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Very good article about drafting QBs in 2nd Round

  • Kolohe
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Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010 - Too early to tell, has to learn another offensive system.
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009 - Bad pick here, did not belong in the 2nd round as a QB.
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008 - The leash on him was real short, I'd like to see him start a full season, with every chance to succeed before I make a real judgment call.
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008 - Started a total of 27 games, has shown good mechanics, good arm. Still too early to tell how good or bad he will be.
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007 - Has shown he can be pretty good when given a shot, Eagles want two 1st round picks, that should say a lot about his potential as a QB.
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007 - Did not think he belonged in the 2nd round, bad pick here.
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007 - Just like Alex Smith, hes been through a number of OC's in just 4 years, he actually showed some potential this past year. Too early to tell
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006 - Another bad pick in the 2nd round that shouldn't have gone that high. I always thought of him as a 7th round pick. Was never high on Clemens coming outta Oregon.
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006 - Over drafted....nuff said.
Originally posted by frozen49er:
Im new to posting here, and after reading on this site for 5 years, I am not taking any side on the whole Alex situation. I know, Im not any fun.

McNabb did look good under reid, and I dont think that Washington is a good place for anyone to go, could he be a stopgap, maybe. But Kolb for a 2? I dont know. Yes, we need a qb badly, I think we simply have too many needs to toss everything for a potential qb, no matter how good you think H is with them. Thats also assuming philly would deal him for a 2, which I dont see happening with Vicks injury potential.

Id like to see a qb later, 3rd or 4th. Let him sit a few years, McNabb, Orton, Johnson from TB. Whoever. Allow the rest of our team to come together with a couple of competitive seasons under one of these guys, then let the draft pick play, ala Aaron Rodgers. We dont have a Favre for him to learn from, but with H, it could work. A few okay years, for a dozen great years. I'm tired of losing too, but it would be worth it in the long run.

So a 2nd round qb? Why, we dont need to. CB and OLB, either order for the first two rounds. There are alot of other bad teams that can take qbs in the 2nd round and let them start in week 5 and ruin their carears, we dont need to be in the mix with them.

It's not a debate about him.. The dude brought up 05... I just saying that what happen 6 years ago... Shouldn't preclued the team from drafting a QB this year.. I personal believe we need a DB first,but if Baalke say QB.. I'm not going to say reach or waste pick,because it's a major need also..

[ Edited by fakers23 on Jan 29, 2011 at 22:52:13 ]
Originally posted by fakers23:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by Jcool:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by fakers23:
Originally posted by frozen49er:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I'm out of energy for the day, but I thought this was a good article I found on Rotoworld.

http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/01/the_lack_of_success_of_secondr.php


The (Lack of) Success of Second-Round QBs

Jimmy Clausen falls into a dubious category as a second-round quarterback.

It's been a decade since the second round of the NFL draft produced a franchise quarterback. Drew Brees, selected in 2001, is the last signal caller to fit the description.

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006


And it gets better as you go on.....

Ill bite and go, interesting.

However, there are alot of people here who think we should go after Kolb via trade, Stanton arguably is better than anyone we've had in awhile, Tarvaris could be a starter in the near future, and GB knew who their QB was. Most of these teams are deep in the process of rebuilding, or rebuilt. Jets, Lions, GB, Eagles. Yes, Clausen was a disaster.

My question would be how many franchises, like ours are years back because we went for a qb in the high first and failed and set their team back years. Even the flops on this list arent all that detrimental to their teams as a high first wasnt wasted on them.

Yeah,but you can't be scared to take a QB first just,because of what happen with Alex.. Not every QB the same..

Is your soul reason for posting to turn everything on the WZ into an Alex Smith debate?

How is that leading to an Alex debate? He is making a good point. Seems you are trying to start the debate not him.

If it was someone else, maybe. But I have never seen this guy post in a thread without bring up Alex Smith one way or another. Maybe he is innocent and I'm just hyper sensitive, but I doubt it.

I brought up Alex because we drafted him in 05 and the guy above me said he's afraid to take another QB because of 05... All I said was you can't let what happen in 05 deter you from take a QB that you think is a franchise QB.. Your looking into some thing not there...

You're right. I apologize. After reading your reply in context, I probably jumped the gun.
Originally posted by fakers23:
Originally posted by frozen49er:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I'm out of energy for the day, but I thought this was a good article I found on Rotoworld.

http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/01/the_lack_of_success_of_secondr.php


The (Lack of) Success of Second-Round QBs

Jimmy Clausen falls into a dubious category as a second-round quarterback.

It's been a decade since the second round of the NFL draft produced a franchise quarterback. Drew Brees, selected in 2001, is the last signal caller to fit the description.

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006


And it gets better as you go on.....

