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MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

Originally posted by NorthNiner:
What bothers me is almost EVERY pick is a PROJECT. Some even expected to play a completely different position or to go from defense to offense.
not that issue again guys, it is NOT usual that a prospect is a day one starter. do u really think that newton will be ready? i dont.
Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by NorthNiner:
What bothers me is almost EVERY pick is a PROJECT. Some even expected to play a completely different position or to go from defense to offense.
not that issue again guys, it is NOT usual that a prospect is a day one starter. do u really think that newton will be ready? i dont.

Not to mention that most rookies won't be able to start this year because the off-season looks like it is going to be wiped out. If anything, this is the best year to draft "project" players, since this year will be almost a waste for teams like the Niners with so much turnover in the organization and little time to prep resulting in expectations this year.

[ Edited by RedWaltz24 on May 2, 2011 at 08:50:10 ]
  • GORO
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MadDog I agree with everything you said. This draft was not exciting or having the value we normally got under the former GM.

But after hearing the conference calls on 49ers.com I discovered that these guys had been in contact with 49er coaches at their positions, and the assistants coaches were involved in these selections.

The Miller selection I beleive happenced because of the lock out. If the NFL didnot go back into lock out mode, then we may have signed him as an undrafted rookie. But instead they used a draft pick to make sure he was in training camp.

What I do like about Trent is that he listens to the coaches and gets the players they want on the roster. Under Nolan and Sing we needed to upgrade the Qb and pass rusher positions, at least in Harbaugh first year he has attempted to improve these area's on his first draft.
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Nice work as always, MD. Even if I might disagree with some of your assessments, you always back up your views with evidence, which I respect.

All of that being said, it is my view that this is an extremely difficult draft to judge because of the labor circumstances and the behind the scenes stuff going on.

I think what this draft also proves is that the Niners have different criteria for evaluating players than most so-called NFL experts do. Harbaugh has definitely left his mark on this draft...and one can see that he allowed a lot of input from his coaching staff.

Now it seems the Niners place a high priority on character, on a "team first" attitude, on versatility, and on guys who truly love the game. In other words, they value guys who may not be the most talented or highly rated but who are going to work hard to develop their skills and become better players.

Obviously, they also have a tremendous amount of confidence in their coaching staff to identify the types of guys they like and then to develop them into effective players. Bill Walsh had the same type of approach as a matter of fact, and Dwight Clark was the poster child of just such a player.

It is certainly a different way of drafting than most teams do. The only other team that has drafted this way in the past few years is New England. They tend to draft versatile, under the radar players who fit their system. It has certainly worked for the Patriots. Let's hope it does for the Niners.

Cheers!

I concur. Ballke and Bellichek said value is defined by a players ability to perform in the system they run. Sometimes the BPA is not needed or does not possess the characteristics needed to perform well in their system. Areas of need must fit into the equation.
Couple of observations about the picks. Kap will be fine. He does have a funky throwing motion but he gets the ball out and assesses situations quickly. (combination of Rivers and Roethlisberger) I have watched him play numerous times over the last three years. The kid can play. His growth as a QB is impressive. He plays big in big games. Harbaugh will morph the pistol offense into the WCO with Kap leading the way in a few years. Was not impressed with Aldon initially but after reviewing some games he reminds me of Tim Harris. He may play upright but nobody was pushing him around. He has a strong upper body and leverages his length well. Fangio will move him around and take advantage of his skills. QB pressure will result.
It appears the premise for the other picks was draft athletic ability, attitude, and speed, we can coach and teach them to play in our system. I think they did a good job of doing just that. OL picks make sense. I forget who said just because they played a position in college does not mean that is the best use of their skills. Maybe they needed a tackle more than a center and thus had them play that position because that was the need for their team. It will be interesting to watch the fit. Miller will be fun to watch as well. One thing that impressed is that we picked players that the coaching staff spent time with. They did not just depend on the scouting dept. assessment. Coaches coach and I think they understand the type of player they like to work with. Not disappointed that we did not select a NT. My guess that this position was low on the radar. If Franklin is not signed they have Sopoaga and Will T. to compete for that position. I would move Ricky Jean off the NT and take advantage of his bulk and quickness. I think the emphasis on the DL will be plugger in the middle and aggressive players attacking from the outside. Force plays to the middle of the field. Will see.

Enough said, other than, tremendous work by the draft gurus on this board. Maddog, OTC, and others, your hard work and opinions are first rate. You are to be congratulated. Frankly I think Ballke should invite you guys to TC for a day compliments of the 49ers so you can assess your work first hand. Jed are you listening. You guys rock.

[ Edited by fortyyearniner on May 2, 2011 at 09:01:26 ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
That's what happens when you pin yourself to your own prognostications. You inevitably get different results than the experts who actually made the picks and had the resources to study the players. I look forward to bumping this thread in two years with a big giant black crow, but you'll probably just revise history as usual.

I will the first to admit when I am wrong, but thanks for your kind words.

Please go ahead and bump my thoughts on the 2008 Niners' draft, where I thoroughly thrashed the team for the Balmer-Rachal-Smith-Wallace combo. You can bump that puppy all you want.

The "experts" were pretty hot that year.

You can also bump my criticism that Mays was the worst selection in 2010.

No you won't. You proved with the whole Crabtree saga that you can't/won't admit when you are wrong. But that's neither here or there.

My opinion of this draft (if I had to say) is that it's a B with the possibility to be an A+ or a C-. We drafted a lot of high ceiling guys and I've been given no reason to believe that this coaching staff won't do it's job and turn three or four of these guys into quality starters or maybe even stars.

