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MadDog's Final Wrap Up Grade for Niners

Originally posted by fryet:
MadDog, do you have your analysis from previous drafts? I would love to look back and compare.

I post a long review from every draft class on the Webzone. Not sure if it can be found in the archives (not sure if it is stored that long).

I can say from memory that last year I thought the Iupati pick was terrific (he was near the top of my best overall available board, and was at the top of my best available board when the team picked). As for Davis, I was not as high on the pick, although I thought he could become a valuable starter down the road. His 2010 season was bumpy.

As for Taylor Mays, I was most critical of this selection, as I believe he will struggle to cover players in the NFL. A better selection would have been the Packers' Morgan Burnett, who started for them before going down with injuries.

As for the third round, I did not like the selection of Navarro Bowman. I think he is best suited as a 4-3 outside backer, not a 3-4 Ted backer. He did not play well in 2010.

As for the fourth and fifth round, the team did not have selections.

I loved Anthony Dixon in the sixth and had him graded as an early 4th rounder. Great value and a solid year. Nate Byham was another sixth rounder. I wasn't terribly excited about the pick, as he was slated to be a 3rd tight end, used for blocking situations, but he was probably the best blocking TE's in the draft, so I wasn't upset with the selection. I did think Williams was a solid 6th rounder for his return ability alone. I had graded him as a 5th round prospect. Not sure if he is going to pan out.

Was not very pleased with the 7th round pick of Philip Adams. Thought Reggie Stephens of Iowa State was a better option as another interior lineman. Probably will be wrong on Adams, as he made the squad and was much better than I thought.

Overall, I pretty much hit on last year's picks, but it still way too early to say I was accurate.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 4, 2011 at 11:16:39 ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by jnew62:
Total fail. "Draft experts", what a joke. And why would you base your so called "skill" (used loosely, BELIEVE ME) on how many players you predicted to be drafted? All you clowns missed on 50 picks. That's damn near 20% of the entire draft. So you go out on a limb and predict that guys with 1st-4th round grades get drafted in a 7 round draft?? WOW, good job. I predict you all need to meet a girl and engage in sexual activity with her. Seriously. And that I would grade an A+++

Thanks for your kind thoughts. As for the subject at hand, it would appear that having 50 misses on players drafted sounds like a really bad year. However, if you take a look at the experts, who get paid for a living, nobody beat OTC (49 misses) and I this year (51 misses). It was the same the year before.

For example, Russ Lande of the Sporting News, had 68 players that were not drafted. Sideline Scouting had 62 missed players. Most of the professional experts had in the late 50's to mid-60's in players off their board. Once again, these are guys with inside information, professional contacts, and plenty of time and resources to make an accurate prediction of who will be selected. If you threw out a name of a player before the draft process, more than likely, OTC, and maybe myself, could give you the height/weight of the player, school attended, position in college, projected position in the NFL, combine time, Senior Bowl week grade, and particular team and system the player may play best under...all within a few seconds, without rummaging through the internet to find the info. Call it a sickness, call it insanity, but for us, it is fun.

The draft is a very humbling process, attempting to predict the round of each player selected, and who will be selected. It is a skill that takes time and energy, and is a sort of hobby for many. We simply take X-Box time and throw it to the street.

Once again, we thank you for your kind note.

Thanks for taking care of that, MD. Very well-written response. Knowing my fiery, opinionated self I chose not to respond lest I create a mudslinging fest. For those who partake in this sort of "hobby", all are well aware of its difficulty and amount of work required.

To consistently have such superior success to the "professionals" to me would be a clear indicator that one certainly may have a unique ability, or if you wish, a "skill".

Disagree if you like, but this is not some random guessing game.
Part of me has a problem with the draftniks too, if some NFL teams drop there entire scouting department and begs Mel and Todd to work for them, well that might add some credibility. But reminds me too often of "self-annoited" experts. Critiquing things you haven't ever done yourself. I had a marriage counselor that wasn't ever married (and she wasn't even heteoro) yet was an expert (and no not much help - I'm divorced now).
.....with that said the alternative is we all shut up and see how the draft picks are over time.

But, what is the fun in that?
MD OTC you guys gonna post a watch list for next year? IF there is no NFL we will all be watching a lot more college ball.
Originally posted by jreff22:
MD OTC you guys gonna post a watch list for next year? IF there is no NFL we will all be watching a lot more college ball.

