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MadDog's Final Big Board: The Big 255

Great work MD. Like others have said already, I use the work you and OTC do for all my draft studies. Every year my buddies think I actually know something about the draft, but they don't realize that I've been soaking up all the knowledge this board offers. Thanks for all the hard work.

I agree with you that Brown will be a fast riser, but I think Al's affinity for USC results in Brown being drafted at #8.
Solid effort, as always, MadDog.

Reward yourself with a cold one (or two).
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
MD,
From your board, it doesn't appear the Niners would have much to gain by trading down from the 1st round or trading up in second. The players the Niners would seem to target are bunched close together. For instance, I'm not sure they're interested in Bruce Campbell.

Would your first choice be OT then Iupati?

If the Niners traded down in the first, they'd have to be targetting Rodger Saffold. He's been terrific this offseason, has good size, and would handle the RT position fairly easily. It would be a solid selection in the mid-late 20's. He will be a first rounder.

I think experimenting with Iupati as a tackle is a mistake. The guy will be a killer guard, and I wouldn't mess with his position.

MD, I didn't state my question well. Would your first choice for the Niners be an OT with the #13 pick, then Iupati at #17?

Sorry to be so elusive. It always depends who is still on the board. I think the Niners have to really be careful about passing on one of the top OT's at 13, if they are on the board.

Iupati is great value at 17. Once again, it really depends who is on the board when the team makes a choice.

If you give me some limited parameters, I can attempt to answer your question more specifically.
Originally posted by jimbagg:
Solid effort, as always, MadDog.

Reward yourself with a cold one (or two).

You, too. Although, I might just fall asleep.
Man, I hope you are right. Even we get three of those first four picks (especially Bulaga, E. Thomas and C. Thomas), I'd be thrilled beyond belief.

And even if it goes a slightly different way, if your draft order is even CLOSE to correct, we should have some excellent options, with hopefully many of the potential pitfalls being either long gone, or way off the charts as bad "value" picks so we can avoid falling into some of those traps.

But more and more, it's looking like some combo of a good OT and either E. Thomas or J. Haden will be there for us, and that would be an excellent first round.
[ Edited by TexasNiner on Apr 22, 2010 at 9:40 AM ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Assuming that our pick numbers are the actual picks that we would take the following picks would be the Niners draft:

13. B. Bulaga OT
17. Earl Thomas S/CB
49. P. Robinson CB
79. Cam Thomas NT
113. M. Newhouse OG
182. Hal Davis OLB
206. P. Stoudamire CB
224. Matt Mayberry ILB

I can live with the first five picks, but no nothing about the last three picks

Hall Davis is a small school, hybrid DE/OLB that a lot of teams have expressed interest in. He visited the Niners this draft season. Good size at 6'4", 270 pounds. Was double-teamed on nearly every down last season, but was still productive. Big upside.

Patrick Stoudamire is a good-sized CB (5'11, 205 pounds), also from a small school, Western Illinois. He was a second team All-American this year in the smaller school ranks. Solid cover guy, with outstanding leadership. Smart kid.

Matt Mayberry is one of those Big Ten linebackers, playing at Indiana. He's big enough to play the Ted at 6'2", 245 pounds, but fast enough to play the Mike, in sub 4.6 speed. Just a fast, lunchpail, backup to both ILB positions, and a terrific hustle guy that will heavily play special teams.

Did you take that from the 4/11/10 Mock I did? Haha. I like Mayberry -- instant ST's contributor for sure. He's a little smaller than that, but lunchpail guy, no doubt. Plus, very productive for being on a bad team. Could be a steal.

Mayberry is basically Ulbrich with near-track speed. (4.5's at his pro-day).
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 22, 2010 at 10:20 AM ]
MadDog
Hey I have not had a chance to look at your bigboard Just yet. (I will momentarily) Do you feel that there is any chance that in the 4th round we would think about grabbing "Amari Spive" (sp) the cornerback from Iowa that shut down D.Thomas from Georgia Tech by himself in the Orange bowl? Just wondering your thoughts since historically you seem to be pretty dang accurate~! Thx MD
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Man, I hope you are right. Even we get three of those first four picks (especially Bulaga, E. Thomas and C. Thomas), I'd be thrilled beyond belief.

And even if it goes a slightly different way, if your draft order is even CLOSE to correct, we should have some excellent options, with hopefully many of the potential pitfalls being either long gone, or way off the charts as bad "value" picks so we can avoid falling into some of those traps.

But more and more, it's looking like some combo of a good OT and either E. Thomas or J. Haden will be there for us, and that would be an excellent first round.

