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MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Wodwo:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I never stated Smith was unathletic. I stated that for the 7th overall, you really want an elite athlete. And, the numbers show, to me, that he is a solid straightline rusher, but doesn't have the elite physical skills to be worthy of the 7th overall. I want a guy who has violent hands, but also a guy who can bend, a guy who has shown that he can effectively and consistently beat the LT's he will face in the NFL. Guys who are one-trick ponies just can't cut it in the NFL.

A couple of years ago, I was really high on Brian Orakpo. I saw a complete player, a man, not a developmental player, enter the league. That is the value I want from a pash rusher, someone who is not a project, but a guy who can compete at a very high level from Day One, and has shown that he can beat a blocker in a wide variety of ways.

I just don't see that from Aldon Smith right now, and while he may be able to develop those skills, the risk is too high for the 7th overall, in this position on the field. He is raw, like sushi, and we have gambled big on him.

Manny Lawson sure looked like an elite athlete. How has that worked out?

You really seem to have failed in your evaluation here. Maybe you only watched him play after he broke his leg or something....

Honestly, I just don't know what to tell you if you think he's a "one trick pony". You're just wrong, plain and simple.

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you after this post.

My arguments have been made for me.

A fair question on Manny. The issue with Manny is that he was a tall, lanky, 245 pound player coming out of college, and has never been a good fit as a 3-4 rush backer. He was a one-trick pony, beat the guy to the edge. When the team shifted to a 4-3 early in his career, due to injuries, he played his best. He would be an exceptional Tampa-2 OLB. So, to me, Manny is simply in the wrong system.

I think you are missing the point. Simply being an elite athlete does not automatically qualify someone for a top level pick. In my thinking, they should be a rare athlete ( Smith's mid 4.7 time is not outstanding, it is a little better than average; his change of direction numbers are very average; and he doesn't show elite strength or explosiveness measureables), experienced (Smith has played less than two years of college football), and someone who shows a wide variety of moves to get to the QB at the OLB position. Right now, his best move is whacking an off-balance interior lineman and going around him. A large number of his sacks came in passing downs, when put inside as a DT to rush against lumbering college guards. He is not going to be in that set in the NFL. I don't see him consistently beating LT's on tape, and that is something to be slightly concerned about, especially when using the 7th overall.

I think people continue to miss the most important point, and I will state it once again. I am not saying Smith is a bad football player, or a player who will be a poor NFL player. I have already stated that he was the best OLB on my board when the Niners were on the clock. What I am saying is that he is a risky, developmental guy, who is much better value as a mid-late first rounder. The issue is the 7th overall selection. That is why I graded the pick as a C, not an F, like I did last year with the Taylor Mays selection.

In the draft, the goal is to optimize the value of each selection. If the team had selected Colin Kaepernick at 7, the board would be furious. Are they furious that he was selected by us in the second round? No. It is largely celebrated. So, it comes down to getting the most value for your pick. And, to me, Smith is a tremendous risk at 7, especially for a team that needs to start hitting on its' picks.

Finally, you appear very emotional about my criticism. That is unnecessary. It is OK to disagree.

You list your reasons for your opinion. But they cause you more than a little difficulty.

You initially stated that you do not believe Aldon Smith to be an "elite" athlete, based on your review of his combine numbers. However, his tape and his history, together with his measurables, and even a review of the very same combine numbers you rely on, appear to undermine your position. (You say his "mid 4.7 time is not outstanding; its a little better than averge"--making it, technically, "elite.") Hence your backpedalling from the "he's not an elite athlete" statement.

He can do a standing backflip, at 6'4" and 260 lbs! If you don't think that makes him "elite," go out to your front lawn and try it yourself. (Be sure to get someone to video and post it for us all to see.) Plus Aldon's got a 40" vertical! He's got a 7"2" wingspan!

The tape I've seen on the guy shows someone who can rush on the edge--per Warren Sapp, watching the same clip, he's got a "dip" move that comes naturally, you just can't teach it. (See Manny Lawson, six years later and he's never learned that same move.) He also has natural strength and quickness that enables him to move inside and rush effectively.

Which brings us to the essence of your opinion: he's not a bad athlete, or a bad football player, you just don't think he's worth the 7th pick overall.

No one may know the answer to that question for awhile. But based on his elite athletic ability, the numbers he put up in college, his proven toughness, his good character, and his vast potential, I have to disagree with you on this one. I believe he was well worth the 7th. At a position of need for the Niners as well.

