Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:I believe that if he is healthy and stays that way, he will be one of the best receivers in this class. He is a complete wideout in my mind. Without the injury he's a first rounder. I have him going in the fourth right now.
I like him a lot too. I think I picked him in my mock draft a while back. That said, I don't think he's the #2 rated WR in this draft. I'll defer to you on that...but it sounds like with your comment of him going in the 4th, you might want to look at your spreadsheet which suggests that the niners should take him in the 2nd..if not at #30
That said, great job!! Thanks...I always appreciated the work you and MD put into draft time. It makes it a lot more fun for the rest of us.
I understand what you're getting at. When it comes to things like injuries, the board can appear a little inconsistent, since during the draft, I would consider the risk in determining at what selection range the risk is no longer an issue. I should probably note that while I do move players based on character red flags, injuries do not affect my talent grades.
If I believed Childs to be fully healthy now and attributed his low 2011 numbers only due to recovering and probably trying to come back too soon, then I would be willing to take him at the end of the 2nd, with consideration for the injury risk. If he had never gotten hurt, I'd definitely be advocating taking him at 30. But this kind of thing will vary from player to player.
I predict him to go in the 4th because deep down I feel teams will be a little apprehensive still about the injury, but I think he could go as high as the 3rd. For my board, examples of players whose talent grades remain unfazed by an injury: WR Childs, WR Broyles, CB Minnifield, OG Looney, C Konz, RB Gray, DE Crick, S Martin.
Again, I understand it may seem slightly inconsistent because for players recovering from significant injuries, the grade does not match up with where the selection itself would be made by me. What you are seeing in this board is the player's base grade.
Simply put (or complexly if you have trouble with equations), my formulas are...
PLAYER'S BASE GRADE
= (Talent + Production + Upside + Experience + Intelligence + Measurables) - Character concerns
PLAYER'S WEIGHTED SLOT VALUE
= (Talent + Production + Upside + Experience + Intelligence + Measurables) - (Character concerns) - [X(injury risk)]
Where X = an assigned variable value based on severity of an injury or healthy problem, and "injury risk" is a variable relating to their durability and frequencies of injuries in the past. The reason I don't include that in the base grade is because if their injury history is so significant, the other variables will already be very low because of little opportunity to show anything.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 25, 2012 at 7:45 PM ]