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MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis for 2012 NFL Draft

Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
I am DIE HARD niner fan and I love the draft, but I don't have the time to review all players before the actual draft. But now I've watched Jenkins against tape of the other WR (Wright, Hill, Sanu, Streeter, Blackmon, Floyd)......it's surprising that he wasn't rated higher. Jenkins is not just a "speed" guy, he is productive, got the speed, has decent height and didn't have the best Qb's throwing to him.

People talked a lot about Streeter and Hill because they are big and 6 4 and 215 and really fast (4.36), but neither of those guys have hardly any college production compared to Jenkins. Those guys wouldn't be in the conversation at all except for the combine. Even I thought the Niners could have used Streeter in the 5th round, but Jenkins is a much better prospect. If you listen to the draft gurus (mayock and kiper) said Streeter and hill are superraw and only really run the 9 route. so that is MASSIVE gamble you are taking. Jenkins is way more pro ready than those guys.

I agree to some extent that no matter who we pick we are going to be biased. But the true football fans on the board can watch college tape and make their own decisions give us a little credit.

Not trying to insult any Niners fans, and I hope they don't take it the wrong way. This was really directed toward one member who eagerly critiques my draft without really knowing the players. The basis of his argument is that the Niners selected them, so the players must be good. That is not an unbiased, fair, rational way to approach the draft in our grading.

As stated in this thread, I believe, I challenged one poster who did not believe in this bias to post a DeCastro or Looney thread. I said the results wold come out about 60-40 for DeCastro, even though if DeCastro was the Niners selection, the number would be 99-1 percent. I was not far off. Right now the number is 66-34 percent for DeCastro.

I am also somewhat limited in time, but still dedicate an enormous amount of time following the players through their careers, in the postseason, etc. And, when it comes down to it, it is one man's opinion. But to challenge my draft from the standpoint of, I really don't know the players but I know you are wrong because the Niners did ( fill in the blank) is not a strong argument.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 4, 2012 at 12:29 PM ]
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Anything MadDog49er says I disagree with.

[ Edited by WWFGD on May 4, 2012 at 1:04 PM ]
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I voted twice for Looney because I read this thread first. Couldn't help myself
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.
So by your reasoning, ANY grade given after the draft must contain some bias. That would obviously include your own.

Please note that I have not given any grades, either to your "mock" selections, to the Niners selections, or to their draft as a whole.

Apparently your grades are based on the "anti-fan" theory that any pick made by the Niners must not be very good, since some fans will favor the pick just because it was a Niner pick. You say, in essence: "All fans must be wrong to support any Niner pick, so no Niner pick is any good."

Your admitted anti-Baalke bias distorts your view of the Niner draft just as surely as any fan's enthusiastic support for the team may color their view of the Niner picks. And that's true irrespective of whether one learns more about players before the draft, or after.

You post that you've been following Jenkins and watching him for years, undoubtedly because he played at Illinois and you live in Ohio--Big Ten territory. I live in California, and frequently watched LeMichael James play throughout his career at Oregon. So I may not have known as much about Jenkins as I did about LMJ, prior to the draft. But that doesn't mean I haven't done any research about them, both.

I also get to see every Niner game, either live or on local TV. How many Niner games have you been to in the past, say three years? Those games are not broadcast locally in Ohio. So you're stuck with highlights on ESPN, local newspaper reports, or watching games once in awhile down at some restaurant or bar. Based on that, one could argue that you're not paying close enough attention to the Niners to really have a full understanding of the changes in the team over the past year or so, and because of that, you really aren't very well prepared to evaluate their draft strategy or their picks. When's the last time you went to a Niner game, or training camp session?

That kind of conjecture cuts both ways.

I don't claim to be an draft expert, nor did I compare your "mock" to the Niner's draft in order to evaluate or defend either of them. I simply wanted to use the comparison as a means to better understand what the Niners were trying to accomplish in this years draft. It was a very helpful exercise, for me, in that regard.

