I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
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2nd Round QB Success
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Apr 1, 2011 at 9:44 AM
- TX9R
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Apr 1, 2011 at 9:49 AM
- ninerlifer
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Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
Apr 1, 2011 at 9:54 AM
- Nuns
- Veteran
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Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
You wouldn't throw Montana into the success group? Or are you just counting current qb's? Hasselback has had a decent career as well.
[ Edited by Nuns on Apr 1, 2011 at 10:02:11 ]
Apr 1, 2011 at 9:58 AM
- TX9R
- Veteran
- Posts: 8,348
Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
Kolb hasn't proven to be an utter failure yet either, he's had some phenomenal games at times. Again look at the situations, most any QB good enough to get drafted has the physical ability to succeed, the majority end up in a poor situation.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:03 AM
- TheRickestRick
- Veteran
- Posts: 10,381
Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
Yahoo NFL writers are a joke...
Clausen... TBD, he was bad last year.. but so was every other Carolina QB. Do I think he will be good, no. But way to early to label him a bust as a rookie on one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Pat White... Drafted purely for Wildcat purposes, and overdrafted for that purpose. The NFL adjusted to the Wildcat and Pat White no longer holds the value he did when defenses didn't know how to adjust, no one took him seriously as a passing QB, and he doesn't have the toughness like a Brad Smith to transition to another position.
Brohm = complete bust, had 1st round potential (maybe even the top QB) had he came out a year earlier. His lack of arm strength got exposed, and he doesn't have the "it" factor to pull off a career like Chad Pennington.
Henne... TBD, he is inconsistent but it's way to early to label him as a bust. He has the tools but needs to be coached up which will be hard in Miami. Entirely possible he flames out in Miami due to their offensive philosophy, goes to a different team and becomes a solid QB for a few years.
Kolb... Eagles are about to get a #1 pick in this years draft after spending a second round pick on him and he's won games for them when he has had the opportunities. "He didnt play poorly.. the jury is still out on him"... talk about crap writing. Again, he is about to be traded for a first round pick... the jury has spoken, whether he is successful in the long term is a different story.
Beck, Clemons, and Tuiasosopo, these were bad picks. Beck & Tui were products of the offense and Clemons just couldn't read defenses.
Brees... nuff said.
Stanton, Carter, and Jackson... solid backups. Carter flamed out due to personal issues, Jackson could have an opportunity to be a solid starter and Stanton is a decent backup.
Yahoo writers are crap when it comes to west coast teams, as well as most writing in general.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:06 AM
- ninerlifer
- Veteran
- Posts: 17,228
Originally posted by Nuns:Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
You wouldn't throw Montana into the success group? Or are you just counting current qb's? Hasselback has had a decent career as well.
well yeah, current ones from the 90's on. There will never be another Montana or Brady. Well I wouldnt say never. However the success rate is much higher for 1st round QBs. I would never hedge my bets on a 2nd or later round QB.
Hass is a good one, I suppose, he has been successful.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:06 AM
- evil
- Veteran
- Posts: 45,772
Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
Hunh ?
Brohm under McCarthy in GB (offensive minded) Now under Gailey (offensive minded) but did have Jauron/Fewell in 2009 (defensive minded).
T-Jack had Childress in Minny (offensive minded)
Pat White & Chad Henne had Sparano (offensive minded). Beck had Cam Cameron (offensive minded) & Sparano.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:08 AM
- ninerlifer
- Veteran
- Posts: 17,228
Originally posted by TX9R:Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
Kolb hasn't proven to be an utter failure yet either, he's had some phenomenal games at times. Again look at the situations, most any QB good enough to get drafted has the physical ability to succeed, the majority end up in a poor situation.
Yeah, no he is far from a utter failure, he has shown what he can do at times. But he has been far from being successful too.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:11 AM
- TheRickestRick
- Veteran
- Posts: 10,381
Another example of their BS writings... their mock draft.
"7. San Francisco 49ers —Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Bowers' draft stock has allegedly fallen in the face of questions about his torn meniscus, but after spending time with him in L.A. this last week and watching him go through full workouts and pull off a 9-foot-6 broad jump, I'm thinking that people might want to update their updates. As a pure player, Bowers could be both the pass rusher and dominant outside run-stopper the 49ers have been trying to draft for years. Bowers flashes good rush speed inside or out, and he absolutely envelops the ballcarriers in his way. Put him around Aubrayo Franklin(notes) in San Francisco's multiple fronts, and Bowers has the potential to be an outstanding all-around defender."