Maybe closer to the start of the college season. We're resting now, man!
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by jreff22:
MD OTC you guys gonna post a watch list for next year? IF there is no NFL we will all be watching a lot more college ball.

Maybe closer to the start of the college season. We're resting now, man!

Santa doesn't get to rest, neither do you!!
nobody allowed you to rest ...................
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by jnew62:
Total fail. "Draft experts", what a joke. And why would you base your so called "skill" (used loosely, BELIEVE ME) on how many players you predicted to be drafted? All you clowns missed on 50 picks. That's damn near 20% of the entire draft. So you go out on a limb and predict that guys with 1st-4th round grades get drafted in a 7 round draft?? WOW, good job. I predict you all need to meet a girl and engage in sexual activity with her. Seriously. And that I would grade an A+++

Are you referring to the "pros," like Kiper, etc., or are you attacking and insulting MadDog and OTC? I'm unclear. Please advise.

NVM. It is clearly a personal attack.

You had it right at NVM. It wasn't a personal attack, more mocking of a so called "skill". But leave the warning, in the end it doesn't matter anyway. More of a refelection of the mod that gave it than me anyways. Have a nice day
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,895
There does seem to be a limit, as I did search for old articles started by MadDog. I was actually hoping to go even farther back. Basically all of the drafts of the Alex Smith era.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by jreff22:
MD OTC you guys gonna post a watch list for next year? IF there is no NFL we will all be watching a lot more college ball.

Maybe closer to the start of the college season. We're resting now, man!

Santa doesn't get to rest, neither do you!!

santa rests 364 days a year
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by Hitman49:
Keapernick > Dalton

I'd give that pick a B+
kaep seems to be the bigger project...the issue that should count in, if someone grades a pick, is "could we get the certain player at all?".
i heard that we needed a qb and we wanted to get dalton...but it seems like nobody wanted to draft for a normal price. so we went to the second-best. still better than nothing. job done.

No where in the post draft did I read we wanted Dalton, did the camera that was in the niners board room show them disappointed when he cam off the board-no. From all indications before and after the draft the niners wanted Kaep. They could have taken Gabbert, but Harbaugh didn't feel like Gabbert as the man. As far as evaluating talent, I'll side with Harbaugh over Maddog (no offense) and I am glad we didn't take him.

As for Smith, Smith played all over. Only straight line speed? Did you see the video where he ran down and caught Kaep himself on one play and batted down a Kaep pass on another (and Kaeps not a short QB). Athletic is not only about strength and speed, it is about instincts too. Strength? It doesn't apply doing a rip move, or hand thrust. Speed, technique, and leverage does. Haven't we learned that judging a player solely by combine numbers is futile? Give me quickness over speed. Smith has it!

I didn't see Harbaugh's reaction to the Dalton pick, but here is a possibility of his thoughts, based on what has happened in the past. After the Bengals selected Dalton at 36, the Niners quickly trade up to get Kaepernick at 37. Does this mean that he believed Kaepernick was going to go soon before the 45th pick? Or does it mean that the Niners only had two top QB's left on their board, and they were waiting for the first to be selected before making a move upward? Or does it mean that they hoped Dalton would fall to them, but then had to make a quick trade to secure the next QB on their board? We will probably never know.

What I said before the draft is that the Niners would be better off bypassing the QB position entirely until the mid-late rounds, and see if Harbaugh could make something work with Alex Smith. He already trusted Smith would be on the roster by preparing to hand him the playbook, so he was confident he would be on the team.

So, what happens if the still young, and still talented Alex Smith begins to develop? The tools are all there, better than any QB in this draft. It is matter of putting it all together, and having confidence in himself. What happens to Kaepernick if Smith does develop and move into the top 15 QB's in the league in 2011? He finished the season really well, and is slated to be the starter anyways.

To me, the Niners may have found best value in trading up to five and grabbing Peterson....if the Cards were willing to make that deal. Most teams do not mind trading down. It would have cost us a third rounder, and we would have secured the top CB in the draft at the most valuable position this team needs right now.

Can of worms!! I raise the question, what would you prefer, Patrick Peterson or Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver?

