Fleener vs Hill

buck · 2012-03-22T11:46:36-07:00

I acknowledge that making comparisons between two players who play different positions and played in different schemes is fraught with problems. Nevertheless, I do think it safe to assume that if Fleener and Hill had played on the other's team, Hill's number would go up and Fleener's would go down. Last year, Stanford ran 935 offensive plays (44.6 % were passing plays.) Last year, Georgia Tech ran 928 offense plays (23.8 % were passing plays.) Not only were the schemes fundamentally different, but the quality of quarterbacks was also quite different. Luck completed 71.2% of his passes, while the Georgia Tech quarterbacks only completed 49.1% of their passes. Here are some comparisons to consider. Stephen Hill is 6-4 and weighs 215 pounds. Coby Fleener is 6-6 and weighs 247 pounds. Hill ran 4.36 in the forty. Fleener's estimated time in the 40 is 4.77. edit: per Valrod33 post below Fleener ran a 4.45 forty. edit: Mayock had him run a 4.51 with a 20 mph wind. Stephen Hill ranked 79 nationally in receiving yards. Coby Fleener ranked 134 nationally in receiving yards. Stephen Hill had 28 receptions for 820 yards and 5 scores. Coby Fleener had 34 receptions for 667 yards and 10 scores. Hill averaged 29.3 yards per reception. Fleener averaged 19.6 yards per reception. Stephen Hill had 34.2% of Georgia Tech's receptions. Coby Fleener had 11.5% of Stanford's receptions. Hill had 44.3% of the teams receiving yardage. Fleener had 18.4% of the teams receiving yardage. Hill had 45.6% of the teams receiving scores. Fleener had 26.3% of the teams receiving scores. My sense is that both players would fit into SF's scheme, but I favor Hill. If the team selects Fleener, I will not complain. Well, maybe just a little. I hope that Moss works out well this year, but I do not think that we can depend on him, and certainly not for long. Fleener might be more pro-ready than Hill right now, but drafting only for upcoming year seems a bit short-sighted. I predict that by the start of the season, Hill will be above Williams on our depth chart. By the end of the year, Hill will have proven to be a solid contributor. In the near future, our wide receivers will be Hill, Manningham, and Crabtree.

Mar 22, 2012 at 11:50 AM

valrod33
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Todd McShay ‏ @McShay13
TE coby Fleener just ran 4.45 40

Mar 22, 2012 at 11:51 AM

buck
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Originally posted by valrod33:
Todd McShay ‏ @McShay13
TE coby Fleener just ran 4.45 40

That is a great time and raises his draft status.

I do not dislike Fleener.

Mar 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

pete98146
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If that is the case, I don't think Fleener will be there at #30 and there is a good chance Hill will be gone as well. It stinks because our other good prospect Cordy Glenn will also be off the board.

I'll predict we'll trade back 10 spots and nab Kevin Zeitler - G from Wisconsin. Is it a sexy pick? Nope, but atleast we'll be able to stock pile talent.

The wildcard pick may be Lamar Miller RB.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Gore_21
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Originally posted by pete98146:
If that is the case, I don't think Fleener will be there at #30 and there is a good chance Hill will be gone as well. It stinks because our other good prospect Cordy Glenn will also be off the board.

I'll predict we'll trade back 10 spots and nab Kevin Zeitler - G from Wisconsin. Is it a sexy pick? Nope, but atleast we'll be able to stock pile talent.

The wildcard pick may be Lamar Miller RB.

Yeah, I'm worried Wright, Glenn, Konz, Hill, Fleener will all be off the board. If that happens I agree trade back a bit and maybe go for Zeitler or Osemele. Pick up an extra 3rd or 4th. Other than Zeitler/Osemele, maybe best WR available... I don't really like Jeffery but he might be worth the risk in the late 30s/40s (depending on how far we trade down)

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:06 PM

susweel
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Trade up for Floyd

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

49oz2superbowl
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Where in the world did you get the 4.77 time? It has been widely known that Fleener runs in the low to sub 4.5 range for quite some time. He ran it in his pre-college workouts and had been timed in that range in Stanford workouts. To say he ran a 4.77 is admitting your bias against the pick. All Hill has going for him is his athleticism, if you're going to downplay Fleener's than the comparison is moot.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:10 PM

DRUSTOPO
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Originally posted by pete98146:
If that is the case, I don't think Fleener will be there at #30 and there is a good chance Hill will be gone as well. It stinks because our other good prospect Cordy Glenn will also be off the board.