Sorry if you were upset because your selections did not get sufficient praise. Wasn't my intent to offend, just to compare. Your own grades and written evaluations of each of the Niners' selections were a consideration in the comparisons made. It was easy, for example, to show that Trent Robinson was a better pick for the team in the 5th round partially because you gave him high marks. On the other hand, your pick for that round, RB Vick Ballard, would be competing for time behind not just Gore, but behind Hunter, Jacobs, Dixon, and Cartwright. I don't need to know how Ballard scored on the Wonderlic, or what he had for breakfast, or what his major was in college, to see that he'd have his work cut out for him just to make the team.

You state: "I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver [sic] on whether the team selects a player or not." Being honest about the draft does not mean you have to downgrade every single Niner selection, sometimes in spite of your own evaluation. An example: Fleming: "A good football player. Athletic, quick and productive." Your own words, and you make him sound like an above average pick for a fifth rounder. Yet you give his selection a "D" grade. You had to stretch the facts and "speculate" (imagine) that he's only 6'1" and taken as an ILB, in order to argue that he's not a good fit for the team. That doesn't sound like an honest evaluation, based on your own words.

Obviously, honest, fair and impartial draft evaluations are a good thing. Your claim that you are providing those is somewhat belied by your own words, however. Too many criticisms based on speculation, unsupported hypotheticals, meritless claims.

It raises an interesting question: Which is worse, a fan who supports his team and roots for each and every draft selection to be successful, or a draft "expert" who ignores his own stated evaluations in order to criticize a team's draft? The former may be a fanatic; the latter is being unfair.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
I am DIE HARD niner fan and I love the draft, but I don't have the time to review all players before the actual draft. But now I've watched Jenkins against tape of the other WR (Wright, Hill, Sanu, Streeter, Blackmon, Floyd)......it's surprising that he wasn't rated higher. Jenkins is not just a "speed" guy, he is productive, got the speed, has decent height and didn't have the best Qb's throwing to him.

People talked a lot about Streeter and Hill because they are big and 6 4 and 215 and really fast (4.36), but neither of those guys have hardly any college production compared to Jenkins. Those guys wouldn't be in the conversation at all except for the combine. Even I thought the Niners could have used Streeter in the 5th round, but Jenkins is a much better prospect. If you listen to the draft gurus (mayock and kiper) said Streeter and hill are superraw and only really run the 9 route. so that is MASSIVE gamble you are taking. Jenkins is way more pro ready than those guys.

I agree to some extent that no matter who we pick we are going to be biased. But the true football fans on the board can watch college tape and make their own decisions give us a little credit.

Not trying to insult any Niners fans, and I hope they don't take it the wrong way. This was really directed toward one member who eagerly critiques my draft without really knowing the players. The basis of his argument is that the Niners selected them, so the players must be good. That is not an unbiased, fair, rational way to approach the draft in our grading.

As stated in this thread, I believe, I challenged one poster who did not believe in this bias to post a DeCastro or Looney thread. I said the results wold come out about 60-40 for DeCastro, even though if DeCastro was the Niners selection, the number would be 99-1 percent. I was not far off. Right now the number is 66-34 percent for DeCastro.

I am also somewhat limited in time, but still dedicate an enormous amount of time following the players through their careers, in the postseason, etc. And, when it comes down to it, it is one man's opinion. But to challenge my draft from the standpoint of, I really don't know the players but I know you are wrong because the Niners did ( fill in the blank) is not a strong argument.

MadDog, I tend to agree with most everything you say and hate to see people nitpick at your opinions.

Being the most raw, natural pass rusher in the draft I wanted Aldon Smith badly, but didn't see any way that we would draft him (given that he projected in the late teens to early 20's and many felt he was a better fit for a 4-3). I could still see where you were coming from in preferring JJ Watt as a better scheme fit, and safer pick.

Unfortunately, I also don't see the the value or the same elite ability in AJ Jenkins as I saw in Aldon Smith.

I believe that Balke is getting too cute with his selections in trying to look at specific elite traits in a player and projecting them as better players based on these measurable traits (trying the Billy Beane sabermetrics approach). Last year it was Aldon Smith and his unique arm length. This year it is AJ Jenkins and his hand size/arm length/40. Aldon Smith was a great prospect and a great natural pass rusher. His arms may have been an asset for doing this, but it was not his arm length in particular that made him the elite athlete that he is. He has violent hands, a high motor, can rush inside and out, and displayed such a natural ability to rush the passer. We hit a homerun on Aldon, I'm just afraid that we did it for the wrong reasons and that in hitting on Aldon Smith, this faulty approach is vindicated in Baalke's eyes.

