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MadDog's Big 253 Board- April 18th Edition

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
My picks based on your board:

1 - Janoris Jenkins, worth the risk
2 - Brandon Brooks, need an interior lineman
3 - Kirk Cousins, value pick here. I'm confident he will be at least a solid starter in the NFL with his arm and release, he just needs to develop. I'm a fan of Matthews so he is hard to pass up as I had him as my "sleeper" way early on this year, him against Boise State the previous year was eye opening. He made Kaep look like a stud
4 - Greg Childs, great size and great speed. IMO a development project though
5 - Kelcie McCray, I think he will be one of the best safeties out of a weak class
6 - Michael Brewster, I want a young center to develop to take over
7 - Markus Kuhn, 3-4 DE to develop
greg childs isnt a development progress

he may run THE best routes in the whole draft

he is also pretty fast and has great size great hands and body control

he is pro ready who only dropped because of a pectoral injury at the end of 2010 which affected him in 2011 season


seriously this guy has amazing routes he uses fakes and everything
Originally posted by Joecool:
There are three positions I would not mind taking at 30 and that's TE, WR, or CB. These are positions, that if we get the right guy, will force Defenses to change from their comfort zones.

DON'T need a Guard (interior lineman) at this pick. Not worth it. Look at the success we have had selecting Guards in later rounds: Smiley, Snyder, possibly Kilgore, and all those other ones 6-8 years ago that went onto start on other teams after we didn't sign them.

Playing devil's advocate, selecting a guard/center in the first round has been amongst the positions with the least busts over the last decade. I did an analysis on this about a year ago. Generally, you are going to hit with your first round guard/center.
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
My picks based on your board:

1 - Janoris Jenkins, worth the risk
2 - Brandon Brooks, need an interior lineman
3 - Kirk Cousins, value pick here. I'm confident he will be at least a solid starter in the NFL with his arm and release, he just needs to develop. I'm a fan of Matthews so he is hard to pass up as I had him as my "sleeper" way early on this year, him against Boise State the previous year was eye opening. He made Kaep look like a stud
4 - Greg Childs, great size and great speed. IMO a development project though
5 - Kelcie McCray, I think he will be one of the best safeties out of a weak class
6 - Michael Brewster, I want a young center to develop to take over
7 - Markus Kuhn, 3-4 DE to develop
You must not be very high on CK, and that is OK, since I am not either. That being said, I doubt the Niners select a QB this year with four already under contract. I think the Niners want to see how Alex Smith performs, the development or non-development of CK, and whether lightning can strike twice between Harbaugh and Josh Johnson. Tolzien probably gets a year on the practice squad.
Originally posted by blm7754:
This is what I would do... based on that:

1st: Rueben Randle WR
2nd: Lamar Miller RB (trade up a few spots if needed)
3rd: Tyrone Crawford DE
4th: Tony Bergstrom OG
5th: Ron Brooks CB
6th: De'Quan Menzie S
7th: Chris Owusu WR

My thoughts on your draft:

Randle might be a possibility, although I think they would like a receiver that blocks a bit better if they are burning a first rounder.
Miller may be available at 61, but I don't grade him as high as many others. To me, he is the 6th best RB on my board, a change of pace back, but not a three down player. Crawford is not a match for our scheme. He will be a classic 43 DE. Bergstrom is an interesting player. I like his overall college play, versatility, and performance during Senior Bowl week. Brooks is a mystery, since he was stuck behind All-American corners during his career. When he did get an opportunity, he looked sold. Menzie is a tweener to me, and I think he has to move to safety. Good college player. I know Mayock loves the kid. Owusu could be undrafted. Speed for sure, but medicals could take him off a lot of board with the concussion history. Maybe worth a flier in the 7th.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Joecool:
There are three positions I would not mind taking at 30 and that's TE, WR, or CB. These are positions, that if we get the right guy, will force Defenses to change from their comfort zones.

DON'T need a Guard (interior lineman) at this pick. Not worth it. Look at the success we have had selecting Guards in later rounds: Smiley, Snyder, possibly Kilgore, and all those other ones 6-8 years ago that went onto start on other teams after we didn't sign them.

Playing devil's advocate, selecting a guard/center in the first round has been amongst the positions with the least busts over the last decade. I did an analysis on this about a year ago. Generally, you are going to hit with your first round guard/center.

But is that because it is an easier position to fill? I would like to see the number of successful C/G that were selected outside the 1st round. Yes, round 1 at that position is near guarantee but I think that has more to do with the ease of filling the position...sort of like getting a FB in the 1st round.