I'll predict we'll trade back 10 spots and nab Kevin Zeitler - G from Wisconsin. Is it a sexy pick? Nope, but atleast we'll be able to stock pile talent.

The wildcard pick may be Lamar Miller RB.

Just saw Fleener run his 4.45 at Stanford Pro Day ( ESPN 3 ). Man that big boy can MOVE! 4.45 puts him as the fastest TE in the draft. With the way Gronk and Graham blew up, I dont think there's a chance in hell he makes it to 30. I could see the G-men jumping us if he's there in the late 20's.

If that's the case, I LOVE your idea of trading back for Zeitler, Im a HUGE fan. Saw him a ton since Im a Penn State fan, he dominated Still on the inside. He is the perfect RG for our offense, can pull, pass block and drive block as well as anyone in the nation. In my mind he is 2nd only to DeCastro and ahead of Glenn. If we do that, we can then groom Kilgore for the G/C swing role. If we can get another 3rd or 4th rounder out of this deal to move down I say take it. There's another GREAT pass catching TE in this draft, Michael Egnew. He has EXCELLENT hands and will be there in the 3rd/4th. I saw him play a ton in college too, he was unstoppable with Blane Gabbert in 2010. They had no deep threat on offense that year. It was all Egnew and TJ Moe ( Wes Welker clone ).

I like the plan A of Fleener with a possible plan B of Zeitler + Egnew for the same pick.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

buck
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Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:
Where in the world did you get the 4.77 time? It has been widely known that Fleener runs in the low to sub 4.5 range for quite some time. He ran it in his pre-college workouts and had been timed in that range in Stanford workouts. To say he ran a 4.77 is admitting your bias against the pick. All Hill has going for him is his athleticism, if you're going to downplay Fleener's than the comparison is moot.

I did say estimated time. I got that number from

CBS
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2012/TE

NFLDraftScout
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/players.php?genpos=TE&draftyear=2012&sortorder=tsxpos&order=ASC

Thanks

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:17 PM

pete98146
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Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:
Where in the world did you get the 4.77 time? It has been widely known that Fleener runs in the low to sub 4.5 range for quite some time. He ran it in his pre-college workouts and had been timed in that range in Stanford workouts. To say he ran a 4.77 is admitting your bias against the pick. All Hill has going for him is his athleticism, if you're going to downplay Fleener's than the comparison is moot.

The NFL is a copy cat league. Teams see the success the Pats have had with Gronz/Hernandez and the Saints with Graham. No way he'll last till #30. But, if Baalk/baugh like him enough, trading up 5 slots to get Fleener wouldn't be THAT expensive.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

#10

jreff22
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Posts: 67,311

Originally posted by pete98146:

Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:
Where in the world did you get the 4.77 time? It has been widely known that Fleener runs in the low to sub 4.5 range for quite some time. He ran it in his pre-college workouts and had been timed in that range in Stanford workouts. To say he ran a 4.77 is admitting your bias against the pick. All Hill has going for him is his athleticism, if you're going to downplay Fleener's than the comparison is moot.

The NFL is a copy cat league. Teams see the success the Pats have had with Gronz/Hernandez and the Saints with Graham. No way he'll last till #30. But, if Baalk/baugh like him enough, trading up 5 slots to get Fleener wouldn't be THAT expensive.

thats only 1 team that uses 2 TE in that fashon...the Saints with Graham are not any different then us.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:42 PM

#11

pete98146
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Posts: 2,619

Originally posted by jreff22:
thats only 1 team that uses 2 TE in that fashon...the Saints with Graham are not any different then us.

Like I said..you wait a few years and see how that changes.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:44 PM

#12

jreff22
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Originally posted by pete98146:

Originally posted by jreff22:
thats only 1 team that uses 2 TE in that fashon...the Saints with Graham are not any different then us.

Like I said..you wait a few years and see how that changes.

like the wild cat?

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:46 PM

#13

Sjceruti
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Neither are 1st rounders IMO but if I had to pick one at 30 it'd be Fleener.

Mar 22, 2012 at 12:46 PM

#14

Cjez
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Fleener just busted his ankle.