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MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
As stated before, I hope I am wrong about the grade as well. I hope it is the greatest draft class in NFL history. Only time will tell.

Based on what we have seen in preseason, I don't see a major improvement in the grade. None of the guys are starting, so we have no idea how they match up against the best players. Smith has looked good in practice, and pretty good in games against second stringers. But, I think fans really exaggerate his performance so far. The guy I targeted with the 7th has been more impressive this preseason, JJ Watt. We'll get a chance to see him against our team this week.

CK has been up and down. He's a rookie QB.

Culliver looks promising, but is probably a 4th or 5th CB in 2011.

Hunter looks like a really nice change of pace back. Again, he's running with backups.

The late rounders look like backup, role players. Kilgore may be better than I believed, but once again, we are talking about playing with second and third teamers.

Check back in a couple years. Usually, I am pretty good in my analysis, and prove to be correct.

Usually you are accurate. You do, however, misread players on occassion. Brooks is a prime example. You never thought he'd make much of a back up let alone a starter.

Still no one is perfect...and you usually preface your negative comments by saying you hope you're wrong.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
As stated before, I hope I am wrong about the grade as well. I hope it is the greatest draft class in NFL history. Only time will tell.

Based on what we have seen in preseason, I don't see a major improvement in the grade. None of the guys are starting, so we have no idea how they match up against the best players. Smith has looked good in practice, and pretty good in games against second stringers. But, I think fans really exaggerate his performance so far. The guy I targeted with the 7th has been more impressive this preseason, JJ Watt. We'll get a chance to see him against our team this week.

CK has been up and down. He's a rookie QB.

Culliver looks promising, but is probably a 4th or 5th CB in 2011.

Hunter looks like a really nice change of pace back. Again, he's running with backups.

The late rounders look like backup, role players. Kilgore may be better than I believed, but once again, we are talking about playing with second and third teamers.

Check back in a couple years. Usually, I am pretty good in my analysis, and prove to be correct.

Watt has been pretty impressive so far this pre season. He gets a great push and uses his hands well. Personally I still would have picked Aldon over Watt b/c I feel the team just had a bigger hole at OLB then DE. I think they need to put Aldon in with the starters and give him 1st team reps. I want to see him vs 1st team talent. I don't like a draft where everybody is a backup. Your 1st and 2nd rounders need to be contributing right away. Of course when you have draft a qb in the 1st or 2nd then the circumstances are different. The only pick that really bothered me was culliver and the guy has played well. So only time will tell.
Originally posted by lamontb:
Watt has been pretty impressive so far this pre season. He gets a great push and uses his hands well. Personally I still would have picked Aldon over Watt b/c I feel the team just had a bigger hole at OLB then DE. I think they need to put Aldon in with the starters and give him 1st team reps. I want to see him vs 1st team talent. I don't like a draft where everybody is a backup. Your 1st and 2nd rounders need to be contributing right away. Of course when you have draft a qb in the 1st or 2nd then the circumstances are different. The only pick that really bothered me was culliver and the guy has played well. So only time will tell.

The Niners selected a number of athletic, raw players, who are just not ready to make contributions yet. The players may pan out, or may flop. Haralson may end up holding onto the starting role in 2011, and then hand off to Smith in 2012. I don't see Smith dominating the lower level players, and that should be a concern for fans who want him to post big numbers in 2012.

The season starts in about two weeks, and I am not sure that is enough time to make a major leap forward into major minutes.
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Usually you are accurate. You do, however, misread players on occassion. Brooks is a prime example. You never thought he'd make much of a back up let alone a starter.

Still no one is perfect...and you usually preface your negative comments by saying you hope you're wrong.
There is no doubt that I wwas wrong about Brooks. Not that Brooks is lighting the world on fire, which he is not. But, I saw him struggle badly in Cinci, and I didn't think he had much chance to make a major contribution for the team. Starting is something I did not envision.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Check back in a couple years. Usually, I am pretty good in my analysis, and prove to be correct.

I enjoy reading your analysis, but to be fair, your analysis is hedged so much that's hard for you not to be entirely correct.
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Originally posted by Jakemall:
Usually you are accurate. You do, however, misread players on occassion. Brooks is a prime example. You never thought he'd make much of a back up let alone a starter.

Still no one is perfect...and you usually preface your negative comments by saying you hope you're wrong.

i don't think Maddog is an evaluator of talent as much as he's an evaluator of players' stock.
Coaching makes a world of difference and our DC does not believe that linebackers are pre-made to play specific roles. In other words -- he wants P. Willy to be just an effective passrushing threat as Aldon Smith. He doesn't believe in inside/outside play nor specific roles for each position. In his scheme -- his view -- every backer has to do every job -- drop back in coverage, play the run, rush the passer, etc.

