DeMarcus Ware vs Aldon Smith

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

Its just a natural part of being a fan. Most of us are more concerned with the Niners doing well then the ability to say "I told you so" later. The draft is one of the few times where every fan of every team can be optimistic because there is no real evidence yet of why they shouldn't be.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

Originally posted by natrone06:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

Its just a natural part of being a fan. Most of us are more concerned with the Niners doing well then the ability to say "I told you so" later. The draft is one of the few times where every fan of every team can be optimistic because there is no real evidence yet of why they shouldn't be.

It is natural to cheer for your team, and the players they select. However, at the same time, fans seem to have unrealistic expectations for these players (Wallace will supplant Heitmann, Davis will boot out Alex Smith, Jason Hill will demote Arnaz Battle, and on and on it goes). The expectations get out of control, and when Aldon Smith does not become DeMarcus Ware, it is a tremendous disappointment.

When people provide analysis on the board, they should be intellectually honest about the players evaluated, and not simply inflate value or deflate value on the player based on who selected them. That is my main beef.

As for the "I told you so", I hope that Smith turns out to be as good or better than Ware, and I will be the first to say that I was wrong in my analysis.

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

Well, if we're gonna look at past drafts, then you have to consider that several years ago, you also had a guy named Adam Carriker valued as a better pick, a higher value at number 11, than the guy the Niners eventually took: a guy by the name of Willis? Patrick Willis? Remember him?

(BTW, how'd Carriker work out at St. Louis? Oh, that's right, he's no longer with them.)

So, yes, teams can miss. But so can amateurs.

And, unbelievably, Niner fans have been all over Willis as a great player ever since he was picked by the Niners. Can you believe that! Those incredibly stupid fans. Supporting Willis because he became a Niner. Tsk.

I can certainly understand your personal frustration over such homerism and fanaticism. Why, its almost as if this were a 49er board.

As for your grade of a C on the Aldon Smith pick, it just seems too harsh. The tape on the guy shows a natural pass rusher, with extraordinarily long arms. He broke Justin Smith's single season sack record at Mizzou as a freshman, and you must agree, Justin Smith is no slouch.

Downgrade the pick because the guy is somewhat of a risk? I can see that, but still think the grade should be a B, at least.

As you are forced to admit, Aldon Smith has huge upside potential. That factor makes it better than a C pick--a grade which should be reserved for a pick that reached for someone with a late first round value (20 plus) who does not have that "huge" upside, not someone picked at 7 that you last had ranked at 11.

C'mon now. (I know this won't happen.) Admit you are being too harsh and bump it up to a B-, at least.

Otherwise the kid gets grounded on the weekends and it ruins his GPA.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

How can YOU assess the value of a pick? Also, is your "value" based on other players available at the same position or the draft in general? Because you could argue that no player in the draft carried "value" at the 7th pick. Your opinion is biased because what happened in the draft goes against how you thought it would go. Of course you are going to give a low grade when the pick is not what you projected. If you had mocked the pick, you would have probably given it an A

I am not singling you out because I disagree with your opinions. I just think it is a joke when the same guys who are projecting the draft are also "grading" the outcome.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

Well, if we're gonna look at past drafts, then you have to consider that several years ago, you also had a guy named Adam Carriker valued as a better pick, a higher value at number 11, than the guy the Niners eventually took: a guy by the name of Willis? Patrick Willis? Remember him?

(BTW, how'd Carriker work out at St. Louis? Oh, that's right, he's no longer with them.)

So, yes, teams can miss. But so can amateurs.

And, unbelievably, Niner fans have been all over Willis as a great player ever since he was picked by the Niners. Can you believe that! Those incredibly stupid fans. Supporting Willis because he became a Niner. Tsk.

I can certainly understand your personal frustration over such homerism and fanaticism. Why, its almost as if this were a 49er board.

As for your grade of a C on the Aldon Smith pick, it just seems too harsh. The tape on the guy shows a natural pass rusher, with extraordinarily long arms. He broke Justin Smith's single season sack record at Mizzou as a freshman, and you must agree, Justin Smith is no slouch.

Downgrade the pick because the guy is somewhat of a risk? I can see that, but still think the grade should be a B, at least.

