MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

What worries me is their “gold star” good-guy ratings. I’m pretty sure that Cody Wallace (D4 #107), Jay Moore (D4 #104) and Bear Pascoe (D6) were all “gold star” personalities, and they were all were busts. So I hope they aren’t putting too much emphasis on their gold star personality over talent. After all, guys like Haley, Fred Dean, Favre, etc, etc, etc were not choirboys.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by 49erJim:

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
It has been another extraordinary draft, and was a crazy ride along the way. In a very abbreviated review of who had the most draft selections in the 254 draft, it appears that OTC once again pinned the MadDog for the second straight year, and once again beat every single draft prognosticator in the business. Yours truly coming in second once again. OTC is the draft king. At some point, when I can reclaim some bit of time from the universe, I hope to do a complete review for my records.

How many of the 254 did you guys have right? I know in the past you have topped most of the experts. Thank you both for all your hard work.

yeah!!

Appreciate it, fellas.

By my initial count, I got 206/254. MD and I both topped 200 for sure.

I've compared Maddog's and OTC's mocks with mine. Predictably, I came in third.

METHOD:
The first number indicates the number of drafted players not on that person's mock. For the second number, I used absolute values indicating how far each prediction ranged from the player's actual slot. I added 255 points when a drafted player wasn't in that person's mock. Lowest number wins.

OTC: 52 misses (202/254); 19,901 points
MD: 53 misses (201/254); 19,943 points
Me: 55 misses (199/254); 21,112 points

Paul, I went back and recounted. My initial number was off, but only by one. Still seeing only 49 misses.

OTC,
Of course, I could have made a mistake although I double-checked my work and used Excel. Would you like me to PM to you the names of players I have your mock as missing?

MadDog just posted up a moment ago that he actually only had 51 misses, and that makes sense because I tracked both our results through the entire draft and knew I had two more players picked than he did, which would put me at the 49 I counted.

I use Excel as well, so go ahead and send it to me, and I'll see what's up.

I've re-checked my list and you are correct. 49 misses. My apologies.

Grading a draft anytime earlier than 3 years is pointless

I don't know why anyone is arguing with MadDog over this. Personally, I was waiting for him to release his analysis.

We all know that draft grades at this point are pretty meaningless, but as fans we love them anyway. I enjoyed MadDog's ratings especially, as he was grading them on risk, as opposed to whether the players will be great or not (no one knows).

To self: If you don't have anything nice to say, then don't say it.

[ Edited by fryet on May 3, 2011 at 07:15:48 ]

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by AmpLee:
That's what happens when you pin yourself to your own prognostications. You inevitably get different results than the experts who actually made the picks and had the resources to study the players. I look forward to bumping this thread in two years with a big giant black crow, but you'll probably just revise history as usual.

I will the first to admit when I am wrong, but thanks for your kind words.

Please go ahead and bump my thoughts on the 2008 Niners' draft, where I thoroughly thrashed the team for the Balmer-Rachal-Smith-Wallace combo. You can bump that puppy all you want.

The "experts" were pretty hot that year.

You can also bump my criticism that Mays was the worst selection in 2010.

Good lord.... I hope this draft class turns out better than 2008. That REALLY hurt us to not have solid play from that class.

Maddog you lost all credibility with me not having curtis holcombe on your big board..........sheesh

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by 49erJim:

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
It has been another extraordinary draft, and was a crazy ride along the way. In a very abbreviated review of who had the most draft selections in the 254 draft, it appears that OTC once again pinned the MadDog for the second straight year, and once again beat every single draft prognosticator in the business. Yours truly coming in second once again. OTC is the draft king. At some point, when I can reclaim some bit of time from the universe, I hope to do a complete review for my records.

How many of the 254 did you guys have right? I know in the past you have topped most of the experts. Thank you both for all your hard work.

yeah!!

Appreciate it, fellas.

By my initial count, I got 206/254. MD and I both topped 200 for sure.

I've compared Maddog's and OTC's mocks with mine. Predictably, I came in third.

