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Phoenix49ers 2013 Mock Draft V4.0

Post-Senior Bowl Update

Predicting comp picks in Round 4 and Round 7.

Predicting early 3rd round pick in exchange for Alex. My justification for this is that desperation will set in for some teams. This is a weak QB class, new GM's and current GM's who could be on the hot seat will face pressure to get some stability at the position, having a guy with extensive pro experience, who has been playing the best football of his life is a bargain for a 3rd round pick. It could go higher depending on how things go, but I think an early 3rd round pick is fair for a solid NFL quarterback with many years left. The opposing argument that teams will wait for Alex to be released is flawed, as the 49ers potentially would not need to release him this offseason and I've seen that written in other articles, additionally if you wait for a guy to be released, you can't control his salary nor the destination he ends up in ultimately, there'd be more than a few teams interested in his services, so buy trading a 3rd round pick, you get an established quarterback, know how much he will be earning and don't have to compete with anyone else for him, to me, that is quite worth it. In this mock I predict that either KC, Oakland or Cleveland will trade for Alex.

Predicting Goldson to be re-signed.


Round 1-Datone Jones-DE-UCLA-6'4"280. After his performance at the Senior Bowl, I'm totally on board this bandwagon. He showed a tremendous combination of athleticism and technique. He can stand to add more weight but size-wise he is the closest to Justin Smith when he came out of college, bigger even actually. He can stop the rush but also has a great ability to rush the passer which I think is crucial, this defense has been most effective with Justin Smith reliably getting penetration and requiring a double-team to stop him. All the tools are there for him to be a dominant player, next season he could be a regular rotational DE, subbing in for Smith and McDonald throughout the game, allowing this team to maintain their pass rush which is tremendously important, we've see what this defense looks like when the pass rush is hindered, the need to get to the quarterback is most crucial.

Round 2-Brandon Williams-NT-Missouri Southern-6'2",341. Williams proved he can hang with top competition at the Senior Bowl. He has the tools to be a pro-level NT and really isn't very far off from Jonathan Jenkins in terms of overall talent. He might move up quite a bit more depending on the Combine results, especially with a few more teams going to be running the 3-4 next season and looking for an NT. If the 49ers could pull off snagging Williams AND Jones, I'd be ecstatic, that is the future of the defensive line right there, with both guys being able to develop under Tomsula and being slowly brought into eventual starting roles.

Round 3(AS Trade)-Quinton Patton-WR-Louisiana Tech-6'0", 205. Likely he won't be here, he may even move up into the early 2nd round. I'm basically hoping that his numbers will be off enough at the Combine to scare some teams away. He's a phenomenal prospect and perhaps the most game-ready WR in this draft. Comes with leadership ability, tenacity, not great speed but very deceptive quickness and an ability to make cuts without really slowing down, he has tremendous hands and is an eager blocker. I've been on board this bandwagon for awhile, I'm convinced he's going to be an outstanding player in the NFL.

Round 3-Leon McFadden-CB-San Diego State-5'10, 193. Playmaking corner, not great size but very fluid, outstanding closing speed, feisty, loves to compete, plays with confidence, would replace Tramaine Brock, could contribute on special teams and eventually replace Tarell Brown on the defense.

Round 3-Bacarri Rambo-FS-Georgia-6'1", 215. His stock fell some with the Senior Bowl but I still like him as a prospect quite a lot. He's very aggressive, loves to hit, plays the centerfield role very well, similar to Dashon Goldson in many ways, he is also bigger than initially thought, pretty good size for a safety and he fits this defense well, at this spot in the draft he's a bargain. An alternate at this spot could also be DJ Swearinger of South Carolina.

Round 4-Gavin Escobar-TE-San Diego State-6'5", 250. May not be available at this position but he provides a compelling combination of size and athleticism. Has to further develop his blocking ability but a very competent downfield target, would be a good replacement for Delanie Walker. An alternate at this spot could also be Ryan Otten of San Jose State who fell off somewhat at the Senior Bowl.

Round 4-Dennis Johnson-RB-Arkansas-5'9", 210. Love his talent, very good north-south runner, doesn't dance around, hits the hole hard and continues to drive his legs to pick up every last yard. He's a good receiver out of the backfield, has experience as a kick returner so he's good in space, is a good blocker and just a very good all-around back, has the size and strength to be an asset around the goal line.

Round 5-Matt Scott-QB-Arizona-6'2", 210. I'm on board with Tolzien as the backup QB, Scott is very similar to Kaepernick, not as experienced and needs time to develop but he could be an ideal backup down the road, he has a strong arm, quickness in the pocket, highly mobile, would fit well with the read option and Pistol principles that this team uses. A good guy to have sit on the bench for a couple of years and develop into a reliable backup, a potential starter down the road that could be traded for picks someday as well.

