Where do all the qbs go?

Ok so this isn't a thread to debate which qb is better and which ones suck or who you think will be a bust. This is about the possibility of 7 quarterbacks going in the first two rounds. Walterfootball.com has a new mock in which this happens

Whether you agree with who picks these guys, I think we all can agree Newton and Gabbert are locks to go in the first round
Cam Newton #1 Panthers
Blaine Gabbert #7 49ers


And then the second round QB run!
Colin Kaepernick #34 - Bills
Christian Ponder #35 Bengals
Ryan Mallett #39 Titans
Andy Dalton#41 Redskins
Jake Locker #43 Vikings


This is just crazy to me! But they basically have ever qb needy team attempt to solve their problem. With a lockout I guess it's more likely.

Last year I believe only 3 qbs went in the first two rounds (Bradford, Tebow, Clausen)

So what do you guys think, are 7 qbs going to be off the board by the time the third round starts?

Very easily.

The top of the second round is filled with quarterback starved teams; all picking before us. Unless we really love Gabbert, we are certainly in a horrible position in the draft to get a quarterback.

We all talk about grabbing Ponder, or Kaepernick etc, with our second round pick, well guess what? There are a bucket load of teams in front of us, thinking the exact same thing.

I don't know if there will be a run on quarterbacks, one after the other like that. Because most teams will have one, maybe two quarterbacks on their radar, and try to go after them, but if they are no longer there, I doubt they will just grab someone if they don't love them.
Its not like DB's where you just take the next best guy.

[ Edited by BrianGO on Mar 15, 2011 at 19:40:05 ]

Originally posted by BrianGO:
Very easily.

The top of the second round is filled with quarterback starved teams; all picking before us. Unless we really love Gabbert, we are certainly in a horrible position in the draft to get a quarterback.

We all talk about grabbing Ponder, or Kaepernick etc, with our second round pick, well guess what? There are a bucket load of teams in front of us, thinking the exact same thing.

I don't know if there will be a run on quarterbacks, one after the other like that. Because most teams will have one, maybe two quarterbacks on their radar, and try to go after them, but if they are no longer there, I doubt they will just grab someone if they don't love them.
Its not like DB's where you just take the next best guy.

Don't worry Luck has already informed Harbaugh he'll be coming out in the supplemental draft and declaring to all that he will sit the year/play in Canada unless he goes to the 49ers

Do you also have a stock tip that far into the future?

All seven should be gone by the 65th pick. Just too many QB-starved teams, and with the uncertainty of who will be available in free agency, it forces teams to ensure they have a young QB on their roster

I don't see it happening.

I understand why some people are forecasting it, and the lockout and lack of FA/trades is certainly new twist.

But the bottom line is that it just never happens. And eventually there will be an off-season, so teams shouldn't draft like there won't be one.

As I showed in detail in this thead, the most QBs that have been taken since the 2000 draft in the first two rounds combined is 5.

The average is 3.6. So, 3 maybe 4 is all that should be expected.

I just don't see anything good enough about this crop of signal callers to make NFL owners, GMs, and coaches buck such a consistent trend of NOT reaching for QBs and selecting BPA instead.

I think the opposite will happen, and much like people were shocked to see Claussen and McCoy fall last year, and like we see QBs slide every year, the real value will be in the 3rd or even 4th rounds as some of these players slip for whatever pre-draft reasons pop up.

Bad pro-days, interviews, size/injury concerns...etc... Something will cause at least 2-3 of this "top 7" to go outside of the first two rounds.

If that many QB's go in the top of the 2nd, there will be some fantastic players that fall to the Niners.

Also, IMHO, the Niners can't really count on any of these rookie QB's to lead their team this year anyway. They used a #1 overall pick on a rookie QB, and then watched him get beat into the ground. I realize that the overall talent of the Oline is much better now, but the theory should be the same.

Draft a rookie, and let him sit and develop. Sign or trade for a veteran. Let Carr be the back up (yes, I did just throw up in my mouth a little bit).

I really think we should target Ricky Stanzi in the 4th or 5th and spend our first 3 picks at least on bolstering our d. I think most people agree that none of the qbs in the draft are going to be able to help a team win this year. And on the other hand there's a hell of a lot of talent on defense. With the offseason on hold and the niners having a new coaching staff were already at a disadvantage, it would be a good idea to wait to strengthen our qb situation after the draft our at least not until later in the draft.
If other teams want to draft qbs way before they should and let more talented players drop to us than I'm all for it.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
I don't see it happening.

I understand why some people are forecasting it, and the lockout and lack of FA/trades is certainly new twist.

But the bottom line is that it just never happens. And eventually there will be an off-season, so teams shouldn't draft like there won't be one.

As I showed in detail in this thead, the most QBs that have been taken since the 2000 draft in the first two rounds combined is 5.

The average is 3.6. So, 3 maybe 4 is all that should be expected.

I just don't see anything good enough about this crop of signal callers to make NFL owners, GMs, and coaches buck such a consistent trend of NOT reaching for QBs and selecting BPA instead.

I think the opposite will happen, and much like people were shocked to see Claussen and McCoy fall last year, and like we see QBs slide every year, the real value will be in the 3rd or even 4th rounds as some of these players slip for whatever pre-draft reasons pop up.

Bad pro-days, interviews, size/injury concerns...etc... Something will cause at least 2-3 of this "top 7" to go outside of the first two rounds.