METHOD:
The first number indicates the number of drafted players not on that person's mock. For the second number, I used absolute values indicating how far each prediction ranged from the player's actual slot. I added 255 points when a drafted player wasn't in that person's mock. Lowest number wins.

OTC: 52 misses (202/254); 19,901 points
MD: 53 misses (201/254); 19,943 points
Me: 55 misses (199/254); 21,112 points

Paul, I went back and recounted. My initial number was off, but only by one. Still seeing only 49 misses.

OTC,
Of course, I could have made a mistake although I double-checked my work and used Excel. Would you like me to PM to you the names of players I have your mock as missing?

MadDog just posted up a moment ago that he actually only had 51 misses, and that makes sense because I tracked both our results through the entire draft and knew I had two more players picked than he did, which would put me at the 49 I counted.

I use Excel as well, so go ahead and send it to me, and I'll see what's up.

I've re-checked my list and you are correct. 49 misses. My apologies.

It's all good, my friend.

Cool beans.

I don't agree with some of the analysis, but sure appreciate all the hard work you MadDog put into the draft process!

its great to have someone in the zone who goes into that degree of detail so the rest of us have different perspectives on the pick!!

great post and we are fortunate to have your insight!!

go niners!

Originally posted by fryet:
I don't know why anyone is arguing with MadDog over this. Personally, I was waiting for him to release his analysis.

We all know that draft grades at this point are pretty meaningless, but as fans we love them anyway. I enjoyed MadDog's ratings especially, as he was grading them on risk, as opposed to whether the players will be great or not (no one knows).

This confuses me. Can you explain?

In the discussion of quarterbacks, MD seems to clearly state that both Gabbert and Dalton are better than Kaepernick. He also says that Aldon Smith is the 2nd best rush OLB in the draft. These comments seem to indicate that is talking exactly about his perceived quality of the players the team drafted.





Am I missing something?

Keapernick > Dalton

I'd give that pick a B+

Originally posted by Hitman49:
Keapernick > Dalton

I'd give that pick a B+

kaep seems to be the bigger project...the issue that should count in, if someone grades a pick, is "could we get the certain player at all?".
i heard that we needed a qb and we wanted to get dalton...but it seems like nobody wanted to T R A D E for a normal price. so we went to the second-best. still better than nothing. job done.

[ Edited by communist on May 3, 2011 at 18:11:12 ]

Originally posted by fryet:
To self: If you don't have anything nice to say, then don't say it.

You know better than that on message boards.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by Hitman49:
Keapernick > Dalton

I'd give that pick a B+

kaep seems to be the bigger project...the issue that should count in, if someone grades a pick, is "could we get the certain player at all?".
i heard that we needed a qb and we wanted to get dalton...but it seems like nobody wanted to draft for a normal price. so we went to the second-best. still better than nothing. job done.

No where in the post draft did I read we wanted Dalton, did the camera that was in the niners board room show them disappointed when he cam off the board-no. From all indications before and after the draft the niners wanted Kaep. They could have taken Gabbert, but Harbaugh didn't feel like Gabbert as the man. As far as evaluating talent, I'll side with Harbaugh over Maddog (no offense) and I am glad we didn't take him.

As for Smith, Smith played all over. Only straight line speed? Did you see the video where he ran down and caught Kaep himself on one play and batted down a Kaep pass on another (and Kaeps not a short QB). Athletic is not only about strength and speed, it is about instincts too. Strength? It doesn't apply doing a rip move, or hand thrust. Speed, technique, and leverage does. Haven't we learned that judging a player solely by combine numbers is futile? Give me quickness over speed. Smith has it!

MadDog first I want to say thank you for all your hard work that you did with information you gave us throughout this draft process. I can't disagree with your grade assessment.

I feel the Niners were very gutsy with this draft in the fact they looked at a players potential. This point sticks out with the first three pick. All have amazing ability but do have issues that need to be corrected. Our coaching staff has their hands full but can make this draft be a successful one.

My main concern is the lock out. These players need attention and need it now if we want to be successful in 2011. I am scared we might not see any development until mid season of next year which will be to late.

Hope I am wrong and the NFL get a deal done soon because we are one of the teams that needs it most.