As you are forced to admit, Aldon Smith has huge upside potential. That factor makes it better than a C pick--a grade which should be reserved for a pick that reached for someone with a late first round value (20 plus) who does not have that "huge" upside, not someone picked at 7 that you last had ranked at 11.

C'mon now. (I know this won't happen.) Admit you are being too harsh and bump it up to a B-, at least.

Otherwise the kid gets grounded on the weekends and it ruins his GPA.

Must have struck a nerve.

Oh, boy, where do I begin. Let's start out with the "let's trot out the annual Adam Carriker" criticism. Of all the drafts, and all of the critique on each and every pick over the years, the only one trotted out is the Carriker selection. If that is the only one you can think of, then I guess I am pretty damn good at this whole thing.

You certainly have higher expectations for me than I have for myself. I promise in the future to be like every GM across the NFL, and hit on every first rounder, second rounder, third rounder. Because, as we know, teams never miss on any picks. Sorry to disappoint. I can itemize where I have been right and wrong over the years on Niners' picks, if you desire. Nobody is claiming perfection on this end.

As stated for the fourth consecutive year now, my rationale in the Willis/Carriker draft is that the team desperately needed both a 3-4 DE and a 3-4 middle linebacker. On my draft board, I had Adam Carriker far superior to any 3-4 DE in the draft, and had David Harris not that far behind Willis at middle linebacker. The thought was that the team could address both positions, with a superior DE and a very good linebacker, compared to a mediocre DE and a slightly better backer.

In the end, the Niners selected Willis and then traded back into the first for Staley. So, they never had a second round pick. Harris was still on the board when the Niners' original second rounder was on the clock. While Willis has been the superior player to Harris, Harris has ended up being a solid backer for the Jets. He was a second team All-Pro in 2009, voted the team MVP by Jets' teammates in 2010, has been franchised by the team to the tune of $10 million in 2011. He's not Willis, but he's not bad.

As for Carriker, he was not drafted by a 3-4 team, but by the Rams who ran a 4-3 team. Then, they asked him to stack on 15 more pounds onto his frame, and moved him not to the undertackle position, but to the Nose Guard position, which was so ridiculous that the Rams conceded later it was a poor decision. He was injured playing the NG in multiple years, and has never fully recovered from those injuries.

If Carriker was drafted by a 3-4 team, you could make a fair comparison of how this might have played out for the Niners. Because he never played the position until his knees were shot as a NG in a 4-3, it is really unfair to judge and compare. It is like asking us to judge if Frank Gore would have been a good selection at WR.

However, if it makes you feel better, I am willing to concede that anything paired with Willis would trump the combination of Carriker and Harris. I still think that Harris is pretty good, and my draft would be pretty special if Carriker had been allowed to play the 3-4 DE role.

For the record, I am not forced to admit anything about Aldon Smith, and I find your statements insulting, as I have always held these views about Smith, long before the pre-draft. In fact, outside of myself, OTC and a few others on this board, Smith was never mentioned. Now, he's become a cult hero for many on this board. While I hope he far exceeds my expectations, I am not simply going to go gaga on him just because the team picks him.

You would have to be obtuse to not notice how Niners' fans overgrade their selections. Do you honestly think Kaepernick would be the runaway winner for the best QB in this draft thread if the team had drafted Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, or Dalton?

If you are going to repetitiously pound me on the Carriker/Willis draft, would it be far too much to acknowledge that I have been scary correct on many of the Niners players selected over the years, including the great Chilo Rachal, Taylor Mays, Navarro Bowman, Cody Wallace, Jason Hill selections in the first few rounds. Are you celebrating their great accomplishments for this team, because I surely was not impressed with any of these selections, and was more than willing to declare my displeasure.

Finally, are you that upset in the difference between a B grade that you can envision for the Smith pick, and the C grade I gave?

Looking forward to doing this all over again in 2012. Thanks.

Originally posted by RichmondPete:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

How can YOU assess the value of a pick? Also, is your "value" based on other players available at the same position or the draft in general? Because you could argue that no player in the draft carried "value" at the 7th pick. Your opinion is biased because what happened in the draft goes against how you thought it would go. Of course you are going to give a low grade when the pick is not what you projected. If you had mocked the pick, you would have probably given it an A

I am not singling you out because I disagree with your opinions. I just think it is a joke when the same guys who are projecting the draft are also "grading" the outcome.

