Great year to trade down

The deal in 2008 that gave our pick in the second round to Carolina for their first in 2009 was a good try....put they,[Carolina] did not have as bad a year as we hoped,
To bad we couldn't do that deal Last year so we would'a had The panthers # 1 overall this year.....sorry, just wishin.

Originally posted by Butter:
some scenario's they could consider:

Trade #1
49ers trade 1 rd /7 pick: 1500 pts
49ers trade 3/76 pick: 210 pts
Total 1710 pts

Texans trade 1/11 pick: 1250 pts
Texans trade 2/42: 480 pts
Total: 1730 pts

Trade #2
49ers trade 1/11: 1250 pts

New England 1/17: 950 pts
New England 2/60: 300 pts
Total: 1250 pts


Rd 1/pick 17: Justin Houston (or Ryan Kerrigan, etc)
2nd rd/ pick 42 (from Houston)
2nd rd/ pick 45
2nd rd/ pick 60 (from NE)
3rd: no pick
4th rd/ pick 107
4th rd/ pick 114 (from San Diego)
5th rd/ pick 138
6th rd/ pick 169
6th rd/ pick 185
7th rd/ pick 199
7th rd/ pick 200

I agree, trade down is best option (unless Peterson falls). There are several desirable players possibly available at #7 including QB’s Gabbert, Newton, CB’s (Prince, etc) and DL & OLB (Von Miller, Nick Fairly, Quinn), WR (Julio Jones, AJ Green) that some team may want to trade-up for. But it’s also a DEEP draft in the areas of need for the 49ers (DE, OLB, QB). I think there are excellent players available through the 2nd round, so getting extra picks in late 1st - early 2nd makes sense.

There are many trade back possibilities including Redskins for QB or WR (#10); Houston for DT, CB (#11); Vikings for QB or CB (#12); Miami for QB (#15); New England for OLB (#17, 28, 33) (NE has much ammo 2 x 1st's, 2 x 2nd's and 2 x 3rd's picks); San Diego for WR, DE, OLB (#18) (SD has ammo, a 1st, 2 x 2nd's and 2 x 3rd's picks); etc, etc

ideal scenario: (still dreaming)
Sign Nnamdi Asomugha, trade for Carson Palmer (or sign Alex Smith)
Trade down and get two extra picks (see 'Butter' scenario above)

Mid 1st rd: Ryan Kerrigan (or Justin Houston, Cam Jordan, Aldon Smith?, etc

Early 2nd/late 1st: Muhammad Wilkerson, (or Brooks Reed, Corey Liuget, etc)

Mid 2nd: Kaepernick, (or Locker, Ponder, Sam Acho, etc)

2/3rd: OLB Dontay Moch, (Chris Carter (Fresno), Ponder, etc)

Solve holes at:
CB: Asomugha
Two QB's: Carson Palmer plus Kaepernick (or Alex Smith plus Ponder, etc),
DL: Wilkerson, (or Liuget)
Two OLB's: Kerrigan PLUS Moch (or Brooks Reed, Chris Carter, etc)

“You see things; and you say, 'Why?' But I dream things that never were; and I say, 'Why not?'”

I would rather keep our 1st and trade up with some of our other picks.

Originally posted by Chief:
I would rather keep our 1st and trade up with some of our other picks.

In the trade-down scenario that ‘Butter’ described, you would have the choice of picking:

#7 Prince Amukamara (CB) etc

or trade down for:

#17 Ryan Kerrigan
PLUS
#43 Muhammad Wilkerson
PLUS
#60 Dontay Moch

I’d rather take advantage of a deep draft in our main areas of need (OLB and D Line) and fortify our DL and OLB once and for all. There are going to be really great DL and OLB’s available through rounds 2-3. Perhaps you would prefer Justin Houston, or Corey Luiget, Cameron Jordan, Chris Carter, Sam Acho, etc. But if possible I’d turn that #7 overall pick into three really solid front 7 players!!!

The problem with trading down is you can cut off your nose to spite your face, so to speak. You forgo any chance to grab the most elite pass rushers, DL, and CB's, all of which are big needs. Yes, the extra picks would be nice...but, it's also a gamble. I think they just need to hang in at #7 and get a real stud pass rusher...like Quinn. Players who draw comparisons to Charles Haley don't come along very often...he could be a real difference maker, and is the kind of player Fangio's looking for to take the D to the next level.

There is so much depth of great players lower than the top 10 slots also. Think about the decent to good teams. Not many in the top five the last few years, outside of Atlanta, has become really good enough to compete.

What im saying is this: 49ers and Raiders- yeah, we get top 10 picks all the time, but without hitting on the stars like the Packers (Raji, Matthews), we wont become that top level team. Crabtree and McFadden haven't totally lit it up lately, and look at their teams.

You find the gems at the bottom of the first round just as you find some OK players at the top. The Sam Achos, the Jordans, the Reeds are only going to help the "good" get better.

