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MD was right

Von Miller is every bit the beast JJ Watt is... can't leave him out of a DPOY discussion.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
While MD was certainly right about JJ Watt being a force, he was wrong on his assessment of Smith. But what I'm most excited about was how wrong he was about Kaep. This guy looks to have the tools to be a dominant force at the QB position for years to come. He's got elite size, speed, arm strength. Coupled with intelligence, accuracy, leadership, and humbleness, this guy could be the steal of the draft. I'm really surprised since RGIII and Cam Newton garnered the exact same superlatives, and that we were fortunate enough to land Kaep in the second round. What a home-run. Looks like Baalke knew what he was doing after all.
Really you could say that the entire 2011 draft has proven to be a great one (except for that USC WR, forget his name.) Aldon, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Miller, Kilgore--that's quite a draft class.

And its true that MD graded it a "C" overall at the time. He has recently stated that he was wrong about his grade, so I'm not here to ridicule him about it.

I will note that draft grades are meaningless, except perhaps as discussion starters.

As far as MD's championing Watt, frankly, I don't believe that at the time of the draft MD had any idea that Watt would have the stellar year he has had this year. Nobody did, or Watt would have gone #1 overall, not #11.

And despite the title of this thread, MD was not right in claiming that the Niners should have taken Watt over Aldon Smith. Watt has had a great year, but Aldon has as well, and he filled a much greater need for the Niners in 2011.

Bottom line: its a team sport, and individual awards might be nice, but they do not compare with that Lombardi Trophy.
Nobody could have expected that a 3-4 DE could lead the NFL in sacks, and make a run at 22.5, nor be number one in QB hits by a wide margin (Watt at 39, Wake second at 28, Smith tied for third at 26), tackles for a DL by a wide margin (Watt at 74, J. Smith second with 66) number one in the NFL in tackles for loss by a wide margin (Watt at 33, Miller second at 25, Lavonte David third at 18, A. Smith tied for fourth at 17), lead the NFL in passes defensed by a non-secondary player (Watt has 15, the next DL has 7; the top LB has 9), lead the NFL by a wide margin of negative plays with 81 (sacks, tackles for loss or no gain, deflections), nor blow everyone away defensively in what Advanced NFL Stats grades as their WPA, which determines the impact a player has in a game.

To me, this is not about being right or wrong anymore for the year 2012. This is about the stuff of legends. We are witnessing the greatest performance by a DL since Bruce Smith. For me, it is simply the joy of watching a player dominate the game.

Stats courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Dec 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM ]
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If you read my previous post, nobody is saying that Aldon had a bad game. However, in comparison with Watt's game, it was far inferior. Since these two guys are the front runners, people are going to compare them weekly.

Watt- 10 solo tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 QB hits
Smith- 1 assisted tackle, 0 tackles for loss, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QB hits

If you believe that Smith's performance last night was superior, then that is fine. I do encourage you to watch the Texans game, if it is replayed this week on the NFL network.

As for guys compiling impressive stats, nobody is arguing that are other players with nice stats. Geno Atkins has been phenomenal, Justin Smith is having another solid year, etc. However, nobody is in Watt's league right now. First in the NFL in sacks, first in the NFL in tackles for loss, first amongst all non-secondary members in deflections, second against the run for all DL according to Advacnced NFL Stats and Pro Football Focus, and thr highest graded player of all positions according to both of the previously listed sites.

Justin Smith is the benchmark for excellence as a 3-4 DE. He is second amongst all DL in tackles, with 66. Watt has 74. Justin Smith has 3 sacks, Watt has 19.5. Justin Smith has 2 passes defense, Watt 15. Smith has zero forced fumbles, Watt has three. So, even though Smith is having a fine overall year, the benchmark player has been dwarfed by Watt this year.
Yeah, I read your "defense" of Aldon, which, while correct, seems like faint praise when you immediately switch back to your "Watt for DPOY" campaign.