Because this is a solid draft, we are going to draft two players who will help the team this year (Jimmy Clausen would not be one of them). Hopefully, one of the better OT's will fall into our laps at number 13, and we can close the door on this ongoing disaster. Won't that be nice?

Look for the Niners to be a 50-50 shot at moving down from their 17th if they get an OT at 13. A lot of teams want to move up into that area.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Assuming that our pick numbers are the actual picks that we would take the following picks would be the Niners draft:

13. B. Bulaga OT
17. Earl Thomas S/CB
49. P. Robinson CB
79. Cam Thomas NT
113. M. Newhouse OG
182. Hal Davis OLB
206. P. Stoudamire CB
224. Matt Mayberry ILB

I can live with the first five picks, but no nothing about the last three picks

Hall Davis is a small school, hybrid DE/OLB that a lot of teams have expressed interest in. He visited the Niners this draft season. Good size at 6'4", 270 pounds. Was double-teamed on nearly every down last season, but was still productive. Big upside.

Patrick Stoudamire is a good-sized CB (5'11, 205 pounds), also from a small school, Western Illinois. He was a second team All-American this year in the smaller school ranks. Solid cover guy, with outstanding leadership. Smart kid.

Matt Mayberry is one of those Big Ten linebackers, playing at Indiana. He's big enough to play the Ted at 6'2", 245 pounds, but fast enough to play the Mike, in sub 4.6 speed. Just a fast, lunchpail, backup to both ILB positions, and a terrific hustle guy that will heavily play special teams.

Did you take that from the 4/11/10 Mock I did? Haha. I like Mayberry -- instant ST's contributor for sure. He's a little smaller than that, but lunchpail guy, no doubt. Plus, very productive for being on a bad team. Could be a steal.

Mayberry is basically Ulbrich with near-track speed. (4.5's at his pro-day).

He's a heck of a player, and that speed is impressive. We need a special teams stud at LB, to go along with McKillop.
Originally posted by tmpluff:
MadDog
Hey I have not had a chance to look at your bigboard Just yet. (I will momentarily) Do you feel that there is any chance that in the 4th round we would think about grabbing "Amari Spive" (sp) the cornerback from Iowa that shut down D.Thomas from Georgia Tech by himself in the Orange bowl? Just wondering your thoughts since historically you seem to be pretty dang accurate~! Thx MD

I think Spievey will be off the board by the 113th pick. I see him as a late 3rd rounder, somewhere drafted between 80-95. Good size, speed, physical play combo. I like the kid a lot, but I think the Niners will load up on a corner by their 79th pick. Maybe the team looks at him with the 79th.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Man, I hope you are right. Even we get three of those first four picks (especially Bulaga, E. Thomas and C. Thomas), I'd be thrilled beyond belief.

And even if it goes a slightly different way, if your draft order is even CLOSE to correct, we should have some excellent options, with hopefully many of the potential pitfalls being either long gone, or way off the charts as bad "value" picks so we can avoid falling into some of those traps.

But more and more, it's looking like some combo of a good OT and either E. Thomas or J. Haden will be there for us, and that would be an excellent first round.

Because this is a solid draft, we are going to draft two players who will help the team this year (Jimmy Clausen would not be one of them). Hopefully, one of the better OT's will fall into our laps at number 13, and we can close the door on this ongoing disaster. Won't that be nice?

Look for the Niners to be a 50-50 shot at moving down from their 17th if they get an OT at 13. A lot of teams want to move up into that area.
That is the way I see it as well. Getting their guy for RT at 13 is the key to the entire draft. IF they get that guy, they can go BPA for the best quality available, and that might well allow them to pick up an extra 3rd round pick.

BPA is still a good strategy for the 49ers. They have decent, not great, talent at a number of spots where BPA could be an upgrade, either as a starter or depth. Hence, guys like Baas, Clements, Sopoaga, McDonald, could lose their spot if the right guy fell to the 49ers.

I don't see them moving back with both 13 and 17 but I would not be at all surprised to see this draft just blow up in terms of form. There are SO many players of similar value spread throughout the upper 30% that whether you pick 25 of 35 will not make a great deal of difference in terms of value.

As you, I also look forward to the draft each year. However, this one has an extra attraction for me, not just because of the new format, although I like that, but also because of the depth at so many positions. It could get pretty wild between now and midnight Friday.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Merry Christmas to all, in a few hours. It's the Big Boy Holiday Season, so send your wives and children to the mall, bring the extra TV into the computer room, and bring it on this weekend. Are you ready for some football?????

