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1) Carolina Panthers
AJ Green, WR , Georgia
There are some character concerns with Nick Fairley and Dareus is not a 1st overall pick. There is no qb worth this pick, too, so the Panthers need to take a player who can be an offensive weapon for Clausen, or another qb they take later.
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2) Denver Broncos
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Jon Elway has made resigning Bailey a priority, else this pick could be Peterson. With safety being another position where Denver needs help, Peterson could still be the pick, but i think, in this scenario, the Broncos select Nick Fairley, who should really excel in their new 4-3 defense.
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3) Buffalo Bills
Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina
Their top need is an ot, but nobody is worth a pick this high this year. A nose tackle is no option with Fairley gone the pick before. The leaves a pass rusher as the next biggest need. If they were in a 4-3, this pick would be Bowers. But we are talking about a 3-4 and so the pick is Von Miller or Robert Quinn. I think Quinn will tear up the combine and will be the 1st 3-4 linebacker this year.
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4) Cincinatti Bengals
Daquan Bowers, DE, Clemson
The two biggest needs are CB and a pass rusher. This was a hard decision between Peterson and Bowers. The Bengals have a real problem getting to the qb, even with a good rookie season by Carlos Dunlap. At cb, Jonathan Joseph has said, that he wants to stay, so the Bengals will find a way to sign him. This make Bowers the pick.
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5) Arizona Cardinals
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
The Cardinals are a real mess at qb. Nobody has shown, that he can be a starter in the nfl. There are some other troubles at olb, so Von Miller could be an option, too, but i think some team will fall in love with Newton, and i think the cards are desperate enought to do so.
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6) Cleveland Browns
Von Miller, OLB/DE , Texas A&M
The top need for the browns is a #1 wr, and Julio Jones is an option. But i think, there will be some good wr talent available in the early 2nd round. The next two big needs are de and olb. Von Miller could play both positions and will be a real pass rushing terror.
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7) San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
There will be somebody running to the podium in this scenario. I thought about Marcel Dareus here, who would be absolutely awesome as an 3-4 end opposite to Justin Smith, but Peterson is just to good on a position of need. And even better : If he is not quick enough to be an elite cb, he will be a pro bowl safety :)
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8) Tennessee Titans
Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
Blaine Gabbert could be the pick here if the Titans somehow manage to get Haynesworth back. If they don't, they need a domininat dt. Dareus would be an dt in their 4-3 and can really generate pressure from this position.
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9) Dallas Cowboys
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Another team, that will run to the podium if this happens. Terence Newman still is a good cb, but he is in the mid 30s and due to a big payday. Amukamara may be the best pure cornerback in the draft so this is a no brainer.
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10) Washington Redskins
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Julio Jones could be the pick, too, but the qb situation in Washington is a real mess. McNabb will be gone when the season starts and nobody else is worth starting. Gabbert seems to be the 1st qb besides Newton on the boards.
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11) Houston Texans
Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue
The Texans move to a 3-4 and remove themselfs of their best pass rushing tread with moving Williams to a 3-4 end. So they need new pass rushers and Ryan Kerrigan is exactly what they need. Aldon Smith could be the pick here, too.
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12) Minnessota Vikings
Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
This pick depends on who the vikings will put the franchise tag on. If the will tag Chad Greenway (what i think would be wise), they could loose Sidney Rice. In this scenario, with Julio Jones falling to #12, this pick is almost sure to happen.
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13) Detroit Lions
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
The lions denied their need for an ot the last few years, so i don't think they will pick on ot this year in a very weak class on this position. Julian Peterson will likely be released because of his down season and huge contract and Zack Follet had a very bad looking injury.
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14) St.Louis Rams
Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, CAL
With Julio Jones gone, the Rams will set their eyes on dline help. Jordan can play opposite to Chris Long on base downs and move inside on passing downs, providing them with a long needed update.
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15) Miami Dolphins
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
The top qbs are not available, Jake Locker would be a reach currently, so the next need is a running back with both Brown and Williams beeing on their way out.
