We do NOT need to reach for a QB

I've posted this idea in other threads, but wanted to show the facts.

Regardless of which prospect it is, there are constant claims that we NEED to move up to get (insert your favorite QB here) because he will never make it past (insert a round about his current grade here).

That just isn't true, it is FAR more likely for QBs to fall than for there to be a run that forces us to move up.

Here is a breakdown of the total number of QBs taken in the first or second round since 2000:

Year R1 R2 Total
2010 2 1 3
2009 3 1 4
2008 2 2 4
2007 2 3 5
2006 3 2 5
2005 3 0 3
2004 4 0 4
2003 4 0 4
2002 3 0 3
2001 1 3 4
2000 1 0 1

As you can see, not once have more than 5 total QBs been taken in the top two rounds and only twice have more than 3 been taken in the first round. Of note, both years that happened, ZERO QBs were taken in round 2.

The average over that time is 3.6, which we can round up to 4 QBs taken in BOTH the first and second rounds combined.

This year there are two QBs with consensus 1st round grades.

And 2 maybe 3 others with a shot at being selected in the first round who are more likely to be second rounders at best.

Based on history, those 5, if that many, are likely all who will go in the first two rounds. One of those guys might even slip to the 3rd.

And 2-3 others who could maybe go in the second, but are probably third rounders at best. If one of these guys goes in the 2nd, probably someone else slips and everyone else is available in the 3rd, some probably in the 4th.

No more than 5 (at most) of the top 6-8 QBs will be selected in the first two rounds and it's doubtful more than 2 (3 at the most), go in round 1.

So, regardless of if you think we need to move up into the first, second, or whatever for whichever QB you fancy, odds are, he actually falls to his slotted round or later.

Unless this year has an unprecedented run on QBs, and that's highly unlikely given that this QB class has questions marks from top to bottom, more QBs will fall out of the first two rounds than are selected in them.

You're right. I see Christian Ponder and a few other guys there for the Niners second round pick. Ryan Mallet and Jake Locker could even drop to the second. No, I think if Patrick Peterson is there at number seven, they absolutely have to take him.

Great thread. It all really depends on what Harbaugh wants IMO. Whoever he selects I will happily roll with, until the QB proves him wrong. No head coach in the NFL has a better handle on this year's incoming QB class.

My only concern, is a lot of teams above the 9ers also need a QB and take Harbaugh's guy. But I hope they just stick to their draft board if they decide to trade up.

This draft is unique though.

I don't know if i've ever seen a draft with so many teams in need of a qb AND a draft with so many 2nd tier qb's. Heck, a case could be made that Newton and Gabbert are 2nd tier qb's in NFL team's eyes.

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
This draft is unique though.

I don't know if i've ever seen a draft with so many teams in need of a qb AND a draft with so many 2nd tier qb's. Heck, a case could be made that Newton and Gabbert are 2nd tier qb's in NFL team's eyes.

It's not that unique. There are always plenty of teams who could use a QB upgrade.

History show though, that unless teams are sold on a QB, they will pass for the players they have ranked higher on their draft board.

Sure someone will get selected early (ala Tebow last year) and someone will slip (ala McCoy). But overall, it's highly unlikely more than a couple QBs are taken in either the first two rounds, so if we are patient, someone will be there for us.

And even if we want to move up to get a specific player, it shouldn't take more than leapfrogging a few teams in the second or third round to make sure we get our man.

And with 2 4ths (one of which would be plenty to move up enough to the top of the second) and 2 6th (one of which would be plenty to move up to the top of the 3rd), we can wait on our QB to come to us and just make a minor move if we feel it's necessary.

We certainly don't need to sacrifice significant draft picks this year or next to move up a round for a QB.

Here is the deal. I agree with your assessment if we are playing fantasy football. In fact, this is exactly how I prepare for my drafts. I look at how many players from a particular position have been drafted by each round and can figure out who will be available this year based on projections and draft trends (clearly, we take our league very seriously).

However, the NFL is different. if there is a prospect you are confident about, then you go and get them (especially if it is a qb). I don't think you should have the mindset that, "there are 3 qbs with about the same grade so we are definitely going to get one of them." Which is essentially what you are suggesting. If, for instance, Ponder is a guy Niners brass really like, then jump and and grab him.

Originally posted by YouGotGored:
Here is the deal. I agree with your assessment if we are playing fantasy football. In fact, this is exactly how I prepare for my drafts. I look at how many players from a particular position have been drafted by each round and can figure out who will be available this year based on projections and draft trends (clearly, we take our league very seriously).

However, the NFL is different. if there is a prospect you are confident about, then you go and get them (especially if it is a qb). I don't think you should have the mindset that, "there are 3 qbs with about the same grade so we are definitely going to get one of them." Which is essentially what you are suggesting. If, for instance, Ponder is a guy Niners brass really like, then jump and and grab him.

I agree if we are jumping up a few spots to make sure he doesn't get grabbed right before us. However, there is no need to jump rounds. History shows there will not be a major QB run. We can have our cake and eat it too.

We don't need to panic and pull an Al Davis and draft someone way too early because we have a hard on for them.

