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MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
A final note on the concept of a "reach". I tend to avoid the term since it means so many things to different people. I tend to use the term, "value". Teams need to select players of value, not exclusively where they are projected to land, but also how teams grade the player.

In a player's case, such as Aldon Smith, his value could be all over the place. The Texans had a giant bullseye on him, and that I why I projected him to go to them at number 11. They obviously think his upside is tremendous, and they were willing to take the risk in selecting a raw, inexperienced guy. The Niners felt the same way.

I, and probably some other teams (it is hard to know each team's board), saw a little of Jason Pierre Paul in Smith, and perceive his value to be mid-first range, since the risk is pretty high. The upside, big. The chance for being a bust, higher than average.

JPP didnt produce as much on the field as aldon smith not even close he was just a combine beast

Aldon posted better numbers, for sure. Although JPP started only 7 games, so he averaged about 1 sack per start. The height/weight/experience/big upside more than dominant productivity is the strong comparison.

When it comes to productivity off the edge, the numbers are nearly identical. A huge amount of Smith's sacks came as a result of lining up against a guard as a DT on passing downs. JPP's bulk of sacks came off the edge. Now, the team has already stated that they may have him play the DT role along with Justin on passing downs. That could be interesting as his body continues to grow.

Can he be a dominant edge rusher, even though he didn't show it in college? Maybe. Could this be a moot point if he becomes a great interior pass rusher on 3rd downs? Sure. I just see a bit too much riskiness at number seven. That is why I gave the pick a C grade.

lots of controversy this year.....should be interesting to see how everything plays out.
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
A final note on the concept of a "reach". I tend to avoid the term since it means so many things to different people. I tend to use the term, "value". Teams need to select players of value, not exclusively where they are projected to land, but also how teams grade the player.

In a player's case, such as Aldon Smith, his value could be all over the place. The Texans had a giant bullseye on him, and that I why I projected him to go to them at number 11. They obviously think his upside is tremendous, and they were willing to take the risk in selecting a raw, inexperienced guy. The Niners felt the same way.

I, and probably some other teams (it is hard to know each team's board), saw a little of Jason Pierre Paul in Smith, and perceive his value to be mid-first range, since the risk is pretty high. The upside, big. The chance for being a bust, higher than average.

JPP didnt produce as much on the field as aldon smith not even close he was just a combine beast

Aldon posted better numbers, for sure. Although JPP started only 7 games, so he averaged about 1 sack per start. The height/weight/experience/big upside more than dominant productivity is the strong comparison.

When it comes to productivity off the edge, the numbers are nearly identical. A huge amount of Smith's sacks came as a result of lining up against a guard as a DT on passing downs. JPP's bulk of sacks came off the edge. Now, the team has already stated that they may have him play the DT role along with Justin on passing downs. That could be interesting as his body continues to grow.

Can he be a dominant edge rusher, even though he didn't show it in college? Maybe. Could this be a moot point if he becomes a great interior pass rusher on 3rd downs? Sure. I just see a bit too much riskiness at number seven. That is why I gave the pick a C grade.

Apparently, I like this selection more than you. I watched several games (living in KC) this year and he stood out more than others. When he was healthy (IE against Illinois with a very mobile QB) he was extremely disruptive from the edge and the interior.

My only reservation being that when he was injured, his replacement came in and was also very productive. Was it the scheme? That being said, he looks very much the part of a pass rusher on the field and I see him filling that need as the best player available.

Small admission: I was surprised when his name was called, albeit pleasantly.
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

I do agree that a player doesn't become better just because the 49ers picked them, but on the other hand I don't think it is good to grade a draft because a player doesn't have elite measurables. If that is the case, then Cam Newton should have been ranked on your board as the best QB available, which I believe you have stated was not the case. At this point, I think the best we can do in grading a draft is the following:

1. Was the player a reach? (i.e. if the 49ers didn't take them, would they have likely been grabbed soon)
2. Does the player fill a need? IMO, choosing BPA will probably net you a C draft. Sure you got players that will help you down the road, but your team did not get significantly better in the short term. For it to be an A draft, you must have a combination of BPA plus need.
3. Does the player fit the scheme that the team uses? For example, are you drafting a 4-3 defensive end, and trying to make him to be an OLB that doesn't really suit his skillset?