A) DE is not a position of need, this would be a luxury pick... pretty sure we would trade back and take Jordan if we wanted a DE.
B) "Put him around Franklin..." that would mean the Niners didn't draft him since Franklin most likely won't be around next year.
C) In this mock both Peterson and Prince are still available at the time of our pick... Even if you don't pay attention to the Niners... Any stat sheet will shows we can stop the run but not the pass. So why would we be taking a DE, over two of the top physically talented corners to come out of the draft in the past couple years?
Yahoo, while entertaining at times... should not be taken seriously as an intelligent source of information for any west coast teams.
"7. San Francisco 49ers —Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Bowers' draft stock has allegedly fallen in the face of questions about his torn meniscus, but after spending time with him in L.A. this last week and watching him go through full workouts and pull off a 9-foot-6 broad jump, I'm thinking that people might want to update their updates. As a pure player, Bowers could be both the pass rusher and dominant outside run-stopper the 49ers have been trying to draft for years. Bowers flashes good rush speed inside or out, and he absolutely envelops the ballcarriers in his way. Put him around Aubrayo Franklin(notes) in San Francisco's multiple fronts, and Bowers has the potential to be an outstanding all-around defender."
A) DE is not a position of need, this would be a luxury pick... pretty sure we would trade back and take Jordan if we wanted a DE.
B) "Put him around Franklin..." that would mean the Niners didn't draft him since Franklin most likely won't be around next year.
C) In this mock both Peterson and Prince are still available at the time of our pick... Even if you don't pay attention to the Niners... Any stat sheet will shows we can stop the run but not the pass. So why would we be taking a DE, over two of the top physically talented corners to come out of the draft in the past couple years?
Yahoo, while entertaining at times... should not be taken seriously as an intelligent source of information for any west coast teams.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM
- TheRickestRick
- Veteran
- Posts: 10,381
Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:Originally posted by ninerlifer:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
I wouldnt say Kolb panned out. Besides being a highly touted protege that Reid is pumping him up to be, he really hasnt done much, besides loose the QB gig to Vick.
2-7 round QBs dont have a high success rate other than Brees and Brady, and Romo I would throw him in as well.
Kolb hasn't proven to be an utter failure yet either, he's had some phenomenal games at times. Again look at the situations, most any QB good enough to get drafted has the physical ability to succeed, the majority end up in a poor situation.
Yeah, no he is far from a utter failure, he has shown what he can do at times. But he has been far from being successful too.
I would argue that Kolb panned out pretty well for the team that has DRAFTED him. He's won games as a back-up, and as I mentioned before... the eagles are about to get a 1st round pick for him, not too shabby. He was a luxury pick and was never counted on to be a franchise saver. I think any team in the league with an established QB and at the time a playoff team, would be ecstatic to draft a QB in the 2nd round... have him win some games in back-up duty and then trade him for a 1st round pick before they have to dump his contract.
That's a successful pick.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:21 AM
- Kolohe
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 59,829
You can pretty much say that for every QB drafted in every round. When really its about doing your homework, researching if that particular QB fits into your offensive system. Most times they often don't, but that doesn't mean they can't fit into someone else' system. For instance look at Drew Brees, very inconsistent in San Diego, with New Orleans in Sean Payton has made him into a top 5 QB.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:22 AM
- TX9R
- Veteran
- Posts: 8,348
Originally posted by KRS-1:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
Hunh ?
Brohm under McCarthy in GB (offensive minded) Now under Gailey (offensive minded) but did have Jauron/Fewell in 2009 (defensive minded).
T-Jack had Childress in Minny (offensive minded)
Pat White & Chad Henne had Sparano (offensive minded). Beck had Cam Cameron (offensive minded) & Sparano.
Those Miami teams were built by Parcells. Regardless of coach, he's always had a defense first philosophy. I already mentioned the first 2?
As far as Yahoo, I was simply using them as a reference list of the guys drafted, not the analysis.
Also no one is hedging their bets on a 2nd rounder, but when it shakes out we may not have a choice based on value and availability. The labor situation and having no QBs ( I expect Carr to be cut) basically forces us to take one or more QBs.