I will be around from Picks 8-255. Hanging with my Browns friends at a local sports bar on Thursday night, just long enough to mock their 7th overall. Hopefully, the Niners won't do something like trade up....unless it is for Eric Berry.

The following Big Board is the complete board, covering all 255 picks. I have a current 5 year winning streak over all the major big dogs in the industry (more picks overall being selected in the entire draft), even better than Mel's hair. I expect the streak to crash and burn at some point, but we'll see how badly the carnage appears in just a few days.

Once again, as always, thanks to all the board members who helped me craft this list over the last 11 months and 30 days. OTC (the Board Guru), Ghost, mayo, NinersGM, AB, BigWads, Darth, Jeff22, DaveWilcox, lamont, mbrock, KRS, SD (I love you brother...the Niners will beat 0-16 this year) PT, oldninersman and dude, and the professor, jimbagg, and many, many others who kicked the crap out of me, but sharpened this list in the process. I'd stack the brilliant minds on our Draft Board Forum against any in the NFL. Thanks for the fun ride.

Once again, this is not a full, pick-by-pick draft. There are going to be so many trades this year that our eyes will be bulging, and our Round by Round sheets will have more ink from crossed out team names than the original printer ink. So, the projection is based on slotting. I'm searching for a ballpark estimate for the Niners in Round 4, not a specific person.

However, I have put the Niners selections in the draft in bold. It is very challenging to compose a first round mock, or any mock for that manner, since I believe there will be a high amount of movement. For the first time in a LONG TIME, there appears to be as many teams that want to move up as down. I just see the board playing out something like the below scenario.

Have fun, and enjoy the ride. Cheers.