Ask yourself, would Justin Smith have been worth the 7th pick overall this year? Clearly he would have been, or much higher. Well, we got a guy at #7 who broke Justin's sack record at Missouri. As a freshman!

Looking forward to seeing that video of you doing a standing backflip! Better wear a helmet! And don't cheat and use a trampoline, that wouldn't be fair.

Go Niners!

What he said!
Oh and MD what team did you work for and how many drafts have you done for NFL Teams? Gil Brandt in his draft evaluations had Smith as a Top 10 Draftee, East Coast Sporting News had him at 11 and possibly moving into the top 10! Brandt said he is Secretariat and the rest are plough horses(his words on Sirus Radio's NFL Channel, not mine)! When one of the other draftees was asked(it might have been Bowers, not sure) who the best DE in the draft was after him. He said Aldon Smith without a doubt, the toughest player he's ever seen, and he said I would never say that he's not as good as me!
So the EXPERTS think this kid is a good solid player witha great upside that was not a reach at 7! So again MD what clubs did you work for in player personnel and what drafts were you involved in at the pro level? Oh and I can't wait to see the video of you doing that backflip, just be sure you have the Paramedics standing by with their C-Spine collars!

To poster #1 - Aldon did not have a 40-inch vertical. He had a 34-inch vertical. To put it into perspective, the 290 pound J.J. Watt had a 37-inch vertical. His combine 40 time was, as mentioned 4.78. Putting that also into perspective, 7th rounder Zach Clayton ran a 4.79 at 300 pounds, 3rd rounder Allen Bailey ran a 4.77 at 285 pounds, and Cameron Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. Above average doesn't necessarily = elite. I would say the scale rangers from Poor -- Average -- Good -- Elite, something like that. Obviously measurables aren't everything though, and we'll see if Aldon's on-the-field play outshines his workout numbers.

To poster #2 - That's not exactly true. Not all of the experts labeled this a non-reach. In fact, several did. I'm not arguing either way, but just throwing this out there because I did see a few -- including McShay -- calling at least "a slight reach."

The thing here is, although he was slated to go high, the point being made by MD is that to some his value really was not as high as his predicted draft position, so you could even call it slight inflationary value, because it was his value as a player in comparison to the value of someone typically picked at that spot that I believe MD is referring to there. Many, many players are like this. Good players, but not elite players, overdrafted because of either no other options or someone else would've taken them pretty soon after, or both.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on May 7, 2011 at 13:08:44 ]
  • ttime
  • Member
  • Posts: 158
I have been critical of MD in the past, but I also recognize that he spends a great deal of time and effort in forming his opinion and I appreciate his perspectives and his contributions. Given the amount of time and effort that he puts into this, I respect his right to give anyone any grade that he sees fit. Does that mean that I agree with him? Nooooooooo.

One area that I believe that he does not consider very well is a player's intuitive ability to simply play the game. I don't think that Reggie White was considered to be a superb athlete and don't know if MD would have considered him as an A+ draftee; for instance. But, when I look at Smith I see some Reggie White qualities; an ability to manhandle the OL man, play multiple positions and to simply get to the QB. I think that the staff considered all of this and anyone who limits his/hers assessment by strictly considering Smith as an OLB or based on his athletic measurable may be a bit short sighted here. Some players are simply good football players no matter how they measure out.
I think being an elite athlete sometimes causes teams to overvalue a prospect. If being a workout warrior meant automatic NFL success, then Vernon Gholston and Troy Williamson would be all-pro every year. Every year players who were the combine champions disappoint on the football field because of their lack of instinct, while their not quite as athletically gifted teammates who were picked later make all-pro. Granted, a good football player with elite athletic ability will only make him better, but what if he's not that good a good football player? I think some teams overlook that.
Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
I think being an elite athlete sometimes causes teams to overvalue a prospect. If being a workout warrior meant automatic NFL success, then Vernon Gholston and Troy Williamson would be all-pro every year. Every year players who were the combine champions disappoint on the football field because of their lack of instinct, while their not quite as athletically gifted teammates who were picked later make all-pro. Granted, a good football player with elite athletic ability will only make him better, but what if he's not that good a good football player? I think some teams overlook that.