Round 5-Marquess Wilson-WR-Washington-6'3", 210. Wherever he gets picked, it will likely be too low, he's a physically impressive receiver, not a speedster by any means but has good hands and could be a useful addition. 49ers could be without Moss next year and Wilson could add a bigger, more physical element. Additionally Manningham may not return until after the season has started so another WR in the draft could be very helpful.

Round 6-Dustin Hopkins-K-Florida State-6'2", 190. 49ers need a kicker, Hopkins is the top prospect this year. If he's not available, Caleb Sturgis and Quinn Sharp are acceptable alternatives. 49ers should definitely try and add a kicker in this draft, doing so is essential with Akers looking shaky in regards to the future.

Round 6-Sam Schwarzstein-C-Stanford-6'3", 295. Provides depth at center, if Kilgore takes over, Schwarzstein would become the backup, he's got familiarity with the offense and is a decent run and pass blocker. Has experience playing center and is tremendously underrated.

Round 7-Tanner Hawkinson-OT-Kansas-6'5", 304. Good right-tackle prospect, experienced, somewhat undersized but would provide depth at a spot where this team has none. He could become an eventual starter if Davis is not re-signed. The 49ers have the luxury of not needing him to start immediately so he could simply sit on the bench and learn.

Round 7-Robert McCabe-ILB-Georgetown-6'1", 232. Could be a needed replacement for Larry Grant, also can contribute on special teams. He was a very good player at Duke, a bit undersized but a very capable inside linebacker and reliable tackler. Has good leadership skills, was team captain and leading tackler, tremendous college production, albeit at a lower level.

Round 7-Chris Jones-DE/DT-Bowling Green-6'2", 295. Worth a look. He was dominating at Bowling Green, capable pass rusher, not very refined, but plays aggressively with a solid motor. At this point in the draft, why not one more D-Line prospect to see what he's got.

Round 7-Tony Tatum-CB-Gallaudet-6'2", 200. Who the %$#? Where the $%#$? Sleeper prospect who is a tenacious defender, very aggressive cornerback, huge playmaker, he could be gone before this point but looks and plays the part of a good man to man cornerback. Doesn't shy way from physical contact, confident bordering on cocky, has absolutely dominated, basically the Revis of D3 football, played at a low level of competition this will drop him, as well as him being deaf, which is something he's managed with due to him being very instinctual. He could go anywhere from the mid 6th round to being undrafted, I think at this point in the draft, he'd be a terrific choice, especially with his physical size.







Will all these picks fit on the roster, doubtful, but I do oppose the notion that somehow the 49ers won't need a lot of draft picks. They have a lot of free agents and there could be substanstial roster turnover, just looking at the free agents, they could be looking at replacing:

Alex Smith
Tramaine Brock
Delanie Walker
Soap
RJF
Randy Moss
Dashon Goldson
Larry Grant
David Akers



Its easy to see how they could draft and have room for a substantial number of draft picks, not to mention that certain picks could beat out existing players on the roster. A guy like Brandon Williams could replace Ian Williams, a pick like McFadden could replace Perrish Cox with Tatum replacing Brock. Matt Scott could replace Alex Smith on the roster, McCabe could replace Grant or Wilhoite...etc.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 27, 2013 at 9:51 PM ]
best mock ive seen so far phoenix!!! really good job

as of right now I think datone jones will fall to us in the 1st round but I can see him steadily rising to the late teens or early 20s when all said and done. I hope he has just an average combine cuz I really like guy as Justin smith's heir. im a UCLA fan and have admired this kid for awhile and im not surprised how much his stock has risen

Brandon Williams is one of my favorite players going in the draft value-wise. I would like plug this guy in on running downs and use RJF for passing downs

I thought Rambo rose his stock in the senior bowl...?

.
[ Edited by JustinNiner on Jan 27, 2013 at 10:02 PM ]
I like the first 4 players a lot. I would question, though why you wouldnt include an OLB pass rusher somewhere in rds 3-5. To me, that would be more important than taking another smallish RB that would likely be the 5th RB on the roster ( and that some sites show 7th rd at best). Someone like Chase Thomas or John Simon might be a good pick in the 4th if either falls there after their less than stellar Senior Bowl performances.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I like the first 4 players a lot. I would question, though why you wouldnt include an OLB pass rusher somewhere in rds 3-5. To me, that would be more important than taking another smallish RB that would likely be the 5th RB on the roster ( and that some sites show 7th rd at best). Someone like Chase Thomas or John Simon might be a good pick in the 4th if either falls there after their less than stellar Senior Bowl performances.

Want to see what Fleming and Cam Johnson have after a healthy preseason. Its tough to hit up every single need in a draft but I tried to put together one that covers most of the bases.