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16) Jacksonville Jaguars
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
This is between Clayborn, Watt and Smith here, with a pass rushing DE missing on the Jaguars roster besides Aaron Kapman, who had two ACL tears in two years and can't be counted on. The decision is on Smith here based on his potential and trend to pick pure pass rushers quite early (see Pierre-Paul last year)
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17 ) New England Patriots (from Oakland)
JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin
There is some work needed on both lines. There are some offensive tackles available later at #28, but a player like Watt has to be taken here. The patriots decide between him and Clayborn and take their Justin Smith clone
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18) San Diego Chargers
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The other option here is a pass rusher, but Clayborn can be both a base end and a pass rusher from this position. I think the chargers will take whoever the Patriots don't take at #17
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19) New York Giants
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
It is time for the 1st offensive tackle. The Giants have a problem at left tackle after a bad season by Willam Beatty. Solder is very good value in the late teens.
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20) Tampa Bay Buccs
Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
The young Buccs team seems to have everything in place in the offense for a long time, but need some pass rusher to pair them with their good young interior linemen.Houston is exactly what they need. A real pass rusher who knows where the way to the qb is.
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21) Kansas City Chiefs
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
There are bigger needs at pass rusher, but there is no pass rusher after Houson beeing gone in this part of the draft. An OT makes a lot of sense, because Brandon Albert has some problems on the left side and Barry Richardson can't pass protect. The knock on Carimi is, that he may be a RT only, but they can try him on the left and move Albert over to the other side.
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22) Indinapolis Colts
Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Another draft, another year the colts need help on both lines. Cameron Heyward would fit the colts offense quite good as an dt, but i think Smith is just to tempting as a new left tackle to pass on him.
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23) Philadelphia Eagles
Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The run on offensive tackles continues. Michael Vick gets killed every week and won't take this beating for a full season, so they need to protect him. So this pick should be Sherrod or Castonzo
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24) New Orleans Saints
Cameron Heyward, DT, Ohio State
The saints need a player on their dline, that can penetrate and get to the qb. Heyward played a lot de in college but should be able to be a very good player in the saints scheme. The other option could be a running back, but there should be a rb available a round later
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25) Seattle Seahawks
Jimmy Smith, CB , Colorado
If the seahawks don't pick Locker here , their biggest need should be a cornerback opposite to Marcus Trufant. Kelly Jennings is a free agent and so the best available corner should be the pick. (Brandon Harris is in the running , too)
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26) Baltimore Ravens
Torey Smith, WR, Maryland
Joe Flacco needs a deep threat at wr, to stretch the field for guys like Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin. Smith is sure handed, can fly and brings value as a return man, too.
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27) Atlanta Falcons
Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
Sam Baker really struggled this year and the Falcons need Matt Ryan to be healthy. They could pick WR like baldwin or a defensive tackle like Liuget, but i think a protected Matt Ryan is reason enough
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28) New England Patriots
Mikkel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
The patriots miss out on the offensive tackle hunt by one pick and decide to address their running back by commitee approach by adding a real #1 back with the versatile guy from Illinois
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29) Chicago Bears
Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
Like the patriots, the bears would have loved to find an ot late in the 1st round, but nobody is left. The interior line is another weakness of the bears and if Mike Pouncey does play half the way his brother does in Pittsburgh, he will be special
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30) New York Jets
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Holmes and Braylon Edwards are both free agents and it will be very expensive to resign both of them. The Jets should opt to bring in competition with the very talented guy. He is a character risk, but Rex Ryan does not really shy away from that.
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31) Pittsburgh Steelers
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
If there is a weak link in the steelers defense, it is their cornerbacks. McFadden really is not very special. With Brandon Harris available this late, he should be a no brainer, especially with Pouncey gone.
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32) Green Bay Packers
Corey Liuget, DE, Illinois
Cullen Jenkins is a free agent, Johnny Jolly had his share of troubles before and so the pack could need a new 3-4 end. Liuget is a dt in the 4-3 and a de in the 3-4.
[ Edited by stever on Feb 19, 2011 at 8:50 AM ]