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Some Numbers To Chew On

Considering the OT discussion will be ongoing till day 2 of the draft I decided to look up previous drafts for some "trends". Considering we are needing a RT I wanted to see where dedicated RT's had routinely gone the past few years. Obviously a run at OT would make us have to pull the trigger quickly but if a run doesn't happen would we be safe to trade back 5-8 spots and still be able to land a guy? Here are the last 4 drafts and where all OT's have been taken up until the mid 2nd.

2009
#2 LT-Jason Smith
#6 RT/OG-Andre Smith
#8 LT-Eugene Monroe
#23 RT-Mike Oher
#39 RT-Eben Britton
#54 RT-Phil Loadholt
#58 LT-Sebastian Vollmer

2008
#1 LT Jake Long
#12 LT Ryan Clady
#14 LT Chris Williams
#15 LT Branden Albert
#17 LT Gosder Cherilus
#19 RT Jeff Otah
#21 LT Sam Baker
#26 LT Duane Brown
None in the 2nd round

2007
#3 LT Joe Thomas
#5 LT Levi Brown
#28 LT Joe Staley
#42 LT Tony Ugoh

2006
#4 LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson
#39 RT Winston Justice
#47 Moved to OG Daryn Colledge


So looking at the numbers players drafted with the sole purpose of playing RT are avg out to roughly #30. Granted this isn't an exact science but the numbers are a bit interesting. With the class of OT's this year I'm starting to think a trade back would actually be wise....the question is how many of these guys could be graded as NFL LT's and which of the "dedicated" RT's could drop?

Russell Okung
Trent Williams
Anthony Davis
Bryan Bulaga
Bruce Campbell
Charles Brown
Vladimir Ducasse
Mike Iupati (could play RT)

For s**ts and giggles here is what trading back could net us:

#19 1st and 3rd and 7th ish
#20 1st and 3rd and 7th ish
#21 1st and 3rd =
#22 1st and 3rd =
#23 1st and 3rd (we send 4th)
#24 1st and 2nd (we send 4th)
#25 1st and 2nd (we send 4th or 5th and 7th ish)
#26 1st and 2nd (we send 5th and 7th ish)
#27 1st and 2nd (we send 7th ish)
#28 1st and 2nd =
Looks good justin.

I really see a run on OL in rd 1-2.

More so than any other position
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Looks good justin.

I really see a run on OL in rd 1-2.

More so than any other position

Yeah, we could be SOL!!!
One team's RT is another team's LT.

Typically RTs don't go as high as LTs for obvious reasons. However if a team has a big hole on their OL like we do at RT and you see a guy who could play either position you take him even if it may seem statistically early for a RT.

This is the case this year with a guy like Trent Williams. I personally think he has the makings of a pretty good RT but some team could grade him out as a LT and take him earlier than expected. Ditto Davis and Bulaga.

Personally my dream scenario is Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati with our first 2 picks to finally get the OL to a place where it should be to field a successful offense.
  • smileyman
  • Info N/A
NIce work.

Just an FYI--Branden Albert was a guard when he was drafted. He got moved to LT after he was drafted.

One other thing to keep in mind--In the last 10 years the Niners have only drafted two offensive linemen in the first round. In the last 30 years 4, since 1950 only 5 (1950 was the first year draft records were kept).
[ Edited by smileyman on Jan 30, 2010 at 1:15 AM ]
Originally posted by smileyman:
NIce work.

Just an FYI--Branden Albert was a guard when he was drafted. He got moved to LT after he was drafted.

One other thing to keep in mind--In the last 10 years the Niners have only drafted two offensive linemen in the first round. In the last 30 years 4, since 1950 only 5 (1950 was the first year draft records were kept).

That I know, Monroe was keeping him at OG.
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,090
Great list, jreff. Thanks alot, man.
[ Edited by mayo63 on Jan 30, 2010 at 6:54 AM ]
Great list. A move back mite be possible for us.
Look at the speed those boys came off the board in 2008!
Originally posted by English:
Look at the speed those boys came off the board in 2008!

Seriously. 8 O-Linemen in the first 26 picks. Insane.
Originally posted by English:
Look at the speed those boys came off the board in 2008!

Cherilus coming off the board and 17 really caused 3 teams to move UP for OT's. Once the 3rd OT comes off the board this year I think we will see the same thing, some teams look to move up to grab the next 2 (which will likely be either Williams, Bulaga and/or Campbell) which in turn may give us an option to trade back from 16/17 should we choose. We just got to hope we are the 3rd team to take that OT or else Miami, Denver and Jacksonville will be fielding phone calls from teams looking to jump us.
Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
Originally posted by English:
Look at the speed those boys came off the board in 2008!

Seriously. 8 O-Linemen in the first 26 picks. Insane.

And what did those eight pics turn into? 2 Pro Bowlers and 6 starters. The only bad pick that I see in that bunch is Cherilus. Not a bad return for the teams that made the picks.
After the combine, Iupati and Spiller may both be gone by #13. Then we probably should trade down one of the round 1 picks.
Remember guys teams were looking to draft LT's early. I know some teams may have Williams pegged as a LT but I think the general opinion will be RT for him. His withdrawal from the Senior Bowl in my opinion further elevates the fact that he is a RT only.
Man, that's a lot of work - Thanks!

Good points. I'd like us to pick the best OT we can and Iupati [sorry if I mis-spell. last name] If they are gone by our picks it would seem like a good move to trade back.