What I See Happening in the Draft

Since there is no CBA in place and because it is unlikely to be done before the draft, teams that want a QB won't know if they can trade or sign a player and may not want to chance it. So they draft QB just in case if they need one like the niners. The key is that they don't get desperate like the niners did with Alex.

However with that said, there may be a run on QBs and some may be picked earlier than they should. If they don't, then expect a bidding war for the veterans or high asking price in trades.

I just hope the niners don't panic and instead take advantage by getting a top DB or Dlineman before going after the QB. Since Willis and Davis are locked up they can then trade or sign a free agent.

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since there is no CBA in place and because it is unlikely to be done before the draft, teams that want a QB won't know if they can trade or sign a player and may not want to chance it. So they draft QB just in case if they need one like the niners. The key is that they don't get desperate like the niners did with Alex.

However with that said, there may be a run on QBs and some may be picked earlier than they should. If they don't, then expect a bidding war for the veterans or high asking price in trades.

I just hope the niners don't panic and instead take advantage by getting a top DB or Dlineman before going after the QB. Since Willis and Davis are locked up they can then trade or sign a free agent.

I really don't expect this to happen. I could be wrong, but I'm of the firm belief that all this "CBA won't get done" talk is just posturing. There is too much on the line and the NFL is too smart of a league to put themselves in a bad position with a work stoppage and/or even a mad dash of an offseason.

I fully expect the CBA to get established before the draft. It makes too much sense for the team and owners. And this possible "work stoppage" is about the owners wanting a new deal. The players would stick with what is currently in place in a second.

So, there might be a mad dash and some bidding just before the draft, but I expect a CBA to be in place before it.

But even if it isn't, obviously, it will be shortly thereafter and every team will know it, so they will draft as they would otherwise and then deal with remaining needs in FA.

A rookie QB who isn't ready to start won't be ready to start regardless of WHEN you sign a vet starter/backup. Your plan when drafting has to be the same no matter what. If you think the guy your are drafting is ready to start (unlikely this year), you don't need a "starter" level vet, if you know the kid needs a year or two of conditioning, then you do need a vet starter.

Doesn't matter if you sign/trade for that starter in February or May.

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since there is no CBA in place and because it is unlikely to be done before the draft, teams that want a QB won't know if they can trade or sign a player and may not want to chance it. So they draft QB just in case if they need one like the niners. The key is that they don't get desperate like the niners did with Alex.
However with that said, there may be a run on QBs and some may be picked earlier than they should. If they don't, then expect a bidding war for the veterans or high asking price in trades.

I just hope the niners don't panic and instead take advantage by getting a top DB or Dlineman before going after the QB. Since Willis and Davis are locked up they can then trade or sign a free agent.

This statement just simply isnt true. The niners didnt reach for alex out of desperation. Almost everybody had him at the top of the draft, and cant recall anybody in the football world saying it was a bad move. I understand what your saying and know this isnt the main point of this threat but drafting alex smith was not a desperate reach

Originally posted by TexasNiner:

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since there is no CBA in place and because it is unlikely to be done before the draft, teams that want a QB won't know if they can trade or sign a player and may not want to chance it. So they draft QB just in case if they need one like the niners. The key is that they don't get desperate like the niners did with Alex.

However with that said, there may be a run on QBs and some may be picked earlier than they should. If they don't, then expect a bidding war for the veterans or high asking price in trades.

I just hope the niners don't panic and instead take advantage by getting a top DB or Dlineman before going after the QB. Since Willis and Davis are locked up they can then trade or sign a free agent.

I really don't expect this to happen. I could be wrong, but I'm of the firm belief that all this "CBA won't get done" talk is just posturing. There is too much on the line and the NFL is too smart of a league to put themselves in a bad position with a work stoppage and/or even a mad dash of an offseason.

I fully expect the CBA to get established before the draft. It makes too much sense for the team and owners. And this possible "work stoppage" is about the owners wanting a new deal. The players would stick with what is currently in place in a second.

So, there might be a mad dash and some bidding just before the draft, but I expect a CBA to be in place before it.

But even if it isn't, obviously, it will be shortly thereafter and every team will know it, so they will draft as they would otherwise and then deal with remaining needs in FA.

A rookie QB who isn't ready to start won't be ready to start regardless of WHEN you sign a vet starter/backup. Your plan when drafting has to be the same no matter what. If you think the guy your are drafting is ready to start (unlikely this year), you don't need a "starter" level vet, if you know the kid needs a year or two of conditioning, then you do need a vet starter.

Doesn't matter if you sign/trade for that starter in February or May.

this

What I see happening in the draft with respect to qbs is this. If the CBA is not in place before the draft I think many veteran nfl qbs that have been discussed being traded will stay in put.

Hear me out... If the eagles, for example wanted to trade Kolb and a CBA was in place they could trade him prior to the draft and get say a 2nd this year. If there is no CBA before the draft this trade is not allowed to happen. Even if a CBA is put in place after the draft, why would the eagles trade kolb for a 2nd round the following year? they would be more likely to hold onto him until the following offseason.

Same for a guy like josh johnson. If the 49ers and bucs cant work out a player for player deal and the draft has already passed by the time the CBA is reached, why would the bucs trade him for a draft pick for the following season when they can hold onto him for the season and then trade him afterwards.

sorry if this was confusing, it makes sense in my head but is hard to put into words

Originally posted by cory4903:
What I see happening in the draft with respect to qbs is this. If the CBA is not in place before the draft I think many veteran nfl qbs that have been discussed being traded will stay in put.

