OTC's Draft Eve 49er Mock -- April 27

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by PTulini:
I like most of the picks, but I'm just not a fan of Ricky Stanzi.

You know, I'm not a big fan either. I think it would be a risky pick, but for some reason I think we still might do it. Here's to hoping whoever we get turns out to be just fine though.

I'll drink to that.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by dmax:
Hey OTC

What about greg little for the 4th rd WR

That would be an absolute no-brainer, as he is an absolutely electric player who would physically dominate corners in the NFL. Only problem is he likely won't be there in the 4th. I believe he'll go in the 2nd or early 3rd round.

Little has enormous potential and had only just cracked the surface of it after converting from RB to WR at UNC. Little is even faster than his timed speed indicates and can either juke you out of your socks or run over you in the open field. Extremely tough to bring down, and rarely loses a battle for a jump ball. Outstanding blocker too.

I think he's a darkhorse candidate for us in the 2nd if all the qb's are gone. Think Stanzi should be sitting there for us in the 3rd. Or we could just trade for an extra 2nd. With the amount of picks we got, I have a feeling we are going to make a trade at some point.

I'd be happy with Prince and Stanzi, but I'd want them at 10 and 76, not 7 and 45.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Travisty13:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by mayo49:
Love everything except the first pick. Prince is supposed to have real short arms. Not good for a CB. I'd cream my pants for everything else, though.

His arms are not that short. I imagine you're referring to the Parcells note on Amukamara? FYI, Parcells has Prince #1 on his board ahead of Peterson, despite these supposed "short arms."

That is where I heard it. I didn't catch where he said Prince was ahead of Peterson on his board. I guess that makes it a little better. Still, I hope it doesn't hinder his coverage skills.

His arms are an 1 and 1/2 shorter then Petersons. Lol. Not enough to take him off our Draft Board lol. And yeah, on Bill's board he's rated higher. Go look at the Parcells' thread, last page. I posted the complete list/rankings

Thanks, Trav his arms aren't real short like Parcells made it sound. I know E. Davis had him as a better pure CB than Peterson. I have alot of respect to what Davis has to say having played the position himself. I guess I overreacted a little bit. Still, I don't like short arms on my CB's. But, it sounds like Prince's arms a just about average.

No problem man. I don't think his arms are a worry.

Originally posted by Otter:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by PTulini:
I like most of the picks, but I'm just not a fan of Ricky Stanzi.

You know, I'm not a big fan either. I think it would be a risky pick, but for some reason I think we still might do it. Here's to hoping whoever we get turns out to be just fine though.

I'll drink to that.

Bottom line: I'll support anyone not named Cam Newton!

I really don't see how it would be smart to draft for a franchise quarterback in any round outside of 1. Just look at all the recent playoff QBs; it is extremely rare to talk of the Bradys, the Romos, the Hasselbecks, the Brees, and the Warners who come from later rounds. Brees didn't even become amazing until he went to New Orleans, Warner was around 28 when he took he Rams to the playoffs, and Hasselbeck was in his 5th or 6th year before he lead the Seahawks into the post-season. Most playoff QBs come from the 1st round, period.

Taken from this article about the playoffs: http://min.scout.com/2/1035764.html

"In the NFC, four teams have locked down playoffs spots. Their quarterbacks? Matt Ryan, Michael Vick and Jay Cutler – all former first-round picks – and Drew Brees, who was the first draft pick in the second round when he was selected by the Chargers. The Rams are ahead in the NFC West, where their quarterback is April’s first overall pick Sam Bradford. Three teams are still in contention for the final wild card spot – Green Bay, New York and Tampa Bay. All of them have quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round – Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Josh Freeman.

Things aren’t much different in the AFC. While you have Tom Brady, a former sixth-round pick acknowledged as one of the all-time greats (and arguably the biggest draft-day steal), of the other four teams that are guaranteed to make the postseason, three of them have quarterbacks drafted in the first round – Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. Only Brady and former teammate Matt Cassel weren’t first-round picks. The lone remaining playoff spot open is likely to be taken by the Colts and former first overall draft pick Peyton Manning."

Only four out of twelve were non-1st rounders.

The final three games (including the superbowl) were between 1st round QBs. Although, admittedly, some of the greatest QBs of all time (brady and montana) were taken late, they are exceptions rather than the norm, and there are yet others who would argue for Elway, Marino, and Manning over those two.