If it was really explosion we were targeting we could have gotten this in spades with our later picks. I'm no expert, but am entitled to my opinion (as are all of us here). If I were the GM, my draft would have been as follows:

1) Cordy Glenn
2) Rueben Randle
4) Joe Adams (I would have traded out of the 3rd as well as there were too many good players at non-positions of need, but would have used the 4th round pick)
4) Josh Norman
5) Chris Rainey
6) Markelle Martin
6) David Molk
7) Cam Johnson

Time will tell which draft will be better, but I just don't see any level of ability that the 1st and 2nd day of Baalke's draft brings, that Day 3 of mine doesn't.

As far as 49er fans hyping up our picks. It is UNREAL. Colin Kaepernick being voted the best QB and Joe Looney being neck and neck with David Decastro is absurd.

If you could show me one "Joe Looney Bandwagon" thread or even mention leading up to the draft then I will rest my case. Looney, while a solid run blocker throughout college, looked terrible in one practice at the Senior Bowl and hurt his foot in the process. Decastro on the other hand has done nothing but dominate both in college, combine, and pro day. While Looney may very well end up a solid player and pick, what has changed between now and two weeks ago other than the fact that Looney was drafted by the 49ers? Any player can sound good in theory when you look at the height/weight/highlights, these are NFL players, and now that they are 49ers these 49er fans are trying so hard to make them into something that they're not.
[ Edited by 49oz2superbowl on May 4, 2012 at 6:02 PM ]
i like how people are ignoring the only valid criticism. i really do. lulz.
One thing I have been seeing a lot with Jenkins and James as far as grades go is: Jenkins and James are good players but they reached for Jenkins and didn't need James because of the crowded backfield so you get a D or F. Not only on here but a lot of expert grades. We aren't just drafting for now we are drafting for the future and to hopefully build a dynasty. That takes more than one good year and we have to keep replenishing the talent pool for that to happen. So even if Jenkins doesn't contribute much this year Williams, Ginn and Moss are all FA's after this year. All 3 could be gone leaving Crabtree, Manningham and Jenkins. Hard to believe we don't need him. Same with James... personally I wait a year to replace Gore but let's face it even though he did well last year he isn't his old self. He might have a year or two left. Dixon is probably gone, Cartwright is a ST player... Jacobs is on a 1 year deal. Leaves possibly Gore, James and Hunter for next year. Doesn't look like overkill to me. We needed playmakers... guys who can take it to the house... explosion... really lacked that last year (vd might be our only game changer on O). So even if they can't contribute right away they will eventually... we needed playmakers on O and we got them. Just have to look at the bigger picture.
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Awesome!!

there is no fighting in the draft war room
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Originally posted by zugschef:
i like how people are ignoring the only valid criticism. i really do. lulz.

Enlighten me. What is the only valid criticism that is being ignored?
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Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by buck:
If you refrained from remarks such as those highlighted in bold, this discussion would be more civil.

I find your charge that some fans are not honest and your implied assertion that you are honest to be particularly irksome.

First, the charge borders on the banal as there can always be some fans who are not honest.
Second, instead of painting with a broad brush, challenge those individuals who you feel are not honest.

If you are skeptical, I encourage you to go ahead and post a "Who will be a better NFL guard: DeCastro or Looney"? Pre-draft, this would probably be a 99%-1% vote for DeCastro, and people would be relentlessly slamming the poll as the stupidest thing they have ever seen. Post draft, my guess would be 60%-40% DeCastro, but there would be a lot of anti-DeCastro sentiment. We saw the same results last year with the post-draft, "Who will be the best NFL quarterback from this class?" thread. Want to take a wild guess who won?

If DeCastro was selected by the Niners, this board would be fighting to get in as many DeCastro Pro-Bowl Bound threads as possible, and people would never even think about Looney. I'm not so sure there are more than ten people who knew Looney going into the draft. You could run a similar thread for any pre and post draft WR thread on who will be the best WR in the draft. Run that one for fun as well.

