MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis for 2012 NFL Draft

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by fryet:
This thread has your 2011 draft. I would post there, but it is locked:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/154437-maddogs-final-wrap-grade-niners/search=MadDog49er

This was Baalke's home run draft. It is not surprising that in hindsight your analysis was off.

Aldon Smith - You gave a C, and this is definitely an A+. However, your other choice Wyatt, is also an A+.
Colin Kaepernick - You gave a C, and this is also definitely an A+.
Chris Culliver - You gave a C+. That is probably about right. First backup at corner after 2nd season.
Kendall Hunter - You gave an A. I think that might be slightly generous, but first backup at RB in the 4th round is good, so I am quibbling over what I think should be an A- or B+ grade.
Daniel Kilgore - You gave a D. I think he is probably the 49er's best backup. A 5th round pick he is at least a B.
Ronald Johnson and Colin Jones - You gave a C. Johnson was a F, and I think Colin made the team for 1 year. So I think D would be better.
7th rounders - you gave them a F. 2 of 3 didn't make the team, but Miller is a solid choice as our starting FB. So in his case I think he was an A or at least a B.

So how did your picks do in comparison for the 2011 draft?

Here is a copy of my 2011 draft that was in a draft redo thread:
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player
. 7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes. Cheers. [ Edited by MadDog49er on May 21, 2011 at 8:19 PM ]
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/154846-you-could-redo-one-49ers-pick-would-take/#vrwqUZ324cIjUE6b.99

The only player not in the league after cuts is Chinasa.
1. Watt is a monster
2. Hudson starts at center for KC
3. Brown is a reserve CB but may be the best special teamer for the Steelers. Bit of a disappointment at CB
4. Todman backs up Drew-jones in Jax. Had a great preseason
4. Cannon fighting for starting RG spot with NE
5. Taylor backs up Flacco for Balt
6. Clay starting TE for Dolphins
6. Rogers might start for Buffalo in Week one at CB
6. Powe is reserve DT
7. Chinasa out of league
7. Johnson top reserve safety for Seahawks and special teams star
7. Sanzenbacher made the cut for the Bengals at WR.

Ve

Excellent overall draft class (might have 4 or 5 opening day starters this year) with depth (5 of my 6 players in the 6th and 7th rounders still in the league and on a 53 man roster...this is nearly impossible in year 3) made spectacular with Watt, who may be the best player in the game. Baalke had a great draft. People can debate which group they like better, although it is still early in everyone's career to make a final grade.

Kap alone will win us more games than Watt would have and we did get Aldon and his 33.5 sacks as well. I like the draft we had much better

Point being made is that the hero worship of Baalke by many for the 2011 draft class, which was superb, can burn to ashes at any point. The draft is witchcraft and those who think they know it all have no idea what they are talking about because there are going to be a LOT of misses. The guys who are the best are the ones that prove better than the rest over the long haul, and even then face the horror of what could have been, because everyone misses.....A LOT.

Some on this board feel great joy when I miss on a player and heap their wrath, yet dismiss Baalks's poor judgment, Those people can't have it both ways. Either Baalke has to hit a home run every time, or a little grace is shown toward me when I miss. I don't need sympathy, but fairness would be...fair.

Some think I come across as arrogant in my analysis, but the reality is that the draft is a constant lesson in humility. I do think I am damn good at this, and anyone can track my picks over the years to judge for themselves. However, I am one bad set of tacos from having a Baalke 2012 draft, and that constantly stares me in the face. Nobody is truly great at this, or they would be wearing handfuls of Super Bowl rings, and would have selected Joe Montana in either the first or second round of his draft.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

It's not even close. Not too mention, MD was clamoring for us to pick Gabbert, not Watt. Quite revisionist if you ask me. In fact, Gabbert was MD's 4 best player on the Niners board while Watt was 8th. MD likes to take credit for calling Watt's greatness, but he had quite a few guys ahead of him.

Not true. I did not advocate taking a QB early in the 2012 draft since I wanted Harbaugh to have a year with Smith first.

I did have Gabbert number four in one of my Big Boards, which is a draft projection, not a best board.

As for my best board in 2011, the top 5 were:
1. Green
2. Peterson
3. Miller
4. Dareus
5. Watt

Stop trolling and making up lies, Amp.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

The issue is not of the adulation others have of Baalke, it's the admonishment you had towards our front office to the point you were calling for their heads and calling anything positive they did "lucky". Generally, people appreciate your input and knowledge, but it's always been the condescension you've carried towards those who've disagreed with your viewpoints, and the self-elevation of your opinion, that have opened windows for others to call you out on things you were wrong about. If you acted in a humble nature, I'm sure no one would give a damn if you thought Gabbert would be great and Kaep was too great of a risk. It's a great parlor game to prognosticate, but that's all it is. At the end of the day, we as fans have a much more limited view on these players and we must at some point admit that our FO may know what they are doing until proven incompetent.

