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4ML's 4Rd. Mock Draft 1.0

I love this draft!

please please
  • sfout
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There is no way Taylor falls all the way to Washington's second rounder. He carries a late first round grade and their are a solid 5+ teams who need a NT this year, minimum. Buffalo could very easily follow their trusty BPA policy and take him with the 34th overall pick and that is if he gets by Pittsburgh, New England or even Atlanta in the first.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by TalkinBoutWILLIS:
id like it but im pretty sure washington doesnt have a 3rd or 4th round pick so they would be kinda shooting themselves in the foot to have 1 pick in the first 4

Exactly what I was about to say. I don't see that trade happening at all b/c the Skins really don't have picks to give up. Plus I think they could stay at 10 and still get a qb they are targeting.

When does Washinton care about draft picks? They had drafts where they have picked only once or twice in the first 4 rounds. I expect them to go out and spend money in the FA (maybe Champ Bailey, DeAngelo Williams and a WR like Vincent Jackson).

Also, they have to worry about the Vikings, the Dolphins, and the Jaguars jumping in front of them and getting their QB, when there are only couple of QBs who are worth a top 15 pick. Then the drop-off is too significant.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by sfout:
There is no way Taylor falls all the way to Washington's second rounder. He carries a late first round grade and their are a solid 5+ teams who need a NT this year, minimum. Buffalo could very easily follow their trusty BPA policy and take him with the 34th overall pick and that is if he gets by Pittsburgh, New England or even Atlanta in the first.

Some people have rated Taylor as a late first rounder, and some have rated him as an early 2nd rounder. We are 3 months off the draft, and at this point - I think it's fair to assume that a guy projected to go in the late 1st - early 2nd could drop 5-10 spots.

Player rankings somewhat change after combine and pro-workouts, so I wouldn't go as far as to say that a player can't fall 5-10 picks.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I love this draft!

please please

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Re-Signings:
1. Baas (long term deal)
2. Goldson (RFA)
3. Spikes (1 yr. deal)
4. Clements restructured and will compete at CB or Safety
5. Franchise Franklin

Lawson is the major FA to leave the team.

FA-Signings:
1. OLB Mathias Kiwanuka - A natural fit in 3-4 defense
2. QB Matt Hasselbeck or Orton

Draft:
Rd. 1

1. Carolina: AJ Green WR - BPA at a position of need.
2. Denver: Patrick Peterson CB - CBs don't go high, but he is one of the best to come out in recent times
3. Buffalo: Von Miller OLB - They need pass-rushers for their 3-4 Defense
4. Cincy: Nick Fairly DT - Their DL needs upgrades
5. Arizona: Marcell Dareus DT - Need to shore up that Dline.
6. Cleveland: Julio Jones WR - They need weapons for Colt McCoy
7. Washington (via 49ers): Blaine Gabberts QB - trade 1st and 2nd rounder to move up in front of Titans to get their Franchise QB
8. Titans: Da'Quan Bowers DE - They were ready to draft Gabberts, but need a DE as well. They are excited to see Bowers drop.
9. Dallas: Cameron Jordan DE - They sign a top CB in FA and fill a need at DE
10. 49ers (via Washington): Robert Quinn OLB - They trade down and get their man while picking up a early 2nd rounder

Rd. 2
49ers (via Wash): Phil Taylor NT - We need to find Franklin's future replacement.
49ers: Aaron Williams CB - Will replace Clements sooner or later.
49ers (trade up) - Colin Kaepernick QB - 49ers move up by giving up a 3rd & 4th rounder to move to the end of rd. 2 to draft Franchise QB who will be ready in 2012.

Rd. 4
49ers: Owen Marecic FB - Stanford connection

Rest of the draft may fulfill the need of RB, WR, and DB


Recap:


OLBs - Kiwanuka & Quinn
QB - Hasselbeck/Orton for 2011, Kaepernick to start in 2012
CB - Clement will eventually move to FS (compete with Goldson) or be cut, depending on our drafting pick Aaron Williams and Goldson
FB - Finally added a smash-mouth FB
DL - Added a potential NT starter who can contribute at DE as well

Washington is stupid but not that stupid. They wont give up a 1 and a 2 to move up 3 spots.