The reason I can assess the pick is by asking, "Is Aldon Smith amongst the best seven picks in the draft"? The answer: No.

Do you think he is one of the seven best players in all this draft?

I don't give grades based on whether it matches where a player I projected is selected. If that was so, I would give the Panthers an A grade, because I projected Newton to be selected. The same goes for Chris Culliver. I projected him to be selected at pick 80, which he was by the Niners. But, I didn't give the pick an A.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Baugh_Area:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another note: If Quinn had been the pick, I would take a wild guess and say that the mountain of praise heaped upon the selection of Smith would be equal or matched with Quinn.

Since the Niners selected Smith, instead of Quinn, Quinn has suddenly lost talent.

i always said quinn is gonna be a beast but aldon smith is much better suited for 3-4 OLB than quinn

My statement was a critique of how fans tend to evaluate players. Players selected by other teams are marginalized, while Niners' picks are completely inflated in value. I just think it is faulty logic. We've gone down this road so many times the past few years, with the selections of Rachal "Beast Mode", Taylor Mays, Nate Davis, and so many others. Fans celebrate these selections as gems, and those that criticize the picks are considered villains, and the team is defended to the death. I gave the Smith pick a "C" grade and some people treat it like it is the end of the world, an outrage against humanity.

For instance, if Gabbert was picked, the board would be readyto cast the bust for the Hall of Fame. Since CK was selected, he is saluted in the latest poll as the best QB in this draft. Evaluations should never be based on whether your team picked him, or another.

All Praise to Baalke!!!!

I don't know MD. I think as amateurs with limited resources, it's unwise to be too stubborn about our own player rankings. So much of the job interview happens behind closed doors and so much misinformation is flying around that there's no telling what's true.

As webzone GM's we get to set our draft boards based on the film we've seen (be it on youtube, or DVR'd games or what have you), the word of our most trusted media sources and our gut instincts. Meanwhile the pros, who get paid to make these decisions, have access to real game film, multiple interviews, interviews with players family and friends and etc.

Basically if I trust a team (like I do the Pats, Ravens, Steelers and even how I trust the current 49ers regime) to make the right pick, then whatever they end up doing trumps what I thought they should do. I didn't have us selecting Aldon Smith with the 7th pick, but I trust the gentlemen leading our team right now, so obviously there was something they saw that convinced them. They're not trying to pick a bust.

Now, if Samurai Mike were still our coach and he were making the pick....then I'd be a lot less willing to take a leap of faith and trust.

There is no doubt that the team has that insider stuff that none of us possess. However, even with that inside access, teams are wrong a lot of the time, sometimes even more than amateurs on the outside.

My concern with Smith was not grading him as a bad football player. It is the value at the 7th overall. That is why I gave the pick a C grade. He has a huge upside, but the risk is very high in my opinion. It is different that my analysis last year of Taylor Mays, where I gave the pick an F grade because I do not see him as anything more than a special teamer in the NFL. He simply will not be a successful starting safety in the NFL.

Well, if we're gonna look at past drafts, then you have to consider that several years ago, you also had a guy named Adam Carriker valued as a better pick, a higher value at number 11, than the guy the Niners eventually took: a guy by the name of Willis? Patrick Willis? Remember him?

(BTW, how'd Carriker work out at St. Louis? Oh, that's right, he's no longer with them.)

So, yes, teams can miss. But so can amateurs.

And, unbelievably, Niner fans have been all over Willis as a great player ever since he was picked by the Niners. Can you believe that! Those incredibly stupid fans. Supporting Willis because he became a Niner. Tsk.

I can certainly understand your personal frustration over such homerism and fanaticism. Why, its almost as if this were a 49er board.

As for your grade of a C on the Aldon Smith pick, it just seems too harsh. The tape on the guy shows a natural pass rusher, with extraordinarily long arms. He broke Justin Smith's single season sack record at Mizzou as a freshman, and you must agree, Justin Smith is no slouch.

