DeMarcus Ware vs Aldon Smith

Wow, this turned sideways and kinda heated fast

Well, I just wanted to add an additional argument into this, which I think is overlooked a bit, maybe that bring a bit of a fresh perspective: I find all the "amateur" draft evaluations we have on this board (especially MadDog) always very interesting and am impressed how deep those go year in and year out. But I think we all (including MadDog ) underestimate some of the unpublished factors that go into the draft evaluation and how those shape teams draft evaluations which in turn makes decisions look puzzling to us.

By that, I do not mean the medicals, although they play a vital role, as Da´Quan Bowers showed this year (btw in that regard, I have a lot of faith in the Niners staff evaluation. The last Niners draft prospects I can remember with big medical question marks turned out to be alright health-wise. Those would be Ray McDonald and that Frank Gore dude So if they were scared off from someone like Bowers or Robert Quinn, I will trust them in that regard).

I rather think about the personality fit, not only inside the locker room, but especially with the coaches themselves. I mean, all those interviews and private workouts are done in order to try to give coaches a feel for how the players are wired and whether they would fit with the coaches personality and teaching style. I think position coaches evaluations about that personality fit play a much bigger role in draft positions than we all might think. What made me think about that was all the media reports about how Kaepernick and Harbaugh hit it off almost immediately and also how they drafted one of the O-Lineman (I think it was Killgore) partly because he skyped with Solari for an hour or so and hit off well, too or the Ronald Johnson pick where our new WR coach had him in college for four years.

I think the opinions of the coaches whether they think they can work with a prospect and whether they fit with their teaching style is a tremendous factor in player evaluation, I believe and something we simply do not see from the outside. In my mind that would explain a lot of those draft-day decisions, where players rise or fall because the coaches either think they can work with them or do not want them on their team, regardless of other evaluation factors like film study.

I acknowledge that this is somewhat vague and unsatisfying especially for the draftniks, but I think this has a lot of merit and we can see with NFL veterans that a coach-player personality fit (or lack thereof) can have a tremendous impact. Think about the recent McNabb-Shanahan disaster which looked like a great fit on paper scheme- and talent-wise before it happened, or the Belichick-Adalius Thomas spat, which puzzled me greatly at first, because I thought this was a great fit as well.

Can this be misleading too and lead to wrong picks, especially since coaches will be projecting with draft prospects? I bet you it will. But coaches are human too and they want to draft guys who they think will listen to them and can be coached up by them. This part of the draft evaluation is something we outsiders do not see, but which we need to acknowledge more often and more rigorously, I think if only because they seem to regularly screw up MadDogs Big Board .

Speaking of which, one thing always makes me curious MadDog: You do such extensive work on the Draft and the evaluation afterwards. But although I like to see them here in the ´Zone, I think they kinda go to waste here a little bit because this is a Niner forum after all and lets face it, there a lot of fans here who are simply interested in who the Niners pick and thats about as far as their draft horizon goes (mine is not much better in that regard, I have to admit). Also, I loathe to say it, but a significant amount of us is simply...pretty dense

I would think your analysis would be much better suited to a generic draft site and I think you could do well in that space doing something on your own, especially since draft evaluation is kind of an industry right now, which should give you a tremendous opportunity. I would also think that clashing with homer fans gets kinda old after a few years, so I am actually curious why do you not do something like AB83Rules and do your own thing?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

Well, if we're gonna look at past drafts, then you have to consider that several years ago, you also had a guy named Adam Carriker valued as a better pick, a higher value at number 11, than the guy the Niners eventually took: a guy by the name of Willis? Patrick Willis? Remember him?

(BTW, how'd Carriker work out at St. Louis? Oh, that's right, he's no longer with them.)

So, yes, teams can miss. But so can amateurs.

And, unbelievably, Niner fans have been all over Willis as a great player ever since he was picked by the Niners. Can you believe that! Those incredibly stupid fans. Supporting Willis because he became a Niner. Tsk.

I can certainly understand your personal frustration over such homerism and fanaticism. Why, its almost as if this were a 49er board.

