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The term "reach" and the irony of the webzone during draft time.

Not sure this subject needs a whole new thread but...... here we go.

If the 49ers had traded up to lets say 20 to draft Coby Fleener or Stephen Hill the Webzone (most of it) would have been ecstatic, lauded for going up and getting "their guy".

The reality of that situation is that it would have been a waste of picks and a 12-20 pick reach based on the fact that they are both STILL available.

The 49ers instead picked Aj Jenkins a WR who if not taken by the 49ers would have been picked 3 picks later by the STL Rams.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/rams-miss-out-on-jenkins/article_02ddc12d-b649-5ef0-84f4-02f6487fb11d.html


So when the Zone or any outsider without access to teams drafts boards yell Reach please keep it in perspective. Your perception it not necessarily based on reality.
[ Edited by natrone06 on Apr 27, 2012 at 5:55 AM ]
thanks...


http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/162094-aj-jenkins-wr-illinois/page9/
I think most of everybody on this board learned their lesson last year. For the most part, everyone seems to trust Baalke on this pick.
no so much of a reach now knowing of the Rams intentions.
Good post and totally agree.
Not that much of a reach, since the Rams were all over him. I had Jenkins going at 37, so it was in the neighborhood. I think the disappointment by many fans is that they saw better players on the board, and I agree with their sentiment (although Fleener was not amongst the short list)
Yeah I can live with it but it was hard to stomach considering our luck with 1st round WR and that there were so many good defensive players with 1st round grades still available. I just dont see how he's even going to see the field this season. We could have added a DB or pass rusher that would at least work into some sort of a rotation. Jenkins will be lucky if he even gets to suit up for a real game. All he did was take Kyle Williams spot on the bottom of the depth chart.
Yeah I can live with it but it was hard to stomach considering our luck with 1st round WR and that there were so many good defensive players with 1st round grades still available. I just dont see how he's even going to see the field this season. We could have added a DB or pass rusher that would at least work into some sort of a rotation. Jenkins will be lucky if he even gets to suit up for a real game. All he did was take Kyle Williams spot on the bottom of the depth chart.
reach...................around
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Not that much of a reach, since the Rams were all over him. I had Jenkins going at 37, so it was in the neighborhood. I think the disappointment by many fans is that they saw better players on the board, and I agree with their sentiment (although Fleener was not amongst the short list)

Must of been so excited to see Konz and Glenn still on the board
Great OP post and topic. I got fed up with reading mock draft comments where "so-and-so" player was said to be a reach or not worth the value,

So I've been playing with spreadsheets over the last few weeks using annual salaries from the rookie contracts in the past 3 drafts (2009-2011) to see if there was any validity in this from an NFL team's financial viewpoint. Bottom line in my opinion is that from a financial perspective the idea of reach or value is pretty irrelevant a lot sooner in the draft than I would have thought.

For example, using the 2011 draft, once you hit the mid-second round picks (mid-40's) you are paying the player on average about $200K more per year than an equivalently positioned 3rd rounder and $500K more per year than the 7th rounder. This differential decreases by second pick 58 or so to around $100K per year from the 3rd rounder and $300K from the 7th.

By mid 3rd round you're talking about $100K from the 4th and $200K from the 7th. And, by the end of the 3rd round you're looking at less than $100K annual salary differential between that pick and any remaining pick in the draft.

The 2009-2011 average figures show very little difference (more expensive 7th rounders and vastly less expensive early 1st rounders main change in 2011).

In my opinion, at the worst once you're out of the middle of the second round, there's very little relevance to reach and value. And this may even hold true once you're out of the top 10 in the first round. If you don't take the player who's the best fit for your team regardles of cost/round, you're simply betting that noone else does before your next pick. And that to me would be pretty dumb financially at a cap figure of $120M + and a limited roster.




My thinking is this. The staff decided that they wanted AJ Jenkins early on, thinking that he would be the best of what was left. Meaning that Fleener, Hill and the other expected high picks would be gone. They convinced themselves so much that when our pick came up and all those guys were still on the board they could not pull away from the guy that they had sworn to draft in AJ Jenkins. I have no idea how this pick will turn out, but to me it seems like Baalke and co might have gotten a little arrogant. Hope this guy turns out to be good.
I've no clue whether Jenkins will be good, poor, a Pro Bowler (figuratively since that thing mercifully gets canned :)) or a famous bust. And neither does anyone here. I am amused however by two things.

(1) The same people who derided about half the other teams for "reaching" in the live Draft thread last night (particularly the NFC West ones), are the same who are crowing today about our guys' unflappability and taking their guy in whatever spot.

(2) All this "Draft Grading" that takes place fifteen milliseconds after each pick, according to where a player was ranked on some hallowed "Major Draft Boards" in the internet. Who cares? What's this bizarre obsession with "cutting a sweet deal".

I have as great a respect for the Browns and (yuck) Cowboys who "overpaid" last night to get their guy, as to us for "reaching". Who cares what some draftnik nerd says? It's a hiring fair, not a beauty contest.

For the record, I hoped we would trade up for De Castro. I was hoping we would trade up even to the teens and get him, and when he slipped to the mid 20s I was REALLY hoping to see us jump up on the board. But obviously he wasn't our guys' guy. We'll see whether they've been right or wrong... in three years. But I really wish the idiotic term "reach" is abolished from NFL coverage.
Originally posted by JBatta49erfansince81:
My thinking is this. The staff decided that they wanted AJ Jenkins early on, thinking that he would be the best of what was left. Meaning that Fleener, Hill and the other expected high picks would be gone. They convinced themselves so much that when our pick came up and all those guys were still on the board they could not pull away from the guy that they had sworn to draft in AJ Jenkins. I have no idea how this pick will turn out, but to me it seems like Baalke and co might have gotten a little arrogant. Hope this guy turns out to be good.

no way, they're not morons.
Originally posted by JBatta49erfansince81:
My thinking is this. The staff decided that they wanted AJ Jenkins early on, thinking that he would be the best of what was left. Meaning that Fleener, Hill and the other expected high picks would be gone. They convinced themselves so much that when our pick came up and all those guys were still on the board they could not pull away from the guy that they had sworn to draft in AJ Jenkins. I have no idea how this pick will turn out, but to me it seems like Baalke and co might have gotten a little arrogant. Hope this guy turns out to be good.

So that idea of putting his name in the envelope clearly means you like him. Does that also mean that you thought you liked him a little more than other teams might, that he would still be there?

"You never know. We joked around last week and had a little fun with it, and I made the mention that we had a guy in mind. It could have been anybody, right? I could have picked anybody right now and said, 'that was the guy.' We had more than one person that we were excited about and you just line up the board, you go through that 365 day process to get to this day and you let the board speak and best player available. That's where it was, he was the best player on the board at the time, we felt, and we had opportunities to trade back and chose not to because we had the player valued where we picked him."