If you look at this page, you'll see that the QBs with the most playoff games played have solid representation within the 1st round, especially if you take away some of the QBs from the 70s and only focus on recent years. Only 6 out of the top 15 (listed by most playoff games) are from outside of the 1st round.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_starting_quarterback_playoff_records

I agree with what has been suggested by people like Swagger. If you see a QB you want, you take him in the 1st and reach for him then and there. If Locker, Ponder, or whoever is your guy, you go and get him and have your franchise QB--there is no reason to compromise. Otherwise, the odds are that your QB picked outside of round 1 will be serviceable at best.

As I posted in another thread, I believe Harbaugh goes either early or way late for a QB. He is probably confident he could coach up anyone he believes he has talent (even Alex Smith :P), so I doubt that he wouldnt feel the same way about someone drafted even on the third day.

[ Edited by Eskendale on Apr 27, 2011 at 16:14:59 ]

I love the first 3 rounds I'm praying this is what happens on draft day. But rounds 4-7 I'm not to sold on I like the Sherman pick ( the standford one) butthe rest I'm not to fond of

Also looking at the last 7 drafts.

2004, 3 1st Round Qbs out of 17 drafted, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman, and Manning (all have been to the playoffs except Losman). No non-first QBs to the playoffs.


2005, 2 1st Round Qbs out of 14 drafted, Smith, Rodgers, Campbell (only rodgers has been to the playoffs). Only Matt Cassel was the non-first QB in the playoffs.

2006, 3 1st Round Qbs out of 12 drafted, Young, Leinart, and Cutler (Young and Cutler to playoffs). Only Tarvaris Jackson was the non-first QB in the playoffs.

2007, 2 1st Round Qbs out of 11 drafted, Russel, Quinn. No QB in this draft made the playoffs.

2008, 2 1st Round Qbs out of 13 drafted, Flacco, Ryan, (both have been to the playoffs). No non-first QBs to the playoffs.

2009, 3 1st Round Qbs out of 17 drafted, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford (only Sanchez in the playoffs). No non-first QBs to the playoffs.

2010, 2 1st Round Qbs out of 17 drafted, Tebow, Bradford. No QB in this draft made the playoffs.

In 7 drafts only two QBs, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Cassel have led their teams to the playoffs, compared to 9 1st round picks, with Freeman and Bradford barely missing the playoffs (potentially increasing the number to 11).

If you look at recent draft history, there is overwhelming evidence that 1st round picks have a better chance of landing you in the playoffs. Coincidentally, a few of the teams that had 1st round picks leading them had very good supporting casts, with a QB who had to simply manage the game. Flacco with the Ravens D, Roethlisberger with the Pittsburgh D and running game, Ryan with Michael Turner and a decent D, and Manning with Tiki. Vince Young used his natural athletic ability, while both Rivers and Rodgers sat for a bit.

Out of 7 drafts the only year that yielded no playoff 1st round QBs was the year of Russel.

[ Edited by Eskendale on Apr 27, 2011 at 16:58:15 ]

nvm...........

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

I know the Niners went in a different direction, but how did most of these guys turn out in the first year? I know Prince got injured early.

Stanzi is just a backup.

Sam Acho did very well for Arizona: 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovered, and 1 safety.

Denarius Moore was a stud as well: He battled an injury that forced him to miss about four games, but in 10 starts he compiled 618 yards receiving, 5 TD, and 61 yards rushing with 1 TD.

Vereen was hurt pretty much all year, and some speculated he'd go on IR.

Sherman played in every game, starting 10, and did a great job as a rookie for Seattle. Put up 17 passes knocked down, 4 INT, and 1 FF.

Anthony Sherman started at FB for Arizona.

Akeem Dent was a reserve LB for Atlanta and played in every game.

Kirkpatrick I believe is on the Colts practice squad.

Silva was on Buffalo's practice squad, and then Dallas signed him to their active roster due to injuries to other players.

Gray was signed by Steelers as UDFA. Didn't make the cut.

Levingston was drafted by Seattle and was a reserve DE for them. Only played in four games.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

I know the Niners went in a different direction, but how did most of these guys turn out in the first year? I know Prince got injured early.

Stanzi is just a backup.

Sam Acho did very well for Arizona: 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovered, and 1 safety.