Apr 1, 2011 at 10:45 AM
- evil
- Veteran
- Posts: 45,772
Originally posted by TX9R:Originally posted by KRS-1:Originally posted by TX9R:
I posted this in another thread, thought it would get more discussion on it's own
I think the whole 2nd round QB failure argument is flawed. If you look at the list http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AgWp.n9iL7hAtSoyIbsTmJJDubYF?slug=pfw-20110331_use_caution_when_drafting_a_second_round_quarterba
the vast majority were put in terrible situations un defenisive minded HCs, 3 of which were Miami. 2, other than Brees, got a favorable situation and flamed: Brohm and TJackson in minny.
The value of a second rounder should be that lack of pressure to start immediately, to have the talent base to succeed but allowed to sit and develop. Kolb and Brees got that luxury and panned out. So 50% of these guys in favorable situations ended up OK. I think we have a favorable situation with talent and an offensive minded coach and honestly that any of the QBs available in that range would do well, for us.
Hunh ?
Brohm under McCarthy in GB (offensive minded) Now under Gailey (offensive minded) but did have Jauron/Fewell in 2009 (defensive minded).
T-Jack had Childress in Minny (offensive minded)
Pat White & Chad Henne had Sparano (offensive minded). Beck had Cam Cameron (offensive minded) & Sparano.
Those Miami teams were built by Parcells. Regardless of coach, he's always had a defense first philosophy. I already mentioned the first 2?
As far as Yahoo, I was simply using them as a reference list of the guys drafted, not the analysis.
Also no one is hedging their bets on a 2nd rounder, but when it shakes out we may not have a choice based on value and availability. The labor situation and having no QBs ( I expect Carr to be cut) basically forces us to take one or more QBs.
Beck is from the Mueller/Cameron regime, White/Henne from Parcells.
Parcells may have been spearheading the building of those Dolphins but it was his coaches who worked with and developed those QB's and both Henning and Sparano have experience with Parcells from before Miami. This shows what he thinks of those coaches and I'd bet they had input on the QB's in those classes and who would best fit what they wanted to do.
Any of those 2nd round QB's regardless of whether the HC was offensive or defensive minded were developed by offensive coaches. So it doesn't matter what the HC's background is when drafting a QB...Manning, Brady now Bradford all have or had a defensive minded coach when they were drafted. 2nd round success stories like Schaub, Plummer and Brees all were drafted by teams with defensive minded coaches at the time and all had some degree of success before moving on to new teams with an offensive minded Head Coach.
The QB's listed by Yahoo did not fall into bad situations really because none were expected to start from day 1. Those kids for the most part had the chance to come in sit and learn. Scott Wright at DC posted a similar article a few years ago and the success rate of 2nd/3rd round QB's is much less than 1st round QB's.
Unfortunately we may be forced to take on those slimmer chances because of value and availability like you said but the chances are definitely smaller by past comparisons. Doesn't mean the past will continue to play out but it is a noticeable trend.
[ Edited by KRS-1 on Apr 1, 2011 at 10:50:42 ]
Apr 1, 2011 at 11:11 AM
- lamontb
- Veteran
- Posts: 30,016
Just b/c you have a defensive minded coach doens't mean you shouldn't be a productive qb. Yes some guys are put in bad situations but you need to work your way out of that situation and make it better.
Apr 1, 2011 at 12:26 PM
- WildBill
- Veteran
- Posts: 6,100
Walsh said the hardest position to eveluate and coach is the QB. He also once said, he was always looking to draft a QB.
He may not have drafted any late, but he was always looking. Then again many GMs take this philosophy. Even if they have a QB that is in their prime, cause you always want someone capable to be a replacement should the need arise, to enventually replace of trade for a high pick like the Pats did and the eagles want to do.
The thing people are discounting is that we can get our QB with old veterans like Bulger and Hasslebeck and be successful. Warner, Plunkett, Brees (yeah I know he is not that old when he hitched with N.O.), Rob Johnson, Doug Williams, Brett Farve, I could go on.
Also, personally, I don't care for Kolb, but just because a QB hasn't had success and is raw, they could end up being like Steve Young.
He may not have drafted any late, but he was always looking. Then again many GMs take this philosophy. Even if they have a QB that is in their prime, cause you always want someone capable to be a replacement should the need arise, to enventually replace of trade for a high pick like the Pats did and the eagles want to do.
The thing people are discounting is that we can get our QB with old veterans like Bulger and Hasslebeck and be successful. Warner, Plunkett, Brees (yeah I know he is not that old when he hitched with N.O.), Rob Johnson, Doug Williams, Brett Farve, I could go on.
Also, personally, I don't care for Kolb, but just because a QB hasn't had success and is raw, they could end up being like Steve Young.
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