Eventually we'll see if Aldon's workout numbers are under-representative of his play or not, because as many have stated, the measurables aren't everything. Not that they have zero importance, but they don't tell the whole story.

It remains to be seen how good of an NFL football player Aldon will be, but it is understandable the questions that surface when looking at comparisons between him and the other arguably more athletic individuals of this class.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on May 7, 2011 at 13:53:15 ]
  • Wodwo
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,104
Originally posted by OnTheClock:

To poster #1 - Aldon did not have a 40-inch vertical. He had a 34-inch vertical. To put it into perspective, the 290 pound J.J. Watt had a 37-inch vertical. His combine 40 time was, as mentioned 4.78. Putting that also into perspective, 7th rounder Zach Clayton ran a 4.79 at 300 pounds, 3rd rounder Allen Bailey ran a 4.77 at 285 pounds, and Cameron Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. Above average doesn't necessarily = elite. I would say the scale rangers from Poor -- Average -- Good -- Elite, something like that. Obviously measurables aren't everything though, and we'll see if Aldon's on-the-field play outshines his workout numbers.

To poster #2 - That's not exactly true. Not all of the experts labeled this a non-reach. In fact, several did. I'm not arguing either way, but just throwing this out there because I did see a few -- including McShay -- calling at least "a slight reach."

The thing here is, although he was slated to go high, the point being made by MD is that to some his value really was not as high as his predicted draft position, so you could even call it slight inflationary value, because it was his value as a player in comparison to the value of someone typically picked at that spot that I believe MD is referring to there. Many, many players are like this. Good players, but not elite players, overdrafted because of either no other options or someone else would've taken them pretty soon after, or both.

Hehe... you guys keep forgetting a huge factor in Aldon's workout numbers. He broke his leg less than a year ago. Yes, he should be 100% healthy... meaning that the bone has healed completely. However, we all know (ok, fans that pay attention do) that when a player has a serious injury like Aldon's, they are unable to train as they normally would. Considering that he played three weeks after breaking his leg, I can only imagine that he rested it between games. This would cause him to lose conditioning. He was forced to work himself back into condition after the season to prepare for the combine, while also adding 10 lbs. to his frame in order to be considered draftable by 4-3 teams. If you've ever gained and lost weight rapidly (I have: 160 to 210 back to 160) you know that it effects your agility. You need to adjust to the weight difference because it alters your balance. So, please... try to consider all factors when comparing two individuals.

Also, what is a "reach"? Who decides the absolute value of every prospect in the draft? I can't believe I would have missed such an important reference material.

Seriously, though... he was considered a top 15 talent at worst by the vast majority of draftniks. If it was a reach, it was three or four picks. If that's considered a reach, then almost every pick in the draft is either a "reach" or a "steal". There is no absolute value assigned to these kids.

Personally, when we were "on the clock" (Heh.), I was hoping for Quinn or Aldon. I've been wanting a better pass rush for as long as I can remember now. Could we have drafted a player with better "value"? I don't think so... just look at how the picks fell after we selected. Teams who were considered to have a need passed on the players that we were projected to draft.

We're all entitled to our opinions, but that means I can respond to yours with my own, yeah? In the end, that's all it is. We're just sharing our opinions and they don't have to conform to any standard or rule. I don't claim to speak the "Absolute Truth".

I just think many members of this forum were lacking knowledge about Aldon as a prospect and that lead to an inevitable over-reaction. I'm just trying to set the record straight as best I can. This post wasn't really intended for those who had one their research.

Peace.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Wodwo:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I never stated Smith was unathletic. I stated that for the 7th overall, you really want an elite athlete. And, the numbers show, to me, that he is a solid straightline rusher, but doesn't have the elite physical skills to be worthy of the 7th overall. I want a guy who has violent hands, but also a guy who can bend, a guy who has shown that he can effectively and consistently beat the LT's he will face in the NFL. Guys who are one-trick ponies just can't cut it in the NFL.

A couple of years ago, I was really high on Brian Orakpo. I saw a complete player, a man, not a developmental player, enter the league. That is the value I want from a pash rusher, someone who is not a project, but a guy who can compete at a very high level from Day One, and has shown that he can beat a blocker in a wide variety of ways.

I just don't see that from Aldon Smith right now, and while he may be able to develop those skills, the risk is too high for the 7th overall, in this position on the field. He is raw, like sushi, and we have gambled big on him.

Manny Lawson sure looked like an elite athlete. How has that worked out?