You also add an additional criteria that I respect, which is risk. Cam Newton, for example, would be a high risk pick, which I agree is not what you want at the top of the draft. Aldon Smith, imo, is a low risk player. He may not have a high ceiling due to his measurables, but it unlikely that he will be a bust. He certainly has the measurables to be a Pro-Bowl player, considering how many Pro Bowl players are not top 10 picks.

The reason I mention measureables as one factor is simply due to the 7th overall selection. At number seven, you really want a guy with eye-popping measurables for a rush backer. He should be markably quicker, stronger, more agile than the pack, and the combine measurables do not show this to be true. But, it is also true that measurables alone are not the only criteria.

Smith is also switching positions, has played less than two years, and because of that, I feel he is a greater risk than a guy who played more, played in the position he will suit up in the NFL. For instance, let's compare Von Miller and Aldon Smith. Miller played extensively in college, played the 3-4 OLB position, was team captain, and was highly productive in rushing the QB in a conventional way. Smith played less than two years, is switching from a DE to an OLB, and showed greatest productivity rushing from the inside rather than the outside. Miller also displayed the eye-popping numbers you really want for a pick that high.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

The reason I mention measureables as one factor is simply due to the 7th overall selection. At number seven, you really want a guy with eye-popping measurables for a rush backer. He should be markably quicker, stronger, more agile than the pack, and the combine measurables do not show this to be true. But, it is also true that measurables alone are not the only criteria.

Smith is also switching positions, has played less than two years, and because of that, I feel he is a greater risk than a guy who played more, played in the position he will suit up in the NFL. For instance, let's compare Von Miller and Aldon Smith. Miller played extensively in college, played the 3-4 OLB position, was team captain, and was highly productive in rushing the QB in a conventional way. Smith played less than two years, is switching from a DE to an OLB, and showed greatest productivity rushing from the inside rather than the outside. Miller also displayed the eye-popping numbers you really want for a pick that high.

It's a little unfair to Smith to compare him to Miller who was a top 5 player in this draft imo (Dareus, Fairley, Peterson AJ Green, Miller). We didn't have a chance to draft Miller.

I am a little surprised Smith didn't perform better in the agility drills, as from everything I saw and read agility seemed to be his biggest strength. But the combine isn't everything although it is a bit concerning.

I wanted Blaine Gabbert here, and if we had had a different coach than Harbaugh I would've been pretty upset, but since Harbaugh was drafted in large part because of his skills evaluating and coaching up QB's I trust his judgment a little more here. Amukamara was really the only other legitimate option here (and I guess Quinn as well but he has just as many concerns if not more) and I personally think adding a disruptive pass rusher would help our defense a lot more by allowing the CB's to not have to cover quite as long than adding another corner while still having an abysmal pass rush.

Just my .02
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

Everyone understands the concept of the big board, yours, OTC's, and others'. Its just a potential draft order ranking, not a prediction of ability or eventual success. That being said, however, you ranked Quinn relatively high--as high as #7 at one point--in all the various versions of your "big board" from your "Top 100" board until your final "big board."

You initially had Aldon Smith as low as a 33rd overall pick, til he made it up to 11--still behind Quinn--on your last "big board." I understand, those were all "rankings," predictions of where a player might be drafted, not opinions or predictions of ability.

Kudos for seeing something in Aldon Smith and moving him up from the initial 33rd to 11th.

But you now say that you really thought Aldon Smith was a better OLB prospect than Quinn all along. You just didn't think the various NFL GMs, HCs and scouting departments would be able to figure that out?

Wouldn't you "rank" Aldon Smith higher than Quinn at some point if you really thought he's the better player or prospect?

Where is this "Best Available Board" where you ranked Aldon Smith ahead of Quinn at OLB even before the draft. I don't see it anywhere.

Its easy to understand that the draft doesn't suddenly make a guy into a better football player.

The draft didn't make Aldon Smith a star, it just made him a 49er. So guys on the board read up on him and compare notes. Suddenly there's alot more interest in him--after he's drafted. What a surprise. Go figure. Who wodda thought it.

Even you are now saying "I had him as the second best OLB prospect all along."

Based on that statement and all your prior posts, it appears that you're doing what you accuse others of doing--overstating what you think of the guy just because the Niner's drafted him.

Maybe you're more of a fan than you thought. There's nothing wrong with being a fan.

Would you be so kind as to provide the link to that predraft post of yours, where you have Aldon Smith as a better OLB prospect than Quinn? I've looked, but I cannot find it.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

Everyone understands the concept of the big board, yours, OTC's, and others'. Its just a potential draft order ranking, not a prediction of ability or eventual success. That being said, however, you ranked Quinn relatively high--as high as #7 at one point--in all the various versions of your "big board" from your "Top 100" board until your final "big board."