Ill bite and go, interesting.

However, there are alot of people here who think we should go after Kolb via trade, Stanton arguably is better than anyone we've had in awhile, Tarvaris could be a starter in the near future, and GB knew who their QB was. Most of these teams are deep in the process of rebuilding, or rebuilt. Jets, Lions, GB, Eagles. Yes, Clausen was a disaster.

My question would be how many franchises, like ours are years back because we went for a qb in the high first and failed and set their team back years. Even the flops on this list arent all that detrimental to their teams as a high first wasnt wasted on them.

Yeah,but you can't be scared to take a QB first just,because of what happen with Alex.. Not every QB the same..

For the record, Im not looking at this as to what can happen with an Alex, leaf, harrington, etc... Theres alot of guys out there that went way way to high because teams reach for qbs, always have, always will. I dont think we need to grab one in 1 or 2, but thats just my 2 cents. If Trent and Jim go that route, Ill root for them all the same, just like I did for Alex, Drunkenmiller, etc...
It comes down to percentages.

A first round QB has a rate of being pro-Bowl (since 2000): 32%
A second round pro-Bowler: 8%
A 3rd-7th round pro-Bowler: 5%


We a 1/3 chance of drafting a Pro-Bowl QB this year.

I'd say we have a 70% chance of drafting a game-changing defensive player. But in the grand scheme of things, franchise QBs win championships and until you have one, you will be constantly looking for one and remaining mediocre. We only know too well. But still, a 1/3 chance to completely revolutionize this franchise, while providing more rest and less pressure for our defense. Giving them opportunity to dictate the tempo as opposed to being driven until the defense is gassed and the secondary allows one of those predictable game changing plays at the end and we lose.

A stellar defender might not give up that play at the end. And a true pass rusher (Quinn or Miller) might force more turnovers and punts, but a QB put points on the board, fans in the stands, and provides championship aspirations.

[ Edited by NinerBuff on Jan 29, 2011 at 23:50:42 ]
Brees proves you can do it in the 2nd. And Montana proves you can do it in the 3rd. Brady proves you can do it in the 6th.

You just have to take each player for their own and each year for it's own. Just evaluate indivdual players and don't worry so much about history. Good players are out there to be found. I trust Harbaugh to find one. But not Baalke. Hopefully he will defer to Harbaugh on at least QB.
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Brees proves you can do it in the 2nd. And Montana proves you can do it in the 3rd. Brady proves you can do it in the 6th.

You just have to take each player for their own and each year for it's own. Just evaluate indivdual players and don't worry so much about history. Good players are out there to be found. I trust Harbaugh to find one. But not Baalke. Hopefully he will defer to Harbaugh on at least QB.

Agreed. I'd love to see us get Ponder in the 2nd. I actually like the later round QBs better than the first rounders in this draft.
Originally posted by BoiseNiner:
I think it would be be ill advised to avoid drafting a QB in the 2nd round just because of the lack of success of previous 2nd round QB's. To me it's the same as avoiding a certain player just because of what school he attended. I'm sure the Cowboys are happy with Dez Bryant even though the previous OK State WR Rashaun Woods was a bust. Or avoiding Tedford QB's because he never produced elite QB's in the NFL.

First round Tedford QB's

-Trent Dilfer - won a championship but not because of his play. He was a serviceable NFL QB at most.
-David Carr
-Akili Smith
-Joey Harrington
-Kyle Boller

Then you have Aaron Rodgers. His success in the NFL is well documented.

I remember having a debate here back in 2005 over whether we should draft Rodgers or Smith (I was a big fan of Rodgers - and feel very smug now). And saying just because Tedford's QBs haven't worked out doesn't mean the future crop will be equally jinxed.

Brings a tear to my eye.
Originally posted by Jcool:
Quote:
I do not think the 49ers, or any team, can make draft decisions based on what might be available to them a year later. The 49ers cannot know how early they will draft in 2012, and they cannot know whether they will like any of the quarterbacks available to them at that time. Jake Locker's shifting stock comes to mind.

Until the 49ers have a legitimate long-term starter, they should draft a quarterback in the first round every time they value one as a first-round selection.

NFL teams tend to draft quarterbacks in the first round more frequently than they take them in the second or third rounds. That helps explain why so many more good ones -- and not-so-good ones -- were first-round choices.

Teams have drafted 143 quarterbacks since 2000. They drafted 28 in the first round, 12 in the second round, 14 in the third round, 12 in the fourth round and 77 in the final three rounds.