As for your grade of a C on the Aldon Smith pick, it just seems too harsh. The tape on the guy shows a natural pass rusher, with extraordinarily long arms. He broke Justin Smith's single season sack record at Mizzou as a freshman, and you must agree, Justin Smith is no slouch.

Downgrade the pick because the guy is somewhat of a risk? I can see that, but still think the grade should be a B, at least.

As you are forced to admit, Aldon Smith has huge upside potential. That factor makes it better than a C pick--a grade which should be reserved for a pick that reached for someone with a late first round value (20 plus) who does not have that "huge" upside, not someone picked at 7 that you last had ranked at 11.

C'mon now. (I know this won't happen.) Admit you are being too harsh and bump it up to a B-, at least.

Otherwise the kid gets grounded on the weekends and it ruins his GPA.

Must have struck a nerve.

Oh, boy, where do I begin. Let's start out with the "let's trot out the annual Adam Carriker" criticism. Of all the drafts, and all of the critique on each and every pick over the years, the only one trotted out is the Carriker selection. If that is the only one you can think of, then I guess I am pretty damn good at this whole thing.

You certainly have higher expectations for me than I have for myself. I promise in the future to be like every GM across the NFL, and hit on every first rounder, second rounder, third rounder. Because, as we know, teams never miss on any picks. Sorry to disappoint. I can itemize where I have been right and wrong over the years on Niners' picks, if you desire. Nobody is claiming perfection on this end.

As stated for the fourth consecutive year now, my rationale in the Willis/Carriker draft is that the team desperately needed both a 3-4 DE and a 3-4 middle linebacker. On my draft board, I had Adam Carriker far superior to any 3-4 DE in the draft, and had David Harris not that far behind Willis at middle linebacker. The thought was that the team could address both positions, with a superior DE and a very good linebacker, compared to a mediocre DE and a slightly better backer.

In the end, the Niners selected Willis and then traded back into the first for Staley. So, they never had a second round pick. Harris was still on the board when the Niners' original second rounder was on the clock. While Willis has been the superior player to Harris, Harris has ended up being a solid backer for the Jets. He was a second team All-Pro in 2009, voted the team MVP by Jets' teammates in 2010, has been franchised by the team to the tune of $10 million in 2011. He's not Willis, but he's not bad.

As for Carriker, he was not drafted by a 3-4 team, but by the Rams who ran a 4-3 team. Then, they asked him to stack on 15 more pounds onto his frame, and moved him not to the undertackle position, but to the Nose Guard position, which was so ridiculous that the Rams conceded later it was a poor decision. He was injured playing the NG in multiple years, and has never fully recovered from those injuries.

If Carriker was drafted by a 3-4 team, you could make a fair comparison of how this might have played out for the Niners. Because he never played the position until his knees were shot as a NG in a 4-3, it is really unfair to judge and compare. It is like asking us to judge if Frank Gore would have been a good selection at WR.

However, if it makes you feel better, I am willing to concede that anything paired with Willis would trump the combination of Carriker and Harris. I still think that Harris is pretty good, and my draft would be pretty special if Carriker had been allowed to play the 3-4 DE role.

For the record, I am not forced to admit anything about Aldon Smith, and I find your statements insulting, as I have always held these views about Smith, long before the pre-draft. In fact, outside of myself, OTC and a few others on this board, Smith was never mentioned. Now, he's become a cult hero for many on this board. While I hope he far exceeds my expectations, I am not simply going to go gaga on him just because the team picks him.

You would have to be obtuse to not notice how Niners' fans overgrade their selections. Do you honestly think Kaepernick would be the runaway winner for the best QB in this draft thread if the team had drafted Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, or Dalton?

If you are going to repetitiously pound me on the Carriker/Willis draft, would it be far too much to acknowledge that I have been scary correct on many of the Niners players selected over the years, including the great Chilo Rachal, Taylor Mays, Navarro Bowman, Cody Wallace, Jason Hill selections in the first few rounds. Are you celebrating their great accomplishments for this team, because I surely was not impressed with any of these selections, and was more than willing to declare my displeasure.

Finally, are you that upset in the difference between a B grade that you can envision for the Smith pick, and the C grade I gave?

Looking forward to doing this all over again in 2012. Thanks.

Mad, I think you're writing off Bowman and Mays too early.

