Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
There are a few scenarios:
- The one you outlined is very possible, with a Mario Williams rising to the top;
- Stanford loses too much talent in terms of players and coaches, and Luck has a so-so year;
- Another QB outshines Mr. Luck during the 2011 season;
- Hate to say it, but he could get injured and his draft stock falls.
A lot of things can happen between now and then. Remember, Locker was a lock to go #1; will Andrew's luck run out?
Andrew Luck is a rare talent and a crazy type prospect at the biggest position in the game. Locker could've been #1 in a weak QB draft and he was never close to Luck in terms of skill set. Locker had the intangibles and a decent year but Luck had almost no negatives at all. Great accuracy, good arm, good athlete, great leadership, smart, played in a pro offense.
Luck has proven to be great already, if he has a so so year it will not hurt his draft stock for the same reason you mentioned - lots of people left. That's also a big IF given the guys talent.
I don't see any other QB outshining him. And even if they do what they do in college doesn't drive them as prospects. He has a proven track record as a terrific player. That's not going to be overshadowed by some 1 year wonder.
If he gets injured, just look at Sam Bradford.
Is there a chance he's not #1 overall next year? Yea sure but it's definitely not 50% or more. I'd say the only reason he wouldn't go #1 is if another team with a young promising QB picked #1 but it's pretty rare for that to happen.
I mean don't get me wrong, I'd love to be wrong and have Luck slide to us somehow. Holy hell would I be dancing for joy. That's part of the reason why I hope we don't draft QB in the first round this year(you just don't go QB in the first 2 years in a row) if you take a guy in the 2nd round you can do that for a talent like Luck.