Here is my try in on the free agency and draft.
I think the niners should re-sign the following players :
Alex Smith, 2 years, around 15 millions
I don't think Alex will get a long term contract here, because what we got this year from him is the ceiling and Kaepernick has the potential to be much more. Colin isn't ready yet, so i contract in the 2 year range is exactly what the niners should be looking for. Alex could get a longer contract anywhere else, but will stay because he loves Harbaugh, he loves haing the same OC for the first time and he isn't the kind of guy that is only looking for the big contract.
Dashon Goldson, franchise tag for around 7 million per year.
Goldson will get a big contract anywhere else if the niners let him reach the free agency. He will be looking for a contract in the 5 year, 40-45 million range and this is simply too much. We don't have another safety on the roster who could take over and bringing in another guy is expensive, too. So franchise him and pick up a safety in the later rounds of the draft and pair him with a free agent veteran.
Adam Synder, 3 years, 7.5 millions
With Snyder in the lineup, the oline was solid. He is a good player who can be a swing backup at least.
Josh Morgan, 2 years, 6 millions
I don't think Josh will make a big splash in free agency coming of his injury. He makes quite a jump money wise (625.000 in 2011 to 3.000.000 in 2012). The contract is only for 2 years, because he must show, that he is the same after the injury.
Blake Costanzo, CJ Spillmann , 1 year 1.5 millions and 1 millions
Keep the special teams core together. Both get a 100% rise to keep them in.
Ted Ginn : We will pick up a speedy wr and returner in the draft. Ginn does not bring very much to the offense so he is replaceable.
Ahmad Brooks : I would love to keep him, but he will be getting a huge contract. He played a great season, he is an every down player, he can rush the qb. He will be too expensive to keep him. Aldon Smith will be the starter on his position next season.
Tavares Gooden and Larry Grant : Larry played too good when Willis was hurt, so he will be the starter anywhere else next year. Gooden will be replaced by a rookie who will be the backup to Willis and Bowmann, too.
Moran Norris, Chilo Rachal, Shawntae Spencer and Reggie Smith : They all will try a new start anyhwere else.
This would be a cap hit of around 24 million dollars, it will take around 6 millions to sign the new rookies (2011 numbers) what leaves around 13.5 millions to spend.
This leads to the decision, to resign Carlos Rogers or to let him go. I think he will be looking for a contract in the 9 million per year for 4-5 years range. If he gives the niners a discount, they could maybe sign him to a 3 years 25 million dollar deal. If the niners sign him to such a contract, there won't be much money for a wr, you can only get a 2nd tier guy in that case.
So here is scenario 1 , the niners resign Carlos Rodgers to a 3 year 25 million deal with 7 millions in 2012 and 9 millions in 2013 and 2014 :
In free agency:
Robert Meachem, WR , 3 year, 10 million dollar deal. Meachem gets around 1 million per year now(2011) and is a player, who fits the niners need for a speedy guy.
Mike Pollack, G/C, 2 years, 3 millions. A veteran backup for the interior line.Started at both positions.
Reggie Nelson, FS, 1 year, 2 millions. Backup safety
1st round : Nick Perry, OLB, USC .
In the absence of Ahmad Brooks, Perry could play the same role, that Aldon Smith did this year. He or Whitney Mercilus, who will not be available in my opinion should for a great tandem with Aldon Smith for years.
2nd round : Kendal Reyes, DE, UConn
We all know that Justin Smith is not getting younger. This is a pick for the futures, but Reyes is a guy, who plays with a lot of intensity and power. He is just fun to watch-
3rd round : Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
Broyles was a 2nd round pick before tearing his acl, but he should be ok for the next season. He is a great returner, too.
4th round : Audie Cole, MLB, North Carolina State
We need a new backup in the middle. Cole is a in the box. He has played outside, so he can be a backup there, too.
5th round : Cordarro Law, OLB, Southern Miss
Another pass rusher to complete the lb-corps. A sleeper who looks like a perfect fit for the 3-4 defense.
6th and 7th round : A safety and a cb with special teams value.
So this would be the new depth chart :
QB- Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick. Scott Tolzien
WR- Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Robert Meachem, Ryan Broyles, Kyle Williams
TE- Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Nate Byham
RB- Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Anthony Dixon
FB- Bruce Miller
LT: Joe Staley, Alex Boone (swing tackle)
LG- Mike Iupati, Mike Person
C- Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Pollack
RG: Adam Snyder, Daniel Kilgore
RT- Anthony Davis, Alex Boone (swing tackle)
ROLB- Aldon Smith, Cordarro Law
MLB- Patrick Willis, Navoro Bowman, Audie Cole, Blake Constanzo
LOLB- Parys Haralson, Nick Perry
DE- Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Kendal Reyes, Demarcus Dobbs
DT- Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean Francois
CB- Carlos Rodgers, Chris Culliver, Tarrel Brown, Tramaine Brock, Rookie
FS- Dashon Goldson, Reggie Nelson, Colin Jones, Rookie
SS- Donte Whitner, CJ Spillman, Colin Jones
[ Edited by stever on Feb 5, 2012 at 5:46 AM ]