Originally posted by PloomDG:
In looking over this list of all the QB's drafted over the last thirty years, two things jump out. The first is that while taking QB's in the first round is obviously risky given that a significant number of them bust out, the odds of drafting a decent QB after the first round are drastically lower. This is well covered territory in other posts, so I won't go on and on about it. The other thing that is pretty interesting (at least to me) is that of all the QB success stories in rounds 2-7+, almost none of them had their greatest success with the team that drafted them. People cite examples like Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger as late round success stories, (and rightfully so) but neither one became the QB we remember until they moved on from GB and NO, respectively. In going back over it, the only two late round successes that stuck with their original teams are Tom Brady and David Garrard. Drew Brees had two great years with SD, but when all is said and done his career in NO will be all that anybody remembers.
All of the above leads me to this point: whether or not you're in love with Blaine Gabbert or not, history suggests that he has around a 50% chance of succeeding as a first-round pick. The success rate of QB's taken after the first round (with their original teams) is less than 10%. For someone like me, who's taken a shining to Andy Dalton, that's pretty sobering information.
I looked at the chart that you used to draw your conclusions. I will look at again, but my first take is that the statistics provide have very little predictive value.
I did not crunch the numbers, and in fact I am not even sure if I have the statistical skills to do so, but it does not look like 50% quarterbacks picked in the first round
(edit in bold) can be considered successful.
And even if they could be that success rate is not much better than what you get by flipping a coin.
Clearly there can be no disputing the difficulty of picking a good quarterback.
Put this way, picking a QB in the first round does not enhance the chances that the QB picked will prove to be good.
I looked at the chart again. There are many worthy quarterbacks that were picked after the 1st round. In rounds 2 to 10, I found almost thirty that have been decent or better. A good number have made the pro bowl at least one time.
In the end it means, that we have a decent chance to find a QB after the first round.
Here is the list.
1. Brett Favre 19 year starter, three times all pro, eleven pro bowls
2. Randall Cunningham seven year starter, once all pro, four pro bowls
3. Drew Brees nine year starter, once all pro, five pro bowls
4. Boomer Esiason 12 year starter, once all pro, four pro bowls
5. Neil Lomax seven year starter, two pro bowls
6. Kordell Stewart six year starter one pro bowl
7. Charlie Batch four year starter
8. Jake Plummer 10 year starter, one pro bowl
9. Matt Schaub- four year starter one pro bowl
10. Jay Schroeder eight year starter
11. Neil O'Donnell seven year starter, one pro bowl
12. Jeff Hostetler starter for six years, one pro bowl
13. Brian Griese five year starter one pro bowl
14. Jay Schroeder eight year starter, one pro bowl
15. David Garrard five year starter one pro bowl
16. Kyle Orton four year starter
17. Scott Mitchell five year starter
18. Rich Gannon eight year starter, twice all pro, four all pro bowls
17. Mark Brunell eleven year starter three pro bowls
18. Derek Anderson three year starter one pro bowl
19. Matt Hasselbeck nine year starter 3 pro bowls
20. Mark Rypien five year starter, two pro bowls
21 Jeff Blake eight year starter, one pro bowl
22. Tom Brady nine year starter, twice all pro, six pro bowls
23. Gus Frerotte five year starter one pro bowl
24. Matt Cassel three year starter, one pro bowl
25. Wade Wilson four year starter, one pro bowl
26. Trent Green seven year starter two pro bowls
27. Brad Johnson eight year starter, two pro bowls
28. Doug Flutie four year starter, one pro bowl
[ Edited by buck on Apr 3, 2011 at 12:51 AM ]