You really seem to have failed in your evaluation here. Maybe you only watched him play after he broke his leg or something....

Honestly, I just don't know what to tell you if you think he's a "one trick pony". You're just wrong, plain and simple.

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you after this post.

My arguments have been made for me.

A fair question on Manny. The issue with Manny is that he was a tall, lanky, 245 pound player coming out of college, and has never been a good fit as a 3-4 rush backer. He was a one-trick pony, beat the guy to the edge. When the team shifted to a 4-3 early in his career, due to injuries, he played his best. He would be an exceptional Tampa-2 OLB. So, to me, Manny is simply in the wrong system.

I think you are missing the point. Simply being an elite athlete does not automatically qualify someone for a top level pick. In my thinking, they should be a rare athlete ( Smith's mid 4.7 time is not outstanding, it is a little better than average; his change of direction numbers are very average; and he doesn't show elite strength or explosiveness measureables), experienced (Smith has played less than two years of college football), and someone who shows a wide variety of moves to get to the QB at the OLB position. Right now, his best move is whacking an off-balance interior lineman and going around him. A large number of his sacks came in passing downs, when put inside as a DT to rush against lumbering college guards. He is not going to be in that set in the NFL. I don't see him consistently beating LT's on tape, and that is something to be slightly concerned about, especially when using the 7th overall.

I think people continue to miss the most important point, and I will state it once again. I am not saying Smith is a bad football player, or a player who will be a poor NFL player. I have already stated that he was the best OLB on my board when the Niners were on the clock. What I am saying is that he is a risky, developmental guy, who is much better value as a mid-late first rounder. The issue is the 7th overall selection. That is why I graded the pick as a C, not an F, like I did last year with the Taylor Mays selection.

In the draft, the goal is to optimize the value of each selection. If the team had selected Colin Kaepernick at 7, the board would be furious. Are they furious that he was selected by us in the second round? No. It is largely celebrated. So, it comes down to getting the most value for your pick. And, to me, Smith is a tremendous risk at 7, especially for a team that needs to start hitting on its' picks.

Finally, you appear very emotional about my criticism. That is unnecessary. It is OK to disagree.

You list your reasons for your opinion. But they cause you more than a little difficulty.

You initially stated that you do not believe Aldon Smith to be an "elite" athlete, based on your review of his combine numbers. However, his tape and his history, together with his measurables, and even a review of the very same combine numbers you rely on, appear to undermine your position. (You say his "mid 4.7 time is not outstanding; its a little better than averge"--making it, technically, "elite.") Hence your backpedalling from the "he's not an elite athlete" statement.

He can do a standing backflip, at 6'4" and 260 lbs! If you don't think that makes him "elite," go out to your front lawn and try it yourself. (Be sure to get someone to video and post it for us all to see.) Plus Aldon's got a 40" vertical! He's got a 7"2" wingspan!

The tape I've seen on the guy shows someone who can rush on the edge--per Warren Sapp, watching the same clip, he's got a "dip" move that comes naturally, you just can't teach it. (See Manny Lawson, six years later and he's never learned that same move.) He also has natural strength and quickness that enables him to move inside and rush effectively.

Which brings us to the essence of your opinion: he's not a bad athlete, or a bad football player, you just don't think he's worth the 7th pick overall.

No one may know the answer to that question for awhile. But based on his elite athletic ability, the numbers he put up in college, his proven toughness, his good character, and his vast potential, I have to disagree with you on this one. I believe he was well worth the 7th. At a position of need for the Niners as well.

Ask yourself, would Justin Smith have been worth the 7th pick overall this year? Clearly he would have been, or much higher. Well, we got a guy at #7 who broke Justin's sack record at Missouri. As a freshman!

Looking forward to seeing that video of you doing a standing backflip! Better wear a helmet! And don't cheat and use a trampoline, that wouldn't be fair.

Go Niners!

What he said!
Oh and MD what team did you work for and how many drafts have you done for NFL Teams? Gil Brandt in his draft evaluations had Smith as a Top 10 Draftee, East Coast Sporting News had him at 11 and possibly moving into the top 10! Brandt said he is Secretariat and the rest are plough horses(his words on Sirus Radio's NFL Channel, not mine)! When one of the other draftees was asked(it might have been Bowers, not sure) who the best DE in the draft was after him. He said Aldon Smith without a doubt, the toughest player he's ever seen, and he said I would never say that he's not as good as me!
So the EXPERTS think this kid is a good solid player witha great upside that was not a reach at 7! So again MD what clubs did you work for in player personnel and what drafts were you involved in at the pro level? Oh and I can't wait to see the video of you doing that backflip, just be sure you have the Paramedics standing by with their C-Spine collars!