Watt's having a great year, statistically. Aldon's not doing too badly, either.

Aldon didn't have as good a game, statistically, against the Pats, as Watt did, but the end result for Aldon's team (you remember them), was much, much better.

Frankly, last night's game appeared to be one where the leadership of the defense passed, at least in part, from Justin to Aldon. Aldon is capable of contributing to the defense in many more ways than a DE can.

If DPOY is based solely on statistics, Watt may win it.

If its based on statistics and other things, intangibles, value to a team's defense overall, then some others may get consideration, including Aldon.

Either way, my point is that Aldon has proven to be THE RIGHT SELECTION in the 2011 draft for the Niners, irrespective of whether Watt was still available or not. That won't change if Watt wins some individual award at the end of the year.

You're grasping, dude. I know the whole Watt vs. Aldon thing is ingrained in the premise of this thread, but it's time to let go of the notion that Watt's success in the NFL diminishes Aldon's success. They are both superstars, plain and simple.

As for DPOY, I agree 100% with MD, and your rebuttals are weak. You say it shouldn't be based just on Watt's stats but rather on "other things" like "value to a team's defense overall." Well, the body of stats MD has pointed out show, definitively, that Watt has added the most value to a team's defense overall in the entire NFL. There's no doubt in my mind that he's asked to do more things than Smith and is a more dynamic all-around player (don't take this as a commentary on whom we should have drafted, simply an evaluation of their current seasons).

Here's how I see it. If Aldon is the only one to break 22.5, he will win DPOY over Watt because of the prestige that record carries. If Watt beats Aldon in sacks, Watt will win DPOY. If they both fall short of 22.5, Watt will win DPOY even if Aldon edges him for the sack title. The wild-card is what happens if Aldon beats Watt, but they both break the record (of course, this wouldn't be considered a "record" for Watt in this scenario, but imagine 23.0 for Watt and 23.5 for Aldon). Even though Aldon's name would go in the record books, I could see the voters using Watt's number as justification to give him DPOY. It all comes down to sacks at this point.

Whatever happens, keep in mind Aldon is about to follow this year with another dozen or so opportunities to break the sack record and collect DPOY awards.
[ Edited by LieutKaffee on Dec 19, 2012 at 1:57 AM ]
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At this point, I have to agree that barring some miracle JJ Watt is going to win, and deserves to win, the DPOY award.

And considering the fact that Watt will face a banged up Colts offensive line again, it seems likely that he will break the existing sack record also.

Watt is earning his accolades.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
While MD was certainly right about JJ Watt being a force, he was wrong on his assessment of Smith. But what I'm most excited about was how wrong he was about Kaep. This guy looks to have the tools to be a dominant force at the QB position for years to come. He's got elite size, speed, arm strength. Coupled with intelligence, accuracy, leadership, and humbleness, this guy could be the steal of the draft. I'm really surprised since RGIII and Cam Newton garnered the exact same superlatives, and that we were fortunate enough to land Kaep in the second round. What a home-run. Looks like Baalke knew what he was doing after all.

so...... Gabbard vs Kaepernick thread soon?
Whoever wins the DPOY deserves it!

I'm hoping for Aldon but whatever happens - we still have a fantastis player in Aldon Smith.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
You're grasping, dude. I know the whole Watt vs. Aldon thing is ingrained in the premise of this thread, but it's time to let go of the notion that Watt's success in the NFL diminishes Aldon's success. They are both superstars, plain and simple.

As for DPOY, I agree 100% with MD, and your rebuttals are weak. You say it shouldn't be based just on Watt's stats but rather on "other things" like "value to a team's defense overall." Well, the body of stats MD has pointed out show, definitively, that Watt has added the most value to a team's defense overall in the entire NFL. There's no doubt in my mind that he's asked to do more things than Smith and is a more dynamic all-around player (don't take this as a commentary on whom we should have drafted, simply an evaluation of their current seasons).