My point is, give the guys a chance. I know you may not like them as prospects, but I get the feeling that you would rather be right and have our player bust than give the guy a chance to surprise you. I agree wholeheartedly that this board(myself included) usually evaluate our draft picks differently than those of other teams, but everyone does that. This isn't a science. There's no right answer. It's easy to make a case for selecting Aldon Smith at #7 and that's what most niners fans on here are doing. It's just as easy to make a case for Aldon being a reach at #7, which you are saying, which support your own rankings. I can see why you would argue Aldon being a reach at that point, but can you see the other side of the argument? I think Aldon was the BPA at #7. He has more value as an OLB than Watt does as a DE in our system. People say Aldon's a project only because of his age. He's got size, he's produced big time, he's a natural pass rusher. He's going to make an impact this year. That's great value at #7

I was not happy with the Mays and Bowman selection, but you are right. Their careers are far from over, and they both have a shot. As stated earlier, I'm not sure how Mays can overcome his problems of being stiff in coverage, and if Bowman can translate his game effectively to the Ted position. Bowman is an intriguing 4-3 OLB, but inside in the 3-4, I have always had serious concerns.

As for Smith, as stated numerous times, the kid was the top 3-4 OLB on my board, and has a huge upside. But, at seven, you simply don't want to miss, and Smith presents a high risk potential, in my estimation.

As for the importance of a 3-4 DE versus a 3-4 OLB, both positions are significant. I'm not sure you can say that a DeMarcus Ware n his prime carries more weight than a Richard Seymour in his prime. Disruptive players are disruptive players, and I see Watt as the guy who will cause offenses more headaches.

I love Watt too and had him rated higher than Aldon for most of the draft process, but I just see more upside with Smith. Why do you see Smith as a risky player? And I will concede a monster 34 DE can be equal to a monster 34 OLB in value to a team. I guess I see Smith as having a higher ceiling(which I don't think is far out of reach) but if I was a GM tasked with choosing between the two I'd be happy as a clam.

Originally posted by NoOffseason:
I acknowledge that this is somewhat vague and unsatisfying especially for the draftniks, but I think this has a lot of merit and we can see with NFL veterans that a coach-player personality fit (or lack thereof) can have a tremendous impact. Think about the recent McNabb-Shanahan disaster which looked like a great fit on paper scheme- and talent-wise before it happened, or the Belichick-Adalius Thomas spat, which puzzled me greatly at first, because I thought this was a great fit as well.

I agree with your premise, which is why I do not take the draft too seriously but enjoy it none the less. Quinn is a guy I just can't imagine failing at the next level, while Smith has an upright style that might allow him to be pushed around in the NFL. But, I know about as much as a rock compared to guys who make a living judging talent. Hope Baalke has hit a homer with this kid because the 9ers have needed an elite pass rusher for a very long time. If he can't be elite, I hope he can be a young version of J Smith-100% motor.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by jojomellon:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:


PS: Who knew Carriker played NG in a 4-3. Frankly, I didn't even know the 4-3 scheme had a NG.

Then you should probably stop talking football.

I always thought the NG ("Nose Guard") was the guy in the middle of the DL in a 3-4, w/ a DE on either side.

On the other hand, I thought the 4-3 has two DE, and two DTs, or one NT ("Nose Tackle") and one UT ("Under tackle")--but still two tackles, not guards.

Is this incorrect, jojo? Or just a too technical distinction?

BTW, I'd stop talking football (or trying to), but I can't find a veterinarian board or a psychology board that's as interesting and amusing as this.

The terms nose guard and nose tackle are interchangeable, but I typically use the nose guard term to describe the fatter of the two interior defensive lineman (next to the smaller and quicker undertackle) in the 4-3, who takes on the center and left guard, and the term nose tackle for the 3-4 interior lineman.

Referring to previous post: Nobody here called anyone a "moron". You may check all my posts. To state that I called someone that name is clearly unfair, and you are better than that.

And, as I clearly stated on the opening post of my Niners' Draft Grade, we will never know how this all plays out for years, so it is all speculation at this point. I have strong opinions about the players selected, as always, and individuals such as yourself are mortified by my analysis (the C grade is the horror of all horrors). Since when has a C grade been worthy of such wrath? I have certainly broken out F grades before, for other Niners' players, like the ones mentioned before. I have not put Aldon in that catagory. Hence, the C grade, rather than the F grade.