Well said and I agree. If such a scenario happens, it will be quite shocking. We all know there are a lot of QB starved teams, but these same teams have other needs as well and unless a team feels there is a franchise QB there in the 2nd round that was missed by other teams in the first round, teams will likely go with the BPA on their board and he won't be a QB.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
I don't see it happening.

I understand why some people are forecasting it, and the lockout and lack of FA/trades is certainly new twist.

But the bottom line is that it just never happens. And eventually there will be an off-season, so teams shouldn't draft like there won't be one.

As I showed in detail in this thead, the most QBs that have been taken since the 2000 draft in the first two rounds combined is 5.

The average is 3.6. So, 3 maybe 4 is all that should be expected.

I just don't see anything good enough about this crop of signal callers to make NFL owners, GMs, and coaches buck such a consistent trend of NOT reaching for QBs and selecting BPA instead.

I think the opposite will happen, and much like people were shocked to see Claussen and McCoy fall last year, and like we see QBs slide every year, the real value will be in the 3rd or even 4th rounds as some of these players slip for whatever pre-draft reasons pop up.

Bad pro-days, interviews, size/injury concerns...etc... Something will cause at least 2-3 of this "top 7" to go outside of the first two rounds.

Great thread by the way. I sure hope you're right, and GM's aren't going to overreact like some of us think they are.

I think we need to trade up to the Patriots pick at the end of the first round (they love them some mid second round picks) and pick Christian Ponder. The guys is perfect for our system, minus the injury concerns

Originally posted by Draftology:
I think we need to trade up to the Patriots pick at the end of the first round (they love them some mid second round picks) and pick Christian Ponder. The guys is perfect for our system, minus the injury concerns

That's what pretty much bugs me about that guy, laundry list of injuries, including a separated shoulder that required surgery. Hes got a lot of potnetial but seems kind of Chad Pennington'ish.

Originally posted by Draftology:
I think we need to trade up to the Patriots pick at the end of the first round (they love them some mid second round picks) and pick Christian Ponder. The guys is perfect for our system, minus the injury concerns

Yeah I agree.

It seems pretty clear we're looking at using our second pick on a QB. And yes, like Texas says, there's a good chance that at least one of the top 7 will be there when we pick in the second.

But I don't want to let all the QB needy teams pick ahead of us and then have to just take whichever guy is left. I want Harbaugh to identify which guy he wants and then I want Baalke to trade up and draft him. If we know which guy we want why risk losing him to another team?

Harbaugh is a smart guy that knows QBs. But we can't assume that he's going to be the only evaluator that ends up liking whoever he ends up liking.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:

Originally posted by Draftology:
I think we need to trade up to the Patriots pick at the end of the first round (they love them some mid second round picks) and pick Christian Ponder. The guys is perfect for our system, minus the injury concerns

Yeah I agree.

It seems pretty clear we're looking at using our second pick on a QB. And yes, like Texas says, there's a good chance that at least one of the top 7 will be there when we pick in the second.

But I don't want to let all the QB needy teams pick ahead of us and then have to just take whichever guy is left. I want Harbaugh to identify which guy he wants and then I want Baalke to trade up and draft him. If we know which guy we want why risk losing him to another team?

Harbaugh is a smart guy that knows QBs. But we can't assume that he's going to be the only evaluator that ends up liking whoever he ends up liking.

One has to assume that the Niners will do this. I have the sense that under Baalke (and with Harbaugh lending input) they will be better now at identifying and maneuvering to get talent than in previous years under McCloughan.

I believe that a combination of trading down with the first pick, accumulating additional picks (if need be to trade up with again) will be the best strategy to achieive the primary objective: The land the QB who they want in this draft. This objective trumps all other considerations.

Outside of a QB there is no single player, elite or not, who will have a profound effect on the fortune of the Niners. Every year we hear the same conversation: "We need to draft so-and-so. He's a beast. QB we can address later". So where has that startegy got us? The Niners are still losers. It's astounding that now, again, people are singing the same old refrain. Look, face it . . . Peterson, Miller, [insert your favorite player here], will not make a significant difference to the fortunes of the Niners going forward. I really care little who we draft first (if it's not a QB) as long as we address the QB problem with the next pick, or whenever. JUST GET IT DONE.

QBing and Coaching; that's what's needed. The Niners have addressed coaching; now fix the QBing.

Among the QBs: It's Harbaugh's call.

But as we are discussing preferences, I like Mallet the best. Best arm. Quick release. Nice footwork. Good pocket presence. Attitude. His teammates look up to him. The only thing he lacks is that he won't be able to run away from anybody. But, then, neither can Brady, or Peyton Manning for that matter.

After Mallet: Stanzi. I donno there's just something about him. Intangibles, among other things, I suppose. I like him just a bit better than Ponder. Maybe I'm swayed a bit by Ponder's proneness to injury.

Important to note that the Niners are showing plenty of interest in Kapearnick. I don't believe that it's a smoke screen. It could only mean that Harbaugh values athleticism very highly. This may disqualify Mallet. Kapearnick appears to have the best combination of athleticism, arm strengh and accuracy. But he has an awful delivery. Can that be coached effectively? I don't know.

cards are gonna rob us this year.

1st, they'll take Peterson, we'll take Akamura
2nd, they'll take Dalton, we'll take Ponder.