Hear me out... If the eagles, for example wanted to trade Kolb and a CBA was in place they could trade him prior to the draft and get say a 2nd this year. If there is no CBA before the draft this trade is not allowed to happen. Even if a CBA is put in place after the draft, why would the eagles trade kolb for a 2nd round the following year? they would be more likely to hold onto him until the following offseason.

Same for a guy like josh johnson. If the 49ers and bucs cant work out a player for player deal and the draft has already passed by the time the CBA is reached, why would the bucs trade him for a draft pick for the following season when they can hold onto him for the season and then trade him afterwards.

sorry if this was confusing, it makes sense in my head but is hard to put into words

I get what you are saying, but I think the trades will still happen or not based on team needs and if they are getting what they want in return.

The reason is this, in the case of Kolb and I believe Johnson, their current teams only hold their rights for one more year. And a pick in next year's draft is just as valuable as a pick in this year's draft. Maybe more, sometimes you can get a higher or more picks by getting them for future years.

But if they hold on to the players, they they will be FAs the following year and they will get nothing in return for them if they leave.

I agree, trades will be easier with a CBA in place prior to the draft (and as stated above, I think this will happen), but even if it doesn't, once the CBA is done after the draft, it will be business as usual for the most part, just maybe faster, and teams willing to trade veteran players (QB or otherwise) will do so, they will just have to wait a little longer to use the draft picks they get.

Frankly this may help teams more than it hurts. Look at the Pats, all they do is stockpile future draft picks as opposed to overvaluing current ones and it tends to work out brilliantly for them.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:

Originally posted by cory4903:
What I see happening in the draft with respect to qbs is this. If the CBA is not in place before the draft I think many veteran nfl qbs that have been discussed being traded will stay in put.

Hear me out... If the eagles, for example wanted to trade Kolb and a CBA was in place they could trade him prior to the draft and get say a 2nd this year. If there is no CBA before the draft this trade is not allowed to happen. Even if a CBA is put in place after the draft, why would the eagles trade kolb for a 2nd round the following year? they would be more likely to hold onto him until the following offseason.

Same for a guy like josh johnson. If the 49ers and bucs cant work out a player for player deal and the draft has already passed by the time the CBA is reached, why would the bucs trade him for a draft pick for the following season when they can hold onto him for the season and then trade him afterwards.

sorry if this was confusing, it makes sense in my head but is hard to put into words

I get what you are saying, but I think the trades will still happen or not based on team needs and if they are getting what they want in return.

The reason is this, in the case of Kolb and I believe Johnson, their current teams only hold their rights for one more year. And a pick in next year's draft is just as valuable as a pick in this year's draft. Maybe more, sometimes you can get a higher or more picks by getting them for future years.

But if they hold on to the players, they they will be FAs the following year and they will get nothing in return for them if they leave.

I agree, trades will be easier with a CBA in place prior to the draft (and as stated above, I think this will happen), but even if it doesn't, once the CBA is done after the draft, it will be business as usual for the most part, just maybe faster, and teams willing to trade veteran players (QB or otherwise) will do so, they will just have to wait a little longer to use the draft picks they get.

Frankly this may help teams more than it hurts. Look at the Pats, all they do is stockpile future draft picks as opposed to overvaluing current ones and it tends to work out brilliantly for them.

thats a good point about their contracts being up after next season

Originally posted by cory4903:

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since there is no CBA in place and because it is unlikely to be done before the draft, teams that want a QB won't know if they can trade or sign a player and may not want to chance it. So they draft QB just in case if they need one like the niners. The key is that they don't get desperate like the niners did with Alex.
However with that said, there may be a run on QBs and some may be picked earlier than they should. If they don't, then expect a bidding war for the veterans or high asking price in trades.

I just hope the niners don't panic and instead take advantage by getting a top DB or Dlineman before going after the QB. Since Willis and Davis are locked up they can then trade or sign a free agent.

This statement just simply isnt true. The niners didnt reach for alex out of desperation. Almost everybody had him at the top of the draft, and cant recall anybody in the football world saying it was a bad move. I understand what your saying and know this isnt the main point of this threat but drafting alex smith was not a desperate reach

Actually a lot of people were saying that the niners had no choice but to pick Alex to make a splash for Nolan. They also said that the niners did want to trade out but there were no takers, because that year was a poor year for draft picks in the top 10 and they were right, there was not movement. You can argue he was at the top, but of a poor draft that at ain't saying much. I said it back then he was not worth the pick and felt they should traded out even if they don't get the value they want. Not saying I am a pro, just say that my gut was right and I got lucky.

Originally posted by cory4903:
What I see happening in the draft with respect to qbs is this. If the CBA is not in place before the draft I think many veteran nfl qbs that have been discussed being traded will stay in put.

Hear me out... If the eagles, for example wanted to trade Kolb and a CBA was in place they could trade him prior to the draft and get say a 2nd this year. If there is no CBA before the draft this trade is not allowed to happen. Even if a CBA is put in place after the draft, why would the eagles trade kolb for a 2nd round the following year? they would be more likely to hold onto him until the following offseason.

Same for a guy like josh johnson. If the 49ers and bucs cant work out a player for player deal and the draft has already passed by the time the CBA is reached, why would the bucs trade him for a draft pick for the following season when they can hold onto him for the season and then trade him afterwards.

sorry if this was confusing, it makes sense in my head but is hard to put into words

I can agree that those with 1 year left may still be traded, the other facter is this, if the CBA doesn't get done in time, people are going to keep the people who are familiar with their system since they won't have time to familiarize a new person. This is where Josh might be important, but hopefully they don't overpay for him. Also, it always happens, there is a run on talent at a position, I'm hoping people panic and take Locker and Mallet or Newton the more the merrier as I said, then we will have better choices at 7. Well at least I can hope