NC's Mock V1.0 3/20/2013

I'm not a huge fan of this one. First, I don't think we should be trading away our 1st rounder this year. I just think there are too many high quality players to be had in the 20-60 range. Now, if somebody needing a QB wanted to give us their 2nd round pick this year and maybe a 2014 2nd or 3rd I would be cool with that. But flat out loosing our 1st in this years draft is a bad idea.

Next, I don't like the Barret Jones pick. Not that he's a bad player, I just think we go WR or FS here (maybe DE if a good one falls into this range). Da'Rick Rogers and Bacarri Rambo maybe better choices here.

And if you are going to go OL, OT is a bigger need (Kilgore and Looney can replace Goodwin). David Quessenberry might be one to watch (74 may be too early for him though).

Originally posted by blm7754:
I'm not a huge fan of this one. First, I don't think we should be trading away our 1st rounder this year. I just think there are too many high quality players to be had in the 20-60 range. Now, if somebody needing a QB wanted to give us their 2nd round pick this year and maybe a 2014 2nd or 3rd I would be cool with that. But flat out loosing our 1st in this years draft is a bad idea.

Next, I don't like the Barret Jones pick. Not that he's a bad player, I just think we go WR or FS here (maybe DE if a good one falls into this range). Da'Rick Rogers and Bacarri Rambo maybe better choices here.

And if you are going to go OL, OT is a bigger need (Kilgore and Looney can replace Goodwin). David Quessenberry might be one to watch (74 may be too early for him though).

That is totally fine and your opinion. Perhaps we could get a 1st round pick next year if we traded out of the first round. We could possibly pick a WR higher than what I had in the 5th. My next mock will be totally different. I am just displaying something I think could happen in a scenario. I just do not think Baalke cares or thinks like how us fan feel about drafting like we would. He has been anything but fan friendly when it comes to what we like in the draft. This is just me thinking "outside the box". I will do my next mock how I really want to do it and I am expecting more people to like it. Just understand this is not just what I want but as Baalke could play it. I doubt out of the two mocks I do I will get one player right. He is just unpredictable.

Originally posted by NC49erfan82:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I'm not going to get too nitpicky because obviously not every WZer is going to have the same idea of a perfect mock. That's what makes your mock yours and my mock mine. I like most of the players you took. I personally hate the idea of parlaying a high-end 2013 asset into a high-end 2014 asset; we're not a rebuilding team, we're a contending team that should LOAD UP. But I digress. It's a reasonable course of action and I can see it in the realm of possibility.

But I will say I think your mock overall suffers from a systematic misjudgment of priorities. A TE in the high 2nd? Kind of a luxury pick. A C in the 3rd? A fine player, but not a need. No S until the late 3rd? Do you want to risk Craig Dahl winning that starting spot? An MLB in the 4th? We're stronger at MLB than any team is at any position. We have two all-pros and just signed Skuta as primary backup. We have longtime fringe players in Gooden and Wilhoite. Now, my mock has us replacing the latter two with a late-rounder, but using a 4th is just silly.

The way I see it, sure we can go "BPA," but barring an insane value by an insane draft-day slide, you want to focus your premium picks on areas with your most urgent needs. Safeties and DL should rise toward the top for us. Luxury offensive backups should be an afterthought.

I am very understanding on your comment towards the mock but what I am trying to do is not think as how other GM's and draft analyst think. I am trying to think how Baalke thinks (which is hard). I understand you guys want to use our early picks on position of need but take a look at the LMJ pick in the 2nd round. That was not a position of need pick. I am trying to do this draft based on BPA and value at the same time. Baalke's drafts are not sexy but they have been successful. The MLB spot can become an issue... Gooden and Grant are FA's and if something were to happen between Willis or Bowman where you got to have Skuta as a filler I am not going to be comfortable. I want a guy groomed to play MLB to take his role. If you have Skuta as a replacement then he has to be replaced on SPT. The draft is deep at safety and yes we may take one earlier but who knows and we may find a valued pick in with DJ sitting right there. I am not knocking your thoughts but I am just defending mine. Thanks for your response and advise. Anything could happen! I you and other people see it the way I do. The next mock I do I will not be trading out of the 1st round but it will be a few weeks before I do it. Maybe fans will like it better? Like I said this is the 1st mock I done with trades.

Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
I don't understand why we traded a 1st round pick for a 2nd round pick next yr ????

