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OT Draft Data....

Ok so check it out guys. In case you didn't read it, Sando had a nice piece up on the NFC West blog on ESPN the other day....
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/16698/mailbag-elite-tackles-found-early

The really compelling part of this is the data for Offensive Tackles.
Average draft position of an Offensive Tackle with 3+ pro bowls in the NFL is 2.6!
The next closest position is Running Back with an average draft position (3+ pro bowls) of 10.3.
For every other position, the top players were drafted, on average, either late in the first round/early second round or much later than that even.

The reason why the OT data interests me is becuase with a relative position of 2.6 it leaves little room for deviation. Meaning, there likely aren't many (if any) Pro Bowl OTs in the league taken outside of the top 10 because that would mean all of the other pro bowlers would absolutely need to be taken at #1 overall in order to keep that average down as low as it is.

So basically what this says is that OTs, when taken early in the draft, have the highest rate of success of any position - they are the "most guaranteed" to play well and meet expectations.

Now that being said, combine this with our need to add another good Tackle and you gotta wonder...is it worth our while to trade up into the top 5 and grab a stud?
Tell me what you think.
[ Edited by scopur49er on Apr 12, 2010 at 11:50 AM ]
No trading
IMO I don't think its worth trading that high for any player. That combine with the fact that this draft class is pretty rich at the top with tackles and that there isn't a huge difference in many scouts minds between the #1 & #4 tackle in the class. I'm hopeful that there will still be one or two good players left at the tackle position where we select at 13 or 17. If there isn't then they need to take the best player available. Trading and/or drafting for a position of need usually leads to over drafting or reaching.
Nice post. IMO it says evaluating the tackle position is the easiest of every position.
Originally posted by 4DNinersSon:
IMO I don't think its worth trading that high for any player. That combine with the fact that this draft class is pretty rich at the top with tackles and that there isn't a huge difference in many scouts minds between the #1 & #4 tackle in the class. I'm hopeful that there will still be one or two good players left at the tackle position where we select at 13 or 17. If there isn't then they need to take the best player available. Trading and/or drafting for a position of need usually leads to over drafting or reaching.

Trading up to grab a Tackle with pro-bowl potential when...
a) That Tackle is the highest rated player on the board for that pick and;
b) It is an area of need
...equates to a pretty good move.

It is a position of need yes but he would also be the BPA.

I guess imo, I don't see us getting one of the top tier tackles in this draft with #13 or #17 and any tackle selected with either of those picks is more likely to be a reach than one that we grab with a top 5 pick if we were to trade up - that's what this data shows me. The top 5 guy is practically a lock to start right away and will likely develop into an excellent player. If we wait to take a tackle then we run the risk of grabbing a bust or just another mediocre lineman (of which we already have plenty).

There will certainly be good players left when our number comes up but I'm very much in the camp that the O-line is our biggest weakness right now and we need to be focused on it. If that means trading up to grab our guy then so be it.
[ Edited by scopur49er on Apr 12, 2010 at 12:20 PM ]
The only two OT's worth our 1st rounders are Okung and Williams.

No reaching for OT or any position for that matter. Let's continue building this team by adding good football players reguardless of the position they play.
In the last 3 pro-bowls, there have been 8 OT (note, this doesn't count OG or C) who have been picked after the 13th overall pick in the draft. In fact, all of these guys were 2nd rounders or later. They are: Matt Light Marcus McNeill, Chad Clifton, Michael Roos, Flozell Adams, Jason Peters, Jon Stinchomb and David Diehl. Seeing one statistic shouldn't convince us, or anyone to move up or down in the draft. The draft is a constantly shifting variable, and you have to make your decisions as they come, based on a variety of factors.
Originally posted by Niners23:
In the last 3 pro-bowls, there have been 8 OT (note, this doesn't count OG or C) who have been picked after the 13th overall pick in the draft. In fact, all of these guys were 2nd rounders or later. They are: Matt Light Marcus McNeill, Chad Clifton, Michael Roos, Flozell Adams, Jason Peters, Jon Stinchomb and David Diehl. Seeing one statistic shouldn't convince us, or anyone to move up or down in the draft. The draft is a constantly shifting variable, and you have to make your decisions as they come, based on a variety of factors.

I agree with you bro but this particular data point is hard to ignore.
While I'm sure a hundred different things are factored into a decision like this and it's certainly possible to grab a quality tackle later in the draft, this statistic basically tells us look, if you need an offensive tackle and you have the resources to move up into the top 5 you can virtually ensure you'll get a good one and practically eliminate the risk that he'll be a bust.
I realize the price is likely high to move up into the top 5 but man...it would be comforting to know that we have solidifed the line and given our offense the single biggest boost they can get.
You don't need a probowl tackle to go to the bowl that matters. Pro-bowl caliber is what you need. Someone that is near the top at his position but doesn't necessarily get voted in for whatever reason. Funny thing is, if your team gets better you get more pro-bowl votes, so Staley might have a chance to go if the 9ers are 12-4 next year.

Also, as far as probowl tackles go, they generally select LTs to play all tackle positions in the probowl, right? I don't remember with 100% certainty but I think there is only an Offensive Tackle category, they don't split it up by the Left and Right. Drafting a probowl RT is pretty difficult in that case.
Also, as far as offensive linemen go, top picks are much more easily remembered and I think people vote for them more on name than anything else. Most voters don't analyze tape of every OT before they vote. They vote for the big name guys. For linemen that is almost always the high draft picks.
Originally posted by Gavintech:
Also, as far as offensive linemen go, top picks are much more easily remembered and I think people vote for them more on name than anything else. Most voters don't analyze tape of every OT before they vote. They vote for the big name guys. For linemen that is almost always the high draft picks or occasionally a guy that wasn't drafted very high but is on a really good/popular team that year.
  • Wodwo
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Originally posted by scopur49er:

I agree with you bro but this particular data point is hard to ignore.
While I'm sure a hundred different things are factored into a decision like this and it's certainly possible to grab a quality tackle later in the draft, this statistic basically tells us look, if you need an offensive tackle and you have the resources to move up into the top 5 you can virtually ensure you'll get a good one and practically eliminate the risk that he'll be a bust.
I realize the price is likely high to move up into the top 5 but man...it would be comforting to know that we have solidifed the line and given our offense the single biggest boost they can get.

What's they saying...?

Lies, damn lies, and statistics...?
Originally posted by Draftology:
Nice post. IMO it says evaluating the tackle position is the easiest of every position.

This
Originally posted by Gavintech:
You don't need a probowl tackle to go to the bowl that matters. Pro-bowl caliber is what you need. Someone that is near the top at his position but doesn't necessarily get voted in for whatever reason. Funny thing is, if your team gets better you get more pro-bowl votes, so Staley might have a chance to go if the 9ers are 12-4 next year.

I agree with this. Top talent is the key.
[ Edited by Yetiman on Apr 12, 2010 at 5:17 PM ]
Originally posted by Yetiman:
Originally posted by Gavintech:
You don't need a probowl tackle to go to the bowl that matters. Pro-bowl caliber is what you need. Someone that is near the top at his position but doesn't necessarily get voted in for whatever reason. Funny thing is, if your team gets better you get more pro-bowl votes, so Staley might have a chance to go if the 9ers are 12-4 next year.

I agree with this. Top talent is the key.

True. Also, there are plenty of OT busts including top 5 picks such as Tony Mandarich (#2), Robert Gallery (#2), Levi Brown (#5), Mike Williams (#4) . . . Never reach for need, instead trade up or down to get good value.

I think there will be several good RT's available in the late 1st and through the 2nd round.