2010 NFL Draft 255 Big Board
Pick Player School Position
1 Sam Bradford* Oklahoma QB
2 Ndamukong Suh Nebraska DT
3 Gerald McCoy Oklahoma DT
4 Trent Williams Oklahoma OT
5 Russell Okung Oklahoma State OT
6 Jimmy Clausen* Notre Dame QB
7 Eric Berry* Tennesseee S
8 Anthony Davis* Rutgers OT
9 Charles Brown USC OT
10 Derrick Morgan* Georgia Tech DE
11 CJ Spiller Clemson RB
12 Joe Haden* Florida CB
13 Bryan Bulaga* Iowa OT
14 Jason Pierre-Paul* South Florida DE
15 Rolando McClain Alabama LB
16 Kyle Wilson Boise St CB
17 Earl Thomas* Texas S/CB
18 Mike Iupati Idaho G
19 Maurkice Pouncey* Florida C
20 Ryan Matthews* Fresno State RB
21 Dez Bryant* Oklahoma State WR
22 Dan Williams Tennessee DT
23 Jared Odrick Penn State DT
24 Rodger Saffold Indiana OT
25 Demaryius Thomas* Georgia Tech WR
26 Brandon Graham Michigan DE/OLB
27 Sergio Kindle Texas DE
28 Bruce Campbell* Maryland OT
29 Devin McCourty Rutgers CB
30 Tim Tebow Florida QB
31 Kareem Jackson* Alabama CB
32 Sean Weatherspoon Missouri LB
33 Arrelious Benn* Illinois WR
34 Jahvid Best* Cal RB
35 Taylor Mays USC S
36 Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma TE
37 Everson Griffen* USC DE
38 Colt McCoy Texas QB
39 Tyson Alualu Cal DE/DT
40 Morgan Burnett* Georgia Tech S
41 Terrence Cody Alabama DT
42 Golden Tate* Notre Dame WR
43 Daryl Washington TCU LB
44 Jerry Hughes TCU DE
45 Vladimir Ducasse Massachusetts G/OT
46 Chris Cook Virginia CB/FS
47 Brian Price* UCLA DT
48 Nate Allen South Florida S
49 Patrick Robinson Florida State CB
50 John Jerry Mississippi G/OT
51 Rob Gronkowski* Arizona TE
52 Brandon Ghee Wake Forest CB
53 Linval Joseph East Carolina DT
54 Dexter McCluster Mississippi RB/WR
55 Sean Lee Penn State LB
56 Jon Asamoah Illinois G
57 Dominique Franks* Oklahoma CB
58 Jason Worilds* Virginia Tech DE/OLB
59 Akwasi Owusu-Ansah Indiana (Pa.) CB
60 Carlos Dunlap* Florida DE
61 Koa Misi Utah DE/OLB
62 Montario Hardesty Tennessee RB
63 Lamarr Houston Texas DT
64 Damian Williams* USC WR
65 Toby Gerhart* Stanford RB
66 Ricky Sapp* Clemson DE/OLB
67 Aaron Hernandez* Florida TE
68 Dorin Dickerson Pittsburgh TE/WR
69 Jimmy Graham Miami TE
70 Carlton Mitchell South Florida WR
71 Geno Atkins Georgia DT
72 Corey Wootton Northwestern DE
73 Chad Jones* LSU S
74 John Skelton Fordham QB
75 Jacoby Ford Clemson WR
76 Thaddeus Gibson* Ohio State OLB
77 Torrell Troup Central Florida DT
78 Jared Veldheer Hillsdale OT
79 Cam Thomas North Carolina DT
80 Jonathan Dwyer* Georgia Tech RB
81 Marcus Easley UConn WR
82 Jamar Chaney Mississippi St LB
83 Taylor Price Ohio WR
84 Major Wright* Florida S
85 Ben Tate Auburn RB
86 Jerome Murphy South Florida CB
87 Zane Beadles Utah G
88 Mitch Petrus Arkansas G
89 Amari Spievey* Iowa CB
90 Alex Carrington Arkansas St DE
91 Jeff Owens Georgia DT
92 Brandon LaFell LSU WR
93 Dennis Pitta BYU TE
94 Matt Tennant Boston College C
95 Donald Butler Washington LB
96 Reshad Jones* Georgia S
97 Earl Mitchell Arizona DT
98 Myron Lewis Vanderbilt CB
99 Ed Dickson Oregon TE
100 Eric Decker Minnesota WR
101 Navorro Bowman* Penn State LB
102 Javier Arenas Alabama CB/PR
103 TJ Ward Oregon S
104 Ramon Harewood Morehouse College OT
105 Jonathan Crompton Tennessee QB
106 Selvish Capers West Virginia OT
107 Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati WR
108 Brandon Spikes Florida LB
109 Anthony Dixon Mississippi St RB
110 Al Woods LSU DT
111 Quentin Scott Northern Iowa S
112 Andre Roberts Citadel WR
113 Marshall Newhouse TCU G
114 Arthur Moats James Madison DE/OLB
115 Austen Lane Murray State DE
116 Kam Chancellor Virginia Tech S
117 Jevan Snead* Mississippi QB
118 Nolan Carroll Maryland CB
119 Blair White Michigan St WR
120 Jordan Shipley Texas WR
121 Eric Norwood South Carolina DE/OLB
122 Tony Pike Cincinnati QB
123 Robert Johnson* Utah S
124 Mike Neal Purdue DE/DT
125 Alterraun Verner UCLA CB
126 Perrish Cox Oklahoma State CB
127 Clay Harbor Missouri State TE
128 Darrell Stuckey Kansas S
129 Jameson Konz Kent State LB/S/WR
130 Jarrett Brown West Virginia QB
131 Jason Fox Miami OT
132 Robert McClain Connecticut CB
133 D'Anthony Smith Louisiana Tech DT
134 Danny Batten South Dakota St DE
135 Corey Peters Kentucky DT
136 Adrian Tracy William and Mary DE/LB
137 Rennie Curran* Georgia LB
138 Mike Johnson Alabama G
139 Arthur Jones Syracuse DT
140 Ed Wang Virginia Tech OT
141 Kevin Thomas USC CB
142 Deji Karim Southern Illinois RB
143 Tony Washington Abilene Christian OT