Sixteen of the 143 have earned Pro Bowl honors. This includes nine of the 28 first-round choices, but only three of the 38 quarterbacks drafted in the second, third or fourth rounds. None of the 23 fifth-round choices has earned a Pro Bowl berth. Three of 30 sixth-rounders and one of 24 seventh-rounders have earned the honors.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/32399/mailbag-how-to-approach-qbs-in-draft



Bravo! The consensus on the board is to settle for a QB later in the draft. The numbers as we see here just don't support that strategy. Granted there's no sure thing in the draft but your odds are much better taking a first rounder, and these numbers show it. Take a QB first. We'll have plenty of other picks to hit all the other needs.
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Brees proves you can do it in the 2nd. And Montana proves you can do it in the 3rd. Brady proves you can do it in the 6th.

You just have to take each player for their own and each year for it's own. Just evaluate indivdual players and don't worry so much about history. Good players are out there to be found. I trust Harbaugh to find one. But not Baalke. Hopefully he will defer to Harbaugh on at least QB.

The exception does not prove the rule. I could say that Kurt Warner proves that we don't even need to draft a QB. Just scan the supermarket shelves for someone stocking cans to get our next QB. But this would be zooming in on a specific example so far as to miss the big picture. And the big picture is that if you attempt to make an NFL starter out of a 2nd round or later pick, that you are very likely to fail. Granted a first rounder is no guarantee, which we all understand too well at this point. But you do have much better odds with a first rounder. We'll see if Harbaugh agrees.
Past experience does not guarantee future results.
Originally posted by ishkabibel:
Past experience does not guarantee future results.

There are no guarantees when it comes to the draft. However, history is not meaningless.
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Brees proves you can do it in the 2nd. And Montana proves you can do it in the 3rd. Brady proves you can do it in the 6th.

You just have to take each player for their own and each year for it's own. Just evaluate indivdual players and don't worry so much about history. Good players are out there to be found. I trust Harbaugh to find one. But not Baalke. Hopefully he will defer to Harbaugh on at least QB.

Agreed. I'd love to see us get Ponder in the 2nd. I actually like the later round QBs better than the first rounders in this draft.



You cant honestly say that....no one knows that they would be better as to what you are implying here. I do know there is a reason why they are on lower tiers than the top 4 here...
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Brees proves you can do it in the 2nd. And Montana proves you can do it in the 3rd. Brady proves you can do it in the 6th.

You just have to take each player for their own and each year for it's own. Just evaluate indivdual players and don't worry so much about history. Good players are out there to be found. I trust Harbaugh to find one. But not Baalke. Hopefully he will defer to Harbaugh on at least QB.

The exception does not prove the rule. I could say that Kurt Warner proves that we don't even need to draft a QB. Just scan the supermarket shelves for someone stocking cans to get our next QB. But this would be zooming in on a specific example so far as to miss the big picture. And the big picture is that if you attempt to make an NFL starter out of a 2nd round or later pick, that you are very likely to fail. Granted a first rounder is no guarantee, which we all understand too well at this point. But you do have much better odds with a first rounder. We'll see if Harbaugh agrees.

This is an EXCELLENT point here. Why some people want to look at lower tier QBs to be had after the 1st, and say that this is our QB of the future is hilarious. We cant say that "Well Brees, Montana , and Brady did it". We need a QB, I would rather take one with measurables through the roof like these 4 have....than to target one and in later rounds and annoit him the future.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by Jcool:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by fakers23:
Originally posted by frozen49er:
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I'm out of energy for the day, but I thought this was a good article I found on Rotoworld.

http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/01/the_lack_of_success_of_secondr.php


The (Lack of) Success of Second-Round QBs

Jimmy Clausen falls into a dubious category as a second-round quarterback.

It's been a decade since the second round of the NFL draft produced a franchise quarterback. Drew Brees, selected in 2001, is the last signal caller to fit the description.

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006


And it gets better as you go on.....

Ill bite and go, interesting.

However, there are alot of people here who think we should go after Kolb via trade, Stanton arguably is better than anyone we've had in awhile, Tarvaris could be a starter in the near future, and GB knew who their QB was. Most of these teams are deep in the process of rebuilding, or rebuilt. Jets, Lions, GB, Eagles. Yes, Clausen was a disaster.

My question would be how many franchises, like ours are years back because we went for a qb in the high first and failed and set their team back years. Even the flops on this list arent all that detrimental to their teams as a high first wasnt wasted on them.

Yeah,but you can't be scared to take a QB first just,because of what happen with Alex.. Not every QB the same..

Is your soul reason for posting to turn everything on the WZ into an Alex Smith debate?

How is that leading to an Alex debate? He is making a good point. Seems you are trying to start the debate not him.

If it was someone else, maybe. But I have never seen this guy post in a thread without bring up Alex Smith one way or another. Maybe he is innocent and I'm just hyper sensitive, but I doubt it.

You're not wrong.