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Forty niners 2013 Compensatory Picks

I've heard several different people and even saw an article posted about the compensatory picks we're expecting to get in next year's draft. Now i'm seeing a lot of mock drafts with an extra third 3rd rd pick for us (which i assume is what we have been told is a compensatory pick).

Article linked: http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/49ers-have-stock-piled-plenty-2013-draft-picks

I think there is no way we're getting a 3rd rd pick for any of the FA's we lost. 2ndly, i dont see how we get 3 picks, i think the most we can hope for is 2.

As i understand the way compensatory picks and how they are allocated, there a 32 total compensatory picks in each draft. Those picks are allocated to different teams based on an unknown formula which weighs heavily upon salary. The better (read: player signed for more salary) you lost, the better pick you receive. You can receive up to a maximum of 4 picks. If all 32 picks are not allocated, they are given out to the teams in order starting with poorest performance starting with the last compensatory selection in the 7th rd.

Lets look at who we lost, what they signed for and some basic measure of performance since we know thats involved in the calculation but difficult to measure for us novices:

Adam Snyder 5 yrs, $17.5 million Played in 14 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs
Blake Costanzo 2 yrs, $1.865 million Played in 14 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs
Josh Morgan 2 yrs, $11.5 million Played in 16 games, No Pro Bowl, 1 game in playoffs, no awards

Who we signed and what he signed for:

Mario Manningham 2 yrs, $7.75 million Played in 12 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs

So as i see it, Joshua Morgan is the best FA we lost. Adam Snyder is the 2nd best, and Blake Costanzo is 3rd best. So i think the signing of Mario Manningham will cancel out the loss of Adam Snyder in a best case scenario. Therefore, we should be compensated for Josh Morgan and Blake Costanzo. But how much compensation can we expect?

Well since we don't know the formula, best way to estimate i think is to look at last year's compensatory picks and see what we can expect this year:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827e13f2/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs
In 2012: there was ONE 3rd rd compensatory pick awarded... to the Oakland Raiders for the loss of Ndandi Asamonga (5 yrs, $60 million)
In 2012: there were EIGHT 4th rd compensatory picks awarded:

Minnesota Sydney Rice, 5 yr $41 million
Oakland Zach Miller, 5 yr $34 million
Baltimore Dawan Landry, 5 yr $27.5 million
Green Bay Cullen Jenkins, 5 yr $30.4 million
Green Bay Darrin College, 5 yr $27.5 million
Minnesota Ray Edwards, 5 yr $30 million
Dallas Steven Bowen, 5 yr $27.5 million

THREE 5th rd picks
Oakland Robert Gallery, 3 yr, $15 million
Baltimore Chris Chester, 4 yr, $16 million
Indianapolis Charlie Johnson, 3 yr, $10.5 million

I'm not going to show the 6th and 7th rd picks because its frankly too much work and i think my point is made. Our FA lost are more in line with 5th rd compensatory picks or later... rather than 3rd or even 4th rd picks.

*Please note, i used this website's projections http://bloggingthebeast.com/2012/02/03/2012-compensatory-pick-projections/ to estimate what player loss each team was compensated for. I don't think the NFL makes public why each team received which pick.
You forgot Madieu Williams who was a starter for the Redskins.
Thx for the analysis. I am in your camp, I truly cannot see how the niners will get a 3rd round pick as compensation. The article you linked gives me pause, the niners did lose starters, but gained also.

Assuming your above scenario is true, Josh Morgan would probably be worth a 4th or 5th

Constanzo a 7th.
Great thanks, well that explains the 3 picks.

So using a lot of other people's work the way i'd estimate it is:

Josh Morgan 2 yr, 11.5 million - 5th rd pick
Blake Costanzo 2 yr, 1.865 million - 7th rd pick
Madieu Williams 1 yr, 890k, Starter - 7th rd pick
Originally posted by azninersfan:
Great thanks, well that explains the 3 picks.

So using a lot of other people's work the way i'd estimate it is:

Josh Morgan 2 yr, 11.5 million - 5th rd pick
Blake Costanzo 2 yr, 1.865 million - 7th rd pick
Madieu Williams 1 yr, 890k, Starter - 7th rd pick

You forgot Snyder. Maybe a 4th or 5th.
Originally posted by NC49erfan82:
Originally posted by azninersfan:
Great thanks, well that explains the 3 picks.

So using a lot of other people's work the way i'd estimate it is:

Josh Morgan 2 yr, 11.5 million - 5th rd pick
Blake Costanzo 2 yr, 1.865 million - 7th rd pick
Madieu Williams 1 yr, 890k, Starter - 7th rd pick

You forgot Snyder. Maybe a 4th or 5th.

