Worst-case scenario first round for 49ers
While mocking out the first round, I found that there's a good chance for trent richardson to drop in the draft...and I expect somebody to trade up for him. However, I also found that there's a risk the 49ers don't get one of the second-tier players they're hoping for at #30. That list includes:
TE Coby Dleener
C Peter Konz
OG Cordy Glenn
WR Stephen Hill
WR Kendall Wright
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Janoris Jenkins
In this scenario, all of those guys are gone, so we're stuck going with the best player available unless somebody wants to trade up. I put Stephon Gilmore in this slot, mainly because everyone else we'd consider at #30 (Zeitler, Randle, RB Wilson, RB Martin) are huge reaches.
Our best hope in this scenario is that somebody *really* wants Whitney Mercilus. One possibility is Miami sending us a third rounder to move up from #42...we'd have to send them a 4th to even it up. So we'd then have picks at #42, #61, #74, #92, #165, #199, and #237. With those picks, we'd make the hypothetical selections:
#42 - Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
#61 - Alameda Ta'amu, NT, Washington
#74 - Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami
#92 - Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
#165- David Molk, C, Michigan
#199- Coryell Judie, CB, Texas A&M
#237- Trenton Robinson, FS, Michigan State
1. Indianapolis (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - No explanation needed.
2. Washington - from St. Louis (2-14) - Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor - No explanation needed.
3. Minnesota (3-13) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC - No explanation needed
4. Cleveland (4-12) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - I think they're going to trade down, but if forced to stay at this spot I think they take Blackmon to spicen up the Browns passing game and maky McCoy look as good as they can...or Make Matt Barkley look really good in 2013.
5. Tampa Bay (4-12) - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - An excellent CB to be paired with Eric Wright
6. St. Louis - from Washington (5-11) - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - Don't be shocked. This is quietly becoming the pick in mocks that have Claiborne and Blackmon already gone at #6. Jeff Fisher wants a big defensive tackle to make their D-Line dominant, and they also feel that they can grad a starting-caliber OT and WR at the beginning of the second round.
7. Jacksonville (5-11) Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - Gotta keep Henne and Gabbert upright. Already signed a WR in FA.
8. Miami (6-10) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Reuinited with Sherman.
9. Carolina (6-10) Michael Brockers, DE/TD, LSU - Rivera gets a beast to clog up the middle and dominate...if he can get the effort out of him.
10. Buffalo (6-10) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - They were at his pro day, he's a very good left tackle prospect, and is definetely worth the pick at #10
11. Kansas City (7-9) - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College - This is the pick Todd McShay and the guy over at the Sporting News have right now in their mocks. Paired with Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs will rivalthe 49ers for the best ILB combo in the NFL.
12. Seattle (7-9) - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Best player available; golden tate might get cut and is a borderline bust. Flynn will have plenty of weapons now...watch out!
13. Arizona (8-8) - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina - Arizona gets a new pass-rusher.
14. Dallas (8-8) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Somebody is going to trade up for him if he slides past #6, but if there are no trades his firewall is Dallas at #14. Richardson and DeMarco Murray will terrorize opposing Front Sevens for a decade.
15. Philadelphia (8-8) - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - beast in the middle.
16. New York Jets (8-8) - Stephen Hill, WR, Ga Tech - Big play potential WR lands in New York
17. Cincinnati - from Oakland (8-8) - David DeCastro, G, Stanford - Right where an elite guard should be draft -- in the mid-teens.
18. San Diego (8-8) - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama - Upgrade at pass-rush.
19. Chicago (8-8) - Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - Although they traded for Marshall, they still need help at WR, esp. with the uncertain future of Johnny Knox
20. Tennessee (9-7) - Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin - Eugene Amano is the worst Center in the NFL. Huge upgrade
21. Cincinnati* (9-7) - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - big need for Cincy, Leon Hall is still out for a while
22. Cleveland - from Atlanta* (10-6) - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford - nooo! Cleveland gets a second weapon for McCoy. Cleveland had the lowest TE Production in the NFL
23. Detroit* (10-6) - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - Replaces Wright
24. Pittsburgh* (12-4) - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State - need upgrade at right tackle. Public interest in Adams from Steelers.
25. Denver* (8-8) - Devon Still, DT, Penn State - big body up front. Interior DL is much weaker than the edge rushers
26. Houston* (10-6) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - Replacement for Mario Williams...nobody expected him to fall this far
27. New England - from New Orleans* (13-3) - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama - best player available that fits a competitive position.
28. Green Bay* (15-1) - Mark Barron, SS, Alabama - don't know if Nick Collins is going to be OK - little depth at S
29. Baltimore* (12-4) - Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia - Replaces Grubbs as a rookie, can move to tackle long-term
30. San Francisco* (13-3) - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - Not exactly what we were hoping for, but Gilmore is the BPA and can rotate into the secondary immediately. His size makes him a tempting free safety prospect in the long-run and he could provide depth there as a rookie. Other options are this pick are David Wilson, RB, VA Tech, or a guard such as Kevin Zeitler (WI) -- both are a reach at #30.
31. New England* (13-3) - Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois - Pass-rusher with raw skills that NE can rotate in.
32. New York Giants* (9-7) - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech - nice addition