As for your picks in the top 10 I dont see one that will actually fall the way you say they will. Fairley is going first - you can bank that. Here will be the top 10:

1) Carolina Fairley
2) Denver Bowers
3) Buffalo Peterson
4) Cincy Green
5) Arizona Miller (or Quinn)
6) Cleveland Darius
7) SF Quinn (or Miller)
8) Tenn Gabbert
9) Dall Prince
10) Wash Newton

Quinn, Taylor, and Williams as our first 3. Now that would be something. It wont happen but it would be quite a haul.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Re-Signings:
1. Baas (long term deal)
2. Goldson (RFA)
3. Spikes (1 yr. deal)
4. Clements restructured and will compete at CB or Safety
5. Franchise Franklin

Lawson is the major FA to leave the team.

FA-Signings:
1. OLB Mathias Kiwanuka - A natural fit in 3-4 defense
2. QB Matt Hasselbeck or Orton

Draft:
Rd. 1

1. Carolina: AJ Green WR - BPA at a position of need.
2. Denver: Patrick Peterson CB - CBs don't go high, but he is one of the best to come out in recent times
3. Buffalo: Von Miller OLB - They need pass-rushers for their 3-4 Defense
4. Cincy: Nick Fairly DT - Their DL needs upgrades
5. Arizona: Marcell Dareus DT - Need to shore up that Dline.
6. Cleveland: Julio Jones WR - They need weapons for Colt McCoy
7. Washington (via 49ers): Blaine Gabberts QB - trade 1st and 2nd rounder to move up in front of Titans to get their Franchise QB
8. Titans: Da'Quan Bowers DE - They were ready to draft Gabberts, but need a DE as well. They are excited to see Bowers drop.
9. Dallas: Cameron Jordan DE - They sign a top CB in FA and fill a need at DE
10. 49ers (via Washington): Robert Quinn OLB - They trade down and get their man while picking up a early 2nd rounder

Rd. 2
49ers (via Wash): Phil Taylor NT - We need to find Franklin's future replacement.
49ers: Aaron Williams CB - Will replace Clements sooner or later.
49ers (trade up) - Colin Kaepernick QB - 49ers move up by giving up a 3rd & 4th rounder to move to the end of rd. 2 to draft Franchise QB who will be ready in 2012.

Rd. 4
49ers: Owen Marecic FB - Stanford connection

Rest of the draft may fulfill the need of RB, WR, and DB


Recap:


OLBs - Kiwanuka & Quinn
QB - Hasselbeck/Orton for 2011, Kaepernick to start in 2012
CB - Clement will eventually move to FS (compete with Goldson) or be cut, depending on our drafting pick Aaron Williams and Goldson
FB - Finally added a smash-mouth FB
DL - Added a potential NT starter who can contribute at DE as well

Washington is stupid but not that stupid. They wont give up a 1 and a 2 to move up 3 spots.

As for your picks in the top 10 I dont see one that will actually fall the way you say they will. Fairley is going first - you can bank that. Here will be the top 10:

1) Carolina Fairley
2) Denver Bowers
3) Buffalo Peterson
4) Cincy Green
5) Arizona Miller (or Quinn)
6) Cleveland Darius
7) SF Quinn (or Miller)
8) Tenn Gabbert
9) Dall Prince
10) Wash Newton

Quinn, Taylor, and Williams as our first 3. Now that would be something. It wont happen but it would be quite a haul.

Good points as usual. But teams have traded first up future 1st round picks for a 2nd round pick. Teams do all kinds of really stupid things in the draft, especially when are chasing a QB.

But I understand, maybe Vikings will be more willing to give up a 1st and 2nd to trade up with us.

Very few of us thought that Crabtree will fall to us. Right now, I don't think there is one player that is lock to go anywhere, let alone the top pick.

Also, we are still in Feb. I'm sure you understand these rankings and needs will change, especially with Combine, workouts, and most importantly free agency to come.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Those suggesting that Franklin be franchised are overlooking reality. Placing the franchise tag on Franklin would mean paying him over $12 million. The Niner's could afford it, but they won't do it because it means essentially paying him almost DOUBLE what they are paying their perrenial pro bowler Willis. Too disruptive of team chemistry and creates problems for down the road. They'll either sign him to a contract for more than he's worth or be forced to go in a different direction. New defensive coordinator may also have different ideas.