144 Dekota Watson Florida State LB
145 Perry Riley LSU LB
146 Ted Larsen NC State C
147 Daniel Te'o-Nesheim Washington DE/OLB
148 Jermaine Cunningham Florida DE
149 JD Walton Baylor C
150 Mike Williams Syracuse WR
151 Trindon Holliday LSU WR/KR
152 Antonio Brown* Central Michigan WR
153 Jeremy Williams Tulane WR
154 Kyle Williams Arizona St WR
155 AJ Edds Iowa LB
156 Emmanuel Sanders SMU WR
157 Legarrette Blount Oregon RB
158 Nate Collins Virginia DT
159 Dezmon Briscoe* Kansas WR
160 Ben Burney Colorado CB
161 Walter McFadden Auburn CB
162 Joe Webb UAB WR
163 Myron Rolle Florida State S
164 Travis Goethel Arizona St LB
165 AJ Jefferson Fresno State CB
166 Lindsey Witten UConn DE
167 Riley Cooper Florida WR
168 Joe McKnight USC RB
169 CJ Wilson East Carolina DE
170 Shelley Smith Colorado St G
171 Kyle Calloway Iowa OT/G
172 Donovan Warren* Michigan CB
173 Eric Olsen Notre Dame C
174 Pat Angerer Iowa LB
175 Clifton Geathers South Carolina DE/DT
176 Tony Moeaki Iowa TE
177 Garrett Graham Wisconsin TE/FB
178 Zoltan Mesko Michigan P
179 Syd'Quan Thompson Cal CB
180 Ciron Black LSU OT
181 Shawn Lauvao Arizona St G
182 Hall Davis Louisiana-Lafayette DE/OLB
183 Armanti Edwards Appalachian St QB/WR
184 O'Brien Schofield Wisconsin LB
185 Kurt Coleman Ohio State S
186 Fendi Onobun Houston TE
187 Levi Brown Troy QB
188 Lonyae Miller Fresno State RB
189 Simoni Lawrence Minnesota LB
190 Anthony McCoy USC TE
191 Vincent Rey Duke LB
192 Chris McCoy Middle Tennessee St DE/LB
193 Kevin Basped Nevada DE/OLB
194 Nate Byham Pittsburgh TE
195 Leigh Tiffin Alabama K
196 Greg Hardy Mississippi DE
197 David Gettis Baylor WR
198 James Starks Buffalo RB
199 Dan LeFevour Central Michigan QB
200 Scott Long Louisville WR
201 Brent Bowden Virginia Tech P
202 Chris Maragos Wisconsin S
203 George Johnson Rutgers DE
204 Walter Thurmond Oregon CB
205 Mike Kafka Northwestern QB
206 Patrick Stoudamire Western Illinois CB
207 Larry Asante Nebraska S
208 Phillip Dillard Nebraska LB
209 LeRoy Vann Florida A&M WR/CB
210 Andrew Tyshovnytsky Fordham OT/G
211 Nic Richmond TCU OT
212 Roddrick Muckelroy Texas LB
213 J'Marcus Webb West Texas A&M OT
214 Mickey Shuler Penn State TE
215 Sean Lissemore William and Mary DT
216 Chris Campbell Western Illinois OT
217 Chris McGaha Arizona St WR
218 Tim Knicky Stephen F. Austin LB
219 Aleric Mullins North Carolina DT
220 Freddie Barnes Bowling Green WR
221 Kavell Conner Clemson LB
222 Rashawn Jackson Virginia FB
223 Kevin Matthews Texas A&M C
224 Matt Mayberry Indiana LB
225 David Reed Utah WR
226 Duke Calhoun Memphis WR
227 Joshua Moore Kansas St CB
228 Zac Robinson Oklahoma State QB
229 Scott Sicko New Hampshire TE
230 Charlie Tanner Texas G
231 RJ Stanford Utah CB
232 Jeromy Miles Massachusetts S
233 Reggie Stephens Iowa St G
234 Clint Gresham TCU LS
235 David Pender Purdue CB
236 David Howard Brown DT
237 Anthony Levine Tennessee St S
238 Joe Hawley UNLV C/G
239 Jeremy Horne Massachusetts WR
240 Brandon Banks Kansas St WR/KR
241 Garrett Lindholm Tarleton St K
242 Ray Fisher Indiana CB/WR
243 Tim Hiller Western Michigan QB
244 Tyler Eastman Maine OT
245 Mike Newton Buffalo S
246 Alfonso Smith Kentucky RB
247 Dane Fletcher Montana St LB
248 Darian Stewart South Carolina S
249 Cody Grimm Virginia Tech S
250 Matt Clapp Oklahoma FB
251 Michael Hoomanawanui Illinois TE
252 Matt Nichols Eastern Washington QB
253 Kyle McCarthy Notre Dame S
254 John Conner Kentucky FB
255 Terrell Hudgins Elon WR

Just want to save a copy for comparison against the big dogs.
MD, you should coordinate with the webmaster for a live chat hour window as it seems as though that's what this thread has turned into.

Too late for this year.
  • fryet
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MadDog, after the draft is over, can you post who you would have taken if you were the 49ers? It would be fun to compare your success with the 49er drafting organization. I remember the year that you were spot on about all of the 3rd and 4th round picks that the 49ers wasted (like Joe Cohen). I can't remember all of the picks, but I think they may have all failed.
Originally posted by Joecool:
MD, you should coordinate with the webmaster for a live chat hour window as it seems as though that's what this thread has turned into.

Too late for this year.

Maybe next year. It would be up to the webmaster. I'll be around this whole weekend, and answering questions that people may have.