Here is my last draft before draft day. And yes, I think that the 49ers will pass twice on both Spiller and Clausen (who will fall to the late first round).
1. Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. I don't think the Rams can pass up a QB again, even if he is not the BPA. It would be wise for the Rams to make a draft day Swap with Cleveland if Clausen is available at 7 (if they think Clausen can be the guy).
2. Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska. While Suh is probably the BPA, and Jim Swartz, as a former defensive coordinator, likely covets him, the pick is not the best choice. The Lions traded for Corey Williams and both he and Suh are best suited for the undertackle position, not the nose. Sammy Lee-Hill did a good job as a rookie on the nose, so DT isn't really a priority. Meanwhile their young QB's blind side is protected by a stiff. The pick should be Russell Okung.
3. Bucs - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma. No brainer.
4. Redskins - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St. This is another no brainer. If the Lions do the smart thing, the Redskins will likely go with Trent Williams, though they may look at Suh / McCoy as a DE.
5. K.C. - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. This is a major reach, but Scott Pioli has demonstrated he is not averse to selecting a high first rounder 5-10 slots before they are rated (see Tyson Jackson). The Chiefs would love to trade the pick and move back, which may be possible if the Lions select Okung and start a run on OT's.
6. Seattle - Eric Berry, FS, Tenn. A lot of people think this pick will be Trent Williams, but I think Carroll will go BPA and try to land Charles Brown from USC at 14. Another combo might be Williams at 6 and Taylor Mayes at 14. However, that would be a reach for Mayes, and Brown is a better pure LT than Williams anyway.
7. Cleveland - Derrick Morgan, OLB, Georgia Tech. This pick will probably be traded and end up being either Trent Williams or Jimmy Clausen. I would not be surprised at all to see a swap with the Rams here.
8. Raiders - Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland. Al continues his pattern of drafting an Olympic track and field team.
9. Bills - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma. The Bills might be tempted to take Jimmy Clausen, but I get the feeling they don't like him. Of course they might be posturing, but there are some legitimate concerns about Clausen's character, and he might make a monumental slide on draft day.
10. Jags - Joe Haden, CB, Florida. Many believe they will take a DE, but they signed Aaron Kampman in the off season and might be hoping Derick Harvey or Quentin Groves can provide more pressure with Kampman taking attention on the other side. Moreover, the Jags only have one good (and aging corner) in a division that likes to throw the ball around.
11. Broncos - Dan Williams, NT, Tenn. Maybe a slight reach, but a good NT is essential to any 3-4 defense. This is a major upgrade over Ronald Fields. Some have them taking Rolando McClain, but he is not a Ted backer and they already have D.J. Williams.
12. Dolphins - Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB, South Florida. I think the Phins will trade the pick to the Eagles who have the picks to trade (McNabb trade) and they will select Earl Thomas. But if they can't trade out and recoup the picks the lost in the Marshall trade, I think they will take a rush linebacker.
13. 49ers - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers. Davis is probably the second best tackle in the draft, but character concerns will drop him into the 49ers laps. Singletary should be able to motivate him.
14. Seattle - Charles Brown, OT, USC. Pete Carroll gets his own guy.
15. Giants - Earl Thomas, FS / CB, Texas. If the Eagles don't trade up the Giants should take Thomas, as their secondary was terrible last year. They might look at Rolando McClain (better fit in 3-4), or Bryan Price.
16. Titans - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise St. The Titans could use youth across from Courtland Finnegan. They might opt for a DE due to the loss of Vanden Bosh - Everson Griffen or Carlos Dunlap?
17. 49ers - Brandon Graham - OLB, Michigan. I think Graham is the best DE / OLB in the draft and is BPA here insofar as the 49ers are concerned. Mike Iupati is another option. Dez Bryant has character issues and doesn't fit a need. Rolando McClain is a Mike backer, not a Ted (which the 49ers need). C.J. Spiller is the most overrated player in the zone.
Other 49er picks
2. Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forrest. Good size, speed, hips. Big upside.
3. Mike Johnson, G. Alabama, or Mitch Petrus G, Arkansas. They need a replacement for Baas.
4. Torrel Troup, NT, Central Florida. A nose tackle to groom.
Rounds 6-7 = BPA.
[ Edited by tap11 on Apr 18, 2010 at 5:20 PM ]