Downgrade the pick because the guy is somewhat of a risk? I can see that, but still think the grade should be a B, at least.

As you are forced to admit, Aldon Smith has huge upside potential. That factor makes it better than a C pick--a grade which should be reserved for a pick that reached for someone with a late first round value (20 plus) who does not have that "huge" upside, not someone picked at 7 that you last had ranked at 11.

C'mon now. (I know this won't happen.) Admit you are being too harsh and bump it up to a B-, at least.

Otherwise the kid gets grounded on the weekends and it ruins his GPA.

Must have struck a nerve.

Oh, boy, where do I begin. Let's start out with the "let's trot out the annual Adam Carriker" criticism. Of all the drafts, and all of the critique on each and every pick over the years, the only one trotted out is the Carriker selection. If that is the only one you can think of, then I guess I am pretty damn good at this whole thing.

You certainly have higher expectations for me than I have for myself. I promise in the future to be like every GM across the NFL, and hit on every first rounder, second rounder, third rounder. Because, as we know, teams never miss on any picks. Sorry to disappoint. I can itemize where I have been right and wrong over the years on Niners' picks, if you desire. Nobody is claiming perfection on this end.

As stated for the fourth consecutive year now, my rationale in the Willis/Carriker draft is that the team desperately needed both a 3-4 DE and a 3-4 middle linebacker. On my draft board, I had Adam Carriker far superior to any 3-4 DE in the draft, and had David Harris not that far behind Willis at middle linebacker. The thought was that the team could address both positions, with a superior DE and a very good linebacker, compared to a mediocre DE and a slightly better backer.

In the end, the Niners selected Willis and then traded back into the first for Staley. So, they never had a second round pick. Harris was still on the board when the Niners' original second rounder was on the clock. While Willis has been the superior player to Harris, Harris has ended up being a solid backer for the Jets. He was a second team All-Pro in 2009, voted the team MVP by Jets' teammates in 2010, has been franchised by the team to the tune of $10 million in 2011. He's not Willis, but he's not bad.

As for Carriker, he was not drafted by a 3-4 team, but by the Rams who ran a 4-3 team. Then, they asked him to stack on 15 more pounds onto his frame, and moved him not to the undertackle position, but to the Nose Guard position, which was so ridiculous that the Rams conceded later it was a poor decision. He was injured playing the NG in multiple years, and has never fully recovered from those injuries.

If Carriker was drafted by a 3-4 team, you could make a fair comparison of how this might have played out for the Niners. Because he never played the position until his knees were shot as a NG in a 4-3, it is really unfair to judge and compare. It is like asking us to judge if Frank Gore would have been a good selection at WR.

However, if it makes you feel better, I am willing to concede that anything paired with Willis would trump the combination of Carriker and Harris. I still think that Harris is pretty good, and my draft would be pretty special if Carriker had been allowed to play the 3-4 DE role.

For the record, I am not forced to admit anything about Aldon Smith, and I find your statements insulting, as I have always held these views about Smith, long before the pre-draft. In fact, outside of myself, OTC and a few others on this board, Smith was never mentioned. Now, he's become a cult hero for many on this board. While I hope he far exceeds my expectations, I am not simply going to go gaga on him just because the team picks him.

You would have to be obtuse to not notice how Niners' fans overgrade their selections. Do you honestly think Kaepernick would be the runaway winner for the best QB in this draft thread if the team had drafted Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, or Dalton?

If you are going to repetitiously pound me on the Carriker/Willis draft, would it be far too much to acknowledge that I have been scary correct on many of the Niners players selected over the years, including the great Chilo Rachal, Taylor Mays, Navarro Bowman, Cody Wallace, Jason Hill selections in the first few rounds. Are you celebrating their great accomplishments for this team, because I surely was not impressed with any of these selections, and was more than willing to declare my displeasure.

Finally, are you that upset in the difference between a B grade that you can envision for the Smith pick, and the C grade I gave?

Looking forward to doing this all over again in 2012. Thanks.

Dammit! I bet my house and retirement funds on you being correct every time and now you tell me you're not! Thanks!