To poster #1 - Aldon did not have a 40-inch vertical. He had a 34-inch vertical. To put it into perspective, the 290 pound J.J. Watt had a 37-inch vertical. His combine 40 time was, as mentioned 4.78. Putting that also into perspective, 7th rounder Zach Clayton ran a 4.79 at 300 pounds, 3rd rounder Allen Bailey ran a 4.77 at 285 pounds, and Cameron Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. Above average doesn't necessarily = elite. I would say the scale rangers from Poor -- Average -- Good -- Elite, something like that. Obviously measurables aren't everything though, and we'll see if Aldon's on-the-field play outshines his workout numbers.

To poster #2 - That's not exactly true. Not all of the experts labeled this a non-reach. In fact, several did. I'm not arguing either way, but just throwing this out there because I did see a few -- including McShay -- calling at least "a slight reach."

The thing here is, although he was slated to go high, the point being made by MD is that to some his value really was not as high as his predicted draft position, so you could even call it slight inflationary value, because it was his value as a player in comparison to the value of someone typically picked at that spot that I believe MD is referring to there. Many, many players are like this. Good players, but not elite players, overdrafted because of either no other options or someone else would've taken them pretty soon after, or both.

Sorry, Poster #3, but I was going off the numbers in the link in Wodwo's post above, which says that Aldon can jump 40 inches. Apparently his combine number was less--perhaps he had not yet returned to his previous form following his broken leg.

Fact is that there were any number of "reaches" in this year's draft--a sign of its overall weakness. Cam Newton at #1 was probably a reach.

But to say that Aldon Smith was a reach, or even a "slight reach" at #7 because he's not an "elite" athlete??? Sorry, I disagree with the premise, tho I don't really care all that much about the conclusion.

The "experts" can say that the Niner's reached all they want, and that their draft sucked overall. Those are their opinions; they're entitled to 'em; and they can have 'em. Don't believe I have to blindly accept any of them, though, and I think I see something more, both in Aldon Smith and in the Niner's draft this year.

Aldon Smith is an elite athlete, with outstanding measurables and a record setting career at Missouri. He looks like a natural, versatile pass rusher, and a potentially outstanding fit at OLB in the 3-4.

But he was a "slight reach" according to some talking head, so let's all bad mouth him and regret the pick--before he even plays a game.

Please.

He got more respect from Marcel Dareus (what a jerk) on "Game Changers."

Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

Go Niners.

[ Edited by oldninerdude on May 7, 2011 at 15:09:50 ]
Originally posted by Wodwo:

Hehe... you guys keep forgetting a huge factor in Aldon's workout numbers. He broke his leg less than a year ago. Yes, he should be 100% healthy... meaning that the bone has healed completely. However, we all know (ok, fans that pay attention do) that when a player has a serious injury like Aldon's, they are unable to train as they normally would. Considering that he played three weeks after breaking his leg, I can only imagine that he rested it between games. This would cause him to lose conditioning. He was forced to work himself back into condition after the season to prepare for the combine, while also adding 10 lbs. to his frame in order to be considered draftable by 4-3 teams. If you've ever gained and lost weight rapidly (I have: 160 to 210 back to 160) you know that it effects your agility. You need to adjust to the weight difference because it alters your balance. So, please... try to consider all factors when comparing two individuals.

Also, what is a "reach"? Who decides the absolute value of every prospect in the draft? I can't believe I would have missed such an important reference material.

Seriously, though... he was considered a top 15 talent at worst by the vast majority of draftniks. If it was a reach, it was three or four picks. If that's considered a reach, then almost every pick in the draft is either a "reach" or a "steal". There is no absolute value assigned to these kids.

Personally, when we were "on the clock" (Heh.), I was hoping for Quinn or Aldon. I've been wanting a better pass rush for as long as I can remember now. Could we have drafted a player with better "value"? I don't think so... just look at how the picks fell after we selected. Teams who were considered to have a need passed on the players that we were projected to draft.