You initially had Aldon Smith as low as a 33rd overall pick, til he made it up to 11--still behind Quinn--on your last "big board." I understand, those were all "rankings," predictions of where a player might be drafted, not opinions or predictions of ability.

Kudos for seeing something in Aldon Smith and moving him up from the initial 33rd to 11th.

But you now say that you really thought Aldon Smith was a better OLB prospect than Quinn all along. You just didn't think the various NFL GMs, HCs and scouting departments would be able to figure that out?

Wouldn't you "rank" Aldon Smith higher than Quinn at some point if you really thought he's the better player or prospect?

Where is this "Best Available Board" where you ranked Aldon Smith ahead of Quinn at OLB even before the draft. I don't see it anywhere.

Its easy to understand that the draft doesn't suddenly make a guy into a better football player.

The draft didn't make Aldon Smith a star, it just made him a 49er. So guys on the board read up on him and compare notes. Suddenly there's alot more interest in him--after he's drafted. What a surprise. Go figure. Who wodda thought it.

Even you are now saying "I had him as the second best OLB prospect all along."

Based on that statement and all your prior posts, it appears that you're doing what you accuse others of doing--overstating what you think of the guy just because the Niner's drafted him.

Maybe you're more of a fan than you thought. There's nothing wrong with being a fan.

Would you be so kind as to provide the link to that predraft post of yours, where you have Aldon Smith as a better OLB prospect than Quinn? I've looked, but I cannot find it.

Teams sometimes miss on their evaluation of players, and that is why you have guys like Joe Montana go in the third round, and Jim Drukenmiller in the first. In fact, the whole league can be wrong with a specific player, like a Marques Colston, who lasted until the 7th round. It sometimes happens. For instance, I have Rodney Hudson graded as a top fifteen pick (I believe he is the best offensive lineman in this draft), but he lasted until the 55th pick.

As for Quinn, I never graded him higher than Smith, but simply thought a team would snatch him first.

As for a BPA board, on a number of threads, I posted my rankings. I did not start a thread on this subject. If you want my BPA board, I would be happy to post. It is on an Excel spreadsheet.

Once again, I think you are not getting the main concept. I graded Smith as the second best OLB in this draft, but would not have graded him as the 7th best player, nor selected him in that slot. I did think the Texans would snatch him at 11, but that does not mean I believe he was the 7th or 11th best player. I graded him lower than that. It just means that I had players of other positions graded higher, and wasn't terribly enthusiastic about this year's OLB class.

It could be that Smith ends up a great player. He has a huge upside. But, the risks are many, as outlined before, and those risks caused me to grade him lower and give the Niners only a C grade on the pick, since there were better options on the board at the time.
I dont buy into combine numbers, the combine is a idiotic method of evaluating.

Id rather look at game tape and see what he did, not if he ran a poor 40, or whatever.

Just stupid IMO.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

Everyone understands the concept of the big board, yours, OTC's, and others'. Its just a potential draft order ranking, not a prediction of ability or eventual success. That being said, however, you ranked Quinn relatively high--as high as #7 at one point--in all the various versions of your "big board" from your "Top 100" board until your final "big board."

You initially had Aldon Smith as low as a 33rd overall pick, til he made it up to 11--still behind Quinn--on your last "big board." I understand, those were all "rankings," predictions of where a player might be drafted, not opinions or predictions of ability.

Kudos for seeing something in Aldon Smith and moving him up from the initial 33rd to 11th.

But you now say that you really thought Aldon Smith was a better OLB prospect than Quinn all along. You just didn't think the various NFL GMs, HCs and scouting departments would be able to figure that out?

Wouldn't you "rank" Aldon Smith higher than Quinn at some point if you really thought he's the better player or prospect?

Where is this "Best Available Board" where you ranked Aldon Smith ahead of Quinn at OLB even before the draft. I don't see it anywhere.

Its easy to understand that the draft doesn't suddenly make a guy into a better football player.

The draft didn't make Aldon Smith a star, it just made him a 49er. So guys on the board read up on him and compare notes. Suddenly there's alot more interest in him--after he's drafted. What a surprise. Go figure. Who wodda thought it.

Even you are now saying "I had him as the second best OLB prospect all along."