The point being that fans desperately want their players to succeed, and this alters their ability to make a fair judgment on a player. It is not an honest way to evaluate talent and future success. It is not criminal, it is human nature. But, it is not accurate.

I am skeptical. I followed your suggestion and created the poll. "Who will be a better NFL guard: DeCastro or Looney"?

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/165578-who-better-nfl-guard-decastro-looney/#post1

You are a fan.

I strongly urge you to curb or control that mind altering desperation that limits your ability to make a fair judgement of a player.

I understand that it is difficult for you to do this.

But, if you want members to trust your talent evaluation, you must learn to control this desperation that so limits your integrity and clouds your judgement .

I wrote the below in the poll thread, but it also fits in this thread.

There have been 1,899 Views on this thread. edit: Now. there have 3,696 Views

There have been only 99 votes. The vote stands at 72% to 28% edit: There have been 209 votes. The vote now stands at 75% to 25%.

I just do not think your prediction can be accurately be classified as dead on.

I do not deny the existence of a bias in favor of 49er players.

In fact, given that this is forum dedicated to 49ers, it does seem logical to expect such a bias to exist.

Again, I urge you stop painting with a broad brush and challenge those individuals that you feel are not honest.

Cheers.
[ Edited by buck on May 8, 2012 at 7:03 PM ]

Originally posted by buck:
Enlighten me. What is the only valid criticism that is being ignored?
that you don't draft a right guard in round one, if you want to be a winning team.

other than that, i purposely hyperbolized.
Originally posted by zugschef:
that you don't draft a right guard in round one, if you want to be a winning team.

other than that, i purposely hyperbolized.

if that is your only hole than ya you would draft one in first roud...

how would that not make you a winnign team?
Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
I am DIE HARD niner fan and I love the draft, but I don't have the time to review all players before the actual draft. But now I've watched Jenkins against tape of the other WR (Wright, Hill, Sanu, Streeter, Blackmon, Floyd)......it's surprising that he wasn't rated higher. Jenkins is not just a "speed" guy, he is productive, got the speed, has decent height and didn't have the best Qb's throwing to him.

People talked a lot about Streeter and Hill because they are big and 6 4 and 215 and really fast (4.36), but neither of those guys have hardly any college production compared to Jenkins. Those guys wouldn't be in the conversation at all except for the combine. Even I thought the Niners could have used Streeter in the 5th round, but Jenkins is a much better prospect. If you listen to the draft gurus (mayock and kiper) said Streeter and hill are superraw and only really run the 9 route. so that is MASSIVE gamble you are taking. Jenkins is way more pro ready than those guys.

I agree to some extent that no matter who we pick we are going to be biased. But the true football fans on the board can watch college tape and make their own decisions give us a little credit.

Man do I agree with that statement....

I've seen a lot of mock draft boards over the past several months and many of them had Stephen Hill and even Alshon Jeffery rated ahead of Jenkins. The former has an extremely raw game and is unlikely to contribute much his first season (other than perhaps as a blocker), and the latter has major character issues not to mention real questions about his work ethic, love for the game, and attention to detail.....all traits that many teams place a high value on.

It appears now that many draft experts don't take into account many of the criteria that a lot of NFL teams (especially the good ones) do when selecting a player.... Instead they tend to focus and place way too much emphasis on sheer physical traits and athleticism. With the trend towards bigger WRs lately (Calvin Johnson being the poster child for this trend), I've noticed that draftniks are really getting carried away overrating guys based on their size and 40-yard dash times.

The Niners clearly did their due diligence before they selected Jenkins and obviously, they feel great about the choice. I'm cool with it...

Cheers!
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.
Uh, not so hard to find support for Jenkins on this board predraft. Theres a whole thread devoted to him which was started in January, well before the draft.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.
Uh, not so hard to find support for Jenkins on this board predraft. Theres a whole thread devoted to him which was started in January, well before the draft.

i actually wouldve perfered randle but that doesnt mean im not happy to get jenkins i just felt randle has speed is big bodied and pro ready
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