We're all entitled to our opinions, but that means I can respond to yours with my own, yeah? In the end, that's all it is. We're just sharing our opinions and they don't have to conform to any standard or rule. I don't claim to speak the "Absolute Truth".

I just think many members of this forum were lacking knowledge about Aldon as a prospect and that lead to an inevitable over-reaction. I'm just trying to set the record straight as best I can. This post wasn't really intended for those who had one their research.

Peace.
Very well said. Thank you.
Originally posted by Wodwo:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:

To poster #1 - Aldon did not have a 40-inch vertical. He had a 34-inch vertical. To put it into perspective, the 290 pound J.J. Watt had a 37-inch vertical. His combine 40 time was, as mentioned 4.78. Putting that also into perspective, 7th rounder Zach Clayton ran a 4.79 at 300 pounds, 3rd rounder Allen Bailey ran a 4.77 at 285 pounds, and Cameron Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. Above average doesn't necessarily = elite. I would say the scale rangers from Poor -- Average -- Good -- Elite, something like that. Obviously measurables aren't everything though, and we'll see if Aldon's on-the-field play outshines his workout numbers.

To poster #2 - That's not exactly true. Not all of the experts labeled this a non-reach. In fact, several did. I'm not arguing either way, but just throwing this out there because I did see a few -- including McShay -- calling at least "a slight reach."

The thing here is, although he was slated to go high, the point being made by MD is that to some his value really was not as high as his predicted draft position, so you could even call it slight inflationary value, because it was his value as a player in comparison to the value of someone typically picked at that spot that I believe MD is referring to there. Many, many players are like this. Good players, but not elite players, overdrafted because of either no other options or someone else would've taken them pretty soon after, or both.

Hehe... you guys keep forgetting a huge factor in Aldon's workout numbers. He broke his leg less than a year ago. Yes, he should be 100% healthy... meaning that the bone has healed completely. However, we all know (ok, fans that pay attention do) that when a player has a serious injury like Aldon's, they are unable to train as they normally would. Considering that he played three weeks after breaking his leg, I can only imagine that he rested it between games. This would cause him to lose conditioning. He was forced to work himself back into condition after the season to prepare for the combine, while also adding 10 lbs. to his frame in order to be considered draftable by 4-3 teams. If you've ever gained and lost weight rapidly (I have: 160 to 210 back to 160) you know that it effects your agility. You need to adjust to the weight difference because it alters your balance. So, please... try to consider all factors when comparing two individuals.

Also, what is a "reach"? Who decides the absolute value of every prospect in the draft? I can't believe I would have missed such an important reference material.

Seriously, though... he was considered a top 15 talent at worst by the vast majority of draftniks. If it was a reach, it was three or four picks. If that's considered a reach, then almost every pick in the draft is either a "reach" or a "steal". There is no absolute value assigned to these kids.

Personally, when we were "on the clock" (Heh.), I was hoping for Quinn or Aldon. I've been wanting a better pass rush for as long as I can remember now. Could we have drafted a player with better "value"? I don't think so... just look at how the picks fell after we selected. Teams who were considered to have a need passed on the players that we were projected to draft.

We're all entitled to our opinions, but that means I can respond to yours with my own, yeah? In the end, that's all it is. We're just sharing our opinions and they don't have to conform to any standard or rule. I don't claim to speak the "Absolute Truth".

I just think many members of this forum were lacking knowledge about Aldon as a prospect and that lead to an inevitable over-reaction. I'm just trying to set the record straight as best I can. This post wasn't really intended for those who had one their research.

Peace.

Hey, both Quinn and Smith came with different risks. Some could argue Quinn would be an even riskier pick for that matter.

There's no question Aldon Smith is a talented young man with loads of potential. Potential was a huge factor in this draft, according to Baalke. This explains the selection (and many of our other picks) fairly well.

My personal opinion? I wasn't a big fan of Aldon Smith because I saw a guy who was incredibly raw, with a lot of things he'd need to learn, but at the same time a player who did have a lot of talent.

We can all agree that the pick filled a need, and hopefully he develops into the monster we hope he will be. I am hoping obviously that Aldon can answer all the questions I had regarding him, and turn into a player well worth the spot where we picked him.

So here's to waiting to see how it all pans out in the end. Cheers, fellas.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Hey, both Quinn and Smith came with different risks. Some could argue Quinn would be an even riskier pick for that matter.