Based on that statement and all your prior posts, it appears that you're doing what you accuse others of doing--overstating what you think of the guy just because the Niner's drafted him.

Maybe you're more of a fan than you thought. There's nothing wrong with being a fan.

Would you be so kind as to provide the link to that predraft post of yours, where you have Aldon Smith as a better OLB prospect than Quinn? I've looked, but I cannot find it.

Teams sometimes miss on their evaluation of players, and that is why you have guys like Joe Montana go in the third round, and Jim Drukenmiller in the first. In fact, the whole league can be wrong with a specific player, like a Marques Colston, who lasted until the 7th round. It sometimes happens. For instance, I have Rodney Hudson graded as a top fifteen pick (I believe he is the best offensive lineman in this draft), but he lasted until the 55th pick.

As for Quinn, I never graded him higher than Smith, but simply thought a team would snatch him first.

As for a BPA board, on a number of threads, I posted my rankings. I did not start a thread on this subject. If you want my BPA board, I would be happy to post. It is on an Excel spreadsheet.

Once again, I think you are not getting the main concept. I graded Smith as the second best OLB in this draft, but would not have graded him as the 7th best player, nor selected him in that slot. I did think the Texans would snatch him at 11, but that does not mean I believe he was the 7th or 11th best player. I graded him lower than that. It just means that I had players of other positions graded higher, and wasn't terribly enthusiastic about this year's OLB class.

It could be that Smith ends up a great player. He has a huge upside. But, the risks are many, as outlined before, and those risks caused me to grade him lower and give the Niners only a C grade on the pick, since there were better options on the board at the time.

Sure. Okay. Gotcha.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

Everyone understands the concept of the big board, yours, OTC's, and others'. Its just a potential draft order ranking, not a prediction of ability or eventual success. That being said, however, you ranked Quinn relatively high--as high as #7 at one point--in all the various versions of your "big board" from your "Top 100" board until your final "big board."

You initially had Aldon Smith as low as a 33rd overall pick, til he made it up to 11--still behind Quinn--on your last "big board." I understand, those were all "rankings," predictions of where a player might be drafted, not opinions or predictions of ability.

Kudos for seeing something in Aldon Smith and moving him up from the initial 33rd to 11th.

But you now say that you really thought Aldon Smith was a better OLB prospect than Quinn all along. You just didn't think the various NFL GMs, HCs and scouting departments would be able to figure that out?

Wouldn't you "rank" Aldon Smith higher than Quinn at some point if you really thought he's the better player or prospect?

Where is this "Best Available Board" where you ranked Aldon Smith ahead of Quinn at OLB even before the draft. I don't see it anywhere.

Its easy to understand that the draft doesn't suddenly make a guy into a better football player.

The draft didn't make Aldon Smith a star, it just made him a 49er. So guys on the board read up on him and compare notes. Suddenly there's alot more interest in him--after he's drafted. What a surprise. Go figure. Who wodda thought it.

Even you are now saying "I had him as the second best OLB prospect all along."

Based on that statement and all your prior posts, it appears that you're doing what you accuse others of doing--overstating what you think of the guy just because the Niner's drafted him.

Maybe you're more of a fan than you thought. There's nothing wrong with being a fan.

Would you be so kind as to provide the link to that predraft post of yours, where you have Aldon Smith as a better OLB prospect than Quinn? I've looked, but I cannot find it.

Teams sometimes miss on their evaluation of players, and that is why you have guys like Joe Montana go in the third round, and Jim Drukenmiller in the first. In fact, the whole league can be wrong with a specific player, like a Marques Colston, who lasted until the 7th round. It sometimes happens. For instance, I have Rodney Hudson graded as a top fifteen pick (I believe he is the best offensive lineman in this draft), but he lasted until the 55th pick.

As for Quinn, I never graded him higher than Smith, but simply thought a team would snatch him first.

As for a BPA board, on a number of threads, I posted my rankings. I did not start a thread on this subject. If you want my BPA board, I would be happy to post. It is on an Excel spreadsheet.

Once again, I think you are not getting the main concept. I graded Smith as the second best OLB in this draft, but would not have graded him as the 7th best player, nor selected him in that slot. I did think the Texans would snatch him at 11, but that does not mean I believe he was the 7th or 11th best player. I graded him lower than that. It just means that I had players of other positions graded higher, and wasn't terribly enthusiastic about this year's OLB class.

