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MD was right

Originally posted by btthepunk:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by FunkNinerFlex:
Hey MD, Watt would have been a great pick. But if the 49ers selected him, who would have played OLB? Would they have drafted one in the later rounds that year or one last year?

They could have picked up KC's Justin Houston who was a third rounder last year, in Smith's draft. Houston has 10 sacks in 2012. The difference between Smith and Houston is sizable, but the difference between Watt and any other 3-4 DE is astronomical.
I love Aldon but I did want Houston in the draft badly

Yeah I thought he was gonna be good. If it werent for getting caught with weed he wouldve went much higher in the draft. I think I had him as a late first early second rounder.
He was born in Chico.

yep, I have a bad boy in mind for this year.........
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by btthepunk:
I love Aldon Smith, but JJ Watt is most deserving of defensive player of the year. Possibly the most deserving ever. If he was playing for us he would be "The greatest defensive player of all timez!"
I HOPE Aldon gets the award because Im a Niner fan, I try to be unbiased as possible though and can clearly see that Watt should get it.

I dont think I'd say that I wish we had Watt or Smith because who knows if Watt would be playing like that here and I cant assume he would, its possible they still would have extended McDonald and Watt would be a backup.
Watt has had a great year so far, and has posted some great stats.

Aldon has posted some pretty good stats himself. He clearly belongs in any conversation about DPOY awards, along with Von Miller.

But really, that's just a conversation. Who cares who wins it--I'd much rather see the team win, and I'm guessing the players feel the same way.

To that end, I'll take Justin Smith over Watt everyday. Justin sets the standard for team play, even if it means someone else gets the recognition and the glory.

I believe the last sentence of your post is correct. As well as Watt has played this year, statistically, he would not be starting over Justin Smith on the Niners. Watt's still got some things to learn--and I'm not saying he won't learn them, but he's not quite yet on the same level as Justin Smith. IMHO.

JJ Watt seems to be a total team player as well. I wouldve been stoked to have gotten him last year but after resigning McDonald we needed the help at OLB more than DE. One of my best friends is a die hard Texans fan (Houston everything) and we were talking after the draft and we both told each other that they got a great player and would be among the best defenders in the league sooner than later. No joke.
Originally posted by jreff22:
yep, I have a bad boy in mind for this year.........

Mathieu?
Originally posted by btthepunk:
Originally posted by jreff22:
yep, I have a bad boy in mind for this year.........

Mathieu?

Da'rick Rogers

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/169141-jreff22-mock-v20-sneak-peak-finals-edition/
  • AmpLee
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 18,950
This argument is ridiculous. Either guy is a force. If someone would have told you before the draft Aldon Smith would be threatening to break the single season sack record in his second year, while passing Reggie White's two year sack mark and breaking Fred Dean's single season Niner's mark, all the while playing terrific defense against the run and good against the pass, he would have been the number one pick in the draft without question. Either guy has had a hall-of-fame start to their careers. Are we really arguing which potential HOFer is better? Let's not forget Aldon is still on the raw side and has more upside than either Watt or Miller.
All argument aside, how amazing is it that Von Miller, JJ Watt, & Aldon Smith all came out of the same draft? Sweet Jesus! I know it's early in their careers and who knows if injury/ability will allow them to sustain this, but has there ever been a trio of Front 7 players that have been this good through their first 2 seasons?
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
All argument aside, how amazing is it that Von Miller, JJ Watt, & Aldon Smith all came out of the same draft? Sweet Jesus! I know it's early in their careers and who knows if injury/ability will allow them to sustain this, but has there ever been a trio of Front 7 players that have been this good through their first 2 seasons?

should of traded a whole future draft class and gone after Watt
just to make sure.. we're saying we wish we would have gone after a different player than the one who in his first year as a starter, second in the league, has tied the sack team record with a few games to go.. and that same player we wish we would had gotten someone else for has arrived at 30 sacks quicker than everyone to ever play the game, except for 2 others. Cool story, bro. Only in the webzone.
  • AmpLee
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 18,950
Originally posted by JaxinSac:
just to make sure.. we're saying we wish we would have gone after a different player than the one who in his first year as a starter, second in the league, has tied the sack team record with a few games to go.. and that same player we wish we would had gotten someone else for has arrived at 30 sacks quicker than everyone to ever play the game, except for 2 others. Cool story, bro. Only in the webzone.

Seriously.