As for criticism for members of the board who are doing everything in their ability to justify the pick, even though they: 1) thought it was terrible on draft day (the majority of fans on the board were clearly unhappy with the pick on Thursday night); or 2) didn't know who Aldon Smith was; or 3) find it too painful to accept that the Niners missed an opportunity to select a better player, or find a better draft plan, I believe the criticism is fair. There is a difference between supporting the team, and the players, which everyone is on board with, and celebrating player personnel matters. The draft is a player personnel matter, just like picking up someone in free agency.

Should we do backflips and defend to the death the Niners upcoming decision (making up scenario here) to sign free agent Donovan McNabb, Matt Bulger, or Carson Palmer in a trade? Do these players instantly go from being worthless or mediocre to really good because they sign with the team?

What I am saying is that it doesn't make a fan any lesser of a fan if they are not pleased with the player personnel decisions the team makes. It just means they feel an opportunity was lost, and the team could have done better. I wasn't worked up when Smith's name was read, I simply stated, "interesting pick", not "horrible pick" or "great pick", and moved onto the Titans who were on the clock.

You attempt to yearly discredit any analysis I make, present or future, by referring to one pick in one draft, four years ago. It is clearly a punk move, and you know it, since I have never claimed perfection, and am perfectly fine to admit when I have missed.

I have never known a DL coach or DC to use the terms "NT" and "NG" interchangeably. Too much likelihood of confusion for the players, especially in systems that may use a hybrid defense and play a little 3-4 along with a base 4-3, or vice versa.

Nevertheless, if you want to mix the terms, that's okay with me, now that you've clarified what you mean. No problemo, locoperro.

As for "yearly" discrediting your analysis by referring to your Carriker gaffe, this may be the first year I've mentioned it. Maybe others have brought it up before.

Sometimes it takes several years to evaluate a draft, and the Willis/Carriker draft was only four years ago. You have to admit, it was a mistake to pick Carriker (DL) over Willis (LB) back then, though.

It may well be a mistake that you have repeated this year--choosing to criticize the Aldon Smith pick (LB) and arguing that the team should have picked Watts (DL) instead. See the similarity? I doubt that it will be as monumental as the Willis/Carriker debacle though, unless Aldon Smith immediately turns into a Pro Bowler and Watts simultaneously falls out of the league.

If that happens, rest assured we will all blame you, and will hope that in the future, you pick some DL over a LB, or a CB, or a RB, or a WR, etc.--sort of a reverse albatross effect will be expected of all your selections. (Not really, just kidding.) (BTW, how could I criticize your "future" analysis? You haven't made it yet, have you?)

I don't know why you are so thin skinned about your Carriker/Harris over Willis analysis. You had your reasons at the time, none of which were without some merit. You simply failed to recognize how great a talent P. Willis was at the time.

Seems that two "professionals" (McNolan), given the insider information that teams develop on draft picks, can make wise selections that may not seem obvious even to the most dedicated draft amateurs. No shame in that, is there?

I've got no problem with your trying to temper some of the overzealous enthusiasm that Niner fans may have for the newest potential members of the team. Every fan falls into that trap now and then, don't they?

Sometimes you accuse such fans of being less than intelligent, however, and doing so is going too far, IMHO. So sometimes I point that out to you. Just trying to help.

You should be thanking me for bringing up your past draft selections. It gives you an opportunity to explain your thinking back then, and now. For a guy who claims to have "no problem" admitting to past mistakes, you seem upset about admitting (and being given the chance to explain) some of them.

Really, no need for that attitude. Its all just discussion.

I am not "mortified" at the fact you gave the 7th pick a "C" grade. I don't really care what grade you gave the pick. What is your grade going to change? Answer: nothing.

I understand and agree that the Aldon Smith selection may have some risk. Maybe, God forbid, he gains 20 lbs and turns into a 4-3 DE instead of a 3-4 OLB. He'll likely still be a good football player, either way.

Time will tell.

cheers

Holy crap @ the books being written here recently.