Knowing what we now know, the niners did try to trade up into the first round to get Colin, but luckily failed. They tried to trade with the Patriots, no go, it wasn't till the Broncos said okay. Because the niners heard that the Skins and Raiders were wanting Colin. So like any good anti Raider would do, Elway screwed his division rival by trading with us. This has been reported.

As to what if Alex developes? Like the saying goes "Chance favors the prepared mind." The opposite can be said, what if he doesn't develope? This is about getting what harbaugh wants to develope. Maybe he felt Stanzi or Mallet he could develope, but not to the level that he wants. Its not what others think of a college player, its about what fits your system. Also, Smith is not signed yet. However lets also go to the flip side, lets say he developes into more than a top 15, lets say top 12, I prefer a QB in the top 8 if we are to make a SB run, myself. Not only that, but the niners would get good value for compensatory pick if he should go elsewhere or we can sign him to a two year deal, if tweleve is his top ceiling and Harbaugh feels Colin is better than that, we can trade him like we hear about Kolb. Don't think it wouldn't happen either, look at what happened with Bledsoe, Montana. Not only that it would give Kaep time to develope. If we waited till next year that would really set us back. Besides you can never have enough talent.

Now as for Aldon Smith and Peterson. I will use the analogy Lawrence Taylor and Dieon (remember we don't know if either will be that dominating, but since we are into hypothosis), both have their merits, but I bet Walsh will tell you he had more headaches game planning for Taylor than Dieon. Don't think for a minute that Fangio will play Smith only on the SS LB position, he will move him all over to create match up problems and confusion.

Not only that to move up to the Bengals position would have cost us an arm and a leg-meaning we would not havee been able to get get Kaep, cause the cards would stupid to give us Peterson, a division rival. As for Culliver, we don't know yet if he will turn into a McKyer or Don Griffin, maybe even Merton Hanks. Remember this is a team game. Football is not like basketball where one player can boost a team to the top of the heap. Again all of it is subjective to not only talent but coaching.
Originally posted by dj43:
Too much of the success of this draft depends on Aldon Smith. With so many high value picks available at positions of need for the 49ers, if Smith turns out to be a first year starter and Pro Bowl-level guy in three years, he will have been a good pick. If not...

After that, Hunter is the most encouraging pick.

It seems there was little emphasis placed on getting high value. That emphasis gave this a frenetic feel.

Of course if Harbaugh and staff are the great teachers everyone here feels they are, they will coach these guys up quickly and MAYBE earn a playoff berth...but I am going to be very cautiously optimistic.

IMO, I dont think that was the purpose of this draft. We drafted a lot of raw talent from rounds 1-7. I think Harbaugh plans to field Sings 2010 team and figure out who's worth keeping. That's why this lockout could work to our advantage (2010 FA rules). Meanwhile, guys like Aldon, Kap and Culliver will get some spot duty. With that said, I think if any of our draft picks look worthy to start they will. I think we will slip into the playoffs, if we can sign a few of our FAs. 2011 is a 2010 redue.

[ Edited by Oakland-Niner on May 4, 2011 at 12:11:34 ]
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by Hitman49:
Keapernick > Dalton

I'd give that pick a B+
kaep seems to be the bigger project...the issue that should count in, if someone grades a pick, is "could we get the certain player at all?".
i heard that we needed a qb and we wanted to get dalton...but it seems like nobody wanted to draft for a normal price. so we went to the second-best. still better than nothing. job done.

No where in the post draft did I read we wanted Dalton, did the camera that was in the niners board room show them disappointed when he cam off the board-no. From all indications before and after the draft the niners wanted Kaep. They could have taken Gabbert, but Harbaugh didn't feel like Gabbert as the man. As far as evaluating talent, I'll side with Harbaugh over Maddog (no offense) and I am glad we didn't take him.

As for Smith, Smith played all over. Only straight line speed? Did you see the video where he ran down and caught Kaep himself on one play and batted down a Kaep pass on another (and Kaeps not a short QB). Athletic is not only about strength and speed, it is about instincts too. Strength? It doesn't apply doing a rip move, or hand thrust. Speed, technique, and leverage does. Haven't we learned that judging a player solely by combine numbers is futile? Give me quickness over speed. Smith has it!