It could be that Smith ends up a great player. He has a huge upside. But, the risks are many, as outlined before, and those risks caused me to grade him lower and give the Niners only a C grade on the pick, since there were better options on the board at the time.

Sure. Okay. Gotcha.

Not to butt in, but as one who personally discussed Pass-Rushing prospects with MD via PM, I can confirm this.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

I think you misunderstand the Big Board that OTC and I put out. It is not ranking the players of the draft. It is where we believe the player will be selected. If you have followed me this offseason, you would surely know that I did not believe Cam Newton was the best player in the draft. He was in the first slot in my Big Board. I did think Quinn would be drafted one slot before Smith, but I graded Smith above Quinn.

I do have a Best Available Board, which is a ranking, but that is not the 254 Big Board that I regularly post.

As for the sudden interest in Smith from Niners' fans, more media attention does not make a player better. Just because more 49ers articles are written on him after the draft does not mean he runs faster, jumps higher, bends better, spins faster, hustles more, produces more. It just means that he is suddenly "ours", and all of the weaknesses or limitations he current possesses suddenly, magically disappears, because more attention is placed on him. In other words, why should opinion on Smith shift, suddenly because he is one of ours?He is the same player. Nobody sprinkled magic powder on him after the card was turned in. The same goes for the QB post. If Andy Dalton was the Niners' selection, he'd be at 80%, if Ricky Stanzi, 77%. If Tyrod Taylor, 60. If Fred Taylor of Florida International was picked as the last player in the draft, then maybe 50%.

I have argued this for years, players suddenly do not perform better because they put on a 49ers helmet. There is no magic in them.

Everyone understands the concept of the big board, yours, OTC's, and others'. Its just a potential draft order ranking, not a prediction of ability or eventual success. That being said, however, you ranked Quinn relatively high--as high as #7 at one point--in all the various versions of your "big board" from your "Top 100" board until your final "big board."

You initially had Aldon Smith as low as a 33rd overall pick, til he made it up to 11--still behind Quinn--on your last "big board." I understand, those were all "rankings," predictions of where a player might be drafted, not opinions or predictions of ability.

Kudos for seeing something in Aldon Smith and moving him up from the initial 33rd to 11th.

But you now say that you really thought Aldon Smith was a better OLB prospect than Quinn all along. You just didn't think the various NFL GMs, HCs and scouting departments would be able to figure that out?

Wouldn't you "rank" Aldon Smith higher than Quinn at some point if you really thought he's the better player or prospect?

Where is this "Best Available Board" where you ranked Aldon Smith ahead of Quinn at OLB even before the draft. I don't see it anywhere.

Its easy to understand that the draft doesn't suddenly make a guy into a better football player.

The draft didn't make Aldon Smith a star, it just made him a 49er. So guys on the board read up on him and compare notes. Suddenly there's alot more interest in him--after he's drafted. What a surprise. Go figure. Who wodda thought it.

Even you are now saying "I had him as the second best OLB prospect all along."

Based on that statement and all your prior posts, it appears that you're doing what you accuse others of doing--overstating what you think of the guy just because the Niner's drafted him.

Maybe you're more of a fan than you thought. There's nothing wrong with being a fan.

Would you be so kind as to provide the link to that predraft post of yours, where you have Aldon Smith as a better OLB prospect than Quinn? I've looked, but I cannot find it.

Teams sometimes miss on their evaluation of players, and that is why you have guys like Joe Montana go in the third round, and Jim Drukenmiller in the first. In fact, the whole league can be wrong with a specific player, like a Marques Colston, who lasted until the 7th round. It sometimes happens. For instance, I have Rodney Hudson graded as a top fifteen pick (I believe he is the best offensive lineman in this draft), but he lasted until the 55th pick.

As for Quinn, I never graded him higher than Smith, but simply thought a team would snatch him first.

As for a BPA board, on a number of threads, I posted my rankings. I did not start a thread on this subject. If you want my BPA board, I would be happy to post. It is on an Excel spreadsheet.

Once again, I think you are not getting the main concept. I graded Smith as the second best OLB in this draft, but would not have graded him as the 7th best player, nor selected him in that slot. I did think the Texans would snatch him at 11, but that does not mean I believe he was the 7th or 11th best player. I graded him lower than that. It just means that I had players of other positions graded higher, and wasn't terribly enthusiastic about this year's OLB class.

It could be that Smith ends up a great player. He has a huge upside. But, the risks are many, as outlined before, and those risks caused me to grade him lower and give the Niners only a C grade on the pick, since there were better options on the board at the time.