You are living in the past. I have moved on.

Just stop fabricating things like in your previous post. It is simply not true and you know it.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Lies, huh?...




And in a thread titled, "Your 49ers top 7 if you were making the board on draft day"...

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I see the top 4 guys as Pro-Bowl caliber players. I don't see Gabbert as a Pro-Bowler, but just like Sam Bradford, a solid NFL QB in that next tier down in a few years. I do not agree with Mayock in that way. A legit Pro-Bowler is a Pro-Bowler (there are a fair amount of phony Pro-Bowlers every year based on tradition, popularity, etc.). He is the best at what he does. The next level down is the next level down. Now, if both are Pro-Bowl type players, then the QB surely trumps everything.

Still wanna call me a liar and troll? SMFH.

Please post the link

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Lies, huh?...




And in a thread titled, "Your 49ers top 7 if you were making the board on draft day"...

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I see the top 4 guys as Pro-Bowl caliber players. I don't see Gabbert as a Pro-Bowler, but just like Sam Bradford, a solid NFL QB in that next tier down in a few years. I do not agree with Mayock in that way. A legit Pro-Bowler is a Pro-Bowler (there are a fair amount of phony Pro-Bowlers every year based on tradition, popularity, etc.). He is the best at what he does. The next level down is the next level down. Now, if both are Pro-Bowl type players, then the QB surely trumps everything.

Still wanna call me a liar and troll? SMFH.

This post, when you finally add the link was probably from February, since Marcel Dareus hadn't Had his March 11 ProDay. So, this was well before, probably two months before the draft. Thanks for posting link. march 2 posting.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Lies, huh?...




And in a thread titled, "Your 49ers top 7 if you were making the board on draft day"...

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I see the top 4 guys as Pro-Bowl caliber players. I don't see Gabbert as a Pro-Bowler, but just like Sam Bradford, a solid NFL QB in that next tier down in a few years. I do not agree with Mayock in that way. A legit Pro-Bowler is a Pro-Bowler (there are a fair amount of phony Pro-Bowlers every year based on tradition, popularity, etc.). He is the best at what he does. The next level down is the next level down. Now, if both are Pro-Bowl type players, then the QB surely trumps everything.

Still wanna call me a liar and troll? SMFH.

The link you provided for the Gabbert at 4,Watt at 8 was January 3. Come on, dude. That is ridiculous.

MadDog49er Veteran Posts: 14,561 Originally posted by AB83Rules: For anyone to answer, whether its OTC, MD, Ghost or a regular poster, who are your guys who u think are franchise players. Or at the very least Impact players, and the potential risks. Mine: My 3 Impact/Franchise Players; LSU CB Patrick Peterson Alabama DT Marcell Dareus Georgia WR A.J. Green Players with tons of upside, just unsure of them. UNC OLB Robert Quinn TX A&M OLB Von Miller And then risky picks Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert Auburn QB Cam Newton Auburn DT Nick Fairley Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers I have built my board based on impact. Right now, here is how I would rank the best: 1) AJ Green- Elite WR who is a game changer. Not at the level of Calvin Johnson, but a Pro-Bowl player at the next level. 2) Patrick Peterson- Elite as a CB. Keep the weight down, young man. I think he is a big drop-off as a safety. Another future Pro-Bowler. 3) Von Miller- The system is going to make or break Miller. Better than Aaron Curry coming out of college, but really needs a 3-4 alignment to maximize his skills. If he keeps his weight up, I see a Pro-Bowl spot for him in a 3-4. 4) Marcel Dareus- Not at Suh's level last year, but could be a dominant 3-4 NT if put in that position. Probably will be stuck in Denver, so grab the oxygen mask. Potential Pro-Bowler if things fall his way. 5) JJ Watt- He is the best 3-4 DE in this draft class, but he needs to avoid a 4-3 team. I think he could easily be a Pro-Bowler if put in the right scheme. I believe he is the best athlete over 275 pounds in this draft, and he is only going to get better. 6) Blaine Gabbert- Is he Andrew Luck? No! But is he the best QB in this class? Yes, and it is not close. Once again, scheme will be huge. Carolina or Buffalo is going to take him, and there is no way he is dropping below Cincinnati at 4. Smart, great arm, just needs work. Pro-Bowler? Doubtful. Solid franchise QB for a baker's dozen years? Yes. 7) Ryan Williams- Shaking up my RB board over the last month, I think Williams is going to be special at the next level. I'm not sure for how many years, but his explosiveness and ability to break big runs is going to be fun to watch. I'd grade him above Gabbert, except for the length of career (how many good years can RB's rack up). The guys that are risky to me: Cam Newton- boom or bust. I actually think he will be decent in this league. He's going to make a lot of people scream in joy one minute and horror the next, but there is no doubt he is going to be exciting. Robert Quinn- A mistake for a 3-4 team. He needs to have his hand on the ground, all the time. Although the tumor has not given him problems thus far, it is a risk for me. Nick Fairley- I see bust written all over him. I don't see much effort at the next level, which is a total waste of talent. Wouldn't be on my board. He's strictly a 4-3 undertackle. Bowers- Also, not on my board. Strictly a 4-3 DE. The knee is a concern, but his size is another. If he gets to 285 or 290 lbs., what is he going to do? I don't see a solid future in the NFL. All QB's are risky. The reason I grade Ponder and Mallett lower than expected on my best boards is in regards to health factors. I think Ponder, a terrific college QB, may be injury prone (some guys simply are not freaks who escape injury), and Mallett is way too stationary. He is going to get killed in the NFL. Guys with upside? Corey Liuget, Derek Sherrod (the top LT on my board), Torrey Smith (better than Julio Jones), Phil Taylor (will be a 15 year toilet clogger in the NFL). [ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 1, 2011 at 7:50 PM ] Edit Quote Quote+
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/153568-question-all-you-draft-nuts/page2/#ef2XzJyWoxPZZ02o.99

