Mock top 7 w/o Luck

So we pick 7th this year. This is my take on what will happen on draft day WITHOUT ANDREW LUCK, this mock is based on the idea that Luck stays in school and simultaneously all other teams realize they have bigger needs then QB based on coaching changes.
However if Luck did come out we would assume Carolina drafted him and he didn't pull an Elway/Eli; consequently you could move Nick Fairley to my AZ pick and move Von Miller to another pick as both could fit there.
I've included the current head coach or possible successors and some alternate picks based on other needs.

Carolina -- Ron Rivera/Bill Cowher - one of these two is hired as the new HC. Both of whom run 3-4s, would love a guy like Fairley, molding him would be their version of developing a QB.
1. Nick Fairley, projected as a top 5 pick, I could see the panthers jumping at him if they go for a defensive minded coach. It is said that the Panthers also want a first time coach and what better way to make it known your here for defense by drafting a staple like Fairley?
1a. If Auburn wins the national title Newton will undoubtedly declare(again this is in a world that Luck stays in school). With Newton's charisma and raw talent the Panthers would gain everything that Clausen and Pike can't offer right now.

Denver Broncos -- Harbaugh/Mularkey -- I don't see the random connection of Elway. a Standford QB wooing the current Stanford HC to come to Denver. Mularkey, a current OC has had QBs from both ends of the spectrum. He will have the ability to pick between Orton and Tebow. I'll go out on a limb here and say he likes Tebow, who is a fairly physically well built player and as mobile and quick thinking which fits Mularkey's penchant for trick plays.
2. Patrick Peterson - The defensive side of the ball is horrible and Champ Bailey needs to be replaced.
Patrick Peterson is a great fit right here.
2a. The running game has been horrific for the broncos and I could see Ingram going here as well.

Buffalo Bills -- Chan Gailey -- The Bills are surprisingly unlucky. They have a DB who last year was tied for the lead in INTs with 9. a fairly good D line that could be improved and Shawne Merriman just announced he'll be back next year. The offensive side of the ball could be pretty good next year if Spiller is used more and the receivers step up again. Plus I see a hilarious scenario of Alex Smith being signed by Buffalo or Miami and for the sake of this mock he lands in Buffalo. Leaving the depth chart at Fitzpatrick, A.Smith, Brohm
3. A. J. Green could easily slide right in here and take over for Lee Evans and line up across from Steven Johnson.

Cincinnati Bengals -- Josh McDaniels/Mike Mularkey -- McDaniels still has enough "genius of Bill Belichick" aura on him to land a HC job again even after the horrible debacle in Denver. Mularkey is a possibility here too, Mike Brown will want a offensive minded coach this time around.
The Bengals WR corp looks really good without TO or Ocho in the mix, I don't think Mike Brown would allow the G.M. to go for a QB just for the sake of continuity. Palmer was 30 yards shy of his 3rd 4,000 yard passing performance but he also threw 20 picks in a season they all but abandoned the run heavy style that won the division last year. The Bengals will probably try to balance things out next year but there is a good chance Benson could leave in free agency, I could easily see the Bengals going after a RB if Benson leaves or a DE.
4. Mark Ingram, great after contact goes out of his way to hit defenders.
4a. It's been suggested that the Bengals would go for a DE top compliment Karlos Dunlap and Fairley will probably be available here.

Arizona Cardinals -- Ken Whisenhunt -- The cardinals defense has been absolutely atrocious this year and with rumors swirling that Joey Porter will be out after only 1 year see it completely likely they go for the defensive side here.
5. Von Miller would fix one of the biggest needs for the cards. With an impact player like Miller on the field the secondary would be able to make a lot more plays

Cleveland Browns -- Jon Gruden/Rob Ryan -- With Gruden's future in a cloudy haze we'll say that Ryan lands the gig thanks to an in house search.
A fun fact I learned earlier today was that the Browns hadn't allowed more then 28 points by an opponent all year until today's blowout loss to the Steelers. Ryan will want all the help he can get on the offensive side of the ball.
6. Julio Jones would provide a big play threat that the Browns lack, Both the running and passing game would benefit from a guy like Jones.

San Francisco 49ers -- Jim Harbaugh/Brian Shottenheimer -- With Harbaugh "almost certainly" leaving Stanford he will either land at Michigan or with the 9ers. RichRod's future in Ann Arbor is anything but secure and I could easily see us going for a hungry offensive coordinator like Brian.

7. Both Mallett and Gabbert are likely to be picked here. Whichever player declares the 9ers will draft him unless they opt to go the developmental route and use a later pick on Pat Devlin at that point.
Ryan Mallet gets my vote here, looking at the huge jump in completion percentage from last year, near identical attempts and 10% improvement I can't say I would want a guy like that. I've admittedly only watched 1 Arkansas game this year but he really impressed me, I can't recall the opponent but it was the game he hid the ball behind his back and hit the receiver on the seam route for a big gain, maybe td.

