AB's Detailed 2012 Mock Off-Season

WOW AB really great read as always...you are the man with numbers.

Now if only you knew QBs.....cough cough CAM cough cough....

Originally posted by SteveYoung:
One more dumb question:

You have guys getting say 10 mil guaranteed with 5 of it as a signing bonus and the remainder as roster bonuses but how are roster bonuses guaranteed? We can cut them before they get the bonus so then it is not guaranteed.

Does this make sense?

Should of clarified every contract states certain money guaranteed, but yes, the Roster Bonuses arent guaranteed unless on team, so you are correct.

AB- You are the zone capologist for sure. I learned alot from your post. I like option 2 in the draft by a nose. The Minnifield/Hill combo at CB/WR did it for me. I dont think Reyes will be there at the end of the 3rd. Ballard is soeone I had in my mcok in the 6th and like that you had him in both yours. I really think if someone drafts Tannehill early in the first its a big risk. I also project the 49ers trading back to someone jumping back in the late first for Tannehill.

I'd be stoked if we could sign our own FA at those numbers

Originally posted by davidboutte:
AB- You are the zone capologist for sure. I learned alot from your post. I like option 2 in the draft by a nose. The Minnifield/Hill combo at CB/WR did it for me. I dont think Reyes will be there at the end of the 3rd. Ballard is soeone I had in my mcok in the 6th and like that you had him in both yours. I really think if someone drafts Tannehill early in the first its a big risk. I also project the 49ers trading back to someone jumping back in the late first for Tannehill.

I'd be stoked if we could sign our own FA at those numbers

Thanks man, appreciate the kind words. If we could get Minnifield/Hill combo, I would be supper happy. I also like Ballard. I'm holding out hope for a 6th or 7th rd comp pick, since braylon didnt end up on roster after season ended.

Great breakdown on the money side of things. Very optimistic pricing on free agents though. Only thing i really don't like is giving Rogers and signing Laurent Robinson. I would take the Robinson money and the money saved form not re signing Morgan and go get a real number 1 wr if possible.

Originally posted by ninergold:
2M seems like a lot to drop on Spilman

That would be my question for AB. Couldn't we get away with a 3rd round tender for Spillman and pay him less? Grant might get that money but don't think anyone would give up a 2nd for him? Wouldn't it be cheaper(although might not have the time/it's too chaotic right now) to sign those guys to 4 year deals like Boone for say 5-6 million than pay them 2 million this year? (Grant might not take that but Spillman probably would).

I love the detail in your posts. This is very interesting when you see the numbers. My only constructive comment or criticism is the Niners only carried 3 OLB's last year, which I view as high risk. They only have two under contract, and hopefully will sign brooks. I simply do not see Haralsons contract as that bad, he sets the edge and keeps outside contain forcing the play back to our stud ILB core.

Simply put I think Haralson stays.

I also like that the Niners do not sign lots of FA's and lose some of their own (reality). This will help with obtaining compensatory picks in 2013.

My last question or comment is I am in favor of signing Goldson to a long term deal since he is younger, then franchising Rogers.

Send this thread to 4949, well done

I'd do some different things in the draft, but love how you got our free agents back,
I'd also try and frree up a bit more $$$ for the free agent WR we bring in

As noted above, we are too thin at OLB to lose Haralson, he also has plenty experience
playing both sides, gotta keep him

btw, Gooden can play OLB too, I think that is one of the reasons Niners had just 3 in 2011

AB - your work is excellent, as always. My question is regarding Alex Smith. I heard on The Game that Smith's agent is going to shoot for the same type of contract the Bills just gave to Fitzpatrick, which I believe was in the 50 million range (not sure how much guaranteed). Obviously Smith has a lot of incentive to sign with SF (he will not get that type of money from any other team) but your figure for him seems low to me given that Harbaugh has basically de-leveraged the organization by saying to anyone willing to listen that Smith is the guy.

Also, what are the chances that the team cuts other players besides Spencer and, maybe, Haralson to give them significant, additional cap space? Are there players on this team that fit that category (I obviously don't count our starts like Willis, Davis, etc.)

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by ninergold:
2M seems like a lot to drop on Spilman

That would be my question for AB. Couldn't we get away with a 3rd round tender for Spillman and pay him less? Grant might get that money but don't think anyone would give up a 2nd for him? Wouldn't it be cheaper(although might not have the time/it's too chaotic right now) to sign those guys to 4 year deals like Boone for say 5-6 million than pay them 2 million this year? (Grant might not take that but Spillman probably would).

Unfortunately there is no 3rd round tender, just 3 different tenders, 1st round, 2nd round and original(Grant would be a 7th and Spillman None as he was a UDFA).

I would also sign them outright, I dont know if Grant will take 2M a year, he may want more. Spillman I think would be willing to take 1M-1.5M average.

Originally posted by midrdan:
AB - your work is excellent, as always. My question is regarding Alex Smith. I heard on The Game that Smith's agent is going to shoot for the same type of contract the Bills just gave to Fitzpatrick, which I believe was in the 50 million range (not sure how much guaranteed). Obviously Smith has a lot of incentive to sign with SF (he will not get that type of money from any other team) but your figure for him seems low to me given that Harbaugh has basically de-leveraged the organization by saying to anyone willing to listen that Smith is the guy.

Also, what are the chances that the team cuts other players besides Spencer and, maybe, Haralson to give them significant, additional cap space? Are there players on this team that fit that category (I obviously don't count our starts like Willis, Davis, etc.)

I hope Alex isnt demanding Fitzpatrick Money, which was I believe 59M, full of incentives and roster bonuses. Im fine with 8M a yr, over 3 or 4 years. I dont want to invest a ton of money and then he busts and we're screwed with cap hit.

As for releases, I think Spencer is the only logical one, Haralson only if Brooks leaves. I dont see anyone else. I can see a few extensions, maybe Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati and Delanie Walker come to mind. But the big one would be Sopoaga, he has like a 3.8M base salary that can easily cut down to 1M, or the vet minimum which might be 925K.

Also, Iupati and Davis earned there one timers back in 2010, so they aren't on the books this season, if they had been it would of been like 5M combined.

Bravo!!! great Mock Off-Season..