NE traded their 31'st pick for Tampa's 2nd and 4th last draft. I just threw in a extra pick in their to compensate (2nd, 4th, and a 6th). We could get a first but who knows.

Nice response. I'm sure you're right that Baalke will throw me some curveballs.

Originally posted by NC49erfan82:
That is totally fine and your opinion. Perhaps we could get a 1st round pick next year if we traded out of the first round. We could possibly pick a WR higher than what I had in the 5th. My next mock will be totally different. I am just displaying something I think could happen in a scenario. I just do not think Baalke cares or thinks like how us fan feel about drafting like we would. He has been anything but fan friendly when it comes to what we like in the draft. This is just me thinking "outside the box". I will do my next mock how I really want to do it and I am expecting more people to like it. Just understand this is not just what I want but as Baalke could play it. I doubt out of the two mocks I do I will get one player right. He is just unpredictable.

That's cool.

The more of Baalke's drafts I see, the more I think I understand what he's going for. Here's is what I think we can say about his drafts:

- He favors upside over NFL readiness (Aldon, Kaepernick, Jenkins, and James are all perfect examples of this)

- He will pick a great player that falls, even if it's not a position of need (examples: James since we had Hunter, Cam Johnson since we had just picked Darius Fleming)

- With early picks (rounds 1 & 2) he is more likely to stand pat and pick his guy than trade back (ex: Aldon, Jenkins). If anything, he trades up (ex: Kaepernick). Probably too small of a sample size here, but I don't think he will trade back from 31. If anything, I think he will trade up.

I'll also add, that we fans tend to focus on positions of need because we have no idea what BPA choice will look like. We can't predict what players will fall to where. And so that line of thought just doesn't work. It's much easier to do mocks based on positions of need, positional value, and a broad estimate of what players might be available.

I agree with everything you had to say

I think DL is likely to be the pick at #31...unless he trades out of it. I'd like to see him take one of the "bigs" who can play DE and DT as opposed to a "pure" NT. Most analysts agree the picks in the 20-70 range are rich with NFL talent...so TB could trade out to get another 2nd and/or 3rd rounder to dip further into that pool. Another option to basically replace what Walker did could be big WR Marcus Davis (VA Tech). He has some impressive measurables...didn't play with very good QB's there, but his size & speed (best 40 is 4.38) could be pretty enticing. I'd draft a CB early (such as Jamar Taylor) and a true FS...love Phillip Thomas. Don't see the need for another interior OL...not when we have Kilgore and Looney waiting in the wings. Also not sure about the MLB...we have Wilhoite and just signed Stuka, who's not just a ST guy...he can play ILB, too.

I feel like this year is comparable to the year we took both Iupati and A.Davis in the 1st with a huge OL need. The organization will view the DB and DL as huge needs and IMO they will be the first 3 or 4 picks and we may trade up to get the guy(s) we want. With Boldin at WR and young players in Looney and Kilgore on the roster I don't think we make receiver or OL any kind of priority at all.

I like Ertz at 34. The loss of D. Walker hasn't been filled yet and we run a ton of 2 TE sets. Perfect guy to fit our system and can contribute on day one. Conor Vernon WR Duke is a steal in the late 4th or 5th.

Originally posted by matt49er:
I feel like this year is comparable to the year we took both Iupati and A.Davis in the 1st with a huge OL need. The organization will view the DB and DL as huge needs and IMO they will be the first 3 or 4 picks and we may trade up to get the guy(s) we want. With Boldin at WR and young players in Looney and Kilgore on the roster I don't think we make receiver or OL any kind of priority at all.

Bingo. I think Ertz is the only offensive player who might get taken with one of our first two picks. Otherwise, DEFENSE PLEASE.

Watching Swearinger highlights reminds me so much of Goldson, including the bonehead over the top aggressiveness that got him in trouble. Love the game, but the kid would need some coaching up.

Nice overall mock. Some may argue the order, but the players are good and no major reaches.

Originally posted by NC49erfan82:

Originally posted by jrg:
I just can't see us taking a TE first.

I cant see what we do after Aldon Smith and AJ Jenkins picks. Who knows what happens with Baalke. I honestly do not know what to expect.

Smartest post of the off-season.

Interesting mock! I do like the idea of trading for more picks next year, so won't argue with you about that. Like most players you select and you cover the major need areas.

According to CBS, Lewis was projected as a seventh round pick before his injury so fifth might be unrealistic.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/21534714/notre-dames-kapron-lewis-moore-has-a-torn-acl