I've heard several different people and even saw an article posted about the compensatory picks we're expecting to get in next year's draft. Now i'm seeing a lot of mock drafts with an extra third 3rd rd pick for us (which i assume is what we have been told is a compensatory pick).
Article linked: http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/49ers-have-stock-piled-plenty-2013-draft-picks
I think there is no way we're getting a 3rd rd pick for any of the FA's we lost. 2ndly, i dont see how we get 3 picks, i think the most we can hope for is 2.
As i understand the way compensatory picks and how they are allocated, there a 32 total compensatory picks in each draft. Those picks are allocated to different teams based on an unknown formula which weighs heavily upon salary. The better (read: player signed for more salary) you lost, the better pick you receive. You can receive up to a maximum of 4 picks. If all 32 picks are not allocated, they are given out to the teams in order starting with poorest performance starting with the last compensatory selection in the 7th rd.
Lets look at who we lost, what they signed for and some basic measure of performance since we know thats involved in the calculation but difficult to measure for us novices:
Adam Snyder 5 yrs, $17.5 million Played in 14 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs
Blake Costanzo 2 yrs, $1.865 million Played in 14 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs
Josh Morgan 2 yrs, $11.5 million Played in 16 games, No Pro Bowl, 1 game in playoffs, no awards
Who we signed and what he signed for:
Mario Manningham 2 yrs, $7.75 million Played in 12 games, No Pro Bowl, did not play in playoffs
So as i see it, Joshua Morgan is the best FA we lost. Adam Snyder is the 2nd best, and Blake Costanzo is 3rd best. So i think the signing of Mario Manningham will cancel out the loss of Adam Snyder in a best case scenario. Therefore, we should be compensated for Josh Morgan and Blake Costanzo. But how much compensation can we expect?
Well since we don't know the formula, best way to estimate i think is to look at last year's compensatory picks and see what we can expect this year:
In 2012: there was ONE 3rd rd compensatory pick awarded... to the Oakland Raiders for the loss of Ndandi Asamonga (5 yrs, $60 million)
In 2012: there were EIGHT 4th rd compensatory picks awarded:
Minnesota Sydney Rice, 5 yr $41 million
Oakland Zach Miller, 5 yr $34 million
Baltimore Dawan Landry, 5 yr $27.5 million
Green Bay Cullen Jenkins, 5 yr $30.4 million
Green Bay Darrin College, 5 yr $27.5 million
Minnesota Ray Edwards, 5 yr $30 million
Dallas Steven Bowen, 5 yr $27.5 million
THREE 5th rd picks
Oakland Robert Gallery, 3 yr, $15 million
Baltimore Chris Chester, 4 yr, $16 million
Indianapolis Charlie Johnson, 3 yr, $10.5 million
I'm not going to show the 6th and 7th rd picks because its frankly too much work and i think my point is made. Our FA lost are more in line with 5th rd compensatory picks or later... rather than 3rd or even 4th rd picks.
*Please note, i used this website's projections http://bloggingthebeast.com/2012/02/03/2012-compensatory-pick-projections/ to estimate what player loss each team was compensated for. I don't think the NFL makes public why each team received which pick.