You are pretty much right. But what it comes down to though is if you believe (insert QB here) is the franchise QB you grab him at #7. We won't know till draft day, Harbaugh already said he doesn't want to tip his hand.

QBs I would take in round 1:
Mallet
Newton (not us but another team)
Gabbert

QBs I would take in rd 2:
Ponder
Dalton
Kaepatrick (misspelled and too lazy to look name up)
Stanzi

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
This draft is unique though.

I don't know if i've ever seen a draft with so many teams in need of a qb AND a draft with so many 2nd tier qb's. Heck, a case could be made that Newton and Gabbert are 2nd tier qb's in NFL team's eyes.

I trust in Mike Mayock ... who believes that Gabbert is a franchise QB (the only one in this draft). So, if he's available at 7 and the 49ers draft him, I personally wouldn't consider it a reach. But odds are Gabbert will be gone before we pick, which benefits us greatly in drafting from a very deep and talented pool of defensive players.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
I've posted this idea in other threads, but wanted to show the facts.

Regardless of which prospect it is, there are constant claims that we NEED to move up to get (insert your favorite QB here) because he will never make it past (insert a round about his current grade here).

That just isn't true, it is FAR more likely for QBs to fall than for there to be a run that forces us to move up.

Here is a breakdown of the total number of QBs taken in the first or second round since 2000:

Year R1 R2 Total
2010 2 1 3
2009 3 1 4
2008 2 2 4
2007 2 3 5
2006 3 2 5
2005 3 0 3
2004 4 0 4
2003 4 0 4
2002 3 0 3
2001 1 3 4
2000 1 0 1

As you can see, not once have more than 5 total QBs been taken in the top two rounds and only twice have more than 3 been taken in the first round. Of note, both years that happened, ZERO QBs were taken in round 2.

The average over that time is 3.6, which we can round up to 4 QBs taken in BOTH the first and second rounds combined.

This year there are two QBs with consensus 1st round grades.

And 2 maybe 3 others with a shot at being selected in the first round who are more likely to be second rounders at best.

Based on history, those 5, if that many, are likely all who will go in the first two rounds. One of those guys might even slip to the 3rd.

And 2-3 others who could maybe go in the second, but are probably third rounders at best. If one of these guys goes in the 2nd, probably someone else slips and everyone else is available in the 3rd, some probably in the 4th.

No more than 5 (at most) of the top 6-8 QBs will be selected in the first two rounds and it's doubtful more than 2 (3 at the most), go in round 1.

So, regardless of if you think we need to move up into the first, second, or whatever for whichever QB you fancy, odds are, he actually falls to his slotted round or later.

Unless this year has an unprecedented run on QBs, and that's highly unlikely given that this QB class has questions marks from top to bottom, more QBs will fall out of the first two rounds than are selected in them.

Fantastic analysis. It would also be nice to see how many of those drafted have turned out to be good QBs, good backups, or even perhaps out of the NFL.

I could see this year's draft as a statistical exception due to the CBA issue, but I don't have any evidence to support that.

Mallett has a head full of junk, but I still think he's easily the best passer of this group. I think he'll mature in the pros if he's held on a tight leash (Harbaugh will certainly do that). If he's there's in the 2nd, I think he'd be a steal.

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
This draft is unique though.

I don't know if i've ever seen a draft with so many teams in need of a qb AND a draft with so many 2nd tier qb's. Heck, a case could be made that Newton and Gabbert are 2nd tier qb's in NFL team's eyes.

I trust in Mike Mayock ... who believes that Gabbert is a franchise QB (the only one in this draft). So, if he's available at 7 and the 49ers draft him, I personally wouldn't consider it a reach. But odds are Gabbert will be gone before we pick, which benefits us greatly in drafting from a very deep and talented pool of defensive players.

I think if there's a lockout we go defensive with the first pick. When they get their act together we'll sign a vet qb or trade for one.
i trust mayock to though. he's on point. he'd tear kiper up a new one

We dont need to reach for a QB, but what I'm afraid of is drafting the wrong player due to over trading back.. it would make me sick once more if this is another Rashaun Woods or Antwan Balmer all over again...

Originally posted by 9moon:
We dont need to reach for a QB, but what I'm afraid of is drafting the wrong player due to over trading back.. it would make me sick once more if this is another Rashaun Woods or Antwan Balmer all over again...

Kentwan

You're right, out of the top 7 or 8 QBs there's bound to be at least one available in the third round.

But do you really want the 6th best QB?

Other than Romo and Brady all the franchise QBs in the league were among the top 5 QBs taken in their year. Even guys like Brees and Kolb, who were second round picks, were still like the third QB taken in their year.

I'm fine with not taking a QB in the first. But past the second round I just don't think you're going to get a franchise guy. If you're lucky, you end up with someone like Kyle Orton. But then you've just got a guy that's too good to cut and not good enough to win a superbowl.

I hear what you're saying with this thread, but I just don't think QB is the position you try to get a deal on. That's like trying to get a good bargain on a replacement heart. There's some things that are so important you have to just spend what it takes to get the best available.