Imagine how the Bills must feel.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
This argument is ridiculous. Either guy is a force. If someone would have told you before the draft Aldon Smith would be threatening to break the single season sack record in his second year, while passing Reggie White's two year sack mark and breaking Fred Dean's single season Niner's mark, all the while playing terrific defense against the run and good against the pass, he would have been the number one pick in the draft without question. Either guy has had a hall-of-fame start to their careers. Are we really arguing which potential HOFer is better? Let's not forget Aldon is still on the raw side and has more upside than either Watt or Miller.
Good points all. Especially like your last point. Aldon has made great strides in coverage this season, and looks like he will be a great OLB for a long, long time. Playing alongside Justin Smith has helped him, but he has shown great pass rush ability when he rushes from the other side as well.

Watt is a great talent, and is having a great year, statistically. Frankly, though, I couldn't care less about him cuz he's not playing for the Niners. Yeah, he can be fun to watch, especially if Houston is playing a hated Niner rival--Seattle or Dallas or NY--but otherwise, I can't see any reason to constantly praise him or lead his campaign for DPOY on this board. Anyone with that in mind should take it to the Houston fans' website.
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
All argument aside, how amazing is it that Von Miller, JJ Watt, & Aldon Smith all came out of the same draft? Sweet Jesus! I know it's early in their careers and who knows if injury/ability will allow them to sustain this, but has there ever been a trio of Front 7 players that have been this good through their first 2 seasons?
That is quite remarkable.
Hopefully after all of the debate about Watt and Smith will lead us to pick the next super quality player coming out this year and get him on the 49ers. Hopefully one of those players will be a WR.
Watt had one sack taken away from him earlier this season when it was deemed about a month after the fact that Ryan Tannehill was attempting a run play and not a pass play.

However, Watt may pick up a sack down the road for a play this week, when he sacked Jake Locker for a second time on a fourth down inside the Texans red zone. Due to a fumble that happened on the play, Watt was not given a sack, but the team was credited with a "team sack". I am sure the play will be looked at, just like the Tannehill play, and Watt's number might be adjusted to 16.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Here is a current breakdown of the three main candidates, courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats:

Watt: 15.5 sacks; 15 pass defensed (5 for INT's); 59 tackles; 27 tackles for loss; 32 QB hits; 1 forced fumble; 0 INT
Miller: 15 sacks; 2 pass defensed; 53 tackles; 24 tackles for loss; 19 QB hits; 5 forced fumbles; 1 INT (pick six)
Smith: 17.5 sacks; 0 pass defensed; 51 tackles; 15 tackles for loss; 23 QB hits; 3 forced fumbles; 0 INT

Since Miller and Aldon Smith play similar positions, and since Justin Smith is often used as a benchmark for the best 3-4 DE in the game, here is the comparison with Watt:
Justin Smith: 3 sacks; 1 pass defensed; 59 tackles; 9 tackles for loss; 9 QB hits; 0 INT

Final note: Advanced NFL Stats also compiles more obscure stats that breaks down the impact of play on the field, including WPA, EPA, EPA/g, SC and TF. They provide a glossary to break down each stat. Watt's numbers across all of these field stats are far superior to any other defender in the league. Honestly, it is not even close. For stat geeks like myself, it is fun to break down. Take a look to see the numbers; it is fascinating.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Dec 4, 2012 at 8:55 PM ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Watt had one sack taken away from him earlier this season when it was deemed about a month after the fact that Ryan Tannehill was attempting a run play and not a pass play.

However, Watt may pick up a sack down the road for a play this week, when he sacked Jake Locker for a second time on a fourth down inside the Texans red zone. Due to a fumble that happened on the play, Watt was not given a sack, but the team was credited with a "team sack". I am sure the play will be looked at, just like the Tannehill play, and Watt's number might be adjusted to 16.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Here is a current breakdown of the three main candidates:

Watt: 15.5 sacks; 15 pass defensed (5 for INT's); 59 tackles; 27 tackles for loss; 31 QB hits; 1 forced fumble; 0 INT
Miller: 15 sacks; 2 pass defensed; 53 tackles; 24 tackles for loss; 19 QB hits; 5 forced fumbles; 1 INT (pick six)
Smith: 17.5 sacks; 0 pass defensed; 51 tackles; 15 tackles for loss; 23 QB hits; 3 forced fumbles; 0 INT

If one beats the single season sack record and the other 2 don't, that's where the dpoy award is going. Just how these things tend to work.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
If one beats the single season sack record and the other 2 don't, that's where the dpoy award is going. Just how these things tend to work.

I think that's what its gonna take for Aldon to win it. He needs 5.5 in the next 4 games. Definitely doable for him. If he gets at least 2 against Miami, I think he'll get it. It's gonna be exciting watching these 3 over the next decade.