I like Dennis Johnson a lot at RB, and no I don't think he'd be the 5th RB, I think he could knock Dixon off the roster and potentially be a replacement for Gore down the road. He's not huge in size but is a very physical runner, also a good receiver out of the backfield, he would complement what a guy like James does and is a more physical and with better size than Hunter.
I dont really like the Brandon Williams pick. I didn't get to see much tape on him but I did watch the Senior Bowl a couple of times. I don't think he's worth our second pick. I would rather draft one of the top CB, DT, or S left.
Originally posted by eonblue:
I dont really like the Brandon Williams pick. I didn't get to see much tape on him but I did watch the Senior Bowl a couple of times. I don't think he's worth our second pick. I would rather draft one of the top CB, DT, or S left.

He is one of the top DT left. After Jenkins he's arguably the best NT in the draft. That is a real position of need for the 49ers and Williams would be great value in the late 2nd.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by eonblue:
I dont really like the Brandon Williams pick. I didn't get to see much tape on him but I did watch the Senior Bowl a couple of times. I don't think he's worth our second pick. I would rather draft one of the top CB, DT, or S left.

He is one of the top DT left. After Jenkins he's arguably the best NT in the draft. That is a real position of need for the 49ers and Williams would be great value in the late 2nd.

Agreed. I'm a little bit concerned about what they would do if another team reaches for BWill before the Niners late 2nd.
Love the mock, 4 of the top 5 picks are same as what I would do at this point.

Regarding Alex Smith, there is this: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/28/alex-smith-is-expected-to-seek-his-release-before-free-agency/, which would be unfortunate. Not surprising, though.
Originally posted by Butter:
Agreed. I'm a little bit concerned about what they would do if another team reaches for BWill before the Niners late 2nd.

This team needs a better NT. As much as people talk about cornerback and the need for DE depth, as a 3-4 team, they've gone pretty far with essentially a mediocre NT. Soap doesn't create matchup problems for anyone, an NT that requires double-teams and can consistently collapse the pocket would be a major advantage that would make the rest of the defense perform even better.


Once you get past Williams, it gets kind of iffy in terms of the NT prospects. You're left with Kwame Geathers of Georgia, TJ Barnes of Georgia Tech, Montori Hughes of Tennessee-Martin and Anthony White of Michigan State.
Originally posted by mkary12:
Love the mock, 4 of the top 5 picks are same as what I would do at this point.

Regarding Alex Smith, there is this: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/28/alex-smith-is-expected-to-seek-his-release-before-free-agency/, which would be unfortunate. Not surprising, though.

He can seek whatever he wants, doesn't mean the team will give it to him. Why release him and risk him going to Arizona? Why release him at all and get no compensation for an in-demand commodity? Adam Schefter on ESPN fully expects Alex to be traded and sooner rather than later. 49ers are under no obligation to release him and it will only cost them a million to keep him through the end of March, if Baalke can't get a trade worked out in that time, then I'd start questioning his abilities as a GM, meaning to say, he will get a deal worked out, it won't be a 1st round pick, but an early 3rd round pick is entirely feasible for a guy who performed as well as Alex did this year, in an entirely QB poor year, both in free agency and the draft.


If you're a new GM with a mediocre QB or no QB, you don't have many options and you don't have a couple seasons to lose games and wait for a guy like Nassib to develop, you need to compete now and nobody on the market gives you that ability better than Alex does right now.


Personally I think that with Andy Reid in KC, with their running game and the OL they have, I think Alex could be the latest in a long line of 49ers quarterbacks to end up playing for the Chiefs. Their 3rd round pick for Alex would be quite fair, allowing them to take an impact player in the 1st and a quarterback of the future in the 2nd round.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 28, 2013 at 12:55 AM ]
Oh man....it's a thing of beauty.

( would like to see OT and rush LB depth addressed earlier... instead of the 4th rd RB and 5th rd WR, maybe )
Can't really argue with any of the picks and they seem pretty realistic with the exception of Patton (probably a mid-2nd rounder...but you never know). Still not convinced you can just plug in a rookie NT to this defense and somehow make it work right away. You mentioned that the team needs a better NT; I don't completely disagree, but when you're #1 and #2 in rushing yards in the last two years and known for being extremely tough to run on, the NT is doing something right. I just think Soap doesn't get enough credit for what he does, because he's not flashy and doesn't make a lot of plays. But what he's mostly asked to do (take on interior double teams and clog the middle of the field), he does REALLY well and that translates into a great run defense.