I would rather go with a position that impacts the opponent IF that player appears to be a sure thing.
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
greg childs isnt a development progress

he may run THE best routes in the whole draft

he is also pretty fast and has great size great hands and body control

he is pro ready who only dropped because of a pectoral injury at the end of 2010 which affected him in 2011 season


seriously this guy has amazing routes he uses fakes and everything

It takes more then route running to be NFL ready. I think he needs more time in the weight room to put on additional muscle, I think rigiht now he will struggle against physical corners and he needs work on his hands as he tends to body catch.


Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You must not be very high on CK, and that is OK, since I am not either. That being said, I doubt the Niners select a QB this year with four already under contract. I think the Niners want to see how Alex Smith performs, the development or non-development of CK, and whether lightning can strike twice between Harbaugh and Josh Johnson. Tolzien probably gets a year on the practice squad.

I'm not high on CK at all, I watched a couple of Nevada games (for fun, not even thinking of the draft), and he wasn't reading defenses at all, showed poor ball placement, and poor footwork (partially because he is a great scrambler, but he has to learn to set his feet and throw instead of scrambling so early). If CK becomes an NFL starter, it will be after a lot of development, but coming out of college he did not show he could hack it in the NFL. The gulf between Dalton (who I was extremely high on) and CK was huge.

However, if I was a GM and I saw Kirk Cousins sitting in the 3rd I'd take him. The only scenario where I wouldn't take him is if I wsa completely sold on my #1/#2 QB (which we shouldn't be) and there was a player you REALLY wanted still on the board.

Cousins has a 1st round worthy arm, accuracy and release IMO. Mentally Cousins isn't there (he is prone to a couple of really dumb passes per game) and a lot of his ducks he threw were the result of a breakdown in his footwork/balance which is normally good. So Cousins needs to develop more consistentcy on his mechanics, and needs to be coached up to not do his Favre-esque dumb throws.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Playing devil's advocate, selecting a guard/center in the first round has been amongst the positions with the least busts over the last decade. I did an analysis on this about a year ago. Generally, you are going to hit with your first round guard/center.

True... a guard/center in the 1st round is a low risk investment. But as with any low risk investment, it has a low rate of return. In other words, an interior OL is not going to be a difference maker. It'd be a safe pick, but probably not going to be a real boost to our offense.

Our roster is at the point where we should look for the high risk / high return types of picks in the 1st round. We don't have any huge needs. We have pretty much the same roster that made it to the NFC championship. We can afford to be a little risky with the 30th pick. Lets try to find a difference maker!
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Playing devil's advocate, selecting a guard/center in the first round has been amongst the positions with the least busts over the last decade. I did an analysis on this about a year ago. Generally, you are going to hit with your first round guard/center.

True... a guard/center in the 1st round is a low risk investment. But as with any low risk investment, it has a low rate of return. In other words, an interior OL is not going to be a difference maker. It'd be a safe pick, but probably not going to be a real boost to our offense.

Our roster is at the point where we should look for the high risk / high return types of picks in the 1st round. We don't have any huge needs. We have pretty much the same roster that made it to the NFC championship. We can afford to be a little risky with the 30th pick. Lets try to find a difference maker!

It could be a boost to our offense, but it will not force an opponents game plan as will a player like Fleener, Hill or a top CB.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
My picks based on your board:

1 - Janoris Jenkins, worth the risk
2 - Brandon Brooks, need an interior lineman
3 - Kirk Cousins, value pick here. I'm confident he will be at least a solid starter in the NFL with his arm and release, he just needs to develop. I'm a fan of Matthews so he is hard to pass up as I had him as my "sleeper" way early on this year, him against Boise State the previous year was eye opening. He made Kaep look like a stud
4 - Greg Childs, great size and great speed. IMO a development project though
5 - Kelcie McCray, I think he will be one of the best safeties out of a weak class
6 - Michael Brewster, I want a young center to develop to take over
7 - Markus Kuhn, 3-4 DE to develop
You must not be very high on CK, and that is OK, since I am not either. That being said, I doubt the Niners select a QB this year with four already under contract. I think the Niners want to see how Alex Smith performs, the development or non-development of CK, and whether lightning can strike twice between Harbaugh and Josh Johnson. Tolzien probably gets a year on the practice squad.