Another thought: If they were even close to contemplating that kind of money for Franklin, they would be in a perfect mindset to acquire Namndi A. and it would be a better move. IMO neither (franchising Franklin or acquiring Namndi) is in the cards. We'll see.

I think that you draft scenario is very intriguing and I like it. Many dominos have to fall though, so it's likelihood is questionable. Have you looked at the value equivalency tables for the trade that you are suggesting? Is the #7 worth a #10 and early 2nd rounder?

Your QB pick is very interesting. He could be a gem although he is not my personal favorite. But he has maybe the best physical QB attributes of all the guys out there.

Very true, I think they will franchise him and try to sign him to a deal. If not, they may trade him, but I don't think they will let him get away for free, or at least I wouldn't if I was making the decision.

Of course, Washington will be paying premium price for trading up for a QB, just Cleveland did when they traded up for Quinn. When you're moving up to get a QB - you can throw the chart away.

I like the QB from Nevada. I live near Reno and I happened to watch every single game he played in this year. I truly think he has that it factor that is a must for every successful QB in NFL. Now, he needs to go to a team with a great QB coach, because he is very raw and needs a full year (maybe 1 1/2) to play at the next level. I think Harbaugh is one of the best QB coaches in the league...so to me "it is a perfect competitive challenge" that makes a lot of sense for us - provided we have a veteran who can play for the next year or two.
4ML.. All I can say is that I would be dancing in the streets if the Niners off season went the way you lined it up. Hard to imagine but it would be awesome.
Like it alot except I don't give up picks to get Colin.

If he's there in the 3rd, which I think he will be, I'd love to have him. That way we keep and extra 4th rounder to get a wr.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
4ML.. All I can say is that I would be dancing in the streets if the Niners off season went the way you lined it up. Hard to imagine but it would be awesome.

haha yea, I guess it's too optimistic. I just hope we can add a starter or two in the FA - especially a pass-rusher or a CB and a vet QB. That will give us a lot of flexibility in the draft.
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Those suggesting that Franklin be franchised are overlooking reality. Placing the franchise tag on Franklin would mean paying him over $12 million. The Niner's could afford it, but they won't do it because it means essentially paying him almost DOUBLE what they are paying their perrenial pro bowler Willis. Too disruptive of team chemistry and creates problems for down the road. They'll either sign him to a contract for more than he's worth or be forced to go in a different direction. New defensive coordinator may also have different ideas.

Another thought: If they were even close to contemplating that kind of money for Franklin, they would be in a perfect mindset to acquire Namndi A. and it would be a better move. IMO neither (franchising Franklin or acquiring Namndi) is in the cards. We'll see.

I think that you draft scenario is very intriguing and I like it. Many dominos have to fall though, so it's likelihood is questionable. Have you looked at the value equivalency tables for the trade that you are suggesting? Is the #7 worth a #10 and early 2nd rounder?

Your QB pick is very interesting. He could be a gem although he is not my personal favorite. But he has maybe the best physical QB attributes of all the guys out there.

Very true, I think they will franchise him and try to sign him to a deal. If not, they may trade him, but I don't think they will let him get away for free, or at least I wouldn't if I was making the decision.

Of course, Washington will be paying premium price for trading up for a QB, just Cleveland did when they traded up for Quinn. When you're moving up to get a QB - you can throw the chart away.

I like the QB from Nevada. I live near Reno and I happened to watch every single game he played in this year. I truly think he has that it factor that is a must for every successful QB in NFL. Now, he needs to go to a team with a great QB coach, because he is very raw and needs a full year (maybe 1 1/2) to play at the next level. I think Harbaugh is one of the best QB coaches in the league...so to me "it is a perfect competitive challenge" that makes a lot of sense for us - provided we have a veteran who can play for the next year or two.

They will not franchise Franklin. What if they cannot work out a deal with him? Then they are stuck paying him 12 million. I'm sure that they don't want to be paying him any more than 5/6 million a year MAX on a longer term deal. Why would he settle for that? He'd laugh all the way to the bank. And no team would trade for him with that kind of a price tag. He'd have to renegotiate his deal . . . again, why would he?

Anyway, if the Niners don't pick a QB first (and I don't think that they will, but you never know), Quinn would be my second choice, after only Peterson. So I love that pick.

