Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:Good response. I disagree mostly, but good response.
1.) I don't know enough about Kilgore to say one way or another...if you know something about him that we don't please share, otherwise you're just guessing. Which is fine, but not exactly pursuasive.
2.) BPA isn't a luxury, it's a strategy that teams like the Ravens have employed very successfully over the years. Now, it doesn't mean you totally ignore your needs...it just means you choose the best football player on your board even though you might have more pressing needs somewhere else. Teams have really struck out when they reach for guys that aren't the best football players available, but that fill a current need. As a rule of thumb (and yes, there are always exceptions), you're better off grabbing the best football player on the board as opposed to getting a lesser football player that scratches the most immediate itch.
3.) In the case of Aldon Smith, it was clearly a matter of need-meets-BPA (according to the Niners). What commentators or analysts say about prospects is irrelevant; it's all about what your team board looks like, and clearly Aldon was a guy that was high on OUR board, and that's all that matters. He was a guy that both filled a need and was the best player available by the team's standards; we know this because they selected him over other players that were deemed better prospects by the so-called experts. He was the best available player on the Niner board, and he filled a need...that's a win-win.
And all that said, the draft is a crap shoot so even if you THINK you're getting the BPA or reaching to fill a need, you really never know if it's going to work out no matter how well thought out the process or strong the argument for taking one guy over another. You just never know.
Btw, choosing a BPA doesn't mean you're not getting a year-1 or year-2 starter...it's not a mutually exclusive thing.
1. You are correct, I am guessing when it comes to Kilgore. No one really knows what this kid can do but the coaching staff. But it was clear that JH was grooming this kid to start at some point (along with Beeler). So, giving JH's developmental abilities the benefit of the doubt I have to expect - guess - that this is the year Kilgore or Person (or both) gets a chance to showcase that development. In my opinion, to draft G in the 1st - not that I'm against it - would indicate that Kilgore and Person aren't ready. We will see come draft day. But I think Kilgore (and perhaps Beeler) may surprise some people this year.
2. Here's were I have a fundamental difference with you (and most here in The Zone) when it comes to this "BPA" thing. My personal belief is that fans here in The Zone (not all) are over emphasizing the "BPA" and "reaching" in order to justify drafting an unneeded TE in the 1st. If I didn't know better I'd say the 49ers had no TE's at all. So, what is your definition of "reaching"? Hill is in the Calvin Johnson mold with very similar measurables. Was he a "reach" when Detroit picked him 2nd overall? Hill's game, like Johnson's coming out of the same school and running a similar offense, translates beautifully with the NFL. So I don't think Hill is a "reach" for any team in the 1st round. None of us are in the war rooms of NFL team so none of really know if a player was BPA or a player of need high on their board, that is unless they let it be known. Outside of that, we're all taking educated guesses (unless we have some relationship with someone on the coaching staff). And based on what I've observed of previous drafts (been watching them for 20+ years now) almost always, unless it's a QB, teams use that first rounder for a guy who they feel can come in and start right away or by year two. Just because a team picks for need in the first don't mean they are reaching. A team can - and often do - trade out of the 1st if they feel the talent available is a "reach" (whatever you think it means) or otherwise not worth of drafting there.
3. You kind of make my point about NFL team's war room and their big board. No one knew that Aldon was rated that high on the 49ers board until they drafted him. But like you said, you really don't know until you get these players on an NFL field with NFL talent. And, with all their evaluation, tests, and interviews, not even the coaches can get around that. (I can attest to that in my own job.) Which is why "BPA" in the 1st isn't wise for this team. We ave at least two positions we can fill in the 1st, and neither would be a "reach" to fill it.