I think I'm going to backpeddle a little. I really like the Smith pick, but it seems too risky for the 7th pick in the draft. The kid is already 260lbs, in a few years he might be too big to play in open space and he's already said to be too stiff.

I'm starting to get the sense Baalke has a little Al Davis in him. A lot of his picks seem like high potential, low production (young) players that play outside of their natural position. Davis, Mays, Smith, Miller, Culliver all seem to fit that discription.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I think I'm going to backpeddle a little. I really like the Smith pick, but it seems too risky for the 7th pick in the draft. The kid is already 260lbs, in a few years he might be too big to play in open space and he's already said to be too stiff.

I'm starting to get the sense Baalke has a little Al Davis in him. A lot of his picks seem like high potential, low production (young) players that play outside of their natural position. Davis, Mays, Smith, Miller, Culliver all seem to fit that discription.

Davis and Mays had Singletary written all over them. I think this is really the first year Baalke had the control. Harbaugh probably said "I want kaepernick" and the rest was up to Baalke

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I think I'm going to backpeddle a little. I really like the Smith pick, but it seems too risky for the 7th pick in the draft. The kid is already 260lbs, in a few years he might be too big to play in open space and he's already said to be too stiff.

I'm starting to get the sense Baalke has a little Al Davis in him. A lot of his picks seem like high potential, low production (young) players that play outside of their natural position. Davis, Mays, Smith, Miller, Culliver all seem to fit that discription.

Davis and Mays had Singletary written all over them. I think this is really the first year Baalke had the control. Harbaugh probably said "I want kaepernick" and the rest was up to Baalke

I know what you mean, but I dont know that has ever been confirmed or will be until those guys are off the team or Baalke is fired. Shoot, if they end up in the probowl, I'm sure he'll take the credit.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I think I'm going to backpeddle a little. I really like the Smith pick, but it seems too risky for the 7th pick in the draft. The kid is already 260lbs, in a few years he might be too big to play in open space and he's already said to be too stiff.

I'm starting to get the sense Baalke has a little Al Davis in him. A lot of his picks seem like high potential, low production (young) players that play outside of their natural position. Davis, Mays, Smith, Miller, Culliver all seem to fit that discription.

Then who would you have picked with the seventh? Prince was obviously not as good as people and pronasticators thought or he would not have falled that far. Quinn? Many now agree and say he is better as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB. Baalke tried to trade back, but not that far back as to lose who he wanted. Gabbert? Obviously JH didn't want him. Smith is not a low production btw he had more production in two years than Quinn who some were clamoring for, in fact 6 sacks playing on a broken fibula and missing three games is telling. Sure I would like someone like Von Miller, but he was out of reach.

Somebody made a good point about Fangio is going to use him all over and that the comparison to Ware was wrong. Smith played all over. As for the others I agree, Culliver and Miller (mostly because of different position.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I think I'm going to backpeddle a little. I really like the Smith pick, but it seems too risky for the 7th pick in the draft. The kid is already 260lbs, in a few years he might be too big to play in open space and he's already said to be too stiff.

I'm starting to get the sense Baalke has a little Al Davis in him. A lot of his picks seem like high potential, low production (young) players that play outside of their natural position. Davis, Mays, Smith, Miller, Culliver all seem to fit that discription.

Davis and Mays had Singletary written all over them. I think this is really the first year Baalke had the control. Harbaugh probably said "I want kaepernick" and the rest was up to Baalke

I know what you mean, but I dont know that has ever been confirmed or will be until those guys are off the team or Baalke is fired. Shoot, if they end up in the probowl, I'm sure he'll take the credit.

I think everybody should realize that Baalke shouldn't have all the credit or all the blame, maybe 50%, the other should go to the coaches who said yeah he has the talent to play take him.

A good GM will work with and find the players that fit the coaches scheme. This draft people are forgetting, is that the coaches were more involved than they usually are because of the CBA, they had nothing else to do. So they were much more involved in the scouting. This been said so by JH and Baalke. Is this a good thing-sometimes yes and sometimes no as a coach can fall in love with a player like Ditka did with Ricky Williams. Or good like when Walsh, when they were looking for a CB and he siad isn't there someone on our board who is faster and more athletic than the CB that was being bandied about at the time-ended up picking Don Griffin.