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MD was right

I wanted Watt BUT I'm very happy we have Aldon.

We desperately needed an OLB pass rusher and he gave us that and then some. Who would have filled in for Harrelson currently on our roster?

Watt would be in a rotation right now. Would love to have him also BUT we still have a great player in Aldon. I feel he'll get 18 sacks this season.

We should have enough ammo to move up and get a high caliber DLine player.
I have nothing to back up my statement but his pure dominant play, but I think Watt is on the juice and will eventually get caught. He was never this dominant in college (though good), and even hopped around in positions. Now he's getting 8.5 sacks from the DE 3-4 position. Very unlikely.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I have nothing to back up my statement but his pure dominant play, but I think Watt is on the juice and will eventually get caught. He was never this dominant in college (though good), and even hopped around in positions. Now he's getting 8.5 sacks from the DE 3-4 position. Very unlikely.

he is pretty bohemoth for a 23 y/o or however the 2nd year player is.
MadDog assessment of Watt was pretty spot on, so he was right in this case.. MadDog was completely wrong on his assessment of Ahmad Brooks.

Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong.
Originally posted by WINiner:
Maddog is one of my least liked posters, and I disagree with him often, but when it comes to Watt and Smith he is 100% correct. Our team would be better with JJ Watt than we are with Aldon Smith.

JJ Watt is going to be a HoF type player, while Aldon is going to be real good, but not the level of Watt. Barring injury of course.

Gotta give credit where it's due.

NA
It's really hard to call for real based on what this team needed. But purely off who is better player. I would say it's Watt. But that doesn't mean he was the best FIT for our team at the time. But how good would the team had been with Watt last year over Aldon? Watt only had 5.5 sacks and that means that the Niners would have been missing that pressure that Smith brought to the table. And his pressure last year was invaluable.

I say it's tough to call but I do think folks should get off MD's back for his opinion on Watt.
Totally agree w/lamontb - very glad we have MD's insights and opinions.

I always get a lot of info from him.
What does it matter now? I actually happen to enjoy MD's takes on various subjects and believe he's a valued contributor to this forum. In life as in business its not good to dwell on the past. Both are good players. While it should be argued Watt is the better player at this point, Smith has brought what this team drafted him for and I am happy with the selection.

BTW, why are people talking HoF for players in their second year? Way to early I would think.

Just enjoy Aldon Smith, because even you don't like him, you're stuck cheering for him.
I'm not going to lose sleep over this.
Of course I am right.....

While it is way too early to crown anybody a star over anyone else (we are talking about 22-23 year old kids), Watt is on the path to a Hall of Fame career if he continues to play dominant football and post ridiculous numbers. But, these guys are young, and there is a lot of football to be played. Anyone can flame out at this point.

That point being made.....Here is why Watt is going to be special way beyond the crazy stats he is posting: He is going to revolutionize the way that DL play the game. Watt is leading the league in sacks, but is also leading all front seven defenders in passes defended. He is on pace to have 26 defended passes. In the last handful of years, NFL DL leaders have around 10-12 by the end of the season. In 5 games this season, Watt has eight deflections (three that went for INT's), and this is the part of his game least discussed, but may have the greatest impact. Watt can go hard after the QB, and drop into coverage, but the specialness of his game is eliminating throwing zones for QB's. By keeping his head up, he eliminates a large chunk of the field for the QB to toss the ball into be positioning himself in throwing lanes.

Coaches will be able to say to DL: you are never really out of a play, even if you are not in the QB's face. Let's face it, the vast majority of times, pass rushers are not getting to the QB. If a DL averages only one sack a game, he is a legend, a future HOF. So, the vast majority of times, a rusher is going to fail in their goal of getting to the QB. However, if they can alter where the ball is thrown on plays when they are not in the QB's face, then you have something even more powerful than the occassional sack. Watt has the physical skills (vertical leap, long arms) to take away a portion of a QB's targets on the field. And, you know, coaches are going to try to duplicate what he is doing at the pro, college and high school level.

As for the comparison with Aldon Smith, they play two separate positions on the field, and it is hard to compare. But, realistically, nobody is in Watt's league right now in being as disruptive a player for opposing coaches. That is why he is considered an MVP candidate at the 3-4 position. He is changing the way football will be played in the future. I'm not sure Smith will revolutionize the game the same way as Watt.

As for a posted comment that Watt is getting a lot of one-on-one matchups for sacks, that is not actually true. Of Watt's 8.5 sacks, 7.5 were in 3 or 4 man fronts. He is routinely doubled teamed, and the Texans are attempting to stop this by flipping him back and forth across the LOS.

All of this being said, nobody expected him to be the best defender in the NFL in 2012. I had him fifth on my draft board last year, behind AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, and Marcell Dareus. Not a bad group of rookies from that class. As for Smith, I had him graded as the second best 3-4 OLB after Miller (who I believe will be, and is currently, the superior player over Smith). I graded Smith as a mid-first rounder, and he has exceeded expectations. Good for us.
Im sorry but what Watt is doing isnt revolutionary, For years now when watching a game and you see a DL knock a ball down you will always hear a commentator say this is what these guys are taught if you dont get to the QB put your hands up and try and knock it down. Watt is really good at it but its been taught for years now. You act like he invented this move lol
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Of course I am right.....