Some notes.
1. Yes defense really dominated this mock but this is why I included likely HC candidates and what direction they would probably go.
2. The Lions really screwed themselves with that 4 game win streak, they are in dire need of a great CB. If it looks like Jenoris Jenkins and Amukamara could come off the board they will probably pull the trigger on a trade to insure they get their hands on Amukamara so Detroit could fubar the top 10 by doing that.
3. Another possible development would be Justin Blackmon declaring for the draft and despite being a possible late first rounder/early second if not mistaken I could see his numbers and hype vaulting him into the top 10 -- possibly into the Browns pick, Blackmon is definitely an upgrade from Jones who is a bit more lanky and less imposing.

[ Edited by sfout on Jan 3, 2011 at 00:30:52 ]

Originally posted by sfout:


San Francisco 49ers -- Jim Harbaugh/Brian Shottenheimer -- With Harbaugh "almost certainly" leaving Stanford he will either land at Michigan or with the 9ers. RichRod's future in Ann Arbor is anything but secure and I could easily see us going for a hungry offensive coordinator like Brian.

7. Both Mallett and Gabbert are likely to be picked here. Whichever player declares the 9ers will draft him unless they opt to go the developmental route and use a later pick on Pat Devlin at that point.
Ryan Mallet gets my vote here, looking at the huge jump in completion percentage from last year, near identical attempts and 10% improvement I can't say I would want a guy like that. I've admittedly only watched 1 Arkansas game this year but he really impressed me, I can't recall the opponent but it was the game he hid the ball behind his back and hit the receiver on the seam route for a big gain, maybe td.

Some notes.
1. Yes defense really dominated this mock but this is why I included likely HC candidates and what direction they would probably go.
2. The Lions really screwed themselves with that 4 game win streak, they are in dire need of a great CB. If it looks like Jenoris Jenkins and Amukamara could come off the board they will probably pull the trigger on a trade to insure they get their hands on Amukamara so Detroit could fubar the top 10 by doing that.
3. Another possible development would be Justin Blackmon declaring for the draft and despite being a possible late first rounder/early second if not mistaken I could see his numbers and hype vaulting him into the top 10 -- possibly into the Browns pick, Blackmon is definitely an upgrade from Jones who is a bit more lanky and less imposing.

Ryan Mallet doesn't fit the kind of offense those coaches would put in. He is not a West Coast QB.

[ Edited by Jcool on Jan 3, 2011 at 00:32:59 ]

Mallett is physically identical to Luck but less mobile. This forums obsession with WCO is infuratiing, What "disqualifies" Mallet or Gabbert as WCO QBs? Shottenheimer's offense definitely isn't typical WCO and the whole point of the draft is to mold the player to your sytem.

Edit: Instead of coming in here with a one liner. Come back with a counter answer. What first round qb would be worth our look? Because sadly there are only 4 of them and once you get out of the top 4 Pat Devlin, Jerrod Johnson, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton are the next group to evaluate. So by all means show me this prototypical godsend WCO QB.

[ Edited by sfout on Jan 3, 2011 at 00:45:59 ]

My guess is Von Miller will not be picked that high, someone will take a combine freak like Robert Quinn over him and Luck will most likely declare with Harbaugh leaving Stanford and millions of dollars on the table. Also Cinci will probably hire Mike Zimmer to replace Marvin Lewis since they like his coaching future and their owner is cheap.

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
My guess is Von Miller will not be picked that high, someone will take a combine freak like Robert Quinn over him and Luck will most likely declare with Harbaugh leaving Stanford and millions of dollars on the table. Also Cinci will probably hire Mike Zimmer to replace Marvin Lewis since they like his coaching future and their owner is cheap.

I do forget about Quinn a lot with him missing the season, however that still fills the positional selection like I said. Yea Von will probably go later but I was going off of a need of AZ. The coaching was just me putting it out there some possible directions the teams would go in.

Originally posted by sfout:
Mallett is physically identical to Luck but less mobile. This forums obsession with WCO is infuratiing, What "disqualifies" Mallet or Gabbert as WCO QBs? Shottenheimer's offense definitely isn't typical WCO and the whole point of the draft is to mold the player to your sytem.

Edit: Instead of coming in here with a one liner. Come back with a counter answer. What first round qb would be worth our look? Because sadly there are only 4 of them and once you get out of the top 4 Pat Devlin, Jerrod Johnson, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton are the next group to evaluate. So by all means show me this prototypical godsend WCO QB.

Devlin would probably be perfect for the WCO, Dalton too, and Stanzi if he consistently is able to make good decisions(he'll take some time on the bench to develop). Locker is your prototypical WCO QB imo, basically played in a WCO under Sarkisian I believe but he's still not great at reading defenses. I think Gabbert could do well in a WCO because he's accurate and mobile. Luck obviously could play in a WCO, basically plays in an altered WCO now under Harbaugh. Newton is going to take a while to develop and is more of a deep passer with play action and the threat of him running, and Mallett is also more of a long passer.