Here's how I see it. If Aldon is the only one to break 22.5, he will win DPOY over Watt because of the prestige that record carries. If Watt beats Aldon in sacks, Watt will win DPOY. If they both fall short of 22.5, Watt will win DPOY even if Aldon edges him for the sack title. The wild-card is what happens if Aldon beats Watt, but they both break the record (of course, this wouldn't be considered a "record" for Watt in this scenario, but imagine 23.0 for Watt and 23.5 for Aldon). Even though Aldon's name would go in the record books, I could see the voters using Watt's number as justification to give him DPOY. It all comes down to sacks at this point.

Whatever happens, keep in mind Aldon is about to follow this year with another dozen or so opportunities to break the sack record and collect DPOY awards.

I agree, Watt adds more value to the texans D, but that's more due to Aldon having a better supporting cast. even as a DPOY candidate he's probably not the best defensive player on the team. both are having great seasons, but voters will nitpick at this just because it's so close.

I and most agree with the bolded.
Aldon is great but Watt definitely deserves DPOY. Watt is the more complete player and he is harder to neutralize compared with Aldon. Both are great players and I hope this is a yearly battle for a long time.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Nobody could have expected that a 3-4 DE could lead the NFL in sacks, and make a run at 22.5, nor be number one in QB hits by a wide margin (Watt at 39, Wake second at 28, Smith tied for third at 26), tackles for a DL by a wide margin (Watt at 74, J. Smith second with 66) number one in the NFL in tackles for loss by a wide margin (Watt at 33, Miller second at 25, Lavonte David third at 18, A. Smith tied for fourth at 17), lead the NFL in passes defensed by a non-secondary player (Watt has 15, the next DL has 7; the top LB has 9), lead the NFL by a wide margin of negative plays with 81 (sacks, tackles for loss or no gain, deflections), nor blow everyone away defensively in what Advanced NFL Stats grades as their WPA, which determines the impact a player has in a game.

To me, this is not about being right or wrong anymore for the year 2012. This is about the stuff of legends. We are witnessing the greatest performance by a DL since Bruce Smith. For me, it is simply the joy of watching a player dominate the game.

Stats courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats
No question, Watt is enjoyable to watch.

I'm not sure about how "legendary" his performance is. If he wins DPOY and Houston wins the SB, then maybe.

Here's what I'm hoping for: Niners vs. Houston in the SuperBowl.

Now THAT would be fun to watch!

Originally posted by SofaKing:
Oh pleeeease....

Look, J.J. Watt is a phenomenal player. He looks like a shoe in for the HOF. But based on the personnel that we had going into that draft, picking Aldon was the right call. We have J. Smith and McDonald. Where would Watt fit? Should we have let McDonald go in FA instead? In that scenario we are left without an elite pass-rusher, something that prevented this defense from being a top unit for years.

Aldon is putting up some eye-popping numbers too you know. He has a shot at breaking Reggie White's record as the fastest defender to reach 20 sacks. Reggie-freakin'-White. I think we're doing just fine with Aldon.

We ARE doing just fine with Aldon and when he stops taking plays off, and gets better at LB instead of just a pass rusher, he will be even better. Then, WOW! And I also agree that he fit our needs and personnel better at the time. Who knew Watt would be interplanetary?!
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
You're grasping, dude. I know the whole Watt vs. Aldon thing is ingrained in the premise of this thread, but it's time to let go of the notion that Watt's success in the NFL diminishes Aldon's success. They are both superstars, plain and simple.

As for DPOY, I agree 100% with MD, and your rebuttals are weak. You say it shouldn't be based just on Watt's stats but rather on "other things" like "value to a team's defense overall." Well, the body of stats MD has pointed out show, definitively, that Watt has added the most value to a team's defense overall in the entire NFL. There's no doubt in my mind that he's asked to do more things than Smith and is a more dynamic all-around player (don't take this as a commentary on whom we should have drafted, simply an evaluation of their current seasons).