Niners had a huge need for a pass rusher they drafted one in Aldon Smith. He may not be as quick as some other guys around but he does get the job done somehow. Let's just sit back and hope he transitions well to the NFL at 3-4 OLB.

And for the record I liked Smith for a while now

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=152871

Reply #3, altho I would've moved Dareus up over Aldon right before the draft.

no need to waste time on this one...holy blah blah blah...

You heard it here first. Aldon Smith will be better than Clay Matthews, Charles Haley, Reggie White, Mario Williams and Michael Strahan, combined. Book that s**t, homie!

P.S. you might as well add in Super Fly Jimmy Snucka and Paul Bundy.

In 20 years a new Hall of Fame will be built specifically for Aldon Smith.

Loved your first correction post on the Carriker/Willis topic, MD. I was apparently in the exact same stance you were and had taken sh*t multiple times over it as you did in this thread.

We can never really know what Carriker could have accomplished in the 3-4 DE role he should have stepped into. Yes, Willis is clearly a great LB now and I even liked him then, but I preferred to use that pick building the D from the inside out.

As for Aldon Smith vs Ware, I actually prefer an Aldon Smith vs Charles Haley comparison. (obviously, best-case scenario)

I gave the pick a "C" as well, though my fan-hood has been tempted to bump it higher, ever slightly. You asked the right question... was he one of the 7 best prospects? Nope. He is so raw that I had him rated as a later first rounder that would still probably be selected earlier than he should be.

As a fan, I am sure we will all be hoping him great success though.

If I recall, pitts linebackers tend to be huge and do alright. If he grows with the wight and doesn't slow down good! Makes him more of a load. Baalke claims that only 10-15 plays out of 100 he'll drop back anyway.

Here's some food for thought. Everyone thought Taylor Mays was a lock to be a top 15 pick if he came out a year earlier than he did. After playing another year at USC his game got picked over a lot more and he fell to the middle of the second round. If Mays had done what Quinn did and got suspended for that year he very well may have been drafted much higher than he did. I'm not saying Quinn would have had that kind of dropoff too but were all rating Quinn on football he played well over a year ago.

You all need lives!

From one to another.

And Aldon WILL be better than some pansy Cowgirl, guaranteed!!!

Originally posted by ninertico:
You all need lives!

From one to another.

And Aldon WILL be better than some pansy Cowgirl, guaranteed!!!

Yeah, tico, look who's talkin!

BTW, I give your post a "C" cause it's what we do in this thread an you didn't make that a "moneyback" guarantee.

PS: This lockout stuff is killin me.

Since the 49ers surprise most people and drafted Aldon Smith in the 1st round I’ve watched some of Missouri’s games on ESPN3.com. I don’t think Aldon will be the stud All Pro OLB we hoped he would be. Aldon Smith doesn’t have the quick get off a stud NFL pass rusher needs to be dominate in the NFL. While watching a few Missouri games I’ve noticed the coaches would line Aldon up at DT on third down instead of DE. They would also stunt to the inside from his DE position. Unless Missouri coaches don’t have a clue this doesn’t sound like a dominate NFL pass rusher to me. I like Aldon Smith’s size and athleticism he reminds me more of an Andre Carter than a DeMarcus Ware. I think Aldon Smith can be an average to good pass rusher, but I don’t think he will be a great pass rusher.

Originally posted by TXNinerFan52:
Since the 49ers surprise most people and drafted Aldon Smith in the 1st round I’ve watched some of Missouri’s games on ESPN3.com. I don’t think Aldon will be the stud All Pro OLB we hoped he would be. Aldon Smith doesn’t have the quick get off a stud NFL pass rusher needs to be dominate in the NFL. While watching a few Missouri games I’ve noticed the coaches would line Aldon up at DT on third down instead of DE. They would also stunt to the inside from his DE position. Unless Missouri coaches don’t have a clue this doesn’t sound like a dominate NFL pass rusher to me. I like Aldon Smith’s size and athleticism he reminds me more of an Andre Carter than a DeMarcus Ware. I think Aldon Smith can be an average to good pass rusher, but I don’t think he will be a great pass rusher.

dont look at last years games he was playing with a broken leg throughout the year