I already said in my 2nd mock draft(you probably didnt read it though) that Mallett would probably be best under a HC like Mularkey who would run the ball and then use a lot of play action. But honestly, I don't know if that's a good idea. The top coaches on the market are mostly WCO guys, we have footage of Walsh installing the WCO, and the benefit of having a system like the WCO instead of a coach who has his own offense is with the WCO you can usually plug in a new OC who runs the same system and the terminology is the same. If it doesn't work out, or you need to change coordinators, no big deal. If you have to change from Martz to a guy like Jimmy Raye, you wind up with everyone learning new stuff and not being sure of what they're doing.

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by sfout:
Mallett is physically identical to Luck but less mobile. This forums obsession with WCO is infuratiing, What "disqualifies" Mallet or Gabbert as WCO QBs? Shottenheimer's offense definitely isn't typical WCO and the whole point of the draft is to mold the player to your sytem.

Edit: Instead of coming in here with a one liner. Come back with a counter answer. What first round qb would be worth our look? Because sadly there are only 4 of them and once you get out of the top 4 Pat Devlin, Jerrod Johnson, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton are the next group to evaluate. So by all means show me this prototypical godsend WCO QB.

Devlin would probably be perfect for the WCO, Dalton too, and Stanzi if he consistently is able to make good decisions(he'll take some time on the bench to develop). Locker is your prototypical WCO QB imo, basically played in a WCO under Sarkisian I believe but he's still not great at reading defenses. I think Gabbert could do well in a WCO because he's accurate and mobile. Luck obviously could play in a WCO, basically plays in an altered WCO now under Harbaugh. Newton is going to take a while to develop and is more of a deep passer with play action and the threat of him running, and Mallett is also more of a long passer.

I already said in my 2nd mock draft(you probably didnt read it though) that Mallett would probably be best under a HC like Mularkey who would run the ball and then use a lot of play action. But honestly, I don't know if that's a good idea. The top coaches on the market are mostly WCO guys, we have footage of Walsh installing the WCO, and the benefit of having a system like the WCO instead of a coach who has his own offense is with the WCO you can usually plug in a new OC who runs the same system and the terminology is the same. If it doesn't work out, or you need to change coordinators, no big deal. If you have to change from Martz to a guy like Jimmy Raye, you wind up with everyone learning new stuff and not being sure of what they're doing.

If we could guarantee a shot at Devlin in middle rounds I would be all over the idea of drafting Amukamara in the first and a DE like J,J. Watt or Cam Heyward or even a WR like Floyd or Binns in the second but thats only if we shelled out Morgan,

Edit: No I did not read your mock yet. I did neglect to note that Delvin has a similar over the top release to Mallett but Devlin's is more compact and with the comparable heights either one of them would limit tipped passes.

[ Edited by sfout on Jan 3, 2011 at 01:51:50 ]

Yikes you are greatly over valuing Mark Ingram.

Originally posted by jojomellon:
Yikes you are greatly over valuing Mark Ingram.

Yea was gonna comment on that. He's likely not to go in the first 25 with top ten completely out.

Just guessing off of a team need, and Williams and Ingram are top backs that could be in the draft next year so I threw them in there.

jesus...could you make that any harder to read?

Originally posted by sfout:
Mallett is physically identical to Luck but less mobile. This forums obsession with WCO is infuratiing, What "disqualifies" Mallet or Gabbert as WCO QBs? Shottenheimer's offense definitely isn't typical WCO and the whole point of the draft is to mold the player to your sytem.

Edit: Instead of coming in here with a one liner. Come back with a counter answer. What first round qb would be worth our look? Because sadly there are only 4 of them and once you get out of the top 4 Pat Devlin, Jerrod Johnson, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton are the next group to evaluate. So by all means show me this prototypical godsend WCO QB.

Nick Foles would be a very good WCO QB.

And to compare Mallett to Luck is garbage. Luck has tremendous accuracy all over the field. He has great touch and is able to hit his receivers in stride - something very valuable in the WCO so receivers can get YAC.

Mallett is big and tall and has a gun but his accuracy isn't as good as his numbers indicate. His receivers often have to adjust for the ball and he tends to put too much on his shorter passes which makes it harder to catch and leads to more balls bouncing up in the air for picks - especially in the NFL.

Jerrod Johnson doesn't belong on that list by the way.

I just don't see Buffalo taking a WR there. THeir passing offense has been solid all year. I think they go DE or DT.

Originally posted by niner4life21:
I just don't see Buffalo taking a WR there. THeir passing offense has been solid all year. I think they go DE or DT.

aj green is a playmaker...and this year's d-line class is deep enough to wait til the 2nd-round.

Originally posted by genus49:
jesus...could you make that any harder to read?