Here's how I see it. If Aldon is the only one to break 22.5, he will win DPOY over Watt because of the prestige that record carries. If Watt beats Aldon in sacks, Watt will win DPOY. If they both fall short of 22.5, Watt will win DPOY even if Aldon edges him for the sack title. The wild-card is what happens if Aldon beats Watt, but they both break the record (of course, this wouldn't be considered a "record" for Watt in this scenario, but imagine 23.0 for Watt and 23.5 for Aldon). Even though Aldon's name would go in the record books, I could see the voters using Watt's number as justification to give him DPOY. It all comes down to sacks at this point.

Whatever happens, keep in mind Aldon is about to follow this year with another dozen or so opportunities to break the sack record and collect DPOY awards.
Hmm. If I'm "grasping" then you must be reaching, cuz we're pretty much saying the same thing.

One of my questions is, who decides on the DPOY award? Is it coaches, players, fans, media? And is it based strictly on stats?

If its fans and/or media and based solely on stats, Watt should win it.

If its coachs and players, then they make take into account other, intangible factors, and others will likely be in consideration as well.

Thats all I'm saying.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
You're grasping, dude. I know the whole Watt vs. Aldon thing is ingrained in the premise of this thread, but it's time to let go of the notion that Watt's success in the NFL diminishes Aldon's success. They are both superstars, plain and simple.

As for DPOY, I agree 100% with MD, and your rebuttals are weak. You say it shouldn't be based just on Watt's stats but rather on "other things" like "value to a team's defense overall." Well, the body of stats MD has pointed out show, definitively, that Watt has added the most value to a team's defense overall in the entire NFL. There's no doubt in my mind that he's asked to do more things than Smith and is a more dynamic all-around player (don't take this as a commentary on whom we should have drafted, simply an evaluation of their current seasons).

Here's how I see it. If Aldon is the only one to break 22.5, he will win DPOY over Watt because of the prestige that record carries. If Watt beats Aldon in sacks, Watt will win DPOY. If they both fall short of 22.5, Watt will win DPOY even if Aldon edges him for the sack title. The wild-card is what happens if Aldon beats Watt, but they both break the record (of course, this wouldn't be considered a "record" for Watt in this scenario, but imagine 23.0 for Watt and 23.5 for Aldon). Even though Aldon's name would go in the record books, I could see the voters using Watt's number as justification to give him DPOY. It all comes down to sacks at this point.

Whatever happens, keep in mind Aldon is about to follow this year with another dozen or so opportunities to break the sack record and collect DPOY awards.
Hmm. If I'm "grasping" then you must be reaching, cuz we're pretty much saying the same thing.

One of my questions is, who decides on the DPOY award? Is it coaches, players, fans, media? And is it based strictly on stats?

If its fans and/or media and based solely on stats, Watt should win it.

If its coachs and players, then they make take into account other, intangible factors, and others will likely be in consideration as well.

Thats all I'm saying.


I'd say Watt should win it no matter who's voting, unless of course, Aldon ends up with the sack title and breaks Strahan's record. I just think there's no more dominant defensive player right now that J J Watt.
Originally posted by 4evrfan:
I'd say Watt should win it no matter who's voting, unless of course, Aldon ends up with the sack title and breaks Strahan's record. I just think there's no more dominant defensive player right now that J J Watt.
I hear ya. Watt has put up some terrific individual stats, no doubt. It would probably take a record breaking sack record to beat him out of the award.
[ Edited by oldninerdude on Dec 20, 2012 at 5:06 PM ]
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
I hear ya. Watt has put up some terrific individual stats, no doubt. It would probably take a record breaking sack record to beat him out of the award.

I think its entirely possible that Aldon gets the sack record and still loses DPOY to Watt. What he's doing as a 3-4 DE is absolutely and completely mind-boggling, it defies reason.