Denarius Moore was a stud as well: He battled an injury that forced him to miss about four games, but in 10 starts he compiled 618 yards receiving, 5 TD, and 61 yards rushing with 1 TD.

Vereen was hurt pretty much all year, and some speculated he'd go on IR.

Sherman played in every game, starting 10, and did a great job as a rookie for Seattle. Put up 17 passes knocked down, 4 INT, and 1 FF.

Anthony Sherman started at FB for Arizona.

Akeem Dent was a reserve LB for Atlanta and played in every game.

Kirkpatrick I believe is on the Colts practice squad.

Silva was on Buffalo's practice squad, and then Dallas signed him to their active roster due to injuries to other players.

Gray was signed by Steelers as UDFA. Didn't make the cut.

Levingston was drafted by Seattle and was a reserve DE for them. Only played in four games.

I don't believe many were available in those spots also. Sherman went earlier in the fifth, and Acho in the 2nd I believe. Can't remember Moore. Good list of players tho.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

I know the Niners went in a different direction, but how did most of these guys turn out in the first year? I know Prince got injured early.

Stanzi is just a backup.

Sam Acho did very well for Arizona: 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovered, and 1 safety.

Denarius Moore was a stud as well: He battled an injury that forced him to miss about four games, but in 10 starts he compiled 618 yards receiving, 5 TD, and 61 yards rushing with 1 TD.

Vereen was hurt pretty much all year, and some speculated he'd go on IR.

Sherman played in every game, starting 10, and did a great job as a rookie for Seattle. Put up 17 passes knocked down, 4 INT, and 1 FF.

Anthony Sherman started at FB for Arizona.

Akeem Dent was a reserve LB for Atlanta and played in every game.

Kirkpatrick I believe is on the Colts practice squad.

Silva was on Buffalo's practice squad, and then Dallas signed him to their active roster due to injuries to other players.

Gray was signed by Steelers as UDFA. Didn't make the cut.

Levingston was drafted by Seattle and was a reserve DE for them. Only played in four games.

I don't believe many were available in those spots also. Sherman went earlier in the fifth, and Acho in the 2nd I believe. Can't remember Moore. Good list of players tho.

Most of them were available. 8/12 to be exact.

Amukamara went 19th overall
Acho went in the 4th (steal)
Moore in the 5th (what a steal)
Stanzi in the 5th (Much later than many anticipated, that's for sure)
Richard Sherman went 154 overall, just three picks after ours at 151.

Then of course Kirkpatrick, Silva, and Gray were UDFA's. Not ashamed to make a small miss on 7th rounders.

Levingston did go in the 7th, but earlier at 205 to Seattle.

I though Dent and Vereen were very poor reaches by both teams. What they contributed last year shows that I may be correct.

Ah... the memories of past days....I'd be curious to see who you had on your value board when we selected at each place in the draft. I posted mine last year in this post:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/154846-you-could-redo-one-49ers-pick-would-take/search=redo

We'll have to do this during the draft this year, and analyze later.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Ah... the memories of past days....I'd be curious to see who you had on your value board when we selected at each place in the draft. I posted mine last year in this post:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/154846-you-could-redo-one-49ers-pick-would-take/search=redo

We'll have to do this during the draft this year, and analyze later.

I never got around to posting my redraft. I'll pull up my 2011 board and do it so we can compare.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Ah... the memories of past days....I'd be curious to see who you had on your value board when we selected at each place in the draft. I posted mine last year in this post:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/154846-you-could-redo-one-49ers-pick-would-take/search=redo

We'll have to do this during the draft this year, and analyze later.

I never got around to posting my redraft. I'll pull up my 2011 board and do it so we can compare.

OK, so here's what my value board would have produced for us if I had been running the draft.

7 - CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
45 - WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky*
76 - OLB Sam Acho, Texas
108 - RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St.
115 - OL Marcus Cannon, TCU
141 - OL Jason Pinkston, Pitt
174 - NT Jerrel Powe, Mississippi
190 - SS Tyler Sash, Iowa*
211 - LB Bruce Miller, UCF
231 - DE Lawrence Guy, Arizona State*
239 - QB Pat Devlin, Delaware

Note to everyone: this is what my board would've selected, NOT who I'd pick NOW knowing what I do know now. This was done under the assumption of no trades, so..