Sure. Okay. Gotcha.

Not to butt in, but as one who personally discussed Pass-Rushing prospects with MD via PM, I can confirm this.

I think another way of looking at the Aldon Smith draft position is that Baalke/Harbaugh also thought that picking Smith at #7 was not the best value. If they could have traded back and still picked Smith then we might have had a better picture of what they thought would be the best place for Smith. So if they could have fallen back to #10 and still picked Smith then our discussion would have been different, and we would have had another pick to work with.

I also liked the fact that Baalke was willing to trade and move around on the board. I also thought they had a pretty good feel for whom they wanted to draft and where they wanted to draft that person, CK being a case in point as well as Kilgore. So with that in mind it appears that if the Stanford fullback had fallen to them they might have picked him but if they had to invest draft picks he was not "that" high on their list.

So I enjoyed the draft, and can't wait until training camp to see what the coaches can make out of this haul of raw material.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I dont buy into combine numbers, the combine is a idiotic method of evaluating.

Id rather look at game tape and see what he did, not if he ran a poor 40, or whatever.

Just stupid IMO.

While some combine numbers may be overemphasized by fans, the combine does have a purpose, in putting athletes side by side in a controlled setting to see their overall athleticism side by side (speed, explosiveness, strength, change of direction abilities). I do agree that some of the combine events should be altered (the start to the 40 is silly to me), but it does serve a purpose. I haven't even gone into the medical evals and the interviews, which are gigantic.

Overemphasized events include the forty, QB's throwing the ball, WR's running routes. Underemphasized: shuttle and cone times, which really show change of direction abilities.

Overall, I am a supporter of the combine as one major piece of the puzzle. It is surely not the most important element, but is critical.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I dont buy into combine numbers, the combine is a idiotic method of evaluating.

Id rather look at game tape and see what he did, not if he ran a poor 40, or whatever.

Just stupid IMO.

While some combine numbers may be overemphasized by fans, the combine does have a purpose, in putting athletes side by side in a controlled setting to see their overall athleticism side by side (speed, explosiveness, strength, change of direction abilities). I do agree that some of the combine events should be altered (the start to the 40 is silly to me), but it does serve a purpose. I haven't even gone into the medical evals and the interviews, which are gigantic.

Overemphasized events include the forty, QB's throwing the ball, WR's running routes. Underemphasized: shuttle and cone times, which really show change of direction abilities.

Overall, I am a supporter of the combine as one major piece of the puzzle. It is surely not the most important element, but is critical.

They need to do the combine in full pads and helmet. It's surprising how that little bit of extra slows some players down and ruins their vision while it won't phase others.

BTW, MD, how does Kaepernick compare to Tebow coming out of the draft? Didn't Denver trade up for Tebow?
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I dont buy into combine numbers, the combine is a idiotic method of evaluating.

Id rather look at game tape and see what he did, not if he ran a poor 40, or whatever.

Just stupid IMO.

While some combine numbers may be overemphasized by fans, the combine does have a purpose, in putting athletes side by side in a controlled setting to see their overall athleticism side by side (speed, explosiveness, strength, change of direction abilities). I do agree that some of the combine events should be altered (the start to the 40 is silly to me), but it does serve a purpose. I haven't even gone into the medical evals and the interviews, which are gigantic.

Overemphasized events include the forty, QB's throwing the ball, WR's running routes. Underemphasized: shuttle and cone times, which really show change of direction abilities.

Overall, I am a supporter of the combine as one major piece of the puzzle. It is surely not the most important element, but is critical.

They need to do the combine in full pads and helmet. It's surprising how that little bit of extra slows some players down and ruins their vision while it won't phase others.

BTW, MD, how does Kaepernick compare to Tebow coming out of the draft? Didn't Denver trade up for Tebow?

I agree that helmet and pads would be a nice addition to the combine.

I think that Kaepernick is a much better NFL QB prospect than Tebow. Kaepernick has a stronger arm, is a better overall athlete, and is suited for QB. I don't think Tebow is an NFL QB at all. He would be best as an H-back. And, yes, the Broncos traded up for Tebow. Then, they make the mistake this year of drafting a 4-3 OLB in Miller, who is a terrific talent, but not best suited for a 4-3. The pick was Dareus.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 10, 2011 at 18:32:34 ]
hey MD

what do you think of the culliver pick

what are his strengths and weaknesses

also do you think he was drafted to be a FS or a CB