I didn't see Harbaugh's reaction to the Dalton pick, but here is a possibility of his thoughts, based on what has happened in the past. After the Bengals selected Dalton at 36, the Niners quickly trade up to get Kaepernick at 37. Does this mean that he believed Kaepernick was going to go soon before the 45th pick? Or does it mean that the Niners only had two top QB's left on their board, and they were waiting for the first to be selected before making a move upward? Or does it mean that they hoped Dalton would fall to them, but then had to make a quick trade to secure the next QB on their board? We will probably never know.

What I said before the draft is that the Niners would be better off bypassing the QB position entirely until the mid-late rounds, and see if Harbaugh could make something work with Alex Smith. He already trusted Smith would be on the roster by preparing to hand him the playbook, so he was confident he would be on the team.

So, what happens if the still young, and still talented Alex Smith begins to develop? The tools are all there, better than any QB in this draft. It is matter of putting it all together, and having confidence in himself. What happens to Kaepernick if Smith does develop and move into the top 15 QB's in the league in 2011? He finished the season really well, and is slated to be the starter anyways.

To me, the Niners may have found best value in trading up to five and grabbing Peterson....if the Cards were willing to make that deal. Most teams do not mind trading down. It would have cost us a third rounder, and we would have secured the top CB in the draft at the most valuable position this team needs right now.

Can of worms!! I raise the question, what would you prefer, Patrick Peterson or Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver?

Knowing what we now know, the niners did try to trade up into the first round to get Colin, but luckily failed. They tried to trade with the Patriots, no go, it wasn't till the Broncos said okay. Because the niners heard that the Skins and Raiders were wanting Colin. So like any good anti Raider would do, Elway screwed his division rival by trading with us. This has been reported.

As to what if Alex developes? Like the saying goes "Chance favors the prepared mind." The opposite can be said, what if he doesn't develope? This is about getting what harbaugh wants to develope. Maybe he felt Stanzi or Mallet he could develope, but not to the level that he wants. Its not what others think of a college player, its about what fits your system. Also, Smith is not signed yet. However lets also go to the flip side, lets say he developes into more than a top 15, lets say top 12, I prefer a QB in the top 8 if we are to make a SB run, myself. Not only that, but the niners would get good value for compensatory pick if he should go elsewhere or we can sign him to a two year deal, if tweleve is his top ceiling and Harbaugh feels Colin is better than that, we can trade him like we hear about Kolb. Don't think it wouldn't happen either, look at what happened with Bledsoe, Montana. Not only that it would give Kaep time to develope. If we waited till next year that would really set us back. Besides you can never have enough talent.

Now as for Aldon Smith and Peterson. I will use the analogy Lawrence Taylor and Dieon (remember we don't know if either will be that dominating, but since we are into hypothosis), both have their merits, but I bet Walsh will tell you he had more headaches game planning for Taylor than Dieon. Don't think for a minute that Fangio will play Smith only on the SS LB position, he will move him all over to create match up problems and confusion.

Not only that to move up to the Bengals position would have cost us an arm and a leg-meaning we would not havee been able to get get Kaep, cause the cards would stupid to give us Peterson, a division rival. As for Culliver, we don't know yet if he will turn into a McKyer or Don Griffin, maybe even Merton Hanks. Remember this is a team game. Football is not like basketball where one player can boost a team to the top of the heap. Again all of it is subjective to not only talent but coaching.

I really enjoyed reading that....
Originally posted by jnew62:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by jnew62:
Total fail. "Draft experts", what a joke. And why would you base your so called "skill" (used loosely, BELIEVE ME) on how many players you predicted to be drafted? All you clowns missed on 50 picks. That's damn near 20% of the entire draft. So you go out on a limb and predict that guys with 1st-4th round grades get drafted in a 7 round draft?? WOW, good job. I predict you all need to meet a girl and engage in sexual activity with her. Seriously. And that I would grade an A+++

Are you referring to the "pros," like Kiper, etc., or are you attacking and insulting MadDog and OTC? I'm unclear. Please advise.

NVM. It is clearly a personal attack.

You had it right at NVM. It wasn't a personal attack, more mocking of a so called "skill". But leave the warning, in the end it doesn't matter anyway. More of a refelection of the mod that gave it than me anyways. Have a nice day

Your posts speak for themselves. If you have further issues, please PM me or the other mods to discuss them.