Are Quarterbacks from big time college programs more likely to fail?

I have always had a theory that if your a quarterback from a big time program (Oklahoma, USC, Texas, LSU, etc.) you are more likely to fail because they play at schools that have five star offensive linemen blocking for them and are passing to 5 star wide receivers with a 5 star running back to take pressure off. Then they come to the NFL and play for a team with most likely a bad offensive line and bad WRs and RBs. The transition is to much for them to handle. Players at less prominent schools are able to handle the transition better because they dealt with it more at the college level. Always exceptions to the rule: Carson Palmer has had a pretty good career (not been very effective since 2007)

Some examples:

Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) #1 overall pick. Had a good rookie season and my theory wasnt looking good but this year the main concern against him has come up with him being injured and was having a bad season before injury.

Mark Sanchez (USC) First round pick (#5). never looked good in the pros, If not for great defense would be getting A LOT more criticism.

Matt Leinart (USC) First round pick (#10). (would of been #1 overall to 49ers in 2005) currently backup with Texans

Vince Young (Texas) First round pick (#3). Backup with Eagles (Chance Andy Reid tunes him around?)

JaMarcus Russell (LSU) #1 overall pick. Currently out of the league.

Colt McCoy (Texas) 3rd round pick. Current Browns starter. 74.5 QB Rating this year with 56% completion and 5.5 ypc. 3-3 record with top 5 defense.


Will they fail???

Matt Barkley (USC) Projected top 10 pick.

Landry Jones (Oklahoma) Projected top 10 pick.

Well, I guess it depends on what you consider big time college programs. Are we talking schools only in the top 10?

I don't know how you can hold it against guys that get hurt, whether they are from a big time school or small time school, that doesn't impact whether they get injured. Also keep in mind, top drafted QBs are going to terrible teams that likely can't protect the QB as well and as they take more hits, they are more likely to get hurt.

Bradford - He looks legitimate, I don't know how you can say he isn't living up to his hype. He is held back by being on a horrible team.
Sanchez - I thought he was over rated, like most USC QBs.
Lienart - See above comment on over rated USC QBs
Vince Young - He actually looked good for a short time at Tennesse, then he went psycho. Maybe coming from a big time program and being a champ gave him way too big of an ego.
Russell - Mental case, like Young, maybe success at a big time program gave him a huge ego
McCoy- Don't know how you can knock him for what he has done. He is a young QB on a bad team, drafted in the mid rounds. He is doing about as well as people expected.

And do you consider Cam Newton from a big time school? How about Brady coming from Michigan? Or Peyton coming from Tennesse when they were relevant? Stafford came from Georgie when they were doing pretty good as well.

Also, you gotta realize when you are talking big time school (top 10) vs the rest, you are essentially comparing 10 guys against 110 guys. Out of the 110 guys, tons never even get drafted.

Brady being a part time starter at Michigan and being a 6th round pick, so he dealt with adversity and Cam Newton was on a team most people thought was a fringe top 25 team that he took to the national title, not that they didn't have talent but not "all world" like some of the schools. Tennessee has never really been an elite school and Manning had the "couldn't win the big game" tag on him coming out of college.

I think of the big time programs as the ones that are always in the top 25 ranking and top 10 in recruiting rankings.

peyton manning, joe montana... they both came from programs that were in the top 25. tom brady was no small school prospect. say what you want about how sam bradford is doing now, but i think he will have an excellent career. matthew stafford comes from this small football program called the University of Georgia. carson palmer sure was on that path until his injuries. aaron rodgers? he is a jeff tedford "system quarterback" and he always had great OL blocking for him and had lots of talented perimeter players around him...

i really dont think it's anywhere near that simple. if it was, people would be doing much better jobs of drafting successful quarterbacks

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
peyton manning, joe montana... they both came from programs that were in the top 25. tom brady was no small school prospect. say what you want about how sam bradford is doing now, but i think he will have an excellent career. matthew stafford comes from this small football program called the University of Georgia. carson palmer sure was on that path until his injuries. aaron rodgers? he is a jeff tedford "system quarterback" and he always had great OL blocking for him and had lots of talented perimeter players around him...

i really dont think it's anywhere near that simple. if it was, people would be doing much better jobs of drafting successful quarterbacks

I'm not saying only small schools produce QBs. Matt Ryan was having a pretty good career (this year not so much). He is from Boston College. Not a powerhouse but a good sports school. He was able to lead his team to bowl games, despite the lack of talent of the major powers.

there is also a benefit of BIG PROGRAM QBs, it's not all down side...

you get an idea of how they handle things like
- big crowds, big noise, bright lights.
- lots of hype, lots of build up
- emotionally heated rivalries
- lots of attention
- a team with a lot of other "stars" and dominant personalities in the locker room

these are all things you want to know about a QB, and when a guy comes from a big program, you can watch how they've handled that and gain insight on their composition. small schools guys offer less answers to those questions because they just havent faced it on that magnitude, so how they will adjust to those elements may be more of a crapshoot...

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
peyton manning, joe montana... they both came from programs that were in the top 25. tom brady was no small school prospect. say what you want about how sam bradford is doing now, but i think he will have an excellent career. matthew stafford comes from this small football program called the University of Georgia. carson palmer sure was on that path until his injuries. aaron rodgers? he is a jeff tedford "system quarterback" and he always had great OL blocking for him and had lots of talented perimeter players around him...

i really dont think it's anywhere near that simple. if it was, people would be doing much better jobs of drafting successful quarterbacks

ROdgers hasn't always had great OL blocking.

A couple years ago, I remember their Oline being one of the worst in football.

The Good from big time programs:
Brady
Newton
P. Manning
E. Manning
Vick
Stafford
Rodgers


The Bad from big time programs:
Young
Russell
Leinart
Harrington
Akili Smith

Originally posted by cubanb:

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:

peyton manning, joe montana... they both came from programs that were in the top 25. tom brady was no small school prospect. say what you want about how sam bradford is doing now, but i think he will have an excellent career. matthew stafford comes from this small football program called the University of Georgia. carson palmer sure was on that path until his injuries. aaron rodgers? he is a jeff tedford "system quarterback" and he always had great OL blocking for him and had lots of talented perimeter players around him...

i really dont think it's anywhere near that simple. if it was, people would be doing much better jobs of drafting successful quarterbacks

ROdgers hasn't always had great OL blocking.

A couple years ago, I remember their Oline being one of the worst in football.

We were talking about college. .. So i was referencing cal

Interesting thread. But bigger prog ab's are also likely to be playing against better D's?

I suspect that they will have had better coaching at college, which may mean they are nearer to realising their potential, or ceiling.

And, of course, their failure, if it happens, is simply was more visible and newsworthy.

colt mccoy isn't bad


he just has no one to throw too

no... you just see a lot more failures because so many more QBs are drafted out of big time schools.