April 1 posting- In the following weeks, I continued to drop Gabbert down my board. The top 5 remained the same.

The truth shall set you free.

Since it is 1:45 AM, and I found the magical link, I will call it a night.

Just know, good people- I never revise history, never attempt to cover up errors. I have in the past, and will in the future, admit when I am wrong, I speak from the heart, full of conviction, and neve shy from throwing myself out there.

Cheers, and good night,

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Since it is 1:45 AM, and I found the magical link, I will call it a night.

Just know, good people- I never revise history, never attempt to cover up errors. I have in the past, and will in the future, admit when I am wrong, I speak from the heart, full of conviction, and neve shy from throwing myself out there.

Cheers, and good night,

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Since it is 1:45 AM, and I found the magical link, I will call it a night.

Just know, good people- I never revise history, never attempt to cover up errors. I have in the past, and will in the future, admit when I am wrong, I speak from the heart, full of conviction, and neve shy from throwing myself out there.

Cheers, and good night,

That post is the exact perfect example of why people can't stand Maddog.

Well played, Lee.
Bottom line is is, if Watt, Aldon and Dareus were all available, Maddog would have taken Dareus.

Maybe this is all lost on me, but I just don't get all the hate against MadDog. Just look at our savior Trent Baalke's 2012 draft to see that even the most reputable draft evaluators get it horribly wrong. The 2012 draft was so bad that if it weren't for the epic 2011 draft Baalke should be fired. Show me a single person in the world that put Watt over Dareus or Aldon Smith top 5, or Colin Kaepernick top 10. Heck, I give myself kudos everyday because I was one of the only people that actually liked the Aldon Smith pick as I saw he was a a pure and natural pass rusher (a rare trait).

We all know that MadDog was on the JJ Watt bandwagon and was completely right on that. He, along with most "draftniks" drank the Blaine Gabbert kool-aid and missed on that.

MadDog does what he does out of his passion for the game and the NFL draft. We don't pay him to spend his time creating big boards or to give us his scouting reports. He does so because he has a passion that very few of us are lucky to have in our lives. I personally appreciate that he shares his opinion with us all and his insight gained after years and years of analyzing the draft and watching college football.

We all love the draft and the 49ers more than 99.999% of the world. We have so much in common and all want the same thing. Why can't we just get along?

Lets turn down the heat in here. When it gets personal, things get unpleasant. I don't care how right you think you are and how wrong the other guy is.

Stop.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Originally posted by English:
Lets turn down the heat in here. When it gets personal, things get unpleasant. I don't care how right you think you are and how wrong the other guy is.

Stop.

Calm down. No one stepped over the line and a post hasn't been made since yesterday. No need to remind others of your presence.

meh, you're trolling MD as usual

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Originally posted by English:

Lets turn down the heat in here. When it gets personal, things get unpleasant. I don't care how right you think you are and how wrong the other guy is.

Stop.

Calm down. No one stepped over the line and a post hasn't been made since yesterday. No need to remind others of your presence.