However, who can even really say. I think it's funny that many on this board are so gung-ho on how they feel about the draft. The truth is, the guys who get paid to do this and have the resources to properly evaluate all the players are the ones who we should listen to. Sure, if our front office/coaching staff were full of personnel from '08 I might take their enthusiasm with a grain of salt, but we have a whole new staff of guys in here and until they prove themselves incompetent, I'm just gonna have to take their word over yours.
In looking at the limited film of Aldon Smith on youtube, there are very limited amounts of time where he is asked to "bend the corner" to get to the QB. He also does look a little stiff in the hips.

While that concerns me a bit, what I did see from the film was him being able to get to the QB to the inside with good quickness, really quick hands and an amazing swim move (greatly aided by his long arms). Also, I did not see (from the little tape available to me) him lineup really wide like a lot of pass rushers like to do. Actually, a lot of the time he lined up at DT and was virtually unblockable in passing situations.

In reality he actually reminds me much more of Justin Tuck (or Brian Orakpo) than he does of Demarcus Ware because Aldon is not a pure speed rusher. The ability for him to potentially play rush DT on nickel downs will also be extremely valuable, particularly if JS continues to see double teams.

Overall, Aldon has bust potential, but so do all of the d-linemen / rush linebackers selected in the first round. The numbers over the last few years show that.
I'm okay with the pick, I would have been more disappointed had it been Prince or Gabbert, and I am hoping Fangio will be able to coach him up and have him do what he does best: get after the QB.
Originally posted by drake49er:
Barrows did report Bruce Miller will get practice reps on D. Not like it matters much though. At the minimum, He will be a solid special teams player.

He probably wont make the roster, looks a like a practice squad guy to me.
Thank you for your perspective, MD.

On a side note, I've noticed a lot less s**t-slinging in these threads this year and I credit that to the change in your tone. You should be commended for that, MadDog.
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Thank you for your perspective, MD.

On a side note, I've noticed a lot less s**t-slinging in these threads this year and I credit that to the change in your tone. You should be commended for that, MadDog.

I was about to post these same two thoughts.

Well done, MD.
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by 49erJim:
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
It has been another extraordinary draft, and was a crazy ride along the way. In a very abbreviated review of who had the most draft selections in the 254 draft, it appears that OTC once again pinned the MadDog for the second straight year, and once again beat every single draft prognosticator in the business. Yours truly coming in second once again. OTC is the draft king. At some point, when I can reclaim some bit of time from the universe, I hope to do a complete review for my records.

How many of the 254 did you guys have right? I know in the past you have topped most of the experts. Thank you both for all your hard work.

yeah!!

Appreciate it, fellas.

By my initial count, I got 206/254. MD and I both topped 200 for sure.

I've compared Maddog's and OTC's mocks with mine. Predictably, I came in third.

METHOD:
The first number indicates the number of drafted players not on that person's mock. For the second number, I used absolute values indicating how far each prediction ranged from the player's actual slot. I added 255 points when a drafted player wasn't in that person's mock. Lowest number wins.

OTC: 52 misses (202/254); 19,901 points
MD: 53 misses (201/254); 19,943 points
Me: 55 misses (199/254); 21,112 points

Paul, I went back and recounted. My initial number was off, but only by one. Still seeing only 49 misses.
too long, didn't read
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
That's what happens when you pin yourself to your own prognostications. You inevitably get different results than the experts who actually made the picks and had the resources to study the players. I look forward to bumping this thread in two years with a big giant black crow, but you'll probably just revise history as usual.

I will the first to admit when I am wrong, but thanks for your kind words.

Please go ahead and bump my thoughts on the 2008 Niners' draft, where I thoroughly thrashed the team for the Balmer-Rachal-Smith-Wallace combo. You can bump that puppy all you want.

The "experts" were pretty hot that year.

You can also bump my criticism that Mays was the worst selection in 2010.

No you won't. You proved with the whole Crabtree saga that you can't/won't admit when you are wrong. But that's neither here or there.

My opinion of this draft (if I had to say) is that it's a B with the possibility to be an A+ or a C-. We drafted a lot of high ceiling guys and I've been given no reason to believe that this coaching staff won't do it's job and turn three or four of these guys into quality starters or maybe even stars.

However, who can even really say. I think it's funny that many on this board are so gung-ho on how they feel about the draft. The truth is, the guys who get paid to do this and have the resources to properly evaluate all the players are the ones who we should listen to. Sure, if our front office/coaching staff were full of personnel from '08 I might take their enthusiasm with a grain of salt, but we have a whole new staff of guys in here and until they prove themselves incompetent, I'm just gonna have to take their word over yours.

You have a blind spot when it comes to David Baas, who's a decent center. That's neither here nor there, great job with the big board and number of correct picks.

I like the Aldon Smith selection as I'm currently in KC with a number of Tiger Alumni as friends. I've watched quite a few games (as opposed to highlight reels) and he's really dominant in the big 12. He alters plays with very consistent pressure and almost single handedly beat Oklahoma. He's going to be the opposite of Manny, great against the pass and mediocre versus the run.
well said md
  • mayo49
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Originally posted by Negrodamus:
well said md

I second that, Negro.
Not picking Gabbert and grabbing Smith should get an A regardless of any opinions on Aldon Smith being the best available or not.

Gabbert is a huge reach at 7, he looks good but the production just isn't there to justify going in the top ten. The Big 12 was incredibly weak last year compared to previous years and he regressed as the conference got weaker.

The rest of the picks range from A's like Hunter to some wtf's like drafting a DE to play FB, so B is perfect.