Originally posted by Kolohe:Updating the NFL Draft Trade Value ChartOriginally posted by Travisty13:
1. Kolb sucks.
2. The draft value chart is not actually used by NFL teams. Its an out of date, pointless chart.
3. I'm glad you are not our GM
And you know this, how???
Quote:The bold mainly says "The TVC is out of date. The value it says a pick is, doesn't equal it's true value".
First, the economics of draft picks has changed drastically over the years. The value of picks at the top of the drafts have diminished as the salary cap costs have risen.
For example, the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft, Jake Long, received a contract making him one of the highest paid offensive tackles without ever playing a down. The salary cap era also increased the value of the later round picks as well because those players are less expensive than veterans.
Secondly, the players at the top of the draft only hold a lofty value if the players available in those slots are worth the value.
The TVC is just a guideline. It's not gospel. For example last year. To move up from the 13th pick to #11, we traded our 5th Rd. pick #113 for (TVC value:68) to move up, which is a TVC difference of 100 points. So the real value, determined by Denver, to be 68 points. But according to the "TVC" we should have probably given them our #113, #224 pick (valued:2;Phillip Adams) and either/or #173 (valued:22.8;Anthony Dixon) or #182 (valued 18.6;Nate Byham).
So that means the TVC is off. Ironically, Phillip Adams, pick #224 is the lowest and last value of TVC at a value of 2. So how much is George Selvie, picked 2 picks later, valued? Comp. picks have thrown this chart off.
Understanding True Trade Value
Quote:Trading for a draft pick is a sellers market. Economics 101, price is reflective of supply and demand. Saying the #7 pick is worth 1500 points, is just a guideline. Not a reflection of it's true value. So saying we can put together picks of #7, #45, and #76, and we will get the eagles #23, #54, #85 and Kevin Kolb. Our 3 picks equal 2160, the Eagles 3 picks equal 1285. A difference of 875 points, according to the TVC. That would give Kevin Kolb a value of 875 points or equivalent of the #19 pick.
Myth 3: "The Trade Value Chart"
One of the dumbest things that I have ever seen in regards to the draft is the Trade Value Chart (TVC). If you don't know about it is essentially a chart of values for each pick in the draft that was invented by Jimmy Johnson a while ago. Essentially if you want to trade for the 8th overall pick (which is worth 1,400 points) then you will have to accumulate enough combination of draft picks/player to hit 1,400. So if you are picking 20th and want to move to 8th you have to theoretically pay with your 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks to equal 1,400. When was the last time that you heard about a team trading their 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders to move up that high? There is a reason, and that is because it is ridiculous.
But again, if he's viewed by another team at more value (lets say the Cardinals), and they trade the #5 pick for Kolb, that would value him at 1700. Therefore you can't make an argue including players/picks into a trade and say it'll work because of the TVC says so.
Taking what TexasNiner says:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Also, you can't just add the "chart value" of the moves up and think the total is equal to a pick of that "value".
That would be like you telling me you want $100 to sell something and I offer you $30 cash, a baseball card worth $50 and a coupon that saves you $20. Sure, there might be $100 of "value" there, but it's not the same as $100.
Again its about supply and demand. The Eagles hold the cards when determining the value of Kolb. Not us, "the buyers". So therefore the TVC is pointless in this.
FYI: Sorry for the loooooonnng post.
[ Edited by Travisty13 on Mar 19, 2011 at 01:37:13 ]