So it makes so much sense to follow the Patriots in some way as to accumulate picks so the odds of hitting on a great player in the second and third rounds are in our favor.

Remember Cleveland traded down many times a few years ago; they are getting some depth on that team. And with depth, the team has power to make roster changes through trades too.

Just one example.

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
The problem with trading down is you can cut off your nose to spite your face, so to speak. You forgo any chance to grab the most elite pass rushers, DL, and CB's, all of which are big needs. Yes, the extra picks would be nice...but, it's also a gamble. I think they just need to hang in at #7 and get a real stud pass rusher...like Quinn. Players who draw comparisons to Charles Haley don't come along very often...he could be a real difference maker, and is the kind of player Fangio's looking for to take the D to the next level.

If you knew for sure that Quinn was the next Haley, of course take him. But for every 'next Haley' there ends up being a Vern Gholston bust. One big reason Bill Walsh was a genius is his ability to maximize the value of his draft picks by trading down (or up). If you can get a good trade and still pick players you like, than you fill 2 or 3 holes instead of one.

Below are the top 20 sackers from 2010. As you can see, the highest pick is #10 overall. 4 were selected #10-13; 3 were #20-30; 8 in rd 2-5; 4 undrafted.

2010 Sacks Leaders
PLAYER . . . . . . . . . . . . SACK . . . Draft Round / #Overall
DeMarcus Ware, LB. . . 15.5 . . . . . 1st / #11
Tamba Hali, LB .. . . . . . 14.5 . . . . . 1st / #20
Cameron Wake, LB . . . 14.0 . . . . . undrafted
Clay Matthews, LB . . . . 13.5 . . . . . 1st / #26
John Abraham, DE . . . . 13.0 . . . . . 1st / #13
Jason Babin, DE . . . . . . 12.5 . . . . . 1st / #27
Osi Umenyiora, DE . . . . 11.5 . . . . . 2nd / #56
Justin Tuck, DE . . . . . . . 11.5 . . . . . 3rd / #74
Charles Johnson, DE . . 11.5 . . . . . 3rd / #83
Terrell Suggs, LB . . . . . .11.0 . . . . . 1st / #10
Robert Mathis, DE . . . . . 11.0 . . . . . 5th / #138
Chris Clemons, DE . . . . 11.0 . . . . . undrafted
Shaun Phillips, LB . . . . . 11.0 . . . . . 4th / #98
Jared Allen, DE. . . . . . . . 11.0 . . . . . 4th / #126
James Hall, DE . . . . . . . 10.5 . . . . . undrafted
James Harrison, LB . . . 10.5 . . . . . undrafted
Dwight Freeney, DE. . . . 10.0 . . . . . 1st / #11
Trent Cole, DE . . . . . . . . 10.0 . . . . . 5th / #146
LaMarr Woodley, LB. . . . 10.0 . . . . . 2nd / #46

PS. Statistically since none of the top sackers were selected in the top 9, you actually have a better chance by selecting in the mid first round!

cameron jordan!

. . .

Originally posted by maxsmart:

PS. Statistically since none of the top sackers were selected in the top 9, you actually have a better chance by selecting in the mid first round!

the problem is that you have to compare the draft classes before you make such a conclusion...you didnt tell us whether these guys were seen as top5-prospects, you dont know whether the top10 teams were stacked at pass-rush and so on.

Take the elite talent at 7.

I would rather trade up into the late 1st this year. We need to collect elite talent this year to get into the playoffs. Once we don't have any major holes than we can start collecting draft picks.

Baalke's not bad but he is no Bill Walsh.

I'm really excited for FA and the draft this year. Think we are gonna make some major moves.

If we dump Manny and Nate we get room/money to go after Nnamdi. This FA pickup would really setup our draft.

If we can trade down with NE and get their #17 and #60 we can then solidify our team as follows:

17.) Aldon Smith - olb huge pass rush
45.) Adrian Clayborn - dt/de anchor the line and helps pass rush
60.) Andy Dalton - qb - backup Alex for now and possible starter
76.) Dontay Moch - olb - great upside with pass rush written all over him
107.) Moffit or Tim Barnes - OG/OC - Oline is now set for future.
114.) Stanley Havili - fb - a huge need for the WCO to run correctly and Norris is gone (thank God)
137.) Greg Salas - wr - big need for us as I think Jim cans Ginn and or Morgan.

To me the best decision hinges on what Baalkebaugh decides to do at the QB position. If they can bring in Kolb or Palmer, we should stand pat and take one of the elite pass rushers or CBs. We could be playoff bound in that scenario.

QB position aside, it seems like there is a big drop-off in talent after the top 9 or so. I would be weary of trading down anymore than a couple of spots unless there are a couple of surprise top 6 picks (ie. if Newton/Jones/Gabbert get into the top six we can afford to move down a few picks and probably still get an elite CB or OLB).

With the potential for a rookie cap, the value of the top picks may go up. I'd stand pat unless a monster deal comes in the spot.