While it is way too early to crown anybody a star over anyone else (we are talking about 22-23 year old kids), Watt is on the path to a Hall of Fame career if he continues to play dominant football and post ridiculous numbers. But, these guys are young, and there is a lot of football to be played. Anyone can flame out at this point.

That point being made.....Here is why Watt is going to be special way beyond the crazy stats he is posting: He is going to revolutionize the way that DL play the game. Watt is leading the league in sacks, but is also leading all front seven defenders in passes defended. He is on pace to have 26 defended passes. In the last handful of years, NFL DL leaders have around 10-12 by the end of the season. In 5 games this season, Watt has eight deflections (three that went for INT's), and this is the part of his game least discussed, but may have the greatest impact. Watt can go hard after the QB, and drop into coverage, but the specialness of his game is eliminating throwing zones for QB's. By keeping his head up, he eliminates a large chunk of the field for the QB to toss the ball into be positioning himself in throwing lanes.

Coaches will be able to say to DL: you are never really out of a play, even if you are not in the QB's face. Let's face it, the vast majority of times, pass rushers are not getting to the QB. If a DL averages only one sack a game, he is a legend, a future HOF. So, the vast majority of times, a rusher is going to fail in their goal of getting to the QB. However, if they can alter where the ball is thrown on plays when they are not in the QB's face, then you have something even more powerful than the occassional sack. Watt has the physical skills (vertical leap, long arms) to take away a portion of a QB's targets on the field. And, you know, coaches are going to try to duplicate what he is doing at the pro, college and high school level.

As for the comparison with Aldon Smith, they play two separate positions on the field, and it is hard to compare. But, realistically, nobody is in Watt's league right now in being as disruptive a player for opposing coaches. That is why he is considered an MVP candidate at the 3-4 position. He is changing the way football will be played in the future. I'm not sure Smith will revolutionize the game the same way as Watt.

As for a posted comment that Watt is getting a lot of one-on-one matchups for sacks, that is not actually true. Of Watt's 8.5 sacks, 7.5 were in 3 or 4 man fronts. He is routinely doubled teamed, and the Texans are attempting to stop this by flipping him back and forth across the LOS.

All of this being said, nobody expected him to be the best defender in the NFL in 2012. I had him fifth on my draft board last year, behind AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, and Marcell Dareus. Not a bad group of rookies from that class. As for Smith, I had him graded as the second best 3-4 OLB after Miller (who I believe will be, and is currently, the superior player over Smith). I graded Smith as a mid-first rounder, and he has exceeded expectations. Good for us.

To be fair nobody had Watt being this good. Me too. And I have a lot of relatives in Wisconsin. And I went to many Badgers games at home and the Rose Bowl. I knew of Watt for sure. I also knew he was underrated. But I didn't see him being this much of a destroyer. He's just unbelievable. Better than I ever thought by far.

Aldon is also better than expected and may be close to as good. He's one heck of a pass rusher if he can keep his PAC MAN JONES tendencies to a minimum.
[ Edited by SanDiego49er on Oct 10, 2012 at 7:19 PM ]
  • Jcool
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First off Watt is not going to "revolutionize the game" He isn't doing anything special out there. He is a really good defensive linemen, getting a lot of sacks but so was Clay Matthews, three weeks ago when he was on pace for 40 sacks (he was never going to get close to that but that was the pace). Watt got over hyped because he was on Monday Night Football and the moron Gruden (thank god the 49ers didn't hire him) was going to make Watt the guy he went nuts over and next week it will be someone else he thinks is the greatest player ever. In 16 games last year Watt had 4 pass deflections and 5.5 sack, average numbers, granted he was a rookie but people need to stop acting like he had 20 sacks and 20 deflections guy last year and this year is just a continuation of that. The real truth behind Watts breakout year is Wade Phillips. I don't know the exact number but its something like 4-5 guys he has coached have lead the league in sacks. The way he schemes his defense someone racks up big sack numbers.

Now people seem to be down on Aldon Smith this year because he isn't sacking the QB every play, like it appeared last year. They remember him last year playing 2 downs per drive and getting 2 sacks. Well while he is still being asked to sack the QB he is also being asked to cover a RB or TE and he is a 3 down linebacker this year. He is helping with the run and pass and guess what he would probably be leading the league is sacks right now if he didn't lose a couple to defensive penalties and still not sure if the disputed one that was credited to Ray McDonald was ever corrected. Would i want Watt on this team? Sure he is a good player. Would I trade Aldon Smith for J.J. Watt? No.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Oh pleeeease....

Look, J.J. Watt is a phenomenal player. He looks like a shoe in for the HOF. But based on the personnel that we had going into that draft, picking Aldon was the right call. We have J. Smith and McDonald. Where would Watt fit? Should we have let McDonald go in FA instead? In that scenario we are left without an elite pass-rusher, something that prevented this defense from being a top unit for years.

Aldon is putting up some eye-popping numbers too you know. He has a shot at breaking Reggie White's record as the fastest defender to reach 20 sacks. Reggie-freakin'-White. I think we're doing just fine with Aldon.

Agree. Watt is and will continue to be a great defensive player as long as Wade Philips stays the defensive coordinator. They send at least 5+ rushers most of the time which gives Watt a ton of one-on-one match-ups in which he is just down right beating his man almost every single time. Love his energy and batted balls he gets at the line of scrimmage when he can't get to the passer.
Mad Dog is wrong way way way more times then he's been right

And Shawn Merriman was thought to be a HOF'er after 2 years...

Way to f**ken early to claim anything