He said that the signing of Manningham would cancel out Snyder. I never could understand the 3rd rd pick either but was hopeful.
Originally posted by azninersfan:
Great thanks, well that explains the 3 picks.

So using a lot of other people's work the way i'd estimate it is:

Josh Morgan 2 yr, 11.5 million - 5th rd pick
Blake Costanzo 2 yr, 1.865 million - 7th rd pick
Madieu Williams 1 yr, 890k, Starter - 7th rd pick
I believe that extra third round pick you are seeing in most mocks is from the trade with Carolina which will be the 14th pick in the third round and not a comp pick.
Most are showing three, third rounders not two. Ours, the Carolina pick and one compensatory. Some even show 4 as a possible result of a Smith trade, but most who show any more than two admit to being very optomisitic. I think those sighting the third rounder, since we do not know the formula, are sightning Snyder as the source being a starting gaurd for AZ. Then considering Rio for Morgan a wash, and calling a late rounder for Williams/ Costanzo. Reason being they are not looking at salary but at utility lost/gained, and losing a starting gaurd who then goes and starts elsewhere, even if we thought it was addition by subtraction, is considered a pretty big loss.

The whole conversation is YMMV since we really dont know how its calculated....If I were betting the odds I would say 2 thirds, ours and Carolina's, then 3, fourth's...one for Snyder, our orginal and one for Smith. But since draft threads are all about hopes and dreams...I have no problem with people making up drafts with a bunch 3rd rounders.
Assuming we get a third for alex?
Originally posted by OtisDriftwood:
Assuming we get a third for alex?

He won't be a free agent (2 yrs left on deal) so no chance of any comp picks for him next year. If he leaves it will be via cut or trade. Guys who get cut you can't get comp picks for.
Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
Most are showing three, third rounders not two. Ours, the Carolina pick and one compensatory. Some even show 4 as a possible result of a Smith trade, but most who show any more than two admit to being very optomisitic. I think those sighting the third rounder, since we do not know the formula, are sightning Snyder as the source being a starting gaurd for AZ. Then considering Rio for Morgan a wash, and calling a late rounder for Williams/ Costanzo. Reason being they are not looking at salary but at utility lost/gained, and losing a starting gaurd who then goes and starts elsewhere, even if we thought it was addition by subtraction, is considered a pretty big loss.

The whole conversation is YMMV since we really dont know how its calculated....If I were betting the odds I would say 2 thirds, ours and Carolina's, then 3, fourth's...one for Snyder, our orginal and one for Smith. But since draft threads are all about hopes and dreams...I have no problem with people making up drafts with a bunch 3rd rounders.

A 3rd is possible. Mario wipes out Morgan, contract is more similar to Morgan's then it is to Snyder's. Snyder will net us higher than a 5th.

Costanzo will get us a 7th, and the extra possible 7th comes from Morgan just for the fact of his deal, or Madieu Williams, who signed a minimum deal, and they usually dont count in the formula.
AB83 plays into this too, not the first time I have seen him say a third is possible. His opinion on draft and cap is really respected and I am sure many are taking there queue from him.
I think we could get a thrid out of this somehow, slim compared to the chances of it being a 4th or a 5th tho.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
A 3rd is possible. Mario wipes out Morgan, contract is more similar to Morgan's then it is to Snyder's. Snyder will net us higher than a 5th.

Costanzo will get us a 7th, and the extra possible 7th comes from Morgan just for the fact of his deal, or Madieu Williams, who signed a minimum deal, and they usually dont count in the formula.

I dont think a 3rd is possible. Looking at all the FA's that were lost last year (starters) and the money they signed for, all significantly higher than Snyder and they were 4th rd compensation. So at BEST, i see a 4th rd compensation. Since we don't know the forumula, lets look at history. Has there been a 3rd round compensatory pick for a player who was lost with salary anywhere near Morgan or Snyder? i only looked back 1 year, how did 2011's compensatory picks look?
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,537
I think that the number of starts by a lost free agent is also one of the factors in the formula.

I also think that production for skill players is also considered.

Adam Snyder started every game he played in--14 games.

Edit: Snyder signed a five year 17.5 million contract that had a 5 million signing bonus.



Josh Morgan played in 16 games and he started 15 of them.
Josh Morgan had 48 receptions for 510 yards and 2 scores.
He led the Redskins in receptions and was third in yardage.


Mario Manningham played in 12 games and started 10 of them.
Mario Manningham had 42 receptions for 449 yards and 1 TD.
He was 2nd on the team in receptions and third in yardage.
[ Edited by buck on Jan 15, 2013 at 11:16 PM ]
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