Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:Originally posted by TexasNiner:Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
I put this in the Christian Ponder Bandwagon Thread, but perhaps it's more relevant in this thread.
But what's to say it would be "over drafting" or reaching? If he was considered a top 10 prospect heading into the 2010 college football season, is 100% healthy now, was the Sr. Bowl MVP, dominated the combine, and fits YOUR WCO system perfectly, WHY not take him? If you feel he is a FRANCHISE qb, you DO NOT pass on him. Especially considering you have NO IDEA what other teams think of him. What if Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle ALL really like him. They very well could. Are you telling me you're gonna risk passing on a guy you feel is a FRANCHISE qb?
If you are talking about using a later round pick to jump a few spots, then no, it isn't reaching.
If you are talking about drafting someone a round or more early, then yes, it is.
Because your goal is to build the best team possible. You do that by getting as much talent as possible. If you can get the player you want later AND another player who you couldn't have gotten later who has a chance to improve your club, then that is the strategy you take.
And you can never pin your hopes on ANY one player, regardless of position. Even if you think you are going to "reach" for someone in the second, who is rated as a third rounder, someone could get him in the first, or with a higher second. If you lose out on a player, you lose out. The draft is a crapshoot that way. Both in terms of what other teams do and whether or not you are right about your evaluations.
So, in order to have the best chance to bring in players who can help your team, you are better served to let the draft come to you.
Jumping in front of a few teams (like we did to get Rice) is one thing, but trading away your draft or reaching for a player only you like that much (ala Ricky Williams or Glen Coffee) rarely works out well.
You have NO IDEA if he will be available later. That's my point. What if you feel Ponder is your Franchise qb? Is he not the "best chance to bring in a player who can help your team"? Did Tampa let Josh Freeman come to them? No. They identified he was their man. Their franchise qb. And they drafted him way earlier than MOST teams would have ever thought of doing. Worked out pretty well, no?
You are stuck on this "Ponder or Bust" concept. Odds are that Ponder will be available when we draft in the second, and possibly even in the third. Depending how the next two months play out.
There are always specific examples of the exception. But Freeman is a poor example. Tampa Bay only gave up a 6th rounder to move up two spots to select him and they had to take him in the first because they had no second rounder. They had previously traded it to get Kellen Winslow.
Right now there are as many questions and concerns about all the QBs in this draft as there are answers. With Ponder it's injuries, size and durability.
(Remind you of another QB who slipped to the third for a Stanford turned 49ers coach to draft?)
You say I have "NO IDEA" if he'll be available. To a certain degree that's true, just as you have "No IDEA" that he won't be. Some team could fall in love with him (or any player) and pull a Miami/Ted Ginn and take him super early. Or he could fall to the 5th. Anything CAN happen.
But the point is, history shows we are better served letting the draft come to us, maybe even jumping up a few spots, then we are trying to sacrifice the future to secure another early pick or way over drafting someone.
But this is just about Ponder, that's your bag. This is about ANY QB. Time will tell what, if any, QB Harbaugh really likes and whether we have the opportunity to draft him based on moves made or not and players drafted or passed on.
All you have to do is look to last year though. Colt McCoy was rated as high or significantly higher than any QB in this class other than Newton and Gabbert and he lasted until the middle of the 3rd round.
He was ranked similarly to Locker/Mallett, with Ponder, Stanzi, Dalton and Kaepernick receiving much lower grades.
After as strong combine, could Ponder move up some and Locker or Mallett fall a little, sure. But in any case, odds are that not more than the top two QBs will go in the first, 2, maybe 3, at most, will go in the second, and some good talent will slip to the third.
Who exactly goes where? Time will tell? Which guy does Harbaugh like? We'll see.
But regardless of the details, we don't need to give up the future to get a QB. Assuming we don't go with Newton or Gabbert in the first, which seems likely, we will have the opportunity in the second or third to likely get whichever guy we want without giving up the farm.
He'll either be there at our pick, or we can just jump a few spots. We don't need to overreach or give away needed draft picks.