Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:Originally posted by oldninerdude:Originally posted by MadDog49er:Originally posted by Wodwo:Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I never stated Smith was unathletic. I stated that for the 7th overall, you really want an elite athlete. And, the numbers show, to me, that he is a solid straightline rusher, but doesn't have the elite physical skills to be worthy of the 7th overall. I want a guy who has violent hands, but also a guy who can bend, a guy who has shown that he can effectively and consistently beat the LT's he will face in the NFL. Guys who are one-trick ponies just can't cut it in the NFL.
A couple of years ago, I was really high on Brian Orakpo. I saw a complete player, a man, not a developmental player, enter the league. That is the value I want from a pash rusher, someone who is not a project, but a guy who can compete at a very high level from Day One, and has shown that he can beat a blocker in a wide variety of ways.
I just don't see that from Aldon Smith right now, and while he may be able to develop those skills, the risk is too high for the 7th overall, in this position on the field. He is raw, like sushi, and we have gambled big on him.
Manny Lawson sure looked like an elite athlete. How has that worked out?
You really seem to have failed in your evaluation here. Maybe you only watched him play after he broke his leg or something....
Honestly, I just don't know what to tell you if you think he's a "one trick pony". You're just wrong, plain and simple.
I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you after this post.
My arguments have been made for me.
A fair question on Manny. The issue with Manny is that he was a tall, lanky, 245 pound player coming out of college, and has never been a good fit as a 3-4 rush backer. He was a one-trick pony, beat the guy to the edge. When the team shifted to a 4-3 early in his career, due to injuries, he played his best. He would be an exceptional Tampa-2 OLB. So, to me, Manny is simply in the wrong system.
I think you are missing the point. Simply being an elite athlete does not automatically qualify someone for a top level pick. In my thinking, they should be a rare athlete ( Smith's mid 4.7 time is not outstanding, it is a little better than average; his change of direction numbers are very average; and he doesn't show elite strength or explosiveness measureables), experienced (Smith has played less than two years of college football), and someone who shows a wide variety of moves to get to the QB at the OLB position. Right now, his best move is whacking an off-balance interior lineman and going around him. A large number of his sacks came in passing downs, when put inside as a DT to rush against lumbering college guards. He is not going to be in that set in the NFL. I don't see him consistently beating LT's on tape, and that is something to be slightly concerned about, especially when using the 7th overall.
I think people continue to miss the most important point, and I will state it once again. I am not saying Smith is a bad football player, or a player who will be a poor NFL player. I have already stated that he was the best OLB on my board when the Niners were on the clock. What I am saying is that he is a risky, developmental guy, who is much better value as a mid-late first rounder. The issue is the 7th overall selection. That is why I graded the pick as a C, not an F, like I did last year with the Taylor Mays selection.
In the draft, the goal is to optimize the value of each selection. If the team had selected Colin Kaepernick at 7, the board would be furious. Are they furious that he was selected by us in the second round? No. It is largely celebrated. So, it comes down to getting the most value for your pick. And, to me, Smith is a tremendous risk at 7, especially for a team that needs to start hitting on its' picks.
Finally, you appear very emotional about my criticism. That is unnecessary. It is OK to disagree.
You list your reasons for your opinion. But they cause you more than a little difficulty.
You initially stated that you do not believe Aldon Smith to be an "elite" athlete, based on your review of his combine numbers. However, his tape and his history, together with his measurables, and even a review of the very same combine numbers you rely on, appear to undermine your position. (You say his "mid 4.7 time is not outstanding; its a little better than averge"--making it, technically, "elite.") Hence your backpedalling from the "he's not an elite athlete" statement.
He can do a standing backflip, at 6'4" and 260 lbs! If you don't think that makes him "elite," go out to your front lawn and try it yourself. (Be sure to get someone to video and post it for us all to see.) Plus Aldon's got a 40" vertical! He's got a 7"2" wingspan!
The tape I've seen on the guy shows someone who can rush on the edge--per Warren Sapp, watching the same clip, he's got a "dip" move that comes naturally, you just can't teach it. (See Manny Lawson, six years later and he's never learned that same move.) He also has natural strength and quickness that enables him to move inside and rush effectively.
Which brings us to the essence of your opinion: he's not a bad athlete, or a bad football player, you just don't think he's worth the 7th pick overall.
No one may know the answer to that question for awhile. But based on his elite athletic ability, the numbers he put up in college, his proven toughness, his good character, and his vast potential, I have to disagree with you on this one. I believe he was well worth the 7th. At a position of need for the Niners as well.
Ask yourself, would Justin Smith have been worth the 7th pick overall this year? Clearly he would have been, or much higher. Well, we got a guy at #7 who broke Justin's sack record at Missouri. As a freshman!
Looking forward to seeing that video of you doing a standing backflip! Better wear a helmet! And don't cheat and use a trampoline, that wouldn't be fair.
What he said!
Oh and MD what team did you work for and how many drafts have you done for NFL Teams? Gil Brandt in his draft evaluations had Smith as a Top 10 Draftee, East Coast Sporting News had him at 11 and possibly moving into the top 10! Brandt said he is Secretariat and the rest are plough horses(his words on Sirus Radio's NFL Channel, not mine)! When one of the other draftees was asked(it might have been Bowers, not sure) who the best DE in the draft was after him. He said Aldon Smith without a doubt, the toughest player he's ever seen, and he said I would never say that he's not as good as me!
So the EXPERTS think this kid is a good solid player witha great upside that was not a reach at 7! So again MD what clubs did you work for in player personnel and what drafts were you involved in at the pro level? Oh and I can't wait to see the video of you doing that backflip, just be sure you have the Paramedics standing by with their C-Spine collars!
To poster #1 - Aldon did not have a 40-inch vertical. He had a 34-inch vertical. To put it into perspective, the 290 pound J.J. Watt had a 37-inch vertical. His combine 40 time was, as mentioned 4.78. Putting that also into perspective, 7th rounder Zach Clayton ran a 4.79 at 300 pounds, 3rd rounder Allen Bailey ran a 4.77 at 285 pounds, and Cameron Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. Above average doesn't necessarily = elite. I would say the scale rangers from Poor -- Average -- Good -- Elite, something like that. Obviously measurables aren't everything though, and we'll see if Aldon's on-the-field play outshines his workout numbers.
To poster #2 - That's not exactly true. Not all of the experts labeled this a non-reach. In fact, several did. I'm not arguing either way, but just throwing this out there because I did see a few -- including McShay -- calling at least "a slight reach."
The thing here is, although he was slated to go high, the point being made by MD is that to some his value really was not as high as his predicted draft position, so you could even call it slight inflationary value, because it was his value as a player in comparison to the value of someone typically picked at that spot that I believe MD is referring to there. Many, many players are like this. Good players, but not elite players, overdrafted because of either no other options or someone else would've taken them pretty soon after, or both.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on May 7, 2011 at 13:08:44 ]