I don't think that you're getting a 1st and 2nd out of Washington to jump up three spots . . . irrespective of whether they're picking a QB or not. Washington is not what Cleveland was. They know that the Niners would take less. Niners would jump at 1st and 3rd IMO. Shanahan is not afraid to trade up to get a QB, provided that he identifies one he likes . . . that's a BIG supposition.

I don't think that the Niners can afford to wait until the end of the second round to get their QB if they are serious about getting on in the draft. And I do think that they are serious about getting one this year . . . if not through the draft then a really untested back-up who they feel that they can develop. I don't know who that would be. Not Kolb. Maybe JJohnson . . . but then why was he beaten out by Freeman (who is younger) if he is that great?

So I'm assuming they will look for an answer in the draft. I agree, Kaepernick seems to have all the tools. Most importantly, the attitude. I would not mind an early 2nd on him, if Harbaugh likes him. I would even advocate trading up higher to pick him up (and giving up the extra pick they acquired from trading down), if Harbaugh thinks that he has "it". Remember, plenty of other teams looking for a QB. And with the scrutiny to come, studying film, combine, etc. His stock will rise if he is any good. Because he has athleticism. You cannot count on finding franchise QBs later in the draft.

So while I like your picks and you've put real good thought into it . . . I do not find your scenario too realistic.

Go ahead and dream though.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Those suggesting that Franklin be franchised are overlooking reality. Placing the franchise tag on Franklin would mean paying him over $12 million. The Niner's could afford it, but they won't do it because it means essentially paying him almost DOUBLE what they are paying their perrenial pro bowler Willis. Too disruptive of team chemistry and creates problems for down the road. They'll either sign him to a contract for more than he's worth or be forced to go in a different direction. New defensive coordinator may also have different ideas.

Another thought: If they were even close to contemplating that kind of money for Franklin, they would be in a perfect mindset to acquire Namndi A. and it would be a better move. IMO neither (franchising Franklin or acquiring Namndi) is in the cards. We'll see.

I think that you draft scenario is very intriguing and I like it. Many dominos have to fall though, so it's likelihood is questionable. Have you looked at the value equivalency tables for the trade that you are suggesting? Is the #7 worth a #10 and early 2nd rounder?

Your QB pick is very interesting. He could be a gem although he is not my personal favorite. But he has maybe the best physical QB attributes of all the guys out there.

Very true, I think they will franchise him and try to sign him to a deal. If not, they may trade him, but I don't think they will let him get away for free, or at least I wouldn't if I was making the decision.

Of course, Washington will be paying premium price for trading up for a QB, just Cleveland did when they traded up for Quinn. When you're moving up to get a QB - you can throw the chart away.

I like the QB from Nevada. I live near Reno and I happened to watch every single game he played in this year. I truly think he has that it factor that is a must for every successful QB in NFL. Now, he needs to go to a team with a great QB coach, because he is very raw and needs a full year (maybe 1 1/2) to play at the next level. I think Harbaugh is one of the best QB coaches in the league...so to me "it is a perfect competitive challenge" that makes a lot of sense for us - provided we have a veteran who can play for the next year or two.

They will not franchise Franklin. What if they cannot work out a deal with him? Then they are stuck paying him 12 million. I'm sure that they don't want to be paying him any more than 5/6 million a year MAX on a longer term deal. Why would he settle for that? He'd laugh all the way to the bank. And no team would trade for him with that kind of a price tag. He'd have to renegotiate his deal . . . again, why would he?

Anyway, if the Niners don't pick a QB first (and I don't think that they will, but you never know), Quinn would be my second choice, after only Peterson. So I love that pick.

I don't think that you're getting a 1st and 2nd out of Washington to jump up three spots . . . irrespective of whether they're picking a QB or not. Washington is not what Cleveland was. They know that the Niners would take less. Niners would jump at 1st and 3rd IMO. Shanahan is not afraid to trade up to get a QB, provided that he identifies one he likes . . . that's a BIG supposition.

I don't think that the Niners can afford to wait until the end of the second round to get their QB if they are serious about getting on in the draft. And I do think that they are serious about getting one this year . . . if not through the draft then a really untested back-up who they feel that they can develop. I don't know who that would be. Not Kolb. Maybe JJohnson . . . but then why was he beaten out by Freeman (who is younger) if he is that great?

