is not complicated. We should draft the best player available at a position of need.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 22, 2013 at 5:11 PM ]