That one point aside, love the picks....zero complaints there.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Can't really argue with any of the picks and they seem pretty realistic with the exception of Patton (probably a mid-2nd rounder...but you never know). Still not convinced you can just plug in a rookie NT to this defense and somehow make it work right away. You mentioned that the team needs a better NT; I don't completely disagree, but when you're #1 and #2 in rushing yards in the last two years and known for being extremely tough to run on, the NT is doing something right. I just think Soap doesn't get enough credit for what he does, because he's not flashy and doesn't make a lot of plays. But what he's mostly asked to do (take on interior double teams and clog the middle of the field), he does REALLY well and that translates into a great run defense.

That one point aside, love the picks....zero complaints there.

I never said that you could plug Williams in right away, but you could definitely work him in at times, have him rotate in and out along with whoever remains at NT. I just think they need to get started with someone, as you said before, NT's take time, getting a talent like that some playing time and letting him develop will be crucial for the future of this defense, having a big, powerful NT makes the linebackers lives a lot easier and really sets the table for the whole defense.


As far as Soap doing well, the reality of the situation just doesn't bear that out, as I said, he's been rated as one of the most poor NT's this season, based on NT standards, not just statistical considerations. He's regularly been handled with a single blocker and the team has been repeatedly gashed up the middle by bigger, physical backs.

The 49ers do very well against smaller, shiftier RB's, but the bigger ones seem to have success against them and a big part of that goes back to the NT, if you have a guy that regularly demands multiple blockers, along with Justin demanding multiple blockers, it makes things very difficult for the opposing offense. One of the biggest differences in the defense from last year and this year is the performance of Soap. Last year he played at a high level, really busted his ass, this year he's fallen off it has shown.
I just don't see where you suggest the re-signing of either RJF or Soap, and you have the rookie NT replacing Ian Williams leaving no veteran NTs on the roster...so it was a natural assumption on my part. If you mean to work the rookie Williams into a rotation, I'm totally onboard with that.

Yes, there where some definite breakdowns in the run game against teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Vikings and the Giants. And I'm not suggesting that Soap is an all-Pro, and we definitely need to develop a long-term solution there (and Brandon Williams is ideal, so I have no argument with the pick). But the reality of the situation (as you said it) is that this team finished 4th in rushing yards allowed this year (1507 total yards). That's the 2nd best 49er defensive rush-yards total in 15 years, second only to last year (as you said, when Soap played at a very high level).

The team that crushed them twice this year was of course Seattle, but they ran over everyone (most attempts in the NFL, and 3rd most yards). Steven Jackson ran all over us after the bye week when the entire team seemed flat, but was held in check when we played them in St. Louis. Adrian Peterson was handled for most of the Minn game; it was Ponder's scrambling that really hurt the run defense that day. Ahmad Bradshaw did run all over us; no excuses there.

So in reality, Marshawn Lynch (twice), Ahmad Bradshaw (not a particularly big back, btw, but definitely a tough inside runner) and Steven Jackson (once) had success against us. The rest of the RBs in the league didn't do much against our defense. In terms of sheer defensive production which helped lead to the 4th ranked rush defense in the league, I can live with that kind of NT play.
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Jan 28, 2013 at 10:08 AM ]
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I just don't see where you suggest the re-signing of either RJF or Soap, and you have the rookie NT replacing Ian Williams leaving no veteran NTs on the roster...so it was a natural assumption on my part. If you mean to work the rookie Williams into a rotation, I'm totally onboard with that.

Yes, there where some definite breakdowns in the run game against teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Vikings and the Giants. And I'm not suggesting that Soap is an all-Pro, and we definitely need to develop a long-term solution there (and Brandon Williams is ideal, so I have no argument with the pick). But the reality of the situation (as you said it) is that this team finished 4th in rushing yards allowed this year (1507 total yards). That's the 2nd best 49er defensive rush-yards total in 15 years, second only to last year (as you said, when Soap played at a very high level).

The team that crushed them twice this year was of course Seattle, but they ran over everyone (most attempts in the NFL, and 3rd most yards). Steven Jackson ran all over us after the bye week when the entire team seemed flat, but was held in check when we played them in St. Louis. Adrian Peterson was handled for most of the Minn game; it was Ponder's scrambling that really hurt the run defense that day. Ahmad Bradshaw did run all over us; no excuses there.

So in reality, Marshawn Lynch (twice), Ahmad Bradshaw (not a particularly big back, btw, but definitely a tough inside runner) and Steven Jackson (once) had success against us. The rest of the RBs in the league didn't do much against our defense. In terms of sheer defensive production which helped lead to the 4th ranked rush defense in the league, I can live with that kind of NT play.

Somebody has to stay, whether its Soap or RJF...worst case scenario Ian Williams starts, but with a guy like Brandon Williams, you really do have to work him in, allow him to start treading water before you throw him into the deep end.


As far as the NT play, its the single biggest area where the 49ers can improve on an existing starter.