There's no question Aldon Smith is a talented young man with loads of potential. Potential was a huge factor in this draft, according to Baalke. This explains the selection (and many of our other picks) fairly well.

My personal opinion? I wasn't a big fan of Aldon Smith because I saw a guy who was incredibly raw, with a lot of things he'd need to learn, but at the same time a player who did have a lot of talent.

We can all agree that the pick filled a need, and hopefully he develops into the monster we hope he will be. I am hoping obviously that Aldon can answer all the questions I had regarding him, and turn into a player well worth the spot where we picked him.

So here's to waiting to see how it all pans out in the end. Cheers, fellas.

Well said, and I agree.

We're all Niner fans, and irrespective of our opinions about the relative "value" of any one pick, we are all hoping for the success of the team and for each of its players.

Go Niners!
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 7, 2011 at 20:01:18 ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
OTC pretty much articulated, in a better way, much of my sentiments. Thanks.

I will add that whenever the Niners select a player, they suddenly become so much more talented than if another team selected them. Anyone skeptical can view the thread on which QB will be most successful in the draft....take a wild guess who is the runaway winner.

Aldon Smith was barely mentioned by any fan on this board, prior to the draft, and when the selection was made, the vast majority of fans were angry (99.9% of the OLB pre-draft chatter was centered on Quinn, not Smith). Suddenly, over the last week, he has become a star, and people will defend him as if he was their mother (I am not referring to any particular poster on this thread). I guess it is a natural reaction to think: "he is one of us, so he is better than one of you".

If you wanted an OLB for the 7th overall, I think you have the best player at that position on the board, which I have stated repeatedly. I graded Smith overall Quinn and the rest of the OLB prospects, and projected him at 11 to the Texans, who have a strong need for a 3-4 OLB. I just don't see the best value for the pick, as Smith is risky, as both OTC and I have articulated.

You're right . . . OTC said it better.

Have you considered the fact that, since he was drafted, there has been much more media attention and focus on Aldon Smith than there was before. He didn't suddenly "become a star," we've just learned more about him.

Some of us even want to discuss what we've learned about him, and share articles and clips we've seen. Go figure.

You claim that you had him ranked ahead of Quinn at OLB before the draft. Funny, I don't recall seeing you post that anywhere before the draft. Your pre-draft "Big Board" lists Quinn at #10 and Aldon Smith at #11. So your OLB ranking had them flip flopped? Where is that posted, btw.

Or have you committed that heinous crime you accuse the rest of the board of committing--suddenly you're more of a fan of Aldon Smith than you were before the draft!

Tsk, tsk. You bandwagon hopping, overly optimistic . . . fan, you! lol.

[ Edited by oldninerdude on May 7, 2011 at 20:59:43 ]
I personally think Kaepernick has waaaay more potential than Dalton who is limited in his athletic ability and arm strength. When you have a great quarterback guru like Harbaugh, you go with potential every time.
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Originally posted by Draftology:
I personally think Kaepernick has waaaay more potential than Dalton who is limited in his athletic ability and arm strength. When you have a great quarterback guru like Harbaugh, you go with potential every time.

I agree with this and also would add if you're not getting your Qb in the first AND you have a Qb like Smith that's going to play better than most rookies anyways, then you might as well draft for potential. It's the right move. The risk is lower (being outside the first round) and the reward is higher.

To the grade given Aldon Smith by MadDog, I think he'll be a better pass rusher than anyone we got now so I gotta disagree with a C. Pass rushers have to be easier to grade than qb's. In this way, Aldon Smith can be considered a "safer" prospect than a qb. He's more likely to start sooner. There's some real benefits that should be counted in. I'm biased though, I didn't love any of the qb's this year and am happy with a pass rusher.
Originally posted by Draftology:
I personally think Kaepernick has waaaay more potential than Dalton who is limited in his athletic ability and arm strength. When you have a great quarterback guru like Harbaugh, you go with potential every time.

I can agree with this. Kap does have more potential considering his athletic tools. Both are smart QB's with a good head on their shoulders, but if CK reaches his full potential, he's going to be a scary good quarterback.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on May 8, 2011 at 11:46:04 ]
Originally posted by billbird2111:
Considering that MadDog had us winning the NFC West and going to the playoffs last season -- I consider his bad grades to be a Godsend.

Looks like Harbaugh and Baalke had a great draft after all.
Uhhhh...We ALL predicted the niners winning last year.