Can you explain why you're so down on CK? I never understood. He was not expected to play as a rookie. So far he has met expectations. I remember you liking him leading up to the draft last year
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
My picks based on your board:

1 - Janoris Jenkins, worth the risk
2 - Brandon Brooks, need an interior lineman
3 - Kirk Cousins, value pick here. I'm confident he will be at least a solid starter in the NFL with his arm and release, he just needs to develop. I'm a fan of Matthews so he is hard to pass up as I had him as my "sleeper" way early on this year, him against Boise State the previous year was eye opening. He made Kaep look like a stud
4 - Greg Childs, great size and great speed. IMO a development project though
5 - Kelcie McCray, I think he will be one of the best safeties out of a weak class
6 - Michael Brewster, I want a young center to develop to take over
7 - Markus Kuhn, 3-4 DE to develop
You must not be very high on CK, and that is OK, since I am not either. That being said, I doubt the Niners select a QB this year with four already under contract. I think the Niners want to see how Alex Smith performs, the development or non-development of CK, and whether lightning can strike twice between Harbaugh and Josh Johnson. Tolzien probably gets a year on the practice squad.

Can you explain why you're so down on CK? I never understood. He was not expected to play as a rookie. So far he has met expectations. I remember you liking him leading up to the draft last year

I know...it's not like we drafted him #1 like Alex.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by blm7754:
This is what I would do... based on that:

1st: Rueben Randle WR
2nd: Lamar Miller RB (trade up a few spots if needed)
3rd: Tyrone Crawford DE
4th: Tony Bergstrom OG
5th: Ron Brooks CB
6th: De'Quan Menzie S
7th: Chris Owusu WR

My thoughts on your draft:

Randle might be a possibility, although I think they would like a receiver that blocks a bit better if they are burning a first rounder.
Miller may be available at 61, but I don't grade him as high as many others. To me, he is the 6th best RB on my board, a change of pace back, but not a three down player. Crawford is not a match for our scheme. He will be a classic 43 DE. Bergstrom is an interesting player. I like his overall college play, versatility, and performance during Senior Bowl week. Brooks is a mystery, since he was stuck behind All-American corners during his career. When he did get an opportunity, he looked sold. Menzie is a tweener to me, and I think he has to move to safety. Good college player. I know Mayock loves the kid. Owusu could be undrafted. Speed for sure, but medicals could take him off a lot of board with the concussion history. Maybe worth a flier in the 7th.

You may be right about Miller... perhaps we will have to wait till next year to find Gore's replacement.

As for Crawford, I disagree. He is pretty raw and isn't ready to start yet at any position. But pack 20 lbs on his frame and let him develop behind J. Smith and he could be the perfect replacement for Smith a couple years down the road.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
My picks based on your board:

1 - Janoris Jenkins, worth the risk
2 - Brandon Brooks, need an interior lineman
3 - Kirk Cousins, value pick here. I'm confident he will be at least a solid starter in the NFL with his arm and release, he just needs to develop. I'm a fan of Matthews so he is hard to pass up as I had him as my "sleeper" way early on this year, him against Boise State the previous year was eye opening. He made Kaep look like a stud
4 - Greg Childs, great size and great speed. IMO a development project though
5 - Kelcie McCray, I think he will be one of the best safeties out of a weak class
6 - Michael Brewster, I want a young center to develop to take over
7 - Markus Kuhn, 3-4 DE to develop
You must not be very high on CK, and that is OK, since I am not either. That being said, I doubt the Niners select a QB this year with four already under contract. I think the Niners want to see how Alex Smith performs, the development or non-development of CK, and whether lightning can strike twice between Harbaugh and Josh Johnson. Tolzien probably gets a year on the practice squad.

Drafting a QB this year would be a waste of a pick in my opinion unless the team figures that 1 year is all it took to figure out that CK and Tolzien are worthless, which I don't think is the case.
MD how do you feel about kirpatrick? Any corner who has a 7.2 3 cone I think will have trouble sticking anybody in this league. If you have a 7.2 cone drill time you better run a 4.3. And with a time of 4.5 in the 40 I think he will struggle to stay in the NFL after a few years.
I had CK graded as the 5th best QB in the draft after Gabbert, Dalton, Newton, Locker. Elongated release, lack of consistent accuracy, rough Senior Bowl week, spread offense, lot of variables to overcome.To me, he was late 3rd round value.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:54 PM ]
Hill looked good at the combine, but would Baalke go and get him? I'm not sure. Does he have enough production in college and his lack of route running would seem to be against their philosophy in the first round. Also there are a few guys who can be had later with similar eye popping numbers like Streeter.

Fleener to me is the best fit for the Niners for what they like to do with TE's, being familiar in the offense. He's a guy who is like a WR but you can't guard the guy with Vernon and other weapons.

But if Fleener isn't there, they may go line. If you are getting the second best guard in the draft at the 30 spot that's nice. Zeitler or Silatolu would be good picks for the team. They are both NASTY PHYSICAL players.

If there is anyway to trade back in the second about 5 picks, and trade up in the 2nd to the 40's that would be ideal for this draft. So many great players in the 2nd cut (33-55).

CANT WAIT FOR THE DRAFT!!!!!