So I'm assuming they will look for an answer in the draft. I agree, Kaepernick seems to have all the tools. Most importantly, the attitude. I would not mind an early 2nd on him, if Harbaugh likes him. I would even advocate trading up higher to pick him up (and giving up the extra pick they acquired from trading down), if Harbaugh thinks that he has "it". Remember, plenty of other teams looking for a QB. And with the scrutiny to come, studying film, combine, etc. His stock will rise if he is any good. Because he has athleticism. You cannot count on finding franchise QBs later in the draft.

So while I like your picks and you've put real good thought into it . . . I do not find your scenario too realistic.

Go ahead and dream though.

Niners can always franchise him and if they can't reach a deal, take the tag off. It won't make a lot of sense for Franklin to sign the tag. He can get 6-7 mil. a year on a 4/5 year contract, and due to his age - he won't take the risk of playin' on 1 year contract, imho.

NTs are not easy to find, so I hope they do franchise him.

Washington doesn't have a 3rd or 4th rounder, so if they want to move up - they will have to include the 2nd rounder. Maybe we'll throw in a 4th or 5th rounder to sweeten the deal.

You're probably right that Kaepernick's stock will rise. I just don't to predict that until it actually happens, because lot of it depends on his workouts.

But yes, good feedback - I really appreciate that, and it will help when I do another mock.
Member Milestone: This is post number 200 for Rsrkshn.
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:


Niners can always franchise him and if they can't reach a deal, take the tag off. It won't make a lot of sense for Franklin to sign the tag. He can get 6-7 mil. a year on a 4/5 year contract, and due to his age - he won't take the risk of playin' on 1 year contract, imho.

NTs are not easy to find, so I hope they do franchise him.

Washington doesn't have a 3rd or 4th rounder, so if they want to move up - they will have to include the 2nd rounder. Maybe we'll throw in a 4th or 5th rounder to sweeten the deal.

You're probably right that Kaepernick's stock will rise. I just don't to predict that until it actually happens, because lot of it depends on his workouts.

But yes, good feedback - I really appreciate that, and it will help when I do another mock.

Does franchising work like that?

Can you franchise someone and then take it off? Not sure about that. Of course if the player consents . . . but the team cannot do it unilaterally. It does put the player in an awkward situation. Basically, he cannot market himself to other teams. So you're suggesting that the Niners play dirty ball. Either do a deal with them or play for the $12 million?

Not so sure Franklin would mind playing one year for 12 million.

Anyways it's probably all pretty irrelevant to how the Niners will draft.

Looking forward to seeing how Kaepernick's stock tracks over the next couple of months, for sure.

All good stuff.
  • 4ML
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Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:


Niners can always franchise him and if they can't reach a deal, take the tag off. It won't make a lot of sense for Franklin to sign the tag. He can get 6-7 mil. a year on a 4/5 year contract, and due to his age - he won't take the risk of playin' on 1 year contract, imho.

NTs are not easy to find, so I hope they do franchise him.

Washington doesn't have a 3rd or 4th rounder, so if they want to move up - they will have to include the 2nd rounder. Maybe we'll throw in a 4th or 5th rounder to sweeten the deal.

You're probably right that Kaepernick's stock will rise. I just don't to predict that until it actually happens, because lot of it depends on his workouts.

But yes, good feedback - I really appreciate that, and it will help when I do another mock.

Does franchising work like that?

Can you franchise someone and then take it off? Not sure about that. Of course if the player consents . . . but the team cannot do it unilaterally. It does put the player in an awkward situation. Basically, he cannot market himself to other teams. So you're suggesting that the Niners play dirty ball. Either do a deal with them or play for the $12 million?

Not so sure Franklin would mind playing one year for 12 million.

Anyways it's probably all pretty irrelevant to how the Niners will draft.

Looking forward to seeing how Kaepernick's stock tracks over the next couple of months, for sure.

All good stuff.

Yea, a team can withdraw the tag if the player hasnt' signed it. Most players hate franchise tags - because if they get hurt - they may be 1 and done. Franklin can get a lot more money than 12 million in free-agency (of course over 4 year period) - and he could lose out on that money if he tears an ACL in October or November of 2011.

Kaepernick is the one to watch among the 2nd and 3rd round QB prospects. I can't wait for combine!

[ Edited by 49ersMyLife on Feb 10, 2011 at 00:19:12 ]