This is a unique -- and I hope -- refreshing change. I always wondered why Patrick Willis wasn't used more as a pass rushing threat, since he had obvious speed to run down ballcarriers and the strength to throw off linemen. It's a rare talent. He has it. And we may have wasted that talent somewhat.

I mean -- would anyone be mildly surprised if it's WILLIS who leads the NFL in sacks and not Brooks/Haralson/Bowman/Smith?

I wouldn't. And that's the key change. Plus -- whether it's Fangio or Harbaugh -- that defensive backfield has been completely rebuilt. That is refreshing to say the least. I'm not going to miss the plodders in the slightest.

However -- no matter how well the starting unit plays -- the most important position the team remains QB. Harbaugh has hitched his wagon to Alice Smith, which I still believe is an enormous, terrible mistake. I expect Alice to completely forget what Harbaugh has taught him and revert to his meltdown ways once the practice games are over.

Sure -- I saw his game against Oakland. Alice looked good. But he's looked good in preseason before. It's a brand new ballgame when they start playing for real marbles.
^ I just KNEW you'd work A. Smith into a thread about the 2011 draft.
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
^ I just KNEW you'd work A. Smith into a thread about the 2011 draft.

Sorry. But didn't I make some nice points with the defense?
Originally posted by billbird2111:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
^ I just KNEW you'd work A. Smith into a thread about the 2011 draft.

Sorry. But didn't I make some nice points with the defense?

dont worry bill alex wont let you down, harbaugh isn't stupid enough to make a big mistake on a guy who wont play well when the lights come on. He is going to do well finally.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Usually you are accurate. You do, however, misread players on occassion. Brooks is a prime example. You never thought he'd make much of a back up let alone a starter.

Still no one is perfect...and you usually preface your negative comments by saying you hope you're wrong.
There is no doubt that I wwas wrong about Brooks. Not that Brooks is lighting the world on fire, which he is not. But, I saw him struggle badly in Cinci, and I didn't think he had much chance to make a major contribution for the team. Starting is something I did not envision.

Didn't think he had much of a chance? You basically called him trash and bagged the FO like you have been Baalke recently for picking him up, you weren't just wrong, but completely 180 degrees wrong.
Originally posted by WINiner:
Didn't think he had much of a chance? You basically called him trash and bagged the FO like you have been Baalke recently for picking him up, you weren't just wrong, but completely 180 degrees wrong.

I didn't call him "trash", I called him a "turd". And he was certainly turdish in Cinci, not able to beat out the likes of Jim Maxwell. He had a new opportunity, and it took awhile, but he is finally contributing.

What is the difference between wrong and 180 degrees wrong?
Originally posted by Baugh_Area:
i don't think Maddog is an evaluator of talent as much as he's an evaluator of players' stock.

I like evaluating player stock, because it should show the general guidelines of where a player is selected in the draft, so a team does not select a 6th round player with a 2nd round pick.

However, sometimes 6th round players should be selected in the 4th round (John Sullivan vs. Cody Wallace).

Overall, I feel confident in my ability to analyze talent, and make judgments. I am often right, often wrong, as any NFL GM. I believe if you look at the history of the Niners' selections over the past few years, you would be much happier with my selections compared to our GM's, simply based on who I had on my draft board. For instance, in 2010, on my draft board, I had the Niners selecting Mike Iupati and Dez Bryant in the first round (without a trade up), Morgan Burnett in the second round, and had Colt McCoy as the BPA on the board at 79 when the Niners were on the clock and traded to SD. Now, I certainly would have missed on the 113th selection (the pick that was traded in the A. Davis move up) with Dallas CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, who has been injured, but I would take the BPA I had on my draft board over the selections the team made last year.

As for this class, it is a boom or bust with the top two guys. I do not see a dynamic final product with A. Smith, although I see a eight to ten year player who racks up about 7-8 sacks/year. Not a bad player at all. I just saw other guys who are more dynamic, and of greater value with the 7th overall. I project JJ Watt as a Pro-Bowl caliber player, so he graded higher on my board, and thus feel he was a better overall pick.

I am simply not that high on CK, although I will say that he could be very good. I just see a much greater chance of failure.

Lot of risk in both players, and this team needs to hit on first and second rounders, something that has not happened near enough in the past.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
There is no doubt that I wwas wrong about Brooks. Not that Brooks is lighting the world on fire, which he is not. But, I saw him struggle badly in Cinci, and I didn't think he had much chance to make a major contribution for the team. Starting is something I did not envision.

Sorry if you already posted it in here. But what do you think our record will be?
Not sold at all on Gabbert and I dont think for a second we were targeting a QB inthe 1st...also Aldon Smith looks like the real deal.

